Job titles of the future: Wildlife first responder

Grizzly bears have made such a comeback across eastern Montana that in 2017, the state hired its first-ever prairie-based grizzly manager: wildlife biologist Wesley Sarmento. 

For some seven years, Sarmento worked to keep both the bears, which are still listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act, and the humans, who are sprawling into once-wild spaces, out of trouble. Based in the small city of Conrad, population 2,553, he acted sort of like a first responder, trying to defuse potentially dangerous situations. He even got caught in some himself—which is why, before he left the role to pursue a PhD, he turned to drones to get the job done. 

The bear necessities

Sarmento was studying mountain goats in Glacier National Park when he first started working with bears. To better understand how goats responded to the apex predator, he dressed up in a bear costume once a week for over three years. 

When he later started as grizzly manager, he often drove long distances to push bears away from farms. Bears are drawn to spilled or leaking grains, and an open silo quickly turns into a buffet. Sarmento would typically arrive armed with a shotgun, cracker shells, and bear spray, but after he narrowly escaped getting mauled one day, he knew he had to pivot.

“In that moment,” he says, “I was like, I am gonna get myself killed.”

A bird’s-eye view

Sarmento first turned to two Airedale dogs, a breed known for deterring bears on farms, but the dogs were easily sidetracked. Meanwhile, drones were slowly becoming more common tools for biologists in a range of activities, including counting birds and mapping habitats.

He first took one into the field in 2022, when a grizzly mom and two cubs were found rummaging around in a silo outside of town. The drone’s infrared sensors helped him quickly find their location, and he used the aircraft’s sound to drive them away from the property. (Researchers suspect bears instinctively dislike the whir of blades because it sounds like a swarm of bees.) “The whole thing was so clean and controlled,” he says. “And I did it all from the safety of my truck.”

Since then, the flying machine that Sarmento bought for $4,000—a fairly simple model with a thermal camera and 30 minutes of battery life—has shown its potential for detecting grizzlies in perilous terrain he’d otherwise have to approach on foot, like dense brush or hard-to-reach river bottoms.

A new technological foundation

Now studying wildlife ecology at the University of Montana, Sarmento is hoping to design a drone campus police can use to deter black bears from school grounds. In the future, he hopes, AI image recognition might be broadly integrated into his wildlife management work—maybe even helping drones identify bears and autonomously divert them from high-traffic areas.

All this helps keep bears from learning behaviors that lead to conflict with people—which typically ends badly for the bear and is occasionally fatal for humans.

“The out-of-the-box technology doesn’t exist yet, but the hope is to keep exploring applications,” he says. “Drones are the next frontier.” 

Emily Senkosky is a writer with a master’s degree in environmental science journalism from the University of Montana.

Is fake grass a bad idea? The AstroTurf wars are far from over.

A rare warm spell in January melted enough snow to uncover Cornell University’s newest athletic field, built for field hockey. Months before, it was a meadow teeming with birds and bugs; now it’s more than an acre of synthetic turf roughly the color of the felt on a pool table, almost digital in its saturation. The day I walked up the hill from a nearby creek to take a look, the metal fence around the field was locked, but someone had left a hallway-size piece of the new simulated grass outside the perimeter. It was bristly and tough, but springy and squeaky under my booted feet. I could imagine running around on it, but it would definitely take some getting used to.

My companion on this walk seemed even less favorably disposed to the thought. Yayoi Koizumi, a local environmental advocate, has been fighting synthetic-turf projects at Cornell since 2023. A petite woman dressed that day in a faded plum coat over a teal vest, with a scarf the colors of salmon, slate, and sunflowers, Koizumi compulsively picked up plastic trash as we walked: a red Solo cup, a polyethylene Dunkin’ container, a five-foot vinyl panel. She couldn’t bear to leave this stuff behind to fragment into microplastic bits—as she believes the new field will. “They’ve covered the living ground in plastic,” she said. “It’s really maddening.” 

The new pitch is one part of a $70 million plan to build more recreational space at the university. As of this spring, Cornell plans to install something like a quarter million square feet of synthetic grass—what people have colloquially called “astroturf” since the middle of the last century. University PR says it will be an important part of a “health-promoting campus” that is “supportive of holistic individual, social, and ecological well-being.” Koizumi runs an anti-plastic environmental group called Zero Waste Ithaca, which says that’s mostly nonsense.

This fight is more than just the usual town-versus-gown tension. Synthetic turf used to be the stuff of professional sports arenas and maybe a suburban yard or two; today communities across the United States are debating whether to lay it down on playgrounds, parks, and dog runs. Proponents say it’s cheaper and hardier than grass, requiring less water, fertilizer, and maintenance—and that it offers a uniform surface for more hours and more days of the year than grass fields, a competitive advantage for athletes and schools hoping for a more robust athletic program.

But while new generations of synthetic turf look and feel better than that mid-century stuff, it’s still just plastic. Some evidence suggests it sheds bits that endanger users and the environment, and that it contains PFAS “forever chemicals”—per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, which are linked to a host of health issues. The padding within the plastic grass is usually made from shredded tires, which might also pose health risks. And plastic fields need to be replaced about once a decade, creating lots of waste.

Yet people are buying a lot of the stuff. In 2001, Americans installed just over 7 million square meters of synthetic turf, just shy of 11,000 metric tons. By 2024, that number was 79 million square meters—enough to carpet all of Manhattan and then some, almost 120,000 metric tons. Synthetic turf covers 20,000 athletic fields and tens of thousands of parks, playgrounds, and backyards. And the US is just 20% of the global market. 

Where real estate is limited and demand for athletic facilities is high, artificial turf is tempting. “It all comes down to land and demand.”

Frank Rossi, professor of turf science, Cornell

Those increases worry folks who study microplastics and environmental pollution. Any actual risk is hard to parse; the plastic-making industry insists that synthetic fields are safe if properly installed, but lots of researchers think that isn’t so. “They’re very expensive, they contain toxic chemicals, and they put kids at unnecessary risk,” says Philip Landrigan, a Boston College epidemiologist who has studied environmental toxins like lead and microplastics.

But at Cornell, where real estate is limited and demand for athletic facilities is high, synthetic turf was a tempting option. As Frank Rossi, a professor of turf science at Cornell, told me: “It all comes down to land and demand.”


In 1965, Houston’s new, domed base­ball stadium was an icon of space-age design. But the Astrodome had a problem: the sun. Deep in the heart of Texas, it shined brightly through the Astrodome’s skylights—so much so that players kept missing fly balls. So the club painted over the skylights. Denied sunlight, the grass in the outfield withered and died.

A replacement was already in the works. In the late 1950s a Ford Foundation–funded educational laboratory determined that a soft, grasslike surface material would give city kids more places to play outside and had prevailed upon the Monsanto corporation to invent one. The result was clipped blades of nylon stuck to a rubber base, which the company called ChemGrass. Down it went into Houston’s outfield, where it got a new, buzzier name: AstroTurf.

Workers lay artificial turf at the Astrodome in Houston on July 13, 1966. Developed by Monsanto, the material was originally known as ChemGrass but was later renamed AstroTurf after the stadium.
AP PHOTO/ED KOLENOVSKY, FILE

That first generation of simulated lawn was brittle and hard, but quality has improved. Today, there are a few competing products, but they’re all made by extruding a petroleum-based polymer—that’s plastic—through tiny holes and then stitching or fusing the resulting fibers to a carpetlike bottom. That gets attached to some kind of padding, also plastic. In the 1970s the industry started layering that over infill, usually sand; by the 1990s, “third generation” synthetic turf had switched to softer fibers made of polyethylene. Beneath that, they added infill that combined sand and a soft, cheap shredded rubber made from discarded automobile tires, which pile up by the hundreds of millions every year. This “crumb rubber” provides padding and fills spaces between the blades and the backing.

In the early 1980s, nearly half the professional baseball and football fields in the US had synthetic turf. But many players didn’t like it. It got hotter than real grass, gave the ball different action, and seemed to be increasing the rate of injuries among athletes. Since the 1990s, most pro sports have shifted back toward grass—water and maintenance costs pale in comparison to the importance of keeping players happy or sparing them the risk of injury. 

But at the same time, more universities and high schools are buying the artificial stuff. The advantages are clear, especially in places where it rains either too much or not enough. A natural-grass field is usable for a little more than 800 hours a year at the most, spread across just eight months in the cooler, wetter northern US. An artificial-turf field can see 3,000 hours of activity per year. For sports like lacrosse, which begins in late winter, this makes artificial turf more appealing. Most lacrosse pitches are now synthetic. So are almost all field hockey pitches; players like the way the even, springy turf makes the ball bounce.

Furthermore, supporters say synthetic turf needs less maintenance than grass, saving money and resources. That’s not always true; workers still have to decompact the playing surface and hose it off to remove bird poop or cool it down. Sometimes the infill needs topping up. But real grass allows less playing time, and because grass athletic fields often need to be rotated to avoid damage, synthetic ground cover can require less space. Hence the market’s explosive growth in the 21st century.


The city and town of Ithaca—two separate political entities with overlapping jurisdiction over Cornell construction projects—held multiple public meetings about the university’s new synthetic fields: the field hockey pitch and a complex called the Meinig Fieldhouse. Koizumi’s group turned up in force, and a few folks who worked at Cornell came to oppose the idea too—submitting pages of citations and studies on the risks of synthetic grass.

At two of those meetings, dozens of Cornell athletes turned out to support the turf. Representatives of the university and the athletic department declined to speak with me for this story, citing an ongoing lawsuit from Zero Waste Ithaca. But before that, Nicki Moore, Cornell’s director of athletics, told a local newspaper that demand from campus groups and sports teams meant the fields were constantly overcrowded. “Activities get bumped later and later, and sometimes varsity teams won’t start practicing until 10 at night, you know?” Moore told the paper. “Availability of all-weather space should normalize scheduling a great deal.”

That argument wasn’t universally convincing. “It’s a bad idea, but that’s from the environmental perspective,” says Marianne Krasny, director of Cornell’s Civic Ecology Lab and one of the speakers at those hearings. “Obviously the athletic department thinks it’s a great idea.”

square patch of artificial turf

GETTY IMAGES

Members of Cornell on Fire, a climate action group with members from both the university and the town, joined in opposing the use of artificial turf, citing the fossil-fuel origins of the stuff. They described the nominal support of the project from student athletes as inauthentic, representing not grassroots support but, yes, an astroturf campaign. 

Sorting out the actual science here isn’t simple. Over time, the plastic that synthetic turf is made of sheds bits of itself into the environment. In one study, published in 2023 in the journal Environmental Pollution, researchers found that 15% of the medium-­size and microplastic particles in a river and the Mediterranean Sea outside Barcelona, Spain, came from artificial turf, mostly in the form of tiny green fibers. Back in 2020, the European Chemicals Agency estimated that infill material from artificial-­turf fields in the European Union was contributing 16,000 metric tons of microplastics to the environment each year—38% of all annual microplastic pollution. Most of that came from the crumb rubber infill, which Europe now plans to ban by 2031. 

This pollution worries the Cornell activists. Ithaca is famous for scenic gorges and waterways. The new field hockey pitch is uphill from a local creek that empties into Cayuga Lake, the longest of the Finger Lakes and the source of drinking water for over 40,000 people.

And it’s not just the plastic bits. When newer generations of synthetic turf switched to durable high-density polyethylene, the new material gunked up the extruders used in the manufacturing process. So turf makers started adding fluorinated polymers—a type of PFAS. Some of these environmentally persistent “forever chemicals” cause cancer, disrupt the endocrine system, or lead to other health problems. Research in several different labs has found PFAS in many types of plastic grass.

But the key to assessing the threat here is exposure. Heather Whitehead, an analytical chemist then at the University of Notre Dame, found PFAS in synthetic turf at levels around five parts per billion—but estimated it’d be in water running off the fields at three parts per trillion; for context, the US Environmental Protection Agency’s legal drinking-water limit on one of the most widespread and dangerous PFAS chemicals is four parts per trillion. “These chemicals will wash off in small amounts for long periods of time,” says Graham Peaslee, Whitehead’s advisor and an emeritus nuclear physicist who studies PFAS concentrations. “I think it’s reason enough not to have artificial turf.”

This gets confusing, though. There are over 16,000 different types of PFAS, few have been well studied, and different ­companies use different manufacturing techniques. Companies represented by the Synthetic Turf Council now “use zero intentionally added PFAS,” says Melanie Taylor, the group’s president. “This means that as the field rolls off the assembly line, there are zero PFAS-formulated materials present.”

Some researchers are skeptical of the industry’s assurances. They’re hard to confirm, especially because there are a lot of ways to test for PFAS. The type of synthetic turf going onto the new field hockey pitch at Cornell is called GreenFields TX; the university had a sample tested using an EPA method that looks for 40 different PFAS compounds. It came back negative for all of them. The local activists countered that the test doesn’t detect the specific types they’re most concerned about, and in 2025 they paid for three more tests on newly purchased synthetic turf. Two clearly found fluorine—the F in “PFAS”—and one identified two distinct PFAS compounds. (The company that makes GreenFields TX, TenCate, declined to comment, citing ongoing litigation.)

PFAS isn’t the only potential problem. There’s also the crumb rubber made from tires. A billion tires get thrown out every year worldwide, and if they aren’t recycled they sit in giant piles that make great habitats for rats and mosquitoes; they also occasionally catch fire. Lots of the tires that go into turf are made of styrene-­butadiene rubber, or SBR. In bulk, that’s bad. Butadiene is a carcinogen that causes leukemia, and fumes from styrene can cause nervous system damage. SBR also contains high levels of lead.

But how much of that comes out of synthetic-­turf infill? Again, that’s hotly debated. Researchers around the world have published suggestive studies finding potentially dangerous levels of heavy metals like zinc and lead in synthetic turf, with possible health risks to people using the fields. But a review of many of the relevant studies on turf and crumb rubber from Canada’s National Collaborating Centre for Environmental Health determined that most well-conducted health risk assessments over the last decade found exposures below levels of concern for cancer and certain other diseases. A 2017 report by the European Chemicals Agency—the same people who found all those microplastics in the environment—“found no reason to advise people against playing sports on synthetic turf containing recycled rubber granules as infill material.” And a multiyear study from the EPA, published in 2024, found much the same thing—although the researchers said that levels of certain synthetic chemicals were elevated inside places that used indoor artificial turf. They also stressed that the paper was not a risk assessment. 

The problem is, the kinds of cancers these chemicals can cause may take decades to show up. Long-term studies haven’t been done yet. All the evidence available so far is anecdotal—like a series for the Philadelphia Inquirer that linked the deaths of six former Phillies players from a rare type of brain cancer called glioblastoma to years spent playing on PFAS-containing artificial turf. That’d be about three times the usual rate of glioblastoma among adult men, but the report comes with a lot of cautions—small sample size, lots of other potential causes, no way to establish causation.

Synthetic turf has one negative that no one really disputes: It gets very hot in the sun—as hot as 150 °F (66 °C). This can actually burn players, so they often want to avoid using a field on very hot days.

A field hockey player from Cornell University passes the ball during a game played on artificial turf at Bryant University in 2025. Cornell’s own turf field will be ready for the 2026 season.
GETTY IMAGES

Athletes playing on artificial turf also have a higher rate of foot and ankle injuries, and elite-level football players seem to be more predisposed to knee injuries on those surfaces. But other studies have found rates of knee and hip injury to be roughly comparable on artificial and natural turf—a point the landscape architect working on the Cornell project made in the information packet the university sent to the city. Athletic departments and city parks departments say that the material’s upsides make it worthwhile, given that there’s no conclusive proof of harm.

Back in Ithaca, Cornell hired an environmental consulting firm called Haley & Aldrich to assess the evidence. The company concluded that none of the university’s proposed installations of artificial turf would have a negative environmental impact. People from Cornell on Fire and Zero Waste Ithaca told me they didn’t trust the firm’s findings; representatives from Haley & Aldrich declined to comment.

Longtime activists say that as global consumption of fossil fuels declines, petrochemical companies are desperate to find other markets. That means plastics. “There’s a big push to shift more petrochemicals into plastic products for an end market,” says Jeff Gearhart, a consumer product researcher at the Ecology Center. “Industry people, with a vested interest in petrochemicals, are looking to expand and build out alternative markets for this stuff.”

All that and more went before the decision-­makers in Ithaca. In September 2024, the City of Ithaca Planning Board unanimously issued a judgment that the Meinig Fieldhouse would not have a significant environmental impact and thus would not need to complete a full environmental impact assessment. Six months later, the town made the same determination for the field hockey pitch.

Zero Waste Ithaca sued in New York’s supreme court, which ruled against the group. Koizumi and lawyers from Pace University’s Environmental Litigation Clinic have appealed. She says she’s still hopeful the court might agree that Ithaca authorities made a mistake by not requiring an environmental impact statement from the college. “We have the science on our side,” she says.


Ithaca is a pretty rarefied place, an Ivy League university town. But these same tensions—potential long-term environmental and public health consequences versus the financial and maintenance concerns of the now—are pitting worried citizens against their representatives and city agencies around the country. 

New York City has 286 municipal synthetic-­turf fields, with more under construction. In Inwood, the northernmost neighborhood in Manhattan, two fields were approved via Zoom meetings during the pandemic, and Massimo Strino, a local artist who makes kaleidoscopes, says he found out only when he saw signs announcing the work on one of his daily walks in Inwood Hill Park, along the Hudson River. He joined a campaign against the plan, gathering more than 4,300 signatures. “I was canvassing every weekend,” Strino says. “You can count on one hand, literally, the number of people who said they were in favor.” 

But that doesn’t include the group that pushed for one of those fields in the first place: Uptown Soccer, which offers free and low-cost lessons and games to 1,000 kids a year, mostly from underserved immigrant families. “It was turning an unused community space into a usable space,” says David Sykes, the group’s executive director. “That trumped the sort of abstract concerns about the environmental impacts. I’m not an expert in artificial turf, but the parks department assured me that there was no risk of health effects.”

Artificial turf doesn’t go away. “You’re going to be paying to get rid of it. Somebody will have to take it to a dump, where it will sit for a thousand years.”

Graham Peaslee, emeritus nuclear physicist studying PFAS concentrations, University of Notre Dame

New York City councilmember Christopher Marte disagrees. He has introduced a bill to ban new artificial turf from being installed in parks, and he hopes the proposal will be taken up by the Parks Committee this spring. Last session, the bill had 10 cosponsors—that’s a lot. Marte says he expects resistance from lobbyists, but there’s precedent. The city of Boston banned artificial turf in 2022.  

Upstate, in a Rochester suburb called Brighton, the school district included synthetic-­turf baseball and softball diamonds in a wide-ranging February 2024 capital improvement proposition. The measure passed. In a public meeting in November 2025, the school board acknowledged the intent to use synthetic grass—or, as concerned parents had it, “to rip up a quarter ­million square feet of this open space and replace it with artificial turf,” says David Masur, executive director of the environmental group PennEnvironment, whose kids attend school in Brighton. Parents and community members mobilized against the plan, further angered when contractors also cut down a beloved 200-year-old tree. School superintendent Kevin McGowan says it’s too late to change course. Masur has been working to oppose the plan nevertheless—he says school boards are making consequential decisions about turf without sharing information or getting input, even though these fields can cost millions of dollars of taxpayer money.

In short, the fights can get tense. On Martha’s Vineyard, in Massachusetts, a meeting about plans to install an artificial field at a local high school had to be ended early amid verbal abuse. A staffer for the local board of health who voiced concern about PFAS in the turf quit the board after discovering bullet casings in her tote bag, she said, which she perceived as a death threat. After an eight-year fight, the board eventually banned artificial turf altogether. 


What happens next? Well, outdoor artificial turf lasts only eight to 12 years before it needs to be taken up and replaced. The Synthetic Turf Council says it’s at least partially recyclable and cites a company called BestPLUS Plastic Lumber as a purveyor of products made from recycled turf. The company says one of its products, a liner called GreenBoard that artificial turf can be nailed into, is at least 40% recycled from fake grass. Joseph Sadlier, vice president and general manager of plastics recycling at BestPLUS, says the company recycles over 10 million pounds annually. 

Yet the material is piling up. In 2021, a Danish company called Re-Match announced plans to open a recycling plant in Pennsylvania and began amassing thousands of tons of used plastic turf in three locations. The company filed for bankruptcy in 2025.

In Ithaca, university representatives told planning boards that it would be possible to recycle the old artificial turf they ripped out to make way for the Meinig Fieldhouse. That didn’t happen. An anonymous local activist tracked the old rolls to a hauling company a half-hour’s drive south of campus and shared pictures of them sitting on the lot, where they stayed for months. It’s unclear what their ultimate fate will be.

That’s the real problem: Artificial turf just doesn’t go away. “You’re going to be paying to get rid of it,” says Peaslee, the PFAS expert. “Somebody will have to take it to a dump, where it will sit for a thousand years.” At minimum, real grass is a net carbon sink, even including installation and maintenance. Synthetic turf releases greenhouse gases. One life-­cycle analysis of a 2.2-acre synthetic field in Toronto determined that it would emit 55 metric tons of carbon dioxide over a decade. Plastic fields need less water to maintain, but it takes water to make plastic, and natural grass lets rainwater seep into the ground. Synthetic turf sends most of it away as runoff.

It’s a boggling set of issues to factor into a decision. Rossi, the Cornell turf scientist, says he can understand why a school in the northern United States might go plastic, even when it cares about its students’ health. “It was the best bad option,” he says. Concerns about microplastics and PFAS are “significant issues we have not fully addressed.” And they need to be. 

Douglas Main is a journalist and former senior editor and writer at National Geographic.

Desalination technology, by the numbers

When I started digging into desalination technology for a new story, I couldn’t help but obsess over the numbers.

I’d known on some level that desalination—pulling salt out of seawater to produce fresh water—was an increasingly important technology, especially in water-stressed regions including the Middle East. But just how much some countries rely on desalination, and how big a business it is, still surprised me.

For more on how this crucial water infrastructure is increasingly vulnerable during the war in Iran, check out my latest story. Here, though, let’s look at the state of desalination technology, by the numbers.

Desalination produces 77% of all fresh water and 99% of drinking water in Qatar.

Globally, we rely on desalination for just 1% of fresh-water withdrawals. But for some countries in the Middle East, and particularly for the Gulf Cooperation Council countries (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Oman), it’s crucial.

Qatar, home to over 3 million people, is one of the most staggering examples, with nearly all its drinking water supplies coming from desalination. But many major cities in the region couldn’t exist without the technology. There are no permanent rivers on the Arabian Peninsula, and supplies of fresh water are incredibly limited, so countries rely on facilities that can take in seawater and pull out the salt and other impurities.

The Middle East is home to just 6% of the world’s population and over 27% of its desalination facilities.

The region has historically been water-scarce, and that trend is only continuing as climate change pushes temperatures higher and changes rainfall patterns.

Of the 17,910 desalination facilities that are operational globally, 4,897 are located in the Middle East, according to a 2026 study in npj Clean Water. The technology supplies not only municipal water used by homes and businesses, but also industries including agriculture, manufacturing, and increasingly data centers.

One massive desalination plant in Saudi Arabia produces over 1 million cubic meters of fresh water per day.

The Ras Al-Khair water and power plant in Eastern Province, Saudi Arabia, is one of a growing number of gigantic plants that output upwards of a million cubic meters of water each day. That amount of water can meet the needs of millions of people in Riyadh City. Producing it takes a lot of power—the attached power plant has a capacity of 2.4 gigawatts.

While this plant is just one of thousands across the region, it’s an example of a growing trend: The average size of a desalination plant is about 10 times what it was 15 years ago, according to data from the International Energy Agency. Communities are increasingly turning to larger plants, which can produce water more efficiently than smaller ones.

Between 2024 and 2028, the Middle East’s desalination capacity could grow by over 40%.

Desalination is only going to be more crucial for life in the Middle East. The region is expected to spend over $25 billion on capital expenses for desalination facilities between 2024 and 2028, according to the 2026 npj Clean Water study. More massive plants are expected to come online in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Egypt during that time.

All this growth could consume a lot of electricity. Between growth of the technology generally and the move toward plants that use electricity rather than fossil fuels, desalination could add 190 terawatt-hours of electricity demand globally by 2035, according to IEA data. That’s the equivalent of about 60 million households.

This article is from The Spark, MIT Technology Review’s weekly climate newsletter. To receive it in your inbox every Wednesday, sign up here

Desalination plants in the Middle East are increasingly vulnerable

<div data-chronoton-summary="

  • Water as a weapon: Desalination plants supplying drinking water to millions across the Middle East have become targets in the escalating US-Iran conflict, with plants in Iran, Bahrain, and Kuwait already reporting damage.
  • Gulf states are most at risk: While Iran gets just 3% of its municipal fresh water from desalination, Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait depend on it for over 90% of their drinking water—making them far more exposed to attacks.
  • Bigger plants mean bigger consequences: The average desalination facility is now ten times larger than it was 15 years ago. Taking one offline could impact the water supplies of many people in the area.
  • The danger doesn’t end with the war: Climate change, oil spills, and algae blooms pose growing threats to these facilities—and experts warn the conflict may teach future actors just how effectively water infrastructure can be weaponized.

” data-chronoton-post-id=”1135235″ data-chronoton-expand-collapse=”1″ data-chronoton-analytics-enabled=”1″>

MIT Technology Review Explains: Let our writers untangle the complex, messy world of technology to help you understand what’s coming next. You can read more from the series here.

As the conflict in Iran has escalated, a crucial resource is under fire: the desalination technology that supplies water across much of the region.

In early March, Iran’s foreign minister accused the US of attacking a desalination plant on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting the water supply to nearly 30 villages. (The US denied responsibility.) In the weeks since, both Bahrain and Kuwait have reported damage to desalination plants and blamed Iran, though Iran also denied responsibility.

In late March, President Donald Trump threatened the destruction of “possibly all desalinization plants” in Iran if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened. Since then, he’s escalated his threats against Iran, warning of plans to attack other crucial civilian infrastructure like power plants and bridges.

Countries in the Middle East, particularly the Gulf states, rely on the technology to turn salt water into fresh water for farming, industry, and—crucially—drinking. The mounting attacks and threats to date highlight just how vital the industry is to the region—a situation made even more precarious by rising temperatures and extreme weather driven by climate change.

Right now, 83% of the Middle East is under extremely high water stress, says Liz Saccoccia, a water security associate at the World Resources Institute. Future projections suggest that’s going to increase to about 100% by 2050, she adds: “This is a continuing trend, and it’s getting worse, not better.”

Here’s a look at desalination technology in the Middle East and what wartime threats to the critical infrastructure could mean for people in the region. 

A vital resource

Desalination technology has helped provide water supplies in the Middle East since the early 20th century and became widespread in the 1960s and 1970s.

There are two major categories of desalination plants. Thermal plants use heat to evaporate water, leaving salt and other impurities behind. The vapor can then be condensed into usable fresh water. The alternative is membrane-based technology like reverse osmosis, which pushes water through membranes that have tiny pores—so small that salt can’t get through.

Early desalination plants in the Middle East were the first type, burning fossil fuels to evaporate water, leaving the salt behind. This technique is incredibly energy-intensive, and over time, processes that rely on filters became the dominant choice.

Membrane technologies have made up essentially all new desalination capacity in recent years; the last major thermal plant built in the Gulf came online in 2018. Many reverse osmosis plants still rely on fossil fuels, but they’re more efficient. Since then, membrane technologies have added more than 15 million cubic meters of daily capacity—enough to supply water to millions of people.

Capacity has expanded quickly in recent years; between 2006 and 2024, countries across the Middle East collectively spent over $50 billion building and upgrading desalination facilities, and nearly that much operating them.

Today, there are nearly 5,000 desalination plants operational across the Middle East.

And looking ahead, growth is continuing. Between 2024 and 2028, daily capacity is expected to grow from about 29 million cubic meters to 41 million cubic meters.

Uneven vulnerabilities

Some countries rely on the technology more than others. Iran, for example, uses desalination for about 3% of its municipal fresh water. The country has access to groundwater and some surface water, including rivers, though these resources are being stretched thin by agriculture and extreme drought.

Other nations in the region, particularly the Gulf countries (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Oman), have much more limited water resources and rely heavily on desalination. Across these six nations, all but the UAE get more than half their drinking water from desalination, and for Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait the figure is more than 90%.

“The Gulf countries are much, much more vulnerable to attacks on their desalination plants than Iran is,” says David Michel, a senior associate in the global food and water security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

There are thousands of desalination facilities across the region, so the system wouldn’t collapse if a small number were taken offline, Michel says. However, in recent years there’s been a trend toward larger, more centralized plants.

The average desalination plant is about 10 times larger than it was 15 years ago, according to data from the International Energy Agency. The largest desalination plants today can produce 1 million cubic meters of water daily, enough for hundreds of thousands of people. Taking one or more of these massive facilities offline could have a significant effect on the system, Michel says.

Escalating threats

Desalination facilities are quite linear, meaning there are multiple steps and pieces of equipment that work in sequence—and the failure of a component in that chain can take an entire facility down. Attacks on water inlets, transportation networks, and power supplies can also disrupt the system, Michel says. 

During the Gulf War in 1991, Iraqi forces pumped oil into the gulf, contaminating the water and shutting down desalination plants in Kuwait

The facilities are also generally located close to other targets in this conflict. Desalination is incredibly energy intensive, so about three-quarters of facilities in the region are next to power plants. Trump has repeatedly threatened power plants in Iran. In response, Iran’s military has said that if civilian targets are hit, the country will respond with strikes that are “much more devastating and widespread.” Other governments and organizations, including the United Nations, the European Union, and the Red Cross, have broadly condemned threats to infrastructure as illegal. 

But war isn’t the only danger facing these plants, even if it is the most immediate. Some studies have suggested that global warming could strengthen cyclones in the region, and these extreme weather events could force shutdowns or damage equipment.

Water pollution could also cause shutdowns. Oil spills, whether accidental or intentional, as in the case of the Gulf War, can  wreak havoc. And in 2009, a red algae bloom closed desalination plants in Oman and the United Arab Emirates for weeks. The algae fouled membranes and blocked the plants from being able to take water in from the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

Desalination facilities could become more resilient to threats in the future, and they may need to as their importance continues to grow. 

There’s increasing interest in running desalination facilities at least partially on solar power, which could help reduce dependence on the oil that powers most facilities today. The Hassyan seawater desalination project in the UAE, currently under construction, would be the largest reverse osmosis plant in the world to operate solely with renewable energy. 

Another way to increase resilience is for countries to build up more strategic water storage to meet demand. Qatar recently issued new policies that aim to improve management and storage of desalinated water, for example. Countries could also work together to invest in shared infrastructure and policies that help strengthen the water supply through the region. 

Preparedness, resilience, and cooperation will be key for the Middle East broadly as critical infrastructure, including the water supply, is increasingly under threat. 

“The longer the conflict goes on, the more likely we’ll see significant water infrastructure damage,” says Ginger Matchett, an assistant director at the Atlantic Council. “What worries me is that after this war ends, some of the lessons will show how water can be weaponized more strategically than previously imagined.” 

Fuel prices are soaring. Plastic could be next.

As the war in Iran continues to engulf the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, one of the most visible global economic ripple effects has been fossil-fuel prices. In particular, you can’t get away from news about the price of gasoline, which just topped an average of $4 a gallon in the US, its highest level since 2022.

But looking ahead, further consequences for the global economy could be looming in plastics. Plastics are made using petrochemicals, and the supply chain impacts of the oil bottleneck near Iran are starting to build up. 

Plastic production accounts for roughly 5% of global carbon dioxide emissions today. And our current moment shows just how embedded oil and gas products are in our lives. It goes far beyond their use for energy. 

As I write this, I’m wearing clothes that contain plastic fibers, typing on a plastic keyboard, and looking through the plastic lenses of my glasses. It’s hard to imagine what our world looks like without plastic. And in some ways, moving away from fossil-derived plastic could prove even more complicated than decarbonizing our energy system. 

Crude oil prices have been on a roller-coaster in recent weeks, and prices have recently topped $100 a barrel.

Crude oil contains a huge range of hydrocarbons, and it’s typically refined by putting it through a distillation unit that separates the raw material into different fractions according to their boiling point. Those fractions then go on to be further processed into everything from jet fuel to asphalt binder. We’ve already seen the price spikes for some materials pulled out of crude oil, like gasoline and jet fuel.

Let’s zoom in on another component, naphtha. It can be added to gasoline and jet fuel to improve performance. It can also be used as a solvent or as a raw material to make plastics.

The Middle East currently accounts for about 20% of global naphtha production­ and supplies about 40% of the market in Asia, where prices are already up by 50% over the last month.

We’re starting to see these effects trickle down already. The price of polypropylene (which is made from naphtha and used for food containers, bottle caps, and even automotive parts) is climbing, especially in Asia.  

Typically, manufacturers have a bit of stock built up, but that’ll be exhausted soon, likely in the coming weeks. The largest supplier of water bottles in India recently announced that it would raise prices by 11% after its packaging costs went up by over 70%, according to reporting from Reuters. Toys could be more expensive this holiday season as manufacturers grapple with supply chain concerns.

Americans will likely feel these ripples especially hard if disruptions continue. The average US resident used over 250 kilograms of new plastics in 2019, according to a 2022 report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. That’s an absolutely massive number—the global average is just 60 kilograms.

The effects of higher prices for both fuels and feedstocks could compound and multiply, and alternatives aren’t widely available. Bio-based plastics made with materials like plant sugars exist, but they still make up a vanishingly tiny portion of the market. As of 2025, global plastics production totaled over 431 million metric tons per year. Bio-based and bio-degradable plastics made up about 0.5% of that, a share that could reach 1% by 2030.

Bio-based plastics are much more expensive than their fossil-derived counterparts. And many are made using agricultural raw materials, so scaling them up too much could be harmful for the environment and might compete with other industries like food production.

Recycling isn’t the easy answer either. Mechanical recycling is the current standard method used for materials like the plastics that make up water bottles and disposable coffee cups. But that degrades the materials over time, so they can’t be used infinitely. Chemical recycling has its own host of issues—the facilities that do it can be highly polluting, and today plastics that go into advanced recycling plants largely don’t actually go into new plastics.

There’s been a lot of talk in recent weeks about how this energy crisis is going to push the world more toward renewable energy. Solar panels, electric vehicles, and batteries could suddenly become more attractive as we face the drastic consequences of a disruption in the global fossil-fuel supply.

But when it comes to plastic, the future looks far more complicated. Even though the plastics industry is facing much the same disruptions as the energy sector, there aren’t the same obvious alternatives available for a transition. Our lives are tied up in plastic, with uses ranging from the essential (like medical equipment) to the mundane (my to-go coffee cup). Soon, our economy could feel the effects of just how much we rely on fossil-derived plastics, and how hard it’s going to be to replace them. 

This article is from The Spark, MIT Technology Review’s weekly climate newsletter. To receive it in your inbox every Wednesday, sign up here

The snow gods: How a couple of ski bums built the internet’s best weather app

The best snow-forecasting app for skiers and snowboarders isn’t from any of the federally funded weather services. Nor from any of the big-name brands. It’s an independent app startup that leverages government data, its own AI models, and decades of alpine-life experience to offer better snow (and soon avalanche) predictions than anything else out there.

Skiers in the know follow OpenSnow and won’t bother heading to the mountains—from Alpine Meadows to Mont Blanc, Crested Butte to Killington—unless this small team of trusted weathered men tells them to. (And yes, they’re all men.) The app has made microcelebrities of its forecasters, who sift through and analyze reams of data to write “Daily Snow” reports for locations throughout the world.

“I’m F-list famous,” OpenSnow founding partner and forecaster Bryan Allegretto says with a laugh. “Not even D-list.” 

The app has proved especially vital this year, which has been one of the weirder winters on record. The US West saw very little daily snow, despite an intense storm cycle that led to one of the deadliest avalanches in history. That storm was followed by one of the fastest melts in memory, and several resorts in California are already shutting down for the season. Meanwhile, in the East, the ongoing snowfall has offered a rare gift: a deep and seemingly endless winter.. 

MIT Technology Review caught up with Allegretto, better known as BA, in the Tahoe mountains to talk about the weather, AI, avalanches, and how a little weather app became the closest thing powder-hounds have to a crystal ball: a daily dump of the freshest, most decipherable, and most micro-accurate forecasts in the biz. And how two once-broke ski bums—Allegretto and his Colorado counterpart, CEO Joel Gratz— managed to bootstrap a business and turn an email list of 37 into a cult following half a million strong. 

This interview has been edited for clarity and accuracy. 

You grew up in New Jersey. Middle of the pack as far as snowy states. What were your winters like as a kid?

I was always obsessed with weather. Especially severe weather. Nor’easters. There was the blizzard of ’89, I believe, that hit the East Coast hard—dropped two to three feet of snow, which was a lot for the Jersey Shore. My dad worked for the highway authority, so he had tools other than the evening news. He was in charge of calling out the snowplows whenever it snowed, so I just remember chasing storms with my dad. I wasn’t allowed to ride in the snowplows. I’d watch them. When I got older, I was the one shoveling the neighbors’ driveways. I just liked being out there. In it. In college, I used to go around and shovel all the girls’ sidewalks. That was fun. 

When did you start skiing?

We would cut school and take a bus to go skiing, unbeknownst to our parents. It was the ’90s, and the surfers decided snowboarding would be fun, so the local surf shop started  running a bus and all these surfers would show up and hop the bus to Hunter Mountain. We’d drive to the Poconos, go night skiing, turn around. It wasn’t uncommon for me in high school to get in the car by myself, either —and just drive. Me, my dog, my backpack. I’d sleep in gas stations and ski. Storm-chasing around the Northeast. 

What were you really chasing, you think?

Natural highs. Happiness. I’ve always been a soul-searcher. I grew up in a crazy house situation, a broken home. My dad left. My mom became a drug addict. I just wanted to be gone. I’m the oldest. I was always trying to help my mom and make sure she was okay. No one was telling me to go to school and have a career. I just wanted to do something that fulfills me.

How’d you go about figuring out what that was? 

For me, to go to school was a big task, given where I was coming out of. There wasn’t any money. I could get grants and scholarships because my mom was so poor. I wanted to go to Penn State but didn’t have the grades. I ended up at Kean, a public university in New Jersey. It had a meteorology program. We got to go to New York City, to NBC, and practiced on the green screen. In meteorology school, I started thinking: How do I work in the ski and snowboard industry and use weather at the same time? I went to Rowan [University] for business, in South Jersey, and in between moved to Hawaii to surf and spent a year teaching snowboarding. My goal the whole time was to not work in a career I hated.

I imagine you weren’t like most meteorology students. 

Us punk rockers, skaters, snowboarders—we were a little different than the typical meteorology nerds. I was the radical storm chaser. A big personality. I still am.

You didn’t quite fit the traditional weatherman mold.

Back then, there were no smartphones or social media. If you were a meteorologist, you either worked in a cubicle for the government or at an insurance company assessing weather risk.  Or you were on the local news. That wasn’t my thing. They didn’t want Grizzly Adams up there with his big beard.

Beards belong in the mountains?

Meteorologists live in cities because that’s where the jobs are. They don’t live in small mountain towns.  That’s what was missing in the industry. When I moved to Tahoe, in 2006, I realized nobody had any trust in the weather forecasts. It was more like a “We’ll believe it when we see it” old-fashioned mentality. If you’re a forecaster in flat areas, you just look at the weather model and regurgitate the news. Weathermen in Sacramento or Reno didn’t give a crap about the ski resorts! They’d just say “We’ll see three feet above 6,000 feet” and go on to the next segment. And skiers were like: “Wait a minute. Is it going to be windy at the top?” I thought: Let’s home in and give skiers what they’re looking for.

So you were living in Tahoe, skiing and forecasting?

I was working in the office at a resort, snowboarding, and doing weather on the side. I’d get up at 4 a.m. and do it before my 9 a.m. day job. Forecasting, figuring out: How the heck do these storms interact with these mountains? I started emailing everyone in the office what I’d see coming, and people kept saying “Add me! Add me!”  Eventually, resorts around Tahoe started asking to use my forecasts.

How were you actually forecasting, though? 

The NOAA, the GFS [Global Forecasting System], the Canadian model, the Euro model, German, Japanese—all these governments make these weather models to forecast the weather. And share it. Anyone can access it. But you can’t just look at a weather model and go, Yep, that’s what’s going to happen. That’s not how it works in the mountains. It’s way harder. You can’t rely on model data. It’s low-res, forecasting for a grid area that’s too big. It can’t understand what’s going on. It’s going to generalize the weather. You can try that, but you’re going to be wrong. A lot of people are going to stop listening. I was able to forecast more accurately than most people because I was living there; I could fix a lot of these errors. Around 2007, I started my own website, Tahoe Weather Discussion.

Bryan Allegretto (right) with Joel Gratz (center) and Gratz' wife.
Bryan Allegretto (right) on the lift with OpenSnow CEO Joel Gratz and Gratz’ wife Lauren.
COURTESY OF BRYAN ALLEGRETTO

Snazzy.

Meanwhile, I heard about this guy Joel out in Boulder, Colorado. People were telling us about each other, saying: “You guys are doing the same thing!” He was sleeping on his friend’s couch, running a site called Colorado Powder Forecast. And then there was Evan [Thayer, who would later join the company], in Utah. I think his website was called Wasatch Forecast. 

Great minds!

He actually grew up outside Philly, only about an hour from me. We both were obsessed with storms and snow and moved west to the mountains and started similar websites. We would’ve been best friends as kids! Anyway, Joel called me in 2010 and was like, “Hey. I’m building this site, forecasting skiing in ski states.” And wanted me to join. He knew I had big traffic. He was like, “Let’s do it together, not against each other.” I asked, “What’s the pay?” He said, Zero. Give me your company. 

And you just said: Yeah, sounds good?

I just really trusted him. He’d asked Evan too—but Evan was like, Give you my site and my traffic for free?? No, I built this.

A normal response.

I was the knucklehead that was like, okay. Evan was still single. I already had a wife and two kids. I’d just had my son. I was working two jobs. I was so overwhelmed. So busy with my day job, as an account manager at the Ritz at North Star. Vail had just bought them and we all thought we were going to lose our jobs. My site was struggling. I was desperate for somebody to do it with. I think I thought it was a good opportunity. I was scared, though. For sure.  

That was 15 years ago. How’d OpenSnow work in the old days? 

We were just using our brains. That’s how it started: with us using our brains.Looking at all the weather models—all the data from the government models and airplanes, satellites, balloons. A million places. Building spreadsheets and fixing all the errors in the forecast models. We’d take the data and reconfigure it—appropriate it for the mountains. It was all manual for a really long time.

How manual? 

It was old-school. All the resorts had snowfall reports on their sites, and I was the one hand-keying it in: “three to six inches.” That was me on the back end, typing it in every single morning for every single ski resort. It’d take me hours

And then?

Around 2018, we built our own weather model to do what we were doing. We called it METEOS. It’s an acronym—I can’t even remember what it stood for!  METEOS was just us using our brains and our experience to create formulas. It automated everything and allowed us to create a grid across the whole world and forecast for any GPS point. It took all this data, ingested it, fixed some of it, and then spit out a forecast for any location. In the world. 

Were you guys making any money? 

It was crap in the beginning. Advertising-based. We stole Eric Strassburger from The Denver Post —he doubled our ad revenue in his first year full-time with us. Still, Google Ads had chopped our ad rates in half; it wasn’t a good long-term strategy to rely just on ads. We had to pivot to plan B so we didn’t go out of business. 

Subscriptions.

When all the newspapers started charging to read articles, Joel was like: We are meteorologists writing columns every day. Journalism weather is not sustainable! We need to be a weather site. We need to be a weather app. 

What happened when you moved from ads to subscriptions? 

The money took off.  We could quit our day jobs and work full time on OpenSnow. The company exploded. We were like: Are people gonna really pay for this? They did! Although they could still access the majority of the site for free. 

At the end of 2021, you put in a pay wall?

That’s when we panicked! We’re gonna lose 90% of our customers! But 10% will stay loyal and pay. Since the beginning, there’s been only two times our traffic went down: the paywall and covid. Otherwise, every year it’s gone up. People were like, Okay I can’t live without this.

I admit, I’m one of those people. So is my editor. Any other weather app is useless for skiers.

When it comes to ski towns, everyone uses OpenSnow. When the Tahoe avalanche happened, we were up early on search-and-rescue calls, helping the rescuers with forecasts. We’re now the official lead forecast providers for Ski California. Ski Utah. Head of Forecasting for National Ski Patrol. Professional Ski Instructors of America. US Collegiate Ski & Snowboard Association. Dozens of destinations and ski resorts. Joel doesn’t like to talk about it publicly, but our renewals and retention and open rates blow away the industry standards. 

I bet. OpenSnow is like a benevolent cult. 

People connect with a small company with underground roots. We’re independent. Fourteen full-time, plus seasonal. About half have meteorology backgrounds, from bachelor’s to doctoral degrees. Our very first employee was Sam Collentine,  a meteorology student in Boulder, who started as an intern in 2012 and is now our COO and does everything. 

Sounds like employees and subscribers sign on and just … stay.

Everyone stays! Our cofounder Andrew Murray, Joel’s friend and OpenSnow’s web designer, left around 2021. But yeah, people feel like they know us. They’ve been reading me in Tahoe with their coffee for 20 years! I get recognized everywhere I go. For example, I broke my binding, and went into a ski shop and asked if I could demo. And the guy was like, ARE YOU BA? Just take it! Sounds fun—until you just want to have dinner with your family, or buy a glove. Joel gets the same thing—people make Joel shrines in the slopes that look like Catholic candles.

You guys are like modern-day snow gods. Gods of snow.

People are weird.

How weird?

Someone once sent me a photo, saying: “Look, my friend dressed up as you for Halloween!” People are always inviting me over to dinner, to PlumpJack with Jonny Moseley. I guess they want to hang out with the “Who’s who of Tahoe.” There was an executive from Pixar who had me to his multimillion-dollar home on the west shore of Lake Tahoe. He had a photo of me over the fireplace in the bathroom. I thought: That’s weird, he has a photo of me over the fireplace. What was even weirder, though: It was autographed. I’ve never autographed a photo in my life! This guy just signed it—himself. I didn’t say anything. I just left.

Do you get a lot of hate mail? Mean DMs? 

Thousands. People think I can make it snow. I think they think I’m to blame when it doesn’t. The other day, someone messaged me on Instagram with a picture I’d posted over California of the high-pressure map—somebody had shared it, and wrote “Fuck Bryan Allegretto” over the high pressure.

Hilarious.

People were yelling at me during covid: You’re encouraging people to go out skiing! It wasn’t March 202o, it was January 2022. I’ve since deleted my personal social media. I never wanted to be in the spotlight. That’s the whole reason signing off my forecasts with “BA” became a thing— I didn’t want to use my full name. I just do it because it’s good for the company. Joel realized years ago that people come to us for forecasts —and forecasters. That’s why we still have forecasters. Even though AI can do what we’re doing now.

Is AI doing what you do now? 

We were using METEOS until this season. In December, we launched PEAKS. We built our own machine-learning model. The AI is taking what we were doing—and doing it everywhere, faster. The whole world instantly, in minutes. It can go back and actually ingest decades of government data—estimated weather conditions over the entire US from 1979 to 2021—and correct the errors. 

What makes it so accurate?

Before PEAKS, it wasn’t very specific. The data used to be what Joel calls “blobby”—like giant blobs, just big splotches of color over a mountain range. It’s like, if you take a pen and press into a piece of paper, the ink will spill out. The AI is like if you just tap the paper. A dot versus a blot. Now we can know how much it will snow, say, in the parking lot at Palisades and how much at the summit. It’s less blobby, more rigid and defined. 

Defined how?

All weather models output forecasts on a grid. The gridpoints are essentially averaged data over the grid box. So a model with a 25-kilometer grid resolution averages data over 25 kilometers, or around 16 miles. This is far too large an area, especially in mountainous terrains where a few miles can make a massive difference in experienced conditions. The AI is downscaling the models into smaller and smaller grid boxes. We are able to train a model to transform lower-resolution data from the same period into this high-resolution “ground truth” data. Then the model can generalize this training to global real-time downscaling. PEAKS is learning wind patterns, thermal gradients, terrain, and weather patterns and connecting all these factors to learn how to transition from coarse resolution into high, three-kilometer resolution—leading to more precise forecasts. We’ve basically taught the AI how to forecast like us. Except 50% more accurate. Now, when I wake up at 4 a.m., PEAKS has already done it.

So … then what are you doing at four in the morning?

Oh, I’ll still do the forecasting. I like to double-check it—but I don’t really need to. PEAKS has allowed me to spend more time on writing. Now instead of spending four hours forecasting and then rushing to write it,  I’ve been able to make my forecasts more interesting, more entertaining. Yeah, AI could probably write it—but I want to. It’s all about the personal connection. 

How did last year’s federal funding cuts for the NWS and NOAA affect your business? Are you guys concerned about that going forward?

We had those discussions when it first happened. In forecasting, you still need humans: to launch the weather balloon, staff the weather stations, collect the initial data. Some people in our office panicked—they had spouses or friends getting laid off. We were wondering if we’d have less data coming in, if it’d make the models less accurate. But the backlash in the weather community was swift. I think they were like, There are important things you can’t cut. It was pretty short-term. Are we worried going forward?  No, not as long as the data keeps coming in! We won’t survive without the government publishing data.

What’s next? 

We recently bought a small company called StormNet that tracks severe weather, probability of lightning, hail, tornadoes. We just launched it. Used to be like, “The storm is an hour away.” Now we can say, “In seven days there might be a tornado here.” And next winter, we’re working on a feature that can help forecast avalanches using AI. Right now, it’s still manual—people going out testing the snow layers. Forecasting is limited. This wouldn’t replace the avalanche centers, but it will be able to look at everything, including slope angle and previous weather and current conditions, and forecast further out, give people more advance—and location specific—warning. Help alert the public sooner.

Help save lives. 

I talked to one of the guys who left the Frog Lake huts on Sunday, before the storm. Before the group that was caught in the Tahoe avalanche. He told me: “People are always like, Oh, it’s never as bad as they say. But I read OpenSnow. I could tell by the language you were using, that we should get the heck out of there. I wanted no part of that.” We don’t hype storms. Or sugarcoat. Our only incentive is to be accurate.

True that it was the biggest storm in Tahoe in four decades?

In 1982, we got 118 inches over five days, and this one was 111 inches—two storms of similar size created the same level tragedy. It’s too much, too fast. It was snowing three to four inches an hour. That was the fastest we’ve seen. I don’t know what’s the bigger story—the fact that we’ve had the biggest storm in over four decades or the fact that all that snow disappeared in five days.

Do you worry about the future of OpenSnow given, you know, the future of snow?

We’ve had the second-warmest March in at least 45 years. We’re just getting these wild swings now. The seasonal snow averages are almost the same, but we’re seeing more variability than we did in the 1980s and ’90s. We’re either getting really cold and really warm, or really dry and really wet.

Bad years can affect our business, for sure.  It’s certainly affecting the industry—I know Vail, Alterra took big hits this year. Usually we’re okay, because if it’s dry in Tahoe, it’s snowing in Utah or Colorado. Our three biggest markets. I don’t recall a season where the whole, entire West was in the same boat. It’s been the worst year in the West. Yet our traffic keeps going up. Everything is up. The East Coast had a good year, Japan, BC. We’re slowly expanding in those places. It happens to be the first year in 15 years we started marketing. Marketing works!

Amazing.

Joel and I have had this repeat conversation for years—we just had it again two weeks ago: “Can you believe what we’ve done? This was never the goal.” I’m still blown away daily. We’ve never borrowed from investors. No series A, B, C. We’ve gotten offers to sell, but no. We’re still having too much fun. All I know is: Joel and I didn’t come from money. We’ve never chased money or fame, and got both. I think it’s because we never chased them. We’ve always chased the joy of skiing and forecasting powder, and doing that for other people.We were just trying to create something that made us happy.

Are high gas prices good news for EVs? It’s complicated.

I live in a dense city with plentiful public transportation options and limited parking, so I don’t own a car. I’m often utterly clueless about the current price of gasoline.

But as the conflict in Iran has escalated, fossil-fuel prices have been on a roller-coaster, and I’ve started paying attention. In the US, average gas prices are $3.98 a gallon as of March 25, up from under $3 before the war started.

Online there’s been what almost looks like cheerleading about this volatility from some folks, including EV owners—some of the social media posts and op-eds have read as nearly gleeful. The subtext (or even the text) is “I told you so.” 

Don’t get me wrong—this could be an opportunity for EVs to make headway around the world. But there are plenty of reasons that even the carless among us should be concerned about a sustained rise in fossil-fuel prices.

Historically, this is exactly the sort of moment that’s pushed people to reevaluate how they get around. During the oil crisis of the 1970s, Americans switched to smaller, more efficient cars in droves. It was a major opportunity for Japanese automakers, whose vehicles tended to fit this mold better than those produced by their US counterparts.

We’re already seeing early signs that people are interested in going electric. One US-based online car marketplace said that search traffic for EVs was up 20% following the initial attack on Iran. For more popular models like the Tesla Model Y, traffic nearly doubled.

And the interest is global. One car dealership outside London said it’s struggling to keep up with demand and is sending staff to buy more EVs at auction, according to Reuters. Another in Manila told Bloomberg that it got a month’s worth of orders in two weeks.

The timing here is really interesting in the US in particular, because we’re about to see a wave of more affordable used EVs hit the market. Three years ago, a leasing boom started with the Inflation Reduction Act, which included incentives for EVs, including leases. About 300,000 such leases are set to expire this year, and many of those vehicles could come up for sale, increasing the available supply of affordable used EVs.

The interest is there, but what would it really take for more drivers to make the switch?

Nice, round numbers do tend to get people’s attention. Some point to $4 per gallon (which the national average is quite close to right now). At that price, the total cost of ownership for an EV is comfortably lower than the cost for a gas-powered car, even with higher electricity prices, according to data from the energy consultancy BloombergNEF.

Then again, maybe that won’t quite do the trick: One survey from Cox Automotive found that most US consumers would consider switching to an EV or hybrid if gas prices hit $6 per gallon.

But this is also the second big incident of fossil-fuel volatility in the last five years, which could make consumers more ready to make the switch, as Elaine Buckberg, a senior fellow at Harvard, told Bloomberg. (The first was in the summer of 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine.)

I’m a climate and energy reporter, and I care about addressing climate change. So I’m always happy to hear about people shifting to EVs or any other option that helps cut down on greenhouse-gas emissions.

But one aspect that I think is getting lost here is that sustained high fossil-fuel prices will be bad for even those of us who are untethered from the burdens of vehicle ownership. Fuel cost makes up between 50% and 60% of the cost of shipping goods overseas. Fertilizer production today requires natural gas, which has gotten significantly more expensive since the war began, particularly in Europe.

Jet fuel prices have basically doubled in the last month, according to the International Air Transport Association. Since those prices account for something like a quarter of an airline’s operating cost, that could soon make air travel—and anything that’s shipped by plane—more expensive.

And if all this adds up to an economic downturn, it’s bad for big projects that need financing (even wind and solar farms) and for people who want to borrow money to buy a home or a car (including an EV).

If you’re in the market for a car, maybe this uncertainty is what you needed to consider electric. But until we’re able to truly decarbonize not only our transportation but the rest of our economy, even this carless reporter is going to be worried about high gas prices.

This article is from The Spark, MIT Technology Review’s weekly climate newsletter. To receive it in your inbox every Wednesday, sign up here

Why this battery company is pivoting to AI

Qichao Hu doesn’t mince words about how he sees the state of the battery industry. “Almost every Western battery company has either died or is going to die. It’s kind of the reality,” he says.

Hu is the CEO of SES AI, a Massachusetts-based battery company. It once had aims of making huge amounts of advanced lithium metal batteries for major industries like electric vehicles—but now the company is placing its bets on AI materials discovery.

Hu sees the pivot as an essential one. “It’s just not possible for a Western company to build a sustainable business,” he says. The company is still making some batteries, but only for smaller markets like drones rather than those that would require higher volumes, like EVs. The new focus is the company’s battery materials discovery platform—which it can either license to other battery companies or use to develop materials to sell. 

Some leading US EV battery companies have folded in recent months, and others, like SES AI, are making dramatic changes in strategy. This shift in who’s building batteries and where they’re doing it could shape the future geopolitics of energy. 

The work that would eventually evolve into SES AI began at MIT, where Hu completed his graduate research. His battery work was aimed at applications in oil and gas exploration. The industry uses sensors that go deep underground, where temperatures can top 120 °C (about 250 °F). The team hoped to develop a battery that could withstand those high temperatures and last longer on a single charge. 

The chosen technology was a solid polymer lithium metal battery. These cells use lithium metal for their anode and a polymer for their electrolyte (the material that ions move through in a battery cell). Together, these components can increase the energy density of a cell significantly, relative to the lithium-ion batteries that are common in personal devices and EVs today. (Lithium-ion batteries generally use a graphite material for their anode and a liquid for the electrolyte.)

That solid-state battery technology became the foundation of Solid Energy, a startup Hu founded that spun out from MIT in 2012 and raised its first private investment in 2013.

The team eventually realized that underground oil exploration was a small market, so after several years of operation they began to focus on electric vehicles, which were starting to come into the mainstream. After the team tweaked the chemistry to work better at lower temperatures, the company built its first pilot facility in Massachusetts and eventually another facility in Shanghai.

By 2021, the battery industry was booming, Hu recalls, and EVs were the hottest industry to be in. There was a ton of interest in next-generation battery technology from major automakers at the time, and Solid Energy started developing technology with GM, Hyundai, and Honda.

Larger vehicles, like SUVs and trucks, seemed like a good fit for next-generation batteries, Hu says. Massive vehicles like the ones Americans like to drive would need lighter batteries so they could have a reasonable range without being prohibitively heavy.

The company also shifted its chemistry focus, and in 2022 it announced a battery with a silicon anode rather than a lithium metal one. That shift could help make the battery easier to manufacture.

Since then, growth in the EV market has slowed, at least in the US, partly because of major pullbacks in funding from the Trump administration. EV tax credits for drivers, a key piece of support pushing Americans toward electric options, ended in late 2025. With the market for large electric cars in trouble, Hu says, “now we have to look at every market.”  

The AI materials discovery platform on which it’s pinning many of its hopes is called Molecular Universe. The company seeks not only to provide its software to other battery companies but also to identify new battery materials and either license them or sell them to those companies.

vials of electrolytes inside a machine at the synthesis foundry

COURTESY OF SES AI

The platform has already identified six new electrolyte materials, according to the company. Hu says one is an additive that could help improve the lifetime of batteries with silicon anodes. 

One of the challenges with silicon anodes is that they tend to swell a lot during use, which can cause physical damage and prevent efficient charging and discharging. To address the problem, the industry typically uses a material called fluoroethylene carbonate (FEC), which can help form an elastic film on the anode so the battery can still charge effectively. That additive can degrade at high temperatures, though, producing gases that can harm a battery’s lifetime. The SES platform identified a compound that works like FEC but doesn’t release those gases.

The company’s long history and deep battery knowledge could help make its platform a useful tool, Hu says. He sees the actual model as less crucial than SES’s domain expertise and data from years of making and testing batteries. 

“By not actually making the physical battery, we’re actually able to scale and then generate revenue faster,” he says. 

But some experts are skeptical about the near-term prospects for AI materials discovery to revive the industry. “New materials development, as much as we thought that was what people wanted (and, frankly, it should be what the cell makers want)—I don’t know that that seems to be the real linchpin of the battery industry’s progress,” says Kara Rodby, a technical principal at Volta Energy Technologies, a venture capital firm that focuses on the energy storage industry.

Investors are pulling back, and a slowdown in public support is making things difficult for some parts of the battery industry, she adds: “I don’t know that the ability to discover any new material is going to unlock anything new for the battery industry at this point in time.”

Why the world doesn’t recycle more nuclear waste

The prospect of making trash useful is always fascinating to me. Whether it’s used batteries, solar panels, or spent nuclear fuel, getting use out of something destined for disposal sounds like a win all around.

In nuclear energy, figuring out what to do with waste has always been a challenge, since the material needs to be dealt with carefully. In a new story, I dug into the question of what advanced nuclear reactors will mean for spent fuel waste. New coolants, fuels, and logistics popping up in companies’ designs could require some adjustments.

My reporting also helped answer another question that was lingering in my brain: Why doesn’t the world recycle more nuclear waste?

There’s still a lot of usable uranium in spent nuclear fuel when it’s pulled out of reactors. Getting more use out of the spent fuel could cut down on both waste and the need to mine new material, but the process is costly, complicated, and not 100% effective.

France has the largest and most established reprocessing program in the world today. The La Hague plant in northern France has the capacity to reprocess about 1,700 tons of spent fuel each year.

The plant uses a process called PUREX—spent fuel is dissolved in acid and goes through chemical processing to pull out the uranium and plutonium, which are then separated. The plutonium is used to make mixed oxide (or MOX) fuel, which can be used in a mixture to fuel conventional nuclear reactors or alone as fuel in some specialized designs. And the uranium can go on to be re-enriched and used in standard low-enriched uranium fuel.

Reprocessing can cut down on the total volume of high-level nuclear waste that needs special handling, says Allison Macfarlane, director of the school of public policy and global affairs at the University of British Columbia and a former chair of the NRC.

But there’s a bit of a catch. Today, the gold standard for permanent nuclear waste storage is a geological repository, a deep underground storage facility. Heat, not volume, is often the key limiting factor for how much material can be socked away in those facilities, depending on the specific repository. And spent MOX fuel gives off much more heat than conventional spent fuel, Macfarlane says. So even if there’s a smaller volume, the material might take up as much, or even more, space in a repository. 

It’s also tricky to make this a true loop: The uranium that’s produced from reprocessing is contaminated with isotopes that can be difficult to separate, Macfarlane says. Today, France essentially saves the uranium for possible future enrichment as a sort of strategic stockpile. (Historically, it’s also exported some to Russia for enrichment.) And while MOX fuel can be used in some reactors, once it is spent, it is technically challenging to reprocess. So today, the best case is that fuel could be used twice, not infinitely.

“Every responsible analyst understands that no matter what, no matter how good your recycling process is, you’re still going to need a geological repository in the end,” says Edwin Lyman, director of nuclear power safety at the Union of Concerned Scientists.

Reprocessing also has its downsides, Lyman adds. One risk comes from the plutonium made in the process, which can be used in nuclear weapons. France handles that risk with high security, and by quickly turning that plutonium into the MOX fuel product.

Reprocessing is also quite expensive, and uranium supply isn’t meaningfully limited. “There’s no economic benefit to reprocessing at this time,” says Paul Dickman, a former Department of Energy and NRC official.

France bears the higher cost that comes with reprocessing largely for political reasons, he says. The country doesn’t have uranium resources, importing its supply today. Reprocessing helps ensure its energy independence: “They’re willing to pay a national security premium.”

Japan is currently constructing a spent-fuel reprocessing facility, though delays have plagued the project, which started construction in 1993 and was originally supposed to start up by 1997. Now the facility is expected to open by 2027.

It’s possible that new technologies could make reprocessing more appealing, and agencies like the Department of Energy should do longer-term research on advanced separation technologies, Dickman says. Some companies working on advanced reactors say they plan to use alternative reprocessing methods in their fuel cycle.

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What do new nuclear reactors mean for waste?

MIT Technology Review Explains: Let our writers untangle the complex, messy world of technology to help you understand what’s coming next. You can read more from the series here.

The way the world currently deals with nuclear waste is as creative as it is varied: Drown it in water pools, encase it in steel, bury it hundreds of meters underground. 

These methods are how the nuclear industry safely manages the 10,000 metric tons of spent fuel waste that reactors produce as they churn out 10% of the world’s electricity every year. But as new nuclear designs emerge, they could introduce new wrinkles for nuclear waste management.  

Most operating reactors at nuclear power plants today follow a similar basic blueprint: They’re fueled with low-enriched uranium and cooled with water, and they’re mostly gigantic, sited at central power plants. But a large menu of new reactor designs that could come online in the next few years will likely require tweaks to ensure that existing systems can handle their waste.

“There’s no one answer about whether this panoply of new reactors and fuel types are going to make waste management any easier,” says Edwin Lyman, director of nuclear power safety at the Union of Concerned Scientists.

A nuclear disposal playbook

Nuclear waste can be roughly split into two categories: low-level waste, like contaminated protection equipment from hospitals and research centers, and high-level waste, which requires more careful handling. 

The vast majority by volume is low-level waste. This material can be stored onsite and often, once its radioactivity has decayed enough, largely handled like regular trash (with some additional precautions). High-level waste, on the other hand, is much more radioactive and often quite hot. This second category consists largely of spent fuel, a combination of materials including uranium-235, which is the fissile portion of nuclear fuel—the part that can sustain the chain reaction required for nuclear power plants to work. The material also contains fission products—the sometimes radioactive by-products of the splitting atoms that release energy.

Many experts agree that the best long-term solution for spent fuel and other high-level nuclear waste is a geologic repository—essentially, a very deep, very carefully managed hole in the ground. Finland is the furthest along with plans to build one, and its site on the southwest coast of the country should be operational this year.

The US designated a site for a geological repository in the 1980s, but political conflict has stalled progress. So today, used fuel in the US is stored onsite at operational and shuttered nuclear power plants. Once it’s removed from a reactor, it’s typically placed into wet storage, essentially submerged in pools of water to cool down. The material can then be put in protective cement and steel containers called dry casks, a stage known as dry storage.

Experts say the industry won’t need to entirely rewrite this playbook for the new reactor designs.  

“The way we’re going to manage spent fuel is going to be largely the same,” says Erik Cothron, manager of research and strategy at the Nuclear Innovation Alliance, a nonprofit think tank focused on the nuclear industry. “I don’t stay up late at night worried about how we’re going to manage spent fuel.” 

But new designs and materials could require some engineering solutions. And there’s a huge range of reactor designs, meaning there’s an equally wide range of potential waste types to handle.

Unusual waste

Some new nuclear reactors will look quite similar to operating models, so their spent fuel will be managed in much the same way that it is today. But others use novel materials as coolants and fuels. 

“Unusual materials will create unusual waste,” says Syed Bahauddin Alam, an assistant professor of nuclear, plasma, and radiological engineering at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.

Some advanced designs could increase the volume of material that needs to be handled as high-level waste. Take reactors that use TRISO (tri-structural isotropic) fuel, for example. TRISO contains a uranium kernel surrounded by several layers of protective material and then embedded in graphite shells. The graphite that encases TRISO will likely be lumped together with the rest of the spent fuel, making the waste much bulkier than current fuel.

Today, separating those layers would be difficult and expensive, according to a 2024 report from the Nuclear Innovation Alliance. That means the entire package would be lumped together as high-level waste.  

The company X-energy is designing high-temperature gas-cooled reactors that use TRISO fuel. It has already submitted plans for dealing with spent fuel to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which oversees reactors in the US. The fuel’s form could actually help with waste management: The protective shells used in TRISO eliminate X-energy’s need for wet storage, allowing for dry storage from day one, according to the company.

Liquid-fueled molten-salt reactors, another new type, could increase waste volume too. In these designs, fuel and coolant are not kept separate as in most reactors; instead, the fuel is dissolved directly into a molten salt that’s used as the coolant. That means the entire vat of molten salt would need to be handled as high-level waste.

On the other hand, some other reactor designs could produce a smaller volume of spent fuel, but that isn’t necessarily a smaller problem. Fast reactors, for example, achieve a higher burn-up, consuming more of the fissile material and extracting more energy from their fuel. That means spent fuel from these reactors typically has a higher concentration of fission products and emits more heat. And that heat could be the killer factor for designing waste solutions. 

Spent fuel needs to be kept relatively cool, so it doesn’t melt and release hazardous by-products. Too much heat in a repository could also damage the surrounding rock. “Heat is what really drives how much you can put inside a repository,” says Paul Dickman, a former Department of Energy and NRC official.

Some spent fuel could require chemical processing prior to disposal, says Allison MacFarlane, director of the school of public policy and global affairs at the University of British Columbia and a former chair of the NRC. That could add complication and cost.

In fast reactors cooled by sodium metal, for example, the coolant can get into the fuel and fuse to its casing. Separation could be tricky, and sodium is highly reactive with water, so the spent fuel will require specialized treatment.

TerraPower’s Natrium reactor, a sodium fast reactor that received a construction permit from the NRC in early March, is designed to safely manage this challenge, says Jeffrey Miller, senior vice president for business development at TerraPower. The company has a plan to blow nitrogen over the material before it’s put into wet storage pools, removing the sodium.

Location, location, location

Regardless of what materials are used, even just changing the size of reactors and where they’re sited could introduce complications for waste management. 

Some new reactors are essentially smaller versions of the large reactors used today. These small modular reactors and microreactors may produce waste that can be handled in the same way as waste from today’s conventional reactors. But for places like the US, where waste is stored onsite, it would be impractical to have a ton of small sites that each hosts its own waste.  

Some companies are looking at sending their microreactors, and the waste material they produce, back to a single location, potentially the same one where reactors are manufactured.

Companies should be required to think carefully about waste and design in management protocols, and they should be held responsible for the waste they produce, UBC’s MacFarlane says. 

She also notes that so far, planning for waste has relied on research and modeling, and the reality will become clear only once the reactors are actually operational. As she puts it: “These reactors don’t exist yet, so we don’t really know a whole lot, in great gory detail, about the waste they’re going to produce.”