It’s time to make a plan for nuclear waste

Today, nuclear energy enjoys a rare moment of support across the political spectrum in the US. Interest from tech companies that are scrambling to meet demand for massive data centers has sparked a resurgence of money and attention in the industry. That newfound interest is exactly why it’s time to talk about an old problem: nuclear waste. 

In the US alone, nuclear reactors produce about 2,000 metric tons of high-level waste each year. And there’s nowhere to put it.

Though newly popular, the nuclear program in the US is nothing new. The US hosts more reactors and production capacity than any other country in the world. And yet nearly seven decades after the first permanent nuclear facility in the US went online, there’s still not a long-term solution for nuclear waste. 

Used fuel is largely stored onsite at operating and shut-down reactors, in pools and casks made of steel and concrete. Experts generally agree that these methods are safe, but they’re not designed to be permanent.

The leading strategy around the world for long-term storage of this high-level radioactive waste is to house it in a deep geological repository—dig a hole, put radioactive material down there, and fill it up with concrete. These holes, hundreds of meters underground, are designed to be a permanent home.

There aren’t any operating geological repositories for spent fuel yet, but some countries are well on their way. Finland is the furthest along; as of 2026, the country is testing its facility. Final approvals are expected soon, and operations could start later this year. Some other countries aren’t far behind.

France is home to over 50 nuclear reactors, and its grid gets more of its power from nuclear than any other. The country also has the world’s most established program for reprocessing spent fuel. The process separates out the plutonium and uranium to create a type of fuel known as mixed oxide (MOX) fuel. But reprocessing isn’t a perfect recycling loop, so the leftovers from this process still need somewhere to go. The country currently stores waste onsite at the La Hague reprocessing plant, but it plans to build a repository. Initial approvals could come later this decade, and pilot operations could start up by 2035.

Technically, the US also has a destination for its spent fuel: Yucca Mountain in Nevada. The site, which is on federal land, was designated by Congress in 1987. However, progress has entirely stalled out because of political opposition. In 2011, the federal government stopped providing funding for the site, and for roughly a decade, there’s been no activity to speak of.

In the meantime, waste continues to pile up.

The nuclear industry is kicking into a new gear around the world. China is home to the world’s fastest–growing nuclear energy program, and countries including Bangladesh and Turkey are building their first reactors.

Even the long-established US program is seeing growth: Interest in and approval for nuclear energy have spiked, and Big Tech is throwing money around to meet rising electricity demand. Companies are proposing (and beginning to receive regulatory approval for) next-generation reactors, which employ different coolants, fuels, and designs.

Given all this new interest, and the impending arrival of new types of nuclear waste, it’s time for nuclear companies, as well as their powerful customers, to push for progress on building geological storage facilities. As the richest country on the planet and home to a large chunk of the activity in next-generation reactors, the US should aim to join the leaders rather than continue to lag behind. 

Directing even a small fraction of the recent surge in funding and attention to progress on waste could make a difference. Some experts are calling for a new organization in the US to manage nuclear waste rather than leaving it to the Department of Energy. This organization would mirror programs in Finland, Canada, and France.

The process of planning, building, and commissioning a permanent solution for nuclear waste is a long one. Finland started planning in the 1980s and selected its site in the early 2000s, and it’s nearly ready to start accepting waste. For countries that don’t have a permanent storage solution sorted, the best time to start was decades ago. But the second-best time is now. 

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Will fusion power get cheap? Don’t count on it.

Fusion power could provide a steady, zero-emissions source of electricity in the future—if companies can get plants built and running. But a new study suggests that even if that future arrives, it might not come cheap.

Technologies tend to get less expensive over time. Lithium-ion batteries are now about 90% cheaper than they were in 2013. But historically, different technologies tend to go through this curve at different rates. And the cost of fusion might not sink as quickly as the prices of batteries or solar.

It’s tricky to make any predictions about the cost of a technology that doesn’t exist yet. But when there’s billions of dollars of public and private funding on the line, it’s worth considering what assumptions we’re making about our future energy mix and its cost.

One crucial measure is a metric called experience rate—the percentage by which an energy technology’s cost declines every time capacity doubles. A higher figure means a quicker price drop and better economic gains with scaling.

Historically, the experience rate is 12% for onshore wind power, 20% for lithium-ion batteries, and 23% for solar modules. Other energy technologies haven’t gotten cheap quite as quickly—fission is at just 2%.

In the new study, published in Nature Energy, researchers aimed to improve predictions of fusion’s future price by estimating the technology’s experience rate. The team looked at three key characteristics that can correlate with experience rate: unit size, design complexity, and the need for customization. The larger and more complex a technology is, and/or the more it needs to be customized for different use cases, the lower the experience rate.

The researchers interviewed fusion experts, including public-sector researchers and those working at companies in the private sector. They had the experts evaluate fusion power plants on those characteristics and used that info to predict the experience rate. (One note here: The study focused only on magnetic confinement and laser inertial confinement, two of the leading fusion approaches, which together receive the vast majority of funding today. Other approaches could come with different cost benefits.)

Fusion plants will likely be relatively large, similar to other types of facilities (like coal and fission power plants) that rely on generating heat. They will probably need less customization than fission plants—largely because regulations and safety considerations should be simpler—but more than technologies like solar panels. And as for complexity, “there was almost unanimous agreement that fusion is incredibly complex,” says Lingxi Tang, a PhD candidate in the energy and technology policy group at ETH Zurich in Switzerland and one of the authors of the study. (Some experts said it was literally off the scale the researchers gave them.)

The final figure the researchers suggest for fusion’s experience rate is between 2% and 8%, meaning it will see a faster price reduction than nuclear power but not as dramatic an improvement as many common energy technologies being deployed today.

That means that it would take a lot of deployment—and likely quite a long time—for the price of building a fusion reactor to drop significantly, so electricity produced by fusion plants could be expensive for a while. And it’s a much slower rate than the 8% to 20% that many modeling studies assume today.

“On the whole, I think questions should be raised about current investment levels in fusion,” Tang says. (The US allocated over $1 billion to fusion in the 2024 fiscal year, and private-sector funding totaled $2.2 billion between July 2024 and July 2025.) “If you’re talking about decarbonization of the energy system, is this really the best use of public money?”

But some experts say that looking to the past to understand the future of energy prices might be misleading.“It’s a good exercise, but we have to be humble about how much we don’t know,” says Egemen Kolemen, a professor at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory.

In 2000, many analysts predicted that solar power would remain expensive—but then production exploded and prices came crashing down, largely because China went all in, he says. “People weren’t exactly wrong then,” he adds. “They were just extrapolating what they saw into the future.”

How fast prices drop depends on regulations, geopolitical dynamics, and labor cost, he says: “We haven’t built the thing yet, so we don’t know.”

This article is from The Spark, MIT Technology Review’s weekly climate newsletter. To receive it in your inbox every Wednesday, sign up here.

The noise we make is hurting animals. Can we learn to shut up?

When the covid-19 pandemic started, Jennifer Phillips thought about the songs of the sparrows.

They were easier to hear, because the world had suddenly become quieter. Car traffic plummeted as people sheltered at home and shifted to remote work. Air travel collapsed. Cities—normally filled with the honking, screeching, engine-gunning riot of transportation—became as silent as tombs.

For years, Phillips has studied how animals react to “anthropogenic noise,” or the racket created by human activity. Most animals really don’t like it, she and her colleagues have learned. Animals constantly listen to the world around them: They’re on the alert for the rustle of approaching predators, or a mating call from a member of their species. As human society has expanded—with sprawling cities, industrial mines, and roads crisscrossing the world—it has gotten noisier too, and animals have trouble hearing one another.

Noise is invisible; there’s no billowing smokestack, no soiled waterway. We just got used to it as it vibrated in the background.

Phillips and her colleagues had spent time in the 2010s in San Francisco recording the sound of white-crowned sparrows in the Presidio. It’s a park that is half peaceful nature and half automobile noise, since it’s filled with thick clumps of trees and grassy fields but also has two highways that slice through it, feeding onto the Golden Gate Bridge. In past recordings, starting in the 1950s, sparrows had sung with complex and lower-pitched melodies and three major “dialects.” But by the 2010s, traffic in the Presidio had exploded, and the hubbub was so loud that the birds began to sing with faster trills—and at a higher pitch—so their fellows could hear them. The two quietest dialects were either dead or on their way to extinction.

They’re “screaming at the top of their lungs,” says Phillips. “They really can’t hear the lower frequencies when the traffic noise is present.” Urban noise can even change birds’ bodies; they get thinner and more stressed out. Their mating calls aren’t as effective, because female birds, as researchers have found, generally don’t enjoy high-pitched, high-volume shouting. (It makes them wonder if the males are unhealthy.) The noise can increase bird-on-bird conflict, because when birds can’t hear warning cries they accidentally stumble into enemy territory. Perhaps worst of all, in situations like these biodiversity takes a hit: Entire species that can’t handle urban clamor simply head out of town and never come back.

But as the sudden, eerie silence of the pandemic descended, Phillips sat at home thinking, It’s really quiet. And then she wondered: Would the Presidio birds now be able to hear each other better?

She raced over to the park and started recording. Sure enough, the park was seven decibels quieter—a huge drop. (That’s like the difference between the noise of the average home and whispering.)

And remarkably, the researchers found that the songs of the white-crowned sparrows had transformed. They were singing more quietly, with a richer range of frequencies. A bird could be heard twice as far as before. And the mating calls had gotten more sultry.

“They could sing a higher performance, basically a sexier song, but not have to scream it so loud,” Phillips says. 

It was as if time had been reversed and all the damage abruptly repaired. And it proved what Phillips and her peers have been increasingly documenting: that anthropogenic noise is the newest form of pollution we need to tackle. The noise of our relentlessly on-the-move industrial society affects all life on Earth, wildlife and humans, in ways we’re just beginning to grasp. Yet strategies such as electrification and clever urban design could help. As the Presidio showed, noise can vanish overnight—once we figure out how to shut up.

Hidden impacts

Many forms of pollution are obvious to us humans. Dumping toxic goo into lakes? Sure, that’s bad. Coal smokestacks pumping soot and carbon dioxide, plastic bags and sea nets choking whales—we now understand that these, too, are problems. Even an idea as gauzy as light pollution has penetrated the public consciousness to some extent, since it’s why city dwellers can’t see many stars, and we’ve heard it confuses migratory birds.

But noise, mostly from transportation, took longer to hit our radar. This is partly because it’s invisible; there’s no billowing smokestack, no soiled waterway. We just got used to it as it vibrated in the background.

sparrow perched on a branch, singing
Sparrows in San Francisco’s Presidio began to sing with faster trills—and at a higher pitch—so their fellows could hear them over the noise of nearby traffic.
GETTY IMAGES
hummingbird in flight
The black-chinned hummingbird seems to prefer noisy areas, fledging more chicks than the same species does in quieter areas.
MDF/WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

There were a few studies in the ’70s and ’80s showing that animals were upset by our noise. But the field really began to take off in the ’00s, in part because digital technology made it easier to record long swathes of sound out in nature and analyze them. One early salvo came from the biologist Hans Slabbekoorn, who was studying doves in the city of Leiden and irritatedly noticed that he could rarely get a clean recording because of the background noise. Sometimes he’d see the doves’ throats moving as they cooed but couldn’t hear them. “If I’m having difficulty hearing them,” he thought, “what about them?”

So he and a colleague started recording ambient sound levels in different parts of Leiden. Some were quiet residential areas, which registered a soothing 42 decibels, and others were noisy intersections or areas near highways, which reached 63 decibels, about as loud as background music. Sure enough, he found that birds in the noisy areas were singing at a higher pitch.

Over the next two decades, research in the field bloomed. Noise, the scientists found, has a few common ill effects on animals. It disrupts communication, certainly. But it also generally stresses them, reducing everything from their body weight to their receptivity to mating calls. If an animal nests closer to a road, its reproduction rates can go down; eastern bluebirds, for example, produce fewer fledglings. Truly cacophonous noise—like planes taking off at a nearby airport—can cause hearing loss in birds. And animals can wind up becoming less aware of threats from predators. They’ll wander closer to danger, because they can’t hear it coming. (And sometimes they’ll do the opposite: They’ll develop a rageaholic hair-­trigger temper, because they’re constantly on high alert and regard everything as a threat.) 

Even in deep rural areas, where things are normally pretty quiet, highways can disrupt wildlife—the noise carries far into the fields nearby. Fraser Shilling, a biologist at the University of California, Davis, has stood up to half a mile from rural highways and recorded sound as loud as 60 decibels, which is at least 20 decibels higher than you’d typically find in the wilderness. “The motorcycles and the 18-wheelers are really the ones that project a lot of noise,” he told me. 

Above 55 decibels, many skittish animals get into a fight-or-flight panic. The prevalence of bobcats—an endangered species famously rattled by noise—“starts dropping off the cliff,” says Shilling. Above 65, “you’re really starting to exclude almost all wildlife.”

And that’s not even the upper limit of what wildlife is exposed to. There are roughly a half-million natural-gas wells around the US, and piercingly loud compressors are used to shoot water down into most of them. Up close, the compressors can kick out 95 decibels, a sound as loud as a subway train; at one Wyoming gas well the sound still registered around 48 decibels nearly a quarter-mile away.

Historically, it wasn’t always easy to prove that noise was causing whatever problems the animals were experiencing. Maybe it was other factors; maybe animal populations reduce near a road because some are hit by vehicles? 

But several clever experiments have proved that noise—and noise alone—can disrupt wildlife. One was the “phantom road” experiment by the conservation scientist Jesse Barber and his team, then at Boise State University. They went out to a quiet, uninhabited area of the Boise foothills in Idaho, far away from any roads. In this valley in the mountains, thousands of migratory birds stop on their way south each year; they’ll gorge themselves on cherry bushes, gaining weight for the next days of flying. The researchers strapped 15 pairs of speakers to Douglas fir trees, in a half-kilometer line. Then they blasted recordings of highway noise. They played the noise for four days and then turned it off for four days. Then they observed thousands of birds, capturing many to measure their body mass.

The noise truly rattled the birds. When the sound was turned on, nearly a third left the area. Those that stuck around ate less: While birds should be heavier after a day of foraging, these ones didn’t gain much. The noise seemed to have so interrupted their feeding that they weren’t packing on the weight needed for their migratory trip.

Other, similarly nifty A/B tests followed. One was led by David Luther, a biologist at George Mason University (who also worked with Phillips on the covid-19 study in San Francisco). In 2015, these researchers took 17 white-crowned sparrows at birth and raised them in a lab. To teach them their species’ songs, they played the nestlings recordings of adult sparrows singing, at low and high pitches. Six of the nestlings heard the songs without any interference; with the other half, the researchers played the sounds of city noise at the same time.

The results were stark. The lucky birds that were spared the traffic noise learned to perform the quieter, sweeter, more complex songs. But the birds that had traffic noise blasted learned only the higher, faster, more stressed-out songs. From the cradle, noise changed the way they communicated.

Humans hate noise too

You can’t pull the same experiment with humans, raising them in a lab to see how noise affects them. (Not ethically, anyway.) But if we could, we’d likely find the same thing. We, too, are animals—and it appears that we suffer in similar ways from anthropogenic noise, even though we’re the ones creating it.

The sound of traffic is correlated with lousy sleep, higher blood pressure, more heart disease, and higher stress.

Stacks of research in the last few decades have found that noise—most often, as with wildlife, the sound of traffic—is correlated with lousy sleep, higher blood pressure, more heart disease, and higher stress. A Danish study followed almost 25,000 nurses for years and found that an additional 10 decibels hit them hard; over a 23-year period they had an 8% higher rate of death, plus higher rates of nearly every bad thing that could happen to you: cancers, psychiatric problems, strokes. (They controlled for other malign health influences.) As you’d probably predict by now, children fare badly too. When Barcelona researchers followed almost 3,000 elementary school kids for a year, they found that those in noisier schools performed worse on assessments of working memory and ability to pay attention.

“We think of ourselves as being ‘used to it,’” says Gail Patricelli, a professor of evolution and ecology at the University of California, Davis. “We’re not as used to it as we think we are.”

It’s also true that there’s a trade-off. Many people understand that noise from cities and highways is aggravating, but we tolerate it because we get benefits along with the hassles. Cities are crammed with jobs and connections and dating opportunities; cars and trucks bring us the things we need and increase our personal mobility.

It turns out that animals make a similar calculus. Some species appear to benefit in certain ways from proximity to noise, so they move toward it. 

Clinton Francis, a biologist at California Polytechnic State University, and a team studied bird populations near noisy gas wells in rural New Mexico. Most species avoided the riot of the well pumps. But Francis was surprised to find that some hummingbirds and finches preferred it, and by one important measure they thrived: They were nesting more in the noisy areas than in the quieter areas. Additionally, several species had more success at fledging chicks in noisier locations.

What was going on? It’s likely that the noise makes it harder for predators to hear the birds and hunt down their nests. “It’s essentially a predator shield,” Francis says. Since his research found that predators can cause as much as 76% of failures of eggs to produce healthy offspring, that’s a significant survival advantage.

Cities can offer the same protections to certain species. Consider the case of Flaco, a Eurasian eagle-owl that escaped from the Central Park Zoo in February of 2023 and found he was in a terrific place to hunt. The incessant traffic ought to have caused him trouble. “An owl like this is among the most vulnerable species to intrusions from noise pollution. They’re listening for extremely faint signals or cues that their prey provide,” Francis notes. But New York has its compensations, because prey animals abound. They’re also naïve and unguarded, never expecting an owl with a six-foot wingspan to swoop down and devour them.

EDDIE GUY

Granted, these upsides don’t cancel out the negatives. Human noise may shield some birds from predators, but in other ways it leaves them faintly miserable, with high levels of stress hormones and lower weight. 

Worse, the species that manage to thrive in cities or near highways are often the same ones all over the country.  And they represent only a minority of species; most are driven further away, with less and less land to live on as civilization spreads ever outward. 

“Overall, it’s kind of a nightmare for diversity,” says Luther.

How to silence the world

In the early ’00s, the village of Alverna in the Netherlands began to get louder. A major intercity road cut straight through the town, and traffic had gone up by two-thirds in the previous decade. Facing complaints about the din, the town offered to put up some 13-foot walls on either side of the route. Residents hated the idea. Who wants to look out the window at massive walls?

So instead town planners redesigned the road in subtle ways. They lowered it by half a meter, slightly blocking the tire sounds. They built wedges that rise up three feet on either side, and surfaced them with attractive antique stone; that blocked even more sound. They planted sound-absorbing trees. And as a final coup de grâce, they reduced the speed limit from about 50 to 30 miles per hour. When a car is moving slowly, the engine is producing most of the roar—but once it’s going 45 mph or faster, the rumble of tires on the pavement takes over and is much louder. Each intervention had only a small effect, but cumulatively they made the road a blessed 10 decibels quieter.

This tale illustrates one curious upside of noise. Compared with other forms of pollution, it can be ended quickly. Toxic pollutants or CO2 can hang around for tens of thousands of years; the microplastics in your pancreas are probably never coming out. But with noise, the instant you reduce the source, the benefits are immediate. 

Plus, most of what works is “not rocket science,” Shilling says. A tall wall at the side of a highway will cut noise by 10 decibels; fill a double-sided wall with rubble and it’s even better. That could cut the traffic noise to below 55 decibels, he notes, which would help particularly skittish forms of wildlife. Walls can block animal movement, though, so in animal-heavy areas it’s better to build berms—small hills on either side of a highway. Areas of high ecological importance could be prioritized to keep costs down. 

“If there’s a great chunk of wetland habitat and it’s the only one around for 50 miles in any direction? Well, then we should build noise walls around it,” he says. We should also build overpasses and underpasses to help animals get around. And to quiet the din of gas wells out in the countryside, states could require companies to build walls around them. (They’ll likely only do that, though, when human neighbors complain or launch lawsuits; animals don’t have lawyers.)

Cities, too, can learn to shut up, as Alverna proved. At the most ambitious, some have buried noisy highways that once cut through the downtown core. Boston put a massive elevated highway underground in its “Big Dig”; in Slabbekoorn’s hometown of Amstelveen—a suburb of Amsterdam—they’re currently enclosing the A9 highway in a tunnel and turning the surface into a verdant park with new buildings. “That’s amazing, getting back a lot of the space as well,” he says. 

Granted, this sort of reengineering can be brutally expensive, which is why politicians blanch when they’re asked to reduce road noise. The Big Dig cost $15 billion, and with interest up to $24 billion. When I mentioned cost to Shilling, he sighed. “It’s not as expensive as a B-1 bomber or tax cuts for rich people,” he says. “Environmental stuff is considered expensive just because our expectations are low, not because we can’t afford to do it.”

There are cheaper and more politically palatable fixes, though. Reducing urban speed limits is one; Paris recently cut the top speed on its ring roads from 70 to 50 kilometers per hour (43 to 31 mph), and noise at night went down by an average 2.7 decibels—a noticeable drop. Planting more trees and vegetation all around roads and cities can cut a few decibels more, and residents love it. 

Growing adoption of electricity would also bring down the volume. “Electric vehicles of all kinds have the potential to make a big difference,” Patricelli says; when the light turns green and an EV next to you accelerates away, it’s up to 13 decibels quieter than a comparable gas-­powered vehicle. These benefits won’t be felt as much on highways, because EVs still make tire noise at high speeds. But in the slower stop-and-go traffic of urban life, they are far more pleasant to the ears, both animal and human. Indeed, the electrification of everything that currently uses a gas-powered motor will make urban life quieter. Cities like Alameda, California, and Alexandria, Virginia, are increasingly banning gas-powered leaf blowers and lawn mowers, which operate at hair-raising volume while electric ones whisper along. 

We’ve engineered a civilization that roars, but the next phase is making it purr. The animals will thank us. 

Clive Thompson is a science and technology journalist based in New York City.

The quest to measure our relationship with nature

As a movement, environmentalism has been pretty misanthropic. Understandably so—we humans have done some destructive things to the ecosystems around us. In the 21st century, though, mainstream conservation is learning that humans can be a force for good. Foresters are turning to Indigenous burning practices to prevent wildfires. Biologists are realizing that flower-dotted meadows were ancient food-production landscapes that need harvesting or they’ll disappear. And the once endangered peregrine falcon now thrives in part thanks to nesting sites on skyscrapers and abundant urban prey: rats. 

For decades (two, but that counts), I’ve been writing about how humans aren’t metaphysically different from any other species on Earth. Conservation can’t only be about fencing people out of protected areas. A lot of the time the real trick is not to withdraw from “nature” but to get better at being part of it. 

Still, I recognize that living in harmony with nature sounds like a mushy idea. I was therefore stoked to participate in a meeting in Oxford, UK, that sought to build more precise tools to assess human-nonhuman relationships. Scientists have invented lots of measurements of environmental destruction, from parts per million of carbon dioxide to extinction rates to “planetary boundaries.” These have their uses, but they engage people mostly through dread. Why not invent metrics, we thought, that would engage people’s hopes and dreams? 

It was harder than I expected. How do you quantify how good people in any given nation are at living with other Earthlings? Some of the metrics the group proposed seemed to me to be too similar to the older, more adversarial approach. Why tally the agricultural land use per person, for example? Environmentalists have typically seen farms as the opposite of nature, but they’re also potential sites for both edible and inedible biodiversity. Some of us were keen on satellite imagery to calculate things like how close people live to green space. But without local information, you can’t prove that people can actually access that space.

Eventually the 20 or so scientists, authors, and philosophers who met in Oxford settled on three basic questions. First, is nature thriving and accessible to people? We wanted to know if humans could engage with the world around them. Second, is nature being used with care? (Of course, “care” could mean lots of things. Is it just keeping harvests under maximum sustainable yield? Or does it require a completely circular economy?) And third, is nature safeguarded? Again, not easy to assess. But if we could roughly measure each of these three things, the numbers could combine into an overall score for the quality of a human-nature relationship. 

We published our ideas in Nature last year. Though they weren’t perfect, green-space remote sensing and agricultural footprint calculations made the cut. Since then, a team in the United Nations Human Development Office has continued that work, planning to debut a Nature Relationship Index (NRI) later this year alongside the 2026 Human Development Report. Everyone loves a ranked list; we hope countries will want to score well and will compete to rise to the top. 

Pedro Conceição, lead author of the Human Development Report, tells me that he wants the new index to shift how countries see their environmental programs. (He wouldn’t give me spoilers as to the final metrics, but he did tell me that nothing from our Nature paper made it in.) The NRI, Conceição says, will be critical for “challenging this idea that humans are inherent destroyers of nature and that nature is pristine.” Narratives around constraints, limits, and boundaries are polarizing instead of energizing, he says. So the NRI isn’t about how badly we are failing. It speaks to aspirations for a green, abundant world. As we do better, the number goes up—and there is no limit. 

Emma Marris is the author of Wild Souls: Freedom and Flourishing in the Non-Human World.

Is carbon removal in trouble?

Last week, news outlets reported that Microsoft was pausing carbon removal purchases. It was something of a bombshell.

The thing is, Microsoft is the carbon removal market. The company has single-handedly purchased something like 80% of all contracted carbon removal. If you’re looking for someone to pay you to suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, Microsoft is probably who you’re after.

The company has said that it is not permanently ending its carbon removal purchases (though it didn’t directly answer further questions about this apparent pause). But with this flurry of news, there’s a lot of fear in the industry—so, it’s worth talking about the state of carbon removal, and where Big Tech companies fit in.

Carbon removal aims to reliably pull carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and permanently store it. There’s a wide range of technologies in this space, including direct air capture (DAC) plants, which usually use some kind of sorbent or solvent to pull carbon dioxide from the air. Another important method is bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), in which biomass like trees or waste-derived biofuels are burned for energy, and scrubbing equipment captures the greenhouse gases.

There was a huge boom of interest in carbon removal technologies in the first half of this decade. One UN climate report in 2022 found that nations may need to remove up to 11 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide every year by 2050 to keep warming to 2 °C above preindustrial levels.

One nagging problem is that the economics here have always been tricky. There’s a major potential public good to pulling carbon pollution out of the atmosphere. The question is, Who will pay for it?

So far, the answer has been Microsoft. The company is by far the largest buyer of carbon removal contracts, and it’s the only purchaser that has made megatonne-scale purchases, says Robert Höglund, cofounder of CDR.fyi, ​​a public-benefit corporation that analyzes the carbon removal sector. “Microsoft has had a huge importance, especially for getting large-scale projects off the ground and showing there is demand for large deals,” Höglund said via email.

Microsoft has pledged to become carbon-negative by 2030 and to remove the equivalent of its historic emissions by 2050. Progress on actually cutting emissions has been tough to achieve though—in the company’s latest Environmental Sustainability Report, published in June 2025, it announced emissions had risen by 23.4% since 2020.

On April 10, Heatmap News reported that Microsoft staff had told suppliers and partners that it was pausing future purchases of carbon removal, though it wasn’t clear whether the company would increase support for existing projects, or when purchases might resume. Bloomberg reported a similar story the next day. In one instance, Microsoft employees said that the decision was related to financial considerations, one source told Bloomberg. 

In a statement in response to written questions, Microsoft said that it was not permanently closing its carbon removal program. “At times we may adjust the pace or volume of our carbon removal procurement as we continue to refine our approach toward sustainability goals. Any adjustments we make are part of our disciplined approach—not a change in ambition,” Microsoft Chief Sustainability Officer Melanie Nakagawa said in the statement.

Whatever, exactly, is happening behind the scenes, many in the industry are nervous, says Wil Burns, Co-Director of the Institute for Responsible Carbon Removal at American University. People viewed the company as the foundational supporter of carbon removal, he adds.

“This pause—whether it’s short term or whatever it is—the way it’s been rolled out is extremely irresponsible,” Burns says. The vast majority of firms looking to get carbon removal contracts are probably seeking Microsoft deals. So, while Microsoft has every right to change its plans, the company needs to be open with the industry now, he adds.

“I don’t think you can hold yourself out as the paragon of fostering carbon removal and then treat a nascent industry that disrespectfully,” Burns says.

Carbon removal companies were already in turmoil in the US, particularly because of recent policy shifts: Funding has been cut back, and recent changes at the Environmental Protection Agency were aimed at the government’s ability to target carbon pollution.

Now, if the largest corporate backer is shifting plans or taking a significant pause, things could get rocky.

Depending on the extent of this pause, the industry may need to survive on smaller purchases and hope for support from governments and philanthropy, Höglund says. But for carbon removal to truly scale, we need policymakers to create mandates so that emitters are responsible for either storing the carbon dioxide they produce or paying for it, Burns says.

“Maybe the upside of this is Microsoft has sent a wake-up call, that you just can’t rely on the kindness of strangers to make carbon removal scale.”

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Job titles of the future: Wildlife first responder

Grizzly bears have made such a comeback across eastern Montana that in 2017, the state hired its first-ever prairie-based grizzly manager: wildlife biologist Wesley Sarmento. 

For some seven years, Sarmento worked to keep both the bears, which are still listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act, and the humans, who are sprawling into once-wild spaces, out of trouble. Based in the small city of Conrad, population 2,553, he acted sort of like a first responder, trying to defuse potentially dangerous situations. He even got caught in some himself—which is why, before he left the role to pursue a PhD, he turned to drones to get the job done. 

The bear necessities

Sarmento was studying mountain goats in Glacier National Park when he first started working with bears. To better understand how goats responded to the apex predator, he dressed up in a bear costume once a week for over three years. 

When he later started as grizzly manager, he often drove long distances to push bears away from farms. Bears are drawn to spilled or leaking grains, and an open silo quickly turns into a buffet. Sarmento would typically arrive armed with a shotgun, cracker shells, and bear spray, but after he narrowly escaped getting mauled one day, he knew he had to pivot.

“In that moment,” he says, “I was like, I am gonna get myself killed.”

A bird’s-eye view

Sarmento first turned to two Airedale dogs, a breed known for deterring bears on farms, but the dogs were easily sidetracked. Meanwhile, drones were slowly becoming more common tools for biologists in a range of activities, including counting birds and mapping habitats.

He first took one into the field in 2022, when a grizzly mom and two cubs were found rummaging around in a silo outside of town. The drone’s infrared sensors helped him quickly find their location, and he used the aircraft’s sound to drive them away from the property. (Researchers suspect bears instinctively dislike the whir of blades because it sounds like a swarm of bees.) “The whole thing was so clean and controlled,” he says. “And I did it all from the safety of my truck.”

Since then, the flying machine that Sarmento bought for $4,000—a fairly simple model with a thermal camera and 30 minutes of battery life—has shown its potential for detecting grizzlies in perilous terrain he’d otherwise have to approach on foot, like dense brush or hard-to-reach river bottoms.

A new technological foundation

Now studying wildlife ecology at the University of Montana, Sarmento is hoping to design a drone campus police can use to deter black bears from school grounds. In the future, he hopes, AI image recognition might be broadly integrated into his wildlife management work—maybe even helping drones identify bears and autonomously divert them from high-traffic areas.

All this helps keep bears from learning behaviors that lead to conflict with people—which typically ends badly for the bear and is occasionally fatal for humans.

“The out-of-the-box technology doesn’t exist yet, but the hope is to keep exploring applications,” he says. “Drones are the next frontier.” 

Emily Senkosky is a writer with a master’s degree in environmental science journalism from the University of Montana.

Is fake grass a bad idea? The AstroTurf wars are far from over.

A rare warm spell in January melted enough snow to uncover Cornell University’s newest athletic field, built for field hockey. Months before, it was a meadow teeming with birds and bugs; now it’s more than an acre of synthetic turf roughly the color of the felt on a pool table, almost digital in its saturation. The day I walked up the hill from a nearby creek to take a look, the metal fence around the field was locked, but someone had left a hallway-size piece of the new simulated grass outside the perimeter. It was bristly and tough, but springy and squeaky under my booted feet. I could imagine running around on it, but it would definitely take some getting used to.

My companion on this walk seemed even less favorably disposed to the thought. Yayoi Koizumi, a local environmental advocate, has been fighting synthetic-turf projects at Cornell since 2023. A petite woman dressed that day in a faded plum coat over a teal vest, with a scarf the colors of salmon, slate, and sunflowers, Koizumi compulsively picked up plastic trash as we walked: a red Solo cup, a polyethylene Dunkin’ container, a five-foot vinyl panel. She couldn’t bear to leave this stuff behind to fragment into microplastic bits—as she believes the new field will. “They’ve covered the living ground in plastic,” she said. “It’s really maddening.” 

The new pitch is one part of a $70 million plan to build more recreational space at the university. As of this spring, Cornell plans to install something like a quarter million square feet of synthetic grass—what people have colloquially called “astroturf” since the middle of the last century. University PR says it will be an important part of a “health-promoting campus” that is “supportive of holistic individual, social, and ecological well-being.” Koizumi runs an anti-plastic environmental group called Zero Waste Ithaca, which says that’s mostly nonsense.

This fight is more than just the usual town-versus-gown tension. Synthetic turf used to be the stuff of professional sports arenas and maybe a suburban yard or two; today communities across the United States are debating whether to lay it down on playgrounds, parks, and dog runs. Proponents say it’s cheaper and hardier than grass, requiring less water, fertilizer, and maintenance—and that it offers a uniform surface for more hours and more days of the year than grass fields, a competitive advantage for athletes and schools hoping for a more robust athletic program.

But while new generations of synthetic turf look and feel better than that mid-century stuff, it’s still just plastic. Some evidence suggests it sheds bits that endanger users and the environment, and that it contains PFAS “forever chemicals”—per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, which are linked to a host of health issues. The padding within the plastic grass is usually made from shredded tires, which might also pose health risks. And plastic fields need to be replaced about once a decade, creating lots of waste.

Yet people are buying a lot of the stuff. In 2001, Americans installed just over 7 million square meters of synthetic turf, just shy of 11,000 metric tons. By 2024, that number was 79 million square meters—enough to carpet all of Manhattan and then some, almost 120,000 metric tons. Synthetic turf covers 20,000 athletic fields and tens of thousands of parks, playgrounds, and backyards. And the US is just 20% of the global market. 

Where real estate is limited and demand for athletic facilities is high, artificial turf is tempting. “It all comes down to land and demand.”

Frank Rossi, professor of turf science, Cornell

Those increases worry folks who study microplastics and environmental pollution. Any actual risk is hard to parse; the plastic-making industry insists that synthetic fields are safe if properly installed, but lots of researchers think that isn’t so. “They’re very expensive, they contain toxic chemicals, and they put kids at unnecessary risk,” says Philip Landrigan, a Boston College epidemiologist who has studied environmental toxins like lead and microplastics.

But at Cornell, where real estate is limited and demand for athletic facilities is high, synthetic turf was a tempting option. As Frank Rossi, a professor of turf science at Cornell, told me: “It all comes down to land and demand.”


In 1965, Houston’s new, domed base­ball stadium was an icon of space-age design. But the Astrodome had a problem: the sun. Deep in the heart of Texas, it shined brightly through the Astrodome’s skylights—so much so that players kept missing fly balls. So the club painted over the skylights. Denied sunlight, the grass in the outfield withered and died.

A replacement was already in the works. In the late 1950s a Ford Foundation–funded educational laboratory determined that a soft, grasslike surface material would give city kids more places to play outside and had prevailed upon the Monsanto corporation to invent one. The result was clipped blades of nylon stuck to a rubber base, which the company called ChemGrass. Down it went into Houston’s outfield, where it got a new, buzzier name: AstroTurf.

Workers lay artificial turf at the Astrodome in Houston on July 13, 1966. Developed by Monsanto, the material was originally known as ChemGrass but was later renamed AstroTurf after the stadium.
AP PHOTO/ED KOLENOVSKY, FILE

That first generation of simulated lawn was brittle and hard, but quality has improved. Today, there are a few competing products, but they’re all made by extruding a petroleum-based polymer—that’s plastic—through tiny holes and then stitching or fusing the resulting fibers to a carpetlike bottom. That gets attached to some kind of padding, also plastic. In the 1970s the industry started layering that over infill, usually sand; by the 1990s, “third generation” synthetic turf had switched to softer fibers made of polyethylene. Beneath that, they added infill that combined sand and a soft, cheap shredded rubber made from discarded automobile tires, which pile up by the hundreds of millions every year. This “crumb rubber” provides padding and fills spaces between the blades and the backing.

In the early 1980s, nearly half the professional baseball and football fields in the US had synthetic turf. But many players didn’t like it. It got hotter than real grass, gave the ball different action, and seemed to be increasing the rate of injuries among athletes. Since the 1990s, most pro sports have shifted back toward grass—water and maintenance costs pale in comparison to the importance of keeping players happy or sparing them the risk of injury. 

But at the same time, more universities and high schools are buying the artificial stuff. The advantages are clear, especially in places where it rains either too much or not enough. A natural-grass field is usable for a little more than 800 hours a year at the most, spread across just eight months in the cooler, wetter northern US. An artificial-turf field can see 3,000 hours of activity per year. For sports like lacrosse, which begins in late winter, this makes artificial turf more appealing. Most lacrosse pitches are now synthetic. So are almost all field hockey pitches; players like the way the even, springy turf makes the ball bounce.

Furthermore, supporters say synthetic turf needs less maintenance than grass, saving money and resources. That’s not always true; workers still have to decompact the playing surface and hose it off to remove bird poop or cool it down. Sometimes the infill needs topping up. But real grass allows less playing time, and because grass athletic fields often need to be rotated to avoid damage, synthetic ground cover can require less space. Hence the market’s explosive growth in the 21st century.


The city and town of Ithaca—two separate political entities with overlapping jurisdiction over Cornell construction projects—held multiple public meetings about the university’s new synthetic fields: the field hockey pitch and a complex called the Meinig Fieldhouse. Koizumi’s group turned up in force, and a few folks who worked at Cornell came to oppose the idea too—submitting pages of citations and studies on the risks of synthetic grass.

At two of those meetings, dozens of Cornell athletes turned out to support the turf. Representatives of the university and the athletic department declined to speak with me for this story, citing an ongoing lawsuit from Zero Waste Ithaca. But before that, Nicki Moore, Cornell’s director of athletics, told a local newspaper that demand from campus groups and sports teams meant the fields were constantly overcrowded. “Activities get bumped later and later, and sometimes varsity teams won’t start practicing until 10 at night, you know?” Moore told the paper. “Availability of all-weather space should normalize scheduling a great deal.”

That argument wasn’t universally convincing. “It’s a bad idea, but that’s from the environmental perspective,” says Marianne Krasny, director of Cornell’s Civic Ecology Lab and one of the speakers at those hearings. “Obviously the athletic department thinks it’s a great idea.”

square patch of artificial turf

GETTY IMAGES

Members of Cornell on Fire, a climate action group with members from both the university and the town, joined in opposing the use of artificial turf, citing the fossil-fuel origins of the stuff. They described the nominal support of the project from student athletes as inauthentic, representing not grassroots support but, yes, an astroturf campaign. 

Sorting out the actual science here isn’t simple. Over time, the plastic that synthetic turf is made of sheds bits of itself into the environment. In one study, published in 2023 in the journal Environmental Pollution, researchers found that 15% of the medium-­size and microplastic particles in a river and the Mediterranean Sea outside Barcelona, Spain, came from artificial turf, mostly in the form of tiny green fibers. Back in 2020, the European Chemicals Agency estimated that infill material from artificial-­turf fields in the European Union was contributing 16,000 metric tons of microplastics to the environment each year—38% of all annual microplastic pollution. Most of that came from the crumb rubber infill, which Europe now plans to ban by 2031. 

This pollution worries the Cornell activists. Ithaca is famous for scenic gorges and waterways. The new field hockey pitch is uphill from a local creek that empties into Cayuga Lake, the longest of the Finger Lakes and the source of drinking water for over 40,000 people.

And it’s not just the plastic bits. When newer generations of synthetic turf switched to durable high-density polyethylene, the new material gunked up the extruders used in the manufacturing process. So turf makers started adding fluorinated polymers—a type of PFAS. Some of these environmentally persistent “forever chemicals” cause cancer, disrupt the endocrine system, or lead to other health problems. Research in several different labs has found PFAS in many types of plastic grass.

But the key to assessing the threat here is exposure. Heather Whitehead, an analytical chemist then at the University of Notre Dame, found PFAS in synthetic turf at levels around five parts per billion—but estimated it’d be in water running off the fields at three parts per trillion; for context, the US Environmental Protection Agency’s legal drinking-water limit on one of the most widespread and dangerous PFAS chemicals is four parts per trillion. “These chemicals will wash off in small amounts for long periods of time,” says Graham Peaslee, Whitehead’s advisor and an emeritus nuclear physicist who studies PFAS concentrations. “I think it’s reason enough not to have artificial turf.”

This gets confusing, though. There are over 16,000 different types of PFAS, few have been well studied, and different ­companies use different manufacturing techniques. Companies represented by the Synthetic Turf Council now “use zero intentionally added PFAS,” says Melanie Taylor, the group’s president. “This means that as the field rolls off the assembly line, there are zero PFAS-formulated materials present.”

Some researchers are skeptical of the industry’s assurances. They’re hard to confirm, especially because there are a lot of ways to test for PFAS. The type of synthetic turf going onto the new field hockey pitch at Cornell is called GreenFields TX; the university had a sample tested using an EPA method that looks for 40 different PFAS compounds. It came back negative for all of them. The local activists countered that the test doesn’t detect the specific types they’re most concerned about, and in 2025 they paid for three more tests on newly purchased synthetic turf. Two clearly found fluorine—the F in “PFAS”—and one identified two distinct PFAS compounds. (The company that makes GreenFields TX, TenCate, declined to comment, citing ongoing litigation.)

PFAS isn’t the only potential problem. There’s also the crumb rubber made from tires. A billion tires get thrown out every year worldwide, and if they aren’t recycled they sit in giant piles that make great habitats for rats and mosquitoes; they also occasionally catch fire. Lots of the tires that go into turf are made of styrene-­butadiene rubber, or SBR. In bulk, that’s bad. Butadiene is a carcinogen that causes leukemia, and fumes from styrene can cause nervous system damage. SBR also contains high levels of lead.

But how much of that comes out of synthetic-­turf infill? Again, that’s hotly debated. Researchers around the world have published suggestive studies finding potentially dangerous levels of heavy metals like zinc and lead in synthetic turf, with possible health risks to people using the fields. But a review of many of the relevant studies on turf and crumb rubber from Canada’s National Collaborating Centre for Environmental Health determined that most well-conducted health risk assessments over the last decade found exposures below levels of concern for cancer and certain other diseases. A 2017 report by the European Chemicals Agency—the same people who found all those microplastics in the environment—“found no reason to advise people against playing sports on synthetic turf containing recycled rubber granules as infill material.” And a multiyear study from the EPA, published in 2024, found much the same thing—although the researchers said that levels of certain synthetic chemicals were elevated inside places that used indoor artificial turf. They also stressed that the paper was not a risk assessment. 

The problem is, the kinds of cancers these chemicals can cause may take decades to show up. Long-term studies haven’t been done yet. All the evidence available so far is anecdotal—like a series for the Philadelphia Inquirer that linked the deaths of six former Phillies players from a rare type of brain cancer called glioblastoma to years spent playing on PFAS-containing artificial turf. That’d be about three times the usual rate of glioblastoma among adult men, but the report comes with a lot of cautions—small sample size, lots of other potential causes, no way to establish causation.

Synthetic turf has one negative that no one really disputes: It gets very hot in the sun—as hot as 150 °F (66 °C). This can actually burn players, so they often want to avoid using a field on very hot days.

A field hockey player from Cornell University passes the ball during a game played on artificial turf at Bryant University in 2025. Cornell’s own turf field will be ready for the 2026 season.
GETTY IMAGES

Athletes playing on artificial turf also have a higher rate of foot and ankle injuries, and elite-level football players seem to be more predisposed to knee injuries on those surfaces. But other studies have found rates of knee and hip injury to be roughly comparable on artificial and natural turf—a point the landscape architect working on the Cornell project made in the information packet the university sent to the city. Athletic departments and city parks departments say that the material’s upsides make it worthwhile, given that there’s no conclusive proof of harm.

Back in Ithaca, Cornell hired an environmental consulting firm called Haley & Aldrich to assess the evidence. The company concluded that none of the university’s proposed installations of artificial turf would have a negative environmental impact. People from Cornell on Fire and Zero Waste Ithaca told me they didn’t trust the firm’s findings; representatives from Haley & Aldrich declined to comment.

Longtime activists say that as global consumption of fossil fuels declines, petrochemical companies are desperate to find other markets. That means plastics. “There’s a big push to shift more petrochemicals into plastic products for an end market,” says Jeff Gearhart, a consumer product researcher at the Ecology Center. “Industry people, with a vested interest in petrochemicals, are looking to expand and build out alternative markets for this stuff.”

All that and more went before the decision-­makers in Ithaca. In September 2024, the City of Ithaca Planning Board unanimously issued a judgment that the Meinig Fieldhouse would not have a significant environmental impact and thus would not need to complete a full environmental impact assessment. Six months later, the town made the same determination for the field hockey pitch.

Zero Waste Ithaca sued in New York’s supreme court, which ruled against the group. Koizumi and lawyers from Pace University’s Environmental Litigation Clinic have appealed. She says she’s still hopeful the court might agree that Ithaca authorities made a mistake by not requiring an environmental impact statement from the college. “We have the science on our side,” she says.


Ithaca is a pretty rarefied place, an Ivy League university town. But these same tensions—potential long-term environmental and public health consequences versus the financial and maintenance concerns of the now—are pitting worried citizens against their representatives and city agencies around the country. 

New York City has 286 municipal synthetic-­turf fields, with more under construction. In Inwood, the northernmost neighborhood in Manhattan, two fields were approved via Zoom meetings during the pandemic, and Massimo Strino, a local artist who makes kaleidoscopes, says he found out only when he saw signs announcing the work on one of his daily walks in Inwood Hill Park, along the Hudson River. He joined a campaign against the plan, gathering more than 4,300 signatures. “I was canvassing every weekend,” Strino says. “You can count on one hand, literally, the number of people who said they were in favor.” 

But that doesn’t include the group that pushed for one of those fields in the first place: Uptown Soccer, which offers free and low-cost lessons and games to 1,000 kids a year, mostly from underserved immigrant families. “It was turning an unused community space into a usable space,” says David Sykes, the group’s executive director. “That trumped the sort of abstract concerns about the environmental impacts. I’m not an expert in artificial turf, but the parks department assured me that there was no risk of health effects.”

Artificial turf doesn’t go away. “You’re going to be paying to get rid of it. Somebody will have to take it to a dump, where it will sit for a thousand years.”

Graham Peaslee, emeritus nuclear physicist studying PFAS concentrations, University of Notre Dame

New York City councilmember Christopher Marte disagrees. He has introduced a bill to ban new artificial turf from being installed in parks, and he hopes the proposal will be taken up by the Parks Committee this spring. Last session, the bill had 10 cosponsors—that’s a lot. Marte says he expects resistance from lobbyists, but there’s precedent. The city of Boston banned artificial turf in 2022.  

Upstate, in a Rochester suburb called Brighton, the school district included synthetic-­turf baseball and softball diamonds in a wide-ranging February 2024 capital improvement proposition. The measure passed. In a public meeting in November 2025, the school board acknowledged the intent to use synthetic grass—or, as concerned parents had it, “to rip up a quarter ­million square feet of this open space and replace it with artificial turf,” says David Masur, executive director of the environmental group PennEnvironment, whose kids attend school in Brighton. Parents and community members mobilized against the plan, further angered when contractors also cut down a beloved 200-year-old tree. School superintendent Kevin McGowan says it’s too late to change course. Masur has been working to oppose the plan nevertheless—he says school boards are making consequential decisions about turf without sharing information or getting input, even though these fields can cost millions of dollars of taxpayer money.

In short, the fights can get tense. On Martha’s Vineyard, in Massachusetts, a meeting about plans to install an artificial field at a local high school had to be ended early amid verbal abuse. A staffer for the local board of health who voiced concern about PFAS in the turf quit the board after discovering bullet casings in her tote bag, she said, which she perceived as a death threat. After an eight-year fight, the board eventually banned artificial turf altogether. 


What happens next? Well, outdoor artificial turf lasts only eight to 12 years before it needs to be taken up and replaced. The Synthetic Turf Council says it’s at least partially recyclable and cites a company called BestPLUS Plastic Lumber as a purveyor of products made from recycled turf. The company says one of its products, a liner called GreenBoard that artificial turf can be nailed into, is at least 40% recycled from fake grass. Joseph Sadlier, vice president and general manager of plastics recycling at BestPLUS, says the company recycles over 10 million pounds annually. 

Yet the material is piling up. In 2021, a Danish company called Re-Match announced plans to open a recycling plant in Pennsylvania and began amassing thousands of tons of used plastic turf in three locations. The company filed for bankruptcy in 2025.

In Ithaca, university representatives told planning boards that it would be possible to recycle the old artificial turf they ripped out to make way for the Meinig Fieldhouse. That didn’t happen. An anonymous local activist tracked the old rolls to a hauling company a half-hour’s drive south of campus and shared pictures of them sitting on the lot, where they stayed for months. It’s unclear what their ultimate fate will be.

That’s the real problem: Artificial turf just doesn’t go away. “You’re going to be paying to get rid of it,” says Peaslee, the PFAS expert. “Somebody will have to take it to a dump, where it will sit for a thousand years.” At minimum, real grass is a net carbon sink, even including installation and maintenance. Synthetic turf releases greenhouse gases. One life-­cycle analysis of a 2.2-acre synthetic field in Toronto determined that it would emit 55 metric tons of carbon dioxide over a decade. Plastic fields need less water to maintain, but it takes water to make plastic, and natural grass lets rainwater seep into the ground. Synthetic turf sends most of it away as runoff.

It’s a boggling set of issues to factor into a decision. Rossi, the Cornell turf scientist, says he can understand why a school in the northern United States might go plastic, even when it cares about its students’ health. “It was the best bad option,” he says. Concerns about microplastics and PFAS are “significant issues we have not fully addressed.” And they need to be. 

Douglas Main is a journalist and former senior editor and writer at National Geographic.

Desalination technology, by the numbers

When I started digging into desalination technology for a new story, I couldn’t help but obsess over the numbers.

I’d known on some level that desalination—pulling salt out of seawater to produce fresh water—was an increasingly important technology, especially in water-stressed regions including the Middle East. But just how much some countries rely on desalination, and how big a business it is, still surprised me.

For more on how this crucial water infrastructure is increasingly vulnerable during the war in Iran, check out my latest story. Here, though, let’s look at the state of desalination technology, by the numbers.

Desalination produces 77% of all fresh water and 99% of drinking water in Qatar.

Globally, we rely on desalination for just 1% of fresh-water withdrawals. But for some countries in the Middle East, and particularly for the Gulf Cooperation Council countries (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Oman), it’s crucial.

Qatar, home to over 3 million people, is one of the most staggering examples, with nearly all its drinking water supplies coming from desalination. But many major cities in the region couldn’t exist without the technology. There are no permanent rivers on the Arabian Peninsula, and supplies of fresh water are incredibly limited, so countries rely on facilities that can take in seawater and pull out the salt and other impurities.

The Middle East is home to just 6% of the world’s population and over 27% of its desalination facilities.

The region has historically been water-scarce, and that trend is only continuing as climate change pushes temperatures higher and changes rainfall patterns.

Of the 17,910 desalination facilities that are operational globally, 4,897 are located in the Middle East, according to a 2026 study in npj Clean Water. The technology supplies not only municipal water used by homes and businesses, but also industries including agriculture, manufacturing, and increasingly data centers.

One massive desalination plant in Saudi Arabia produces over 1 million cubic meters of fresh water per day.

The Ras Al-Khair water and power plant in Eastern Province, Saudi Arabia, is one of a growing number of gigantic plants that output upwards of a million cubic meters of water each day. That amount of water can meet the needs of millions of people in Riyadh City. Producing it takes a lot of power—the attached power plant has a capacity of 2.4 gigawatts.

While this plant is just one of thousands across the region, it’s an example of a growing trend: The average size of a desalination plant is about 10 times what it was 15 years ago, according to data from the International Energy Agency. Communities are increasingly turning to larger plants, which can produce water more efficiently than smaller ones.

Between 2024 and 2028, the Middle East’s desalination capacity could grow by over 40%.

Desalination is only going to be more crucial for life in the Middle East. The region is expected to spend over $25 billion on capital expenses for desalination facilities between 2024 and 2028, according to the 2026 npj Clean Water study. More massive plants are expected to come online in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Egypt during that time.

All this growth could consume a lot of electricity. Between growth of the technology generally and the move toward plants that use electricity rather than fossil fuels, desalination could add 190 terawatt-hours of electricity demand globally by 2035, according to IEA data. That’s the equivalent of about 60 million households.

This article is from The Spark, MIT Technology Review’s weekly climate newsletter. To receive it in your inbox every Wednesday, sign up here

Desalination plants in the Middle East are increasingly vulnerable

<div data-chronoton-summary="

  • Water as a weapon: Desalination plants supplying drinking water to millions across the Middle East have become targets in the escalating US-Iran conflict, with plants in Iran, Bahrain, and Kuwait already reporting damage.
  • Gulf states are most at risk: While Iran gets just 3% of its municipal fresh water from desalination, Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait depend on it for over 90% of their drinking water—making them far more exposed to attacks.
  • Bigger plants mean bigger consequences: The average desalination facility is now ten times larger than it was 15 years ago. Taking one offline could impact the water supplies of many people in the area.
  • The danger doesn’t end with the war: Climate change, oil spills, and algae blooms pose growing threats to these facilities—and experts warn the conflict may teach future actors just how effectively water infrastructure can be weaponized.

” data-chronoton-post-id=”1135235″ data-chronoton-expand-collapse=”1″ data-chronoton-analytics-enabled=”1″>

MIT Technology Review Explains: Let our writers untangle the complex, messy world of technology to help you understand what’s coming next. You can read more from the series here.

As the conflict in Iran has escalated, a crucial resource is under fire: the desalination technology that supplies water across much of the region.

In early March, Iran’s foreign minister accused the US of attacking a desalination plant on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting the water supply to nearly 30 villages. (The US denied responsibility.) In the weeks since, both Bahrain and Kuwait have reported damage to desalination plants and blamed Iran, though Iran also denied responsibility.

In late March, President Donald Trump threatened the destruction of “possibly all desalinization plants” in Iran if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened. Since then, he’s escalated his threats against Iran, warning of plans to attack other crucial civilian infrastructure like power plants and bridges.

Countries in the Middle East, particularly the Gulf states, rely on the technology to turn salt water into fresh water for farming, industry, and—crucially—drinking. The mounting attacks and threats to date highlight just how vital the industry is to the region—a situation made even more precarious by rising temperatures and extreme weather driven by climate change.

Right now, 83% of the Middle East is under extremely high water stress, says Liz Saccoccia, a water security associate at the World Resources Institute. Future projections suggest that’s going to increase to about 100% by 2050, she adds: “This is a continuing trend, and it’s getting worse, not better.”

Here’s a look at desalination technology in the Middle East and what wartime threats to the critical infrastructure could mean for people in the region. 

A vital resource

Desalination technology has helped provide water supplies in the Middle East since the early 20th century and became widespread in the 1960s and 1970s.

There are two major categories of desalination plants. Thermal plants use heat to evaporate water, leaving salt and other impurities behind. The vapor can then be condensed into usable fresh water. The alternative is membrane-based technology like reverse osmosis, which pushes water through membranes that have tiny pores—so small that salt can’t get through.

Early desalination plants in the Middle East were the first type, burning fossil fuels to evaporate water, leaving the salt behind. This technique is incredibly energy-intensive, and over time, processes that rely on filters became the dominant choice.

Membrane technologies have made up essentially all new desalination capacity in recent years; the last major thermal plant built in the Gulf came online in 2018. Many reverse osmosis plants still rely on fossil fuels, but they’re more efficient. Since then, membrane technologies have added more than 15 million cubic meters of daily capacity—enough to supply water to millions of people.

Capacity has expanded quickly in recent years; between 2006 and 2024, countries across the Middle East collectively spent over $50 billion building and upgrading desalination facilities, and nearly that much operating them.

Today, there are nearly 5,000 desalination plants operational across the Middle East.

And looking ahead, growth is continuing. Between 2024 and 2028, daily capacity is expected to grow from about 29 million cubic meters to 41 million cubic meters.

Uneven vulnerabilities

Some countries rely on the technology more than others. Iran, for example, uses desalination for about 3% of its municipal fresh water. The country has access to groundwater and some surface water, including rivers, though these resources are being stretched thin by agriculture and extreme drought.

Other nations in the region, particularly the Gulf countries (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Oman), have much more limited water resources and rely heavily on desalination. Across these six nations, all but the UAE get more than half their drinking water from desalination, and for Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait the figure is more than 90%.

“The Gulf countries are much, much more vulnerable to attacks on their desalination plants than Iran is,” says David Michel, a senior associate in the global food and water security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

There are thousands of desalination facilities across the region, so the system wouldn’t collapse if a small number were taken offline, Michel says. However, in recent years there’s been a trend toward larger, more centralized plants.

The average desalination plant is about 10 times larger than it was 15 years ago, according to data from the International Energy Agency. The largest desalination plants today can produce 1 million cubic meters of water daily, enough for hundreds of thousands of people. Taking one or more of these massive facilities offline could have a significant effect on the system, Michel says.

Escalating threats

Desalination facilities are quite linear, meaning there are multiple steps and pieces of equipment that work in sequence—and the failure of a component in that chain can take an entire facility down. Attacks on water inlets, transportation networks, and power supplies can also disrupt the system, Michel says. 

During the Gulf War in 1991, Iraqi forces pumped oil into the gulf, contaminating the water and shutting down desalination plants in Kuwait

The facilities are also generally located close to other targets in this conflict. Desalination is incredibly energy intensive, so about three-quarters of facilities in the region are next to power plants. Trump has repeatedly threatened power plants in Iran. In response, Iran’s military has said that if civilian targets are hit, the country will respond with strikes that are “much more devastating and widespread.” Other governments and organizations, including the United Nations, the European Union, and the Red Cross, have broadly condemned threats to infrastructure as illegal. 

But war isn’t the only danger facing these plants, even if it is the most immediate. Some studies have suggested that global warming could strengthen cyclones in the region, and these extreme weather events could force shutdowns or damage equipment.

Water pollution could also cause shutdowns. Oil spills, whether accidental or intentional, as in the case of the Gulf War, can  wreak havoc. And in 2009, a red algae bloom closed desalination plants in Oman and the United Arab Emirates for weeks. The algae fouled membranes and blocked the plants from being able to take water in from the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

Desalination facilities could become more resilient to threats in the future, and they may need to as their importance continues to grow. 

There’s increasing interest in running desalination facilities at least partially on solar power, which could help reduce dependence on the oil that powers most facilities today. The Hassyan seawater desalination project in the UAE, currently under construction, would be the largest reverse osmosis plant in the world to operate solely with renewable energy. 

Another way to increase resilience is for countries to build up more strategic water storage to meet demand. Qatar recently issued new policies that aim to improve management and storage of desalinated water, for example. Countries could also work together to invest in shared infrastructure and policies that help strengthen the water supply through the region. 

Preparedness, resilience, and cooperation will be key for the Middle East broadly as critical infrastructure, including the water supply, is increasingly under threat. 

“The longer the conflict goes on, the more likely we’ll see significant water infrastructure damage,” says Ginger Matchett, an assistant director at the Atlantic Council. “What worries me is that after this war ends, some of the lessons will show how water can be weaponized more strategically than previously imagined.” 

Fuel prices are soaring. Plastic could be next.

As the war in Iran continues to engulf the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, one of the most visible global economic ripple effects has been fossil-fuel prices. In particular, you can’t get away from news about the price of gasoline, which just topped an average of $4 a gallon in the US, its highest level since 2022.

But looking ahead, further consequences for the global economy could be looming in plastics. Plastics are made using petrochemicals, and the supply chain impacts of the oil bottleneck near Iran are starting to build up. 

Plastic production accounts for roughly 5% of global carbon dioxide emissions today. And our current moment shows just how embedded oil and gas products are in our lives. It goes far beyond their use for energy. 

As I write this, I’m wearing clothes that contain plastic fibers, typing on a plastic keyboard, and looking through the plastic lenses of my glasses. It’s hard to imagine what our world looks like without plastic. And in some ways, moving away from fossil-derived plastic could prove even more complicated than decarbonizing our energy system. 

Crude oil prices have been on a roller-coaster in recent weeks, and prices have recently topped $100 a barrel.

Crude oil contains a huge range of hydrocarbons, and it’s typically refined by putting it through a distillation unit that separates the raw material into different fractions according to their boiling point. Those fractions then go on to be further processed into everything from jet fuel to asphalt binder. We’ve already seen the price spikes for some materials pulled out of crude oil, like gasoline and jet fuel.

Let’s zoom in on another component, naphtha. It can be added to gasoline and jet fuel to improve performance. It can also be used as a solvent or as a raw material to make plastics.

The Middle East currently accounts for about 20% of global naphtha production­ and supplies about 40% of the market in Asia, where prices are already up by 50% over the last month.

We’re starting to see these effects trickle down already. The price of polypropylene (which is made from naphtha and used for food containers, bottle caps, and even automotive parts) is climbing, especially in Asia.  

Typically, manufacturers have a bit of stock built up, but that’ll be exhausted soon, likely in the coming weeks. The largest supplier of water bottles in India recently announced that it would raise prices by 11% after its packaging costs went up by over 70%, according to reporting from Reuters. Toys could be more expensive this holiday season as manufacturers grapple with supply chain concerns.

Americans will likely feel these ripples especially hard if disruptions continue. The average US resident used over 250 kilograms of new plastics in 2019, according to a 2022 report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. That’s an absolutely massive number—the global average is just 60 kilograms.

The effects of higher prices for both fuels and feedstocks could compound and multiply, and alternatives aren’t widely available. Bio-based plastics made with materials like plant sugars exist, but they still make up a vanishingly tiny portion of the market. As of 2025, global plastics production totaled over 431 million metric tons per year. Bio-based and bio-degradable plastics made up about 0.5% of that, a share that could reach 1% by 2030.

Bio-based plastics are much more expensive than their fossil-derived counterparts. And many are made using agricultural raw materials, so scaling them up too much could be harmful for the environment and might compete with other industries like food production.

Recycling isn’t the easy answer either. Mechanical recycling is the current standard method used for materials like the plastics that make up water bottles and disposable coffee cups. But that degrades the materials over time, so they can’t be used infinitely. Chemical recycling has its own host of issues—the facilities that do it can be highly polluting, and today plastics that go into advanced recycling plants largely don’t actually go into new plastics.

There’s been a lot of talk in recent weeks about how this energy crisis is going to push the world more toward renewable energy. Solar panels, electric vehicles, and batteries could suddenly become more attractive as we face the drastic consequences of a disruption in the global fossil-fuel supply.

But when it comes to plastic, the future looks far more complicated. Even though the plastics industry is facing much the same disruptions as the energy sector, there aren’t the same obvious alternatives available for a transition. Our lives are tied up in plastic, with uses ranging from the essential (like medical equipment) to the mundane (my to-go coffee cup). Soon, our economy could feel the effects of just how much we rely on fossil-derived plastics, and how hard it’s going to be to replace them. 

This article is from The Spark, MIT Technology Review’s weekly climate newsletter. To receive it in your inbox every Wednesday, sign up here