Charts: Global Entertainment and Media Trends

Global revenue of entertainment and media companies will grow at a 3.9% annual compound rate to reach $3.4 trillion by 2028. That’s according to PwC’s report, “Global Entertainment & Media Outlook 2024-28,” which covers 11 revenue segments across 53 countries and territories.

Per PwC, revenue from advertising and connectivity (i.e., internet access) is growing faster than consumer spending (purchases of games, events, apps). The study anticipates that advertising revenue will surpass $1 trillion by 2026 and double from 2020 levels by 2028.

In addition, the study shows growth in online ads, as revenue from internet advertising worldwide in 2028 will almost double that of 2021.

Driven mainly by Asia-Pacific users, the gaming industry continues to be one of the fastest-growing sectors, with revenue projected to exceed $300 billion by 2028.

Google’s Cookie Reversal Raises Questions

Google announced on July 22, 2024, that it would not remove third-party tracking cookies from the Chrome browser after all, leaving many advertisers to wonder, “What now?”

“We are proposing an updated approach [to tracking cookie depreciation] that elevates user choice,” wrote Anthony Chavez, Google’s Privacy Sandbox vice president. “Instead of deprecating third-party cookies, we would introduce a new experience in Chrome that lets people make an informed choice that applies across their web browsing.”

Google announced its “new path” for cookies on July 22.

Privacy advocates have warned for decades about the tiny bits of code we lovingly call cookies since, when placed in a web browser, they could track individuals across websites, Google search queries, location, and other behaviors.

Yet third-party or tracking cookies have legitimate uses for cross-site personalization, targeted advertising, and website analytics.

Regardless, all this data collection means Google, Criteo, and others know loads about nearly every person online, making “internet privacy” a thin veneer.

Thus Google has promised for roughly five years to remove tracking cookies, but no more. The reversal has advertisers and industry observers questioning the future.

Here are five aspects to monitor.

Will Regulators Approve?

Google’s plan to keep cookies and its Privacy Sandbox must still pass regulatory muster.

Simon Poulton, executive vice president of innovation and growth at Tinuiti, a marketing firm, wrote to Practical Ecommerce in an email that regulatory approval was the “elephant in the room” when discussing Google’s decision.

Google faces scrutiny from governmental agencies interested in consumer privacy while also negotiating with agencies that rely on cookies and fear their elimination enhances Google’s own ad platform.

This latter group includes the U.K.’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), which is investigating Google’s Privacy Sandbox. The CMA was concerned that ad targeting via the Sandbox (Topics API, for example) extended Google’s dominance in the digital advertising industry.

Referring to a briefing Tinuiti released in April of this year, Poulton wrote, “As part of our coverage, we noted that privacy and competition are in direct, insoluble tension.”

“We went so far as to suggest that Google would be unable to move on an absolute deprecation (and transition to the Privacy Sandbox) under the current circumstances,” continued Poulton.

Given Google’s announcement, this seems to have been the case.

For its part, the CMA noted on its website, “The CMA will now work closely with the [Information Commissioner’s Office] to carefully consider Google’s new approach to Privacy Sandbox.”

Thus Chrome, third-party cookies, and the Privacy Sandbox can likely proceed as Google’s Chavez proposes, but there’s no certainty.

Does Google Benefit?

The CMA and others have argued that Google’s Privacy Sandbox would have strengthened the company’s position in the ad business since targeting would rely on its technology.

“The fear is that Google’s new [Sandbox] framework might limit competition by making it more challenging for other companies to operate effectively in the ad space,” wrote Piotr Korzeniowski, CEO of Piwik Pro, an analytics platform, in an email.

But others argue that tracking cookies fuel Google’s existing ad business.

So which is it?

“Google is in a precarious position to own the most popular browser, advertising network, and many more ‘most popular’ digital products and services,” wrote Korzeniowski.

Hence Google’s decision to keep cookies and still move forward with the Privacy Sandbox presumably wasn’t so much about what benefited its own ad business as taking a balanced approach for its entire company, customers, and regulators.

Industry Preference?

Assume that all the various regulatory bodies, whether focused on privacy or competition, approve of Google’s “new path for Privacy Sandbox on the web.” Will industry participants such as Tinuiti and Piwik Pro choose cookies or the Sandbox?

“As privacy awareness increases, more users are expected to opt out of cookies, especially with more stringent regulations, clearer opt-out mechanisms, and rising consumer awareness of the topic,” Korzeniowski added. “Google’s plan to integrate the consent mechanism into browsers is a bold move. However, they did not plan this without ensuring it wouldn’t significantly impact their data collection and advertising business. I bet they will keep opt-ins above 70% because of how they design the mechanism.”

Walled Gardens

Third-party tracking differs from first-party. For example, TikTok does not require a tracking cookie to know what interests visitors; it has first-party data.

Tinuiti’s Poulton wrote, “Keep in mind that [third-party] cookies have no bearing on search or social (or any walled garden) tracking or advertising performance. So, while this is big news, I constantly remind folks that many advertisers on Meta, Amazon, and Google-owned platforms would not see any impact from [third-party] cookie deprecation, anyway.”

One could argue that even those platforms benefit from third-party data, but Instagram and Facebook advertisers, for example, are not likely impacted much in the near term.

However, eliminating tracking cookies would disrupt many others, such as services that place ads on publisher websites, email messages, and streaming videos.

Advertisers

The final takeaway from Google’s cookie announcement is that digital advertising is changing: We could have both cookies and the Sandbox. What worked five years ago may not now or in the future.

What won’t change is the value of first-party data. That’s what advertisers should focus on in this new advertising era.

Google’s Cookie Delay Reveals Industry Fears

Google announced last month that it would delay the end of third-party cookies in Chrome until early 2025, as regulators in the United Kingdom raised concerns that alternatives could give the search giant an unfair advertising advantage.

The delay could also indicate that the advertising industry is not ready for the end of tracking cookies in the world’s most popular browser.

Regulatory Concern

The U.K.’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) prompted Google to delay the demise of tracking cookies because it was concerned that the company’s Privacy Sandbox — the replacement for third-party cookies in Chome — would give Google Ads a competitive advantage.

The delay is supposed to allow the folks at Google time to work with the CMA and meet multiple demands, including:

  • No competitive advantage to Google’s own ad products and services versus competitors.
  • More collaboration. Google must release a cookie alternative that benefits the entire advertising ecosystem.
  • Data protection to ensure privacy advocates are satisfied with Google’s Privacy Sandbox.
  • Testing and reporting. Google will provide evidence that its cookie alternatives are effective and don’t negatively impact its competitors.

In its published response, Google stated, “We recognize that there are ongoing challenges related to reconciling divergent feedback from the industry, regulators, and developers, and will continue to engage closely with the entire ecosystem. It’s also critical that the CMA has sufficient time to review all evidence, including results from industry tests, which the CMA has asked market participants to provide by the end of June. Given both of these significant considerations, we will not complete third-party cookie deprecation during the second half of Q4.”

Privacy Challenge

In addition to regulatory concerns, privacy advocates had asked Google to delay the release of its Privacy Sandbox, believing it’s not much better than third-party cookies.

Some fear the Privacy Sandbox — despite collecting less information about individuals and offering alternative ways to deliver targeted advertising — enables Chrome to act like an ad server and concentrates data storage within the Google ecosystem.

Delaying the release is meant to address those concerns.

Advertising

Google announced in 2022 that it would eliminate tracking cookies in Chrome. Other web browsers have discontinued those cookies without much fanfare, but Chome is different.

According to Statista, Chome had a dominant 65.7% share of the worldwide browser market in February 2024.

Thus much of digital advertising will change when Chrome finally removes tracking cookies, impacting multiple sectors:

  • Chrome users. Third-party cookies facilitate ad targeting — showing folks relevant and interesting ads.
  • Ad networks. Companies in the business of delivering ads, including Meta, Criteo, and similar, will “lose signal,” meaning they will have relatively less behavioral data for ad targeting.
  • Advertisers. Signal loss likely means ads become less effective and more expensive, similar to the effect of Apple removing tracking in iOS 14.5 in 2021.

The Privacy Sandbox was supposed to address these advertising concerns, delivering relevant ads to benefit users and advertisers.

Hence this most recent delay — prompted by regulators (focused on competition) and privacy advocates — may indicate that the advertising industry is not ready to give up tracking cookies.

For example, while some complain that the Privacy Sandbox retains too much data in the Google ecosystem, alternatives have the same problem. Examples include Liveramp’s Authenticated Traffic Solution and Criteo’s Commerce Media Platform, both of which are advertising platforms. Even Unified ID 2.0, the open-source alpha-numeric identifier, gets much of its support from The Trade Desk, a platform for advertisers.

Better Alternatives?

Bottom line, the advertising industry faces a complex challenge in transitioning away from third-party cookies, a system deeply embedded in digital advertising.

As they explore replacements such as the Privacy Sandbox, Google and other stakeholders confront the technical and competitive implications and the industry’s reluctance to adapt to fundamentally different alternatives.

While better for user privacy, these new technologies introduce complexity and fragmentation that could lead to less effective advertising outcomes and steep implementation hurdles.

The ongoing delays signify a market cautious about relinquishing a tried-and-tested mechanism without clear and proven alternatives.