CFO: Brands Rarely Max Out Meta Ads

Abir Syed is an accountant turned marketer turned chief financial officer. He says ecommerce marketing success largely depends on creative volume, and few merchants have exhausted any channel, much less Meta.

Abir is co-founder of UpCounting, an accounting and fractional CFO firm in Montréal, Canada. In our recent conversation, he shared common financial mistakes of merchants, key metrics to monitor, and, yes, how to grow ad revenue on Meta.

The entire audio of our conversation is embedded below. The transcript is edited for clarity and length.

Eric Bandholz: Who are you and what do you do?

Abir Syed: I am the co-founder of UpCounting, an accounting and fractional chief financial officer firm focused on ecommerce. We handle everything from basic bookkeeping and transactional work to high-level needs, such as due diligence, back-office implementations, cash flow forecasting, and financial modeling.

I am also a certified public accountant and previously ran both an ecommerce brand and a marketing agency. Most finance professionals lack hands-on experience in advertising or customer acquisition, but I have lived those challenges, and that background significantly shapes how I advise founders.

Marketing is usually an ecommerce brand’s most significant expense; understanding it is essential for providing meaningful financial guidance. So we structure our reporting, dashboards, and forecasting around the realities of ecommerce operations — not just accounting accuracy but actionable insights tied to contribution margin, customer behavior, marketing performance, and growth strategy.

Bandholz: What is the most common financial mistake founders make?

Syed: I see three major issues repeatedly. First, many founders track the wrong numbers. They monitor revenue or look at profit once a month, but rarely examine contribution margin or cash flow. Contribution margin is often ignored entirely, leading to major blind spots. Top-line revenue means little without understanding the economics underneath.

Second, operators often misunderstand what is required to enable growth. I am frequently asked to review struggling ad accounts. A recurring issue is underinvesting in creativity. Founders try to force growth by pushing return on ad spend harder, rather than improving the creative foundation required to scale spend while maintaining healthy acquisition costs.

Third, omnichannel brands frequently fail to separate channel performance. I see profit and loss statements with a single cost of goods sold line combining, say, Shopify, Amazon, and wholesale. Blending everything prevents founders from seeing how each channel is truly performing. Wholesale, for instance, operates on a very different cash cycle.

Bandholz: How often should operators review their financials?

Syed: It depends on the business’s size, complexity, and growth goals.

Most operators should review key historical metrics weekly — cash flow, expenses, and anything unusual moving through the business. A weekly cadence helps identify problems early.

More detailed reporting, such as margin and channel breakdowns, is usually best reviewed monthly. That interval provides cleaner data and enough distance to spot trends rather than reacting to noise.

The most overlooked piece is forecasting. Few brands build forward-looking financial models because it is difficult, yet essential for aggressive growth. Forecasting helps you understand the implications of scaling. Conservative operators can get away without it, but brands pushing hard need projections. Too many founders grow quickly with no plan, no modeling, and no clarity on future cash needs.

Bandholz: How do you decide if a marketing channel is maxed out?

Syed: It is difficult to know with total certainty, but in most cases, brands have not truly saturated a channel, especially Meta. There is usually far more room available than teams realize.

I often compare similar brands in the same category. One might spend $200,000 a month on Meta while also allocating resources to podcasts, TikTok, affiliates, and other channels. Another in the same space might spend $200,000 a day on Meta. They often have similar products, audiences, and brand quality. The difference is creative volume. The larger spender produces an enormous amount of fresh creative, while the other is effectively using a strategy from years ago.

Most brands have not come close to saturating Meta. They are simply underfunding creative strategy.

Increasing creative volume opens new audience pockets and helps find additional winning ads. If the creative that got you to $200,000 in monthly sales has plateaued, you must increase output to climb further. The more the creative volume, the higher the revenue. The pace depends on profitability, reinvestment capacity, creative quality, and a bit of luck.

Working with a media-buying agency that also produces creative can cost upwards of $7,000 per month, ideally under 10% of ad spend. Smaller brands may temporarily spend as much as 30%.

Bandholz: How should brands budget for bookkeeping?

Syed: Smaller brands face a minimum cost for competent bookkeeping. Hiring in-house rarely makes sense until the company is very large. A Shopify-only brand doing $1–5 million annually should expect to spend $2,000-$3,000 per month. Cheaper options exist, but the trade-off is often lower accuracy and weaker communication.

The challenge is that many founders cannot discern whether financial data is clean. It is similar to hiring an internet security expert when you lack technical knowledge — you might overlook major issues until something breaks. We have onboarded many clients who tried cheaper options, only to find their data was consistently incorrect.

To scale aggressively or make data-driven decisions, you need accurate, timely financials and guidance on interpreting them.

Once a brand surpasses roughly $5 million in annual sales, bookkeeping for multiple sales channels typically costs $5,000 to $8,000 per month.

Bandholz: Where can people support you, hire you, follow you?

Abir: Our site is UpCounting.com. I’m on LinkedInInstagram, and X.

Where Investors See Ecommerce Heading

Crunchbase reported in November that ecommerce start-up funding was about to hit a five-year low as investors focus on AI, logistics, marketplace, and live and social shopping.

The ecommerce industry is maturing. Per Crunchbase, total 2025 ecommerce start-up funding in the United States will reach $2.73 billion. That’s down from $3.06 billion last year and $28.05 billion in the pandemic-fueled 2021.

The global market is similar. Worldwide ecommerce investments peaked in 2021 at $92.46 billion, dropping to $7.72 billion this year.

Ecommerce Funding 2020 to 2025

Year United States Global
2020 $10 billion $31.19 billion
2021 $28.05 billion $92.46 billion
2022 $9.98 billion $36.06 billion
2023 $2.87 billion $16.54 billion
2024 $3.06 billion $10.61 billion
2025 $2.73 billion $7.27 billion

Seed through growth rounds of $200,000 or more. Source: Crunchbase.

Investment in Focus

Still, the ecommerce industry continues to grow. Several sources, including the National Retail Federation, have estimated that U.S. ecommerce sales will increase by 7% to 9% year over year by the end of 2025, roughly double that of physical retail.

So why are start-up ecommerce investments down if the industry is growing? The answer is that investors are not abandoning ecommerce. Rather, they are concentrating on areas they believe will define the next phase.

Certainly that’s true for retail enterprises and platforms. Amazon, Walmart, Shopify, PayPal, Target, and prominent brands have announced AI partnerships. These deals are indicative of where enterprise retail is going.

In reviewing this year’s start-up investments and deals among large retailers and commerce platforms, I see five areas of interest that indicate what’s next for ecommerce.

  • AI shopping,
  • AI commerce infrastructure,
  • Rapid logistics and fulfillment,
  • Marketplaces,
  • Live and social commerce.

AI Shopping

AI product search, AI-assisted shopping, and AI-powered agentic commerce are the hottest topics in the industry. Seemingly every major ecommerce retailer, marketplace, and platform is rushing to various degrees of AI-guided ecommerce.

AI shopping tools aim to reduce friction, match products to intent, and increase conversions. The tools will offer shoppers fewer but hopefully more relevant options.

For small-to-medium ecommerce businesses, AI integration will depend on platform adoption. As Shopify, WooCommerce, and BigCommerce integrate AI-guided shopping tools, even small merchants can offer conversational search, personalized recommendations, and similar.

AI shopping assistants may become as standard as site search, shifting how shoppers interact with independent ecommerce stores individually and collectively.

AI Commerce Infrastructure

Another cluster of investments focuses on the underlying infrastructure that powers ecommerce. These include product feeds, merchandising, ad creation, and operations.

GrowthList reported that ShopVision Technologies and Beyond the Checkout each raised funds to automate analytics, product catalog management, and post-purchase workflows.

The industry should therefore expect new software tools and platforms that do the work, such as creating an ad campaign or analyzing sales trends.

Rapid Logistics and Fulfillment

Logistics continues to attract investments as well.

India-based Zepto raised $450 million to expand its fast-delivery grocery network. Wonder, an American food and household delivery service, secured roughly $600 million earlier in 2025, according to Crunchbase.

Other logistics investments included Coco, a last-mile delivery provider that raised $60 million, and Stord, a distributed fulfillment network that raised $80 million.

Getting an ecommerce order from the warehouse to the customer has always been a significant challenge. Amazon and others have mastered it with same-day delivery, yet more speed and efficiency are needed.

Marketplaces

Investors are funding ecommerce marketplaces and related automation tools.

Refurbed, the European recommerce marketplace, raised more than $60 million to scale its operations, while emerging marketplaces in the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America continue to attract capital.

Meanwhile, Amazon, Walmart, Target Plus, TikTok Shop, and Temu have all expanded API access and seller tools, signaling increased competition.

Hence ecommerce sales and distribution might continue to become more decentralized. Independent ecommerce merchants may need to participate in several marketplaces.

Live and Social Commerce

Finally, livestream commerce continues to attract investors. Whatnot, the live shopping marketplace, raised $225 million, according to Crunchbase, and reported more than $6 billion in sales in 2025.

The trend may be a move away from static product pages to interactive, personality-driven sales channels. Live commerce enables shoppers to ask questions and see products in use.

This human interaction could facilitate trust more quickly. It might also be a counterweight of sorts to agentic commerce, where all of the trust is with the AI.

Most retailers will likely host livestreams via platforms and integrations — larger sellers more frequently than smaller ones.

Solar Power Developer on Fueling the Grid

Chris Elrod is a renewable power entrepreneur. His company, Treaty Oak Clean Energy, builds massive solar projects that provide electricity for large corporations and utility firms.

It’s boom times for electricity generators as the likes of Google, ChatGPT, and Amazon scramble for reliable sources.

How, exactly, does a company build a solar-generating plant and then sell the electricity to end users? I asked Chris those questions and more in our recent conversation.

Our entire audio is embedded below. The transcript is edited for clarity and length.

Eric Bandholz: Who are you, and what do you do?

Chris Elrod: I’m the CEO and co-founder of Treaty Oak Clean Energy, a renewable energy developer based in Austin, Texas. We build large solar and battery projects that connect directly to the grid and power enterprise users and tens of thousands of homes. I’ve spent about two decades in the energy industry, mainly in project finance and large-scale infrastructure.

Before Treaty Oak, I co-founded AP Solar, a Texas-based firm focused on utility-scale solar projects. After seven years, we exited the company, and my partners and I used the proceeds to form Treaty Oak with a broader mission and larger geographic footprint. We launched in 2022 and sold the company to Macquarie Asset Management, a private equity investor, in the same year. I continue to lead the business as CEO.

It’s been a journey from early corporate roles to scrappy two-guys-in-a-truck entrepreneurship to running a PE-backed national developer. Every step has sharpened our approach to building and scaling renewable infrastructure.

Bandholz: How big are these projects?

Elrod: They are modern power plants spread across thousands of acres. We secure land, obtain entitlements, build the generation infrastructure, and integrate the projects into the grid. Electricity demand, once flat for years, has surged due to AI and industrial onshoring. The grid needs far more generation, and large-scale solar and storage can be deployed at speed and scale.

This year, we’ll raise roughly $1.1 to $1.2 billion in third-party capital. About $800 million will finance two Louisiana solar projects, with a third under construction in Arkansas. Together, they represent approximately 500 megawatts [the equivalent power needs for roughly 400,000 homes per year].

Bandholz: Walk us through the financing of a large solar installation.

Elrod: Project finance relies on predictable long-term cash flows. Solar assets typically have a 40-year useful life based on warranties and technology. Battery projects run about 25 years because of cell degradation. Lenders don’t lend for the full duration. They usually analyze an 18-year window and determine whether they could recover capital.

Most projects refinance around year five of operation. Lenders want repayment earlier because their funds aren’t structured to hold fixed-rate debt for decades. We pay down a portion through scheduled maturities and then refinance the rest. Long-term interest rates, not short-term, drive our financing costs. The primary lenders in this space are large European and Japanese commercial banks.

Most deals use a club structure where several lenders share the debt equally to balance risk. Another option is underwriting, where one or two banks commit to a large initial ticket and later syndicate portions to others. It speeds execution but costs more.

We’ve gone hands-on, working directly with multiple lenders instead of relying on a single underwriter. It requires additional effort but gives us better control of terms and relationships.

Between debt and equity, it’s primarily a cost-of-capital decision. Interest rates are still several percentage points above 2022 levels, which affects infrastructure returns. Even so, debt remains cheaper than equity because shareholders require higher returns. As long as project fundamentals support it, debt is more efficient and preserves equity while improving overall economics.

Bandholz: How do macro events such as tariffs and supply chain disruptions affect your projects?

Elrod: We monitor macro factors constantly — interest rates, regulatory shifts, and especially tariffs. Tariffs bring real uncertainty. Some policies may serve a strategic purpose, but others affect components that the U.S. cannot yet manufacture at the required scale or cost. Volatility is the most challenging aspect because tariff actions can change quickly.

We shift risk to customers and suppliers where possible, and stay agile. If policy signals suggest a tariff might hit, we may accelerate procurement or import components early. It’s less about a perfect strategy and more about informed, rapid adaptation.

Solar panels are a significant cost driver, but so are steel pilings, racking systems, copper and aluminum cabling, and engineered materials. Some manufacturing exists in the U.S., and more will grow, but not enough to meet current utility-scale demand at the required price or quality. Global supply chains remain essential.

Tariff risk is exactly why contract structure matters. We can’t commit to pricing and later absorb unexpected cost increases that eliminate project margins. We’ve avoided that so far by locking in supply-chain terms early and keeping customer pricing stable from the start. Our goal is to shield customers from volatility while protecting shareholder value. That requires constant coordination, nimble procurement, and effective risk transfer.

Our customers — major corporations and operators — need reliable, clean power to support accelerating electricity demand. Solar generation combined with storage remains the fastest, most scalable solution.

Bandholz: How have you built your team?

Elrod: Our power markets team manages sales end-to-end. They identify customers, respond to requests for information and proposals, submit projects, and run procurement and communication. I support them, but they lead the process.

Our company has grown from about 17 people when we sold to Macquarie in 2022 to over 100 today. Building the right culture has been essential. Our message is “execute with excellence,” and that means staying vigilant across every part of the business.

Hiring has been challenging. Post-Covid labor dynamics and the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act in 2022 increased competition and wage pressure. We sometimes hired too quickly to fill roles. Now we use structured scorecards for senior positions, with clear criteria aligned with the company’s objectives. Our people and culture team works closely with hiring managers to ensure each candidate is the right fit. We maintain transparency and quarterly performance alignment to keep teams focused and accountable.

The U.S. still offers enormous opportunities. Demand for electricity, infrastructure, and clean generation is expanding rapidly, and the market has the capacity to support substantial growth.

Bandholz: Where can people reach out to you or get advice?

Elrod: Our website is TreatyOakCleanEnergy.com. Reach out to me on LinkedIn.

Books on Startups, Founders, Investors

Entrepreneurs know the tradeoffs of external capital. The money enables faster growth and infrastructure, but the price is control and occasional chaos. In these 12 books, founders, investors, and academics share the good and the bad.

World Eaters: How Venture Capital Is Cannibalizing the Economy

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World Eaters

by Catherine Bracy

Bracy, founder of the nonprofit organization TechEquity, contends that the venture capital model of “hyper maximalist growth” has far-reaching negative impact and isn’t a good fit for most startups. Congressman Ro Khanna calls the book “important and insightful,” while Publishers Weekly says it’s a “convincing call for change.”

Raising Capital with Confidence

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Raising Capital with Confidence

by Darin H Mangum, Esq.

The author leads a law firm specializing in securities, with clients including private investment firms and funds. He explains deal structures, how to find the right investors, legal compliance, and more, offering a practical guide to help readers avoid common financing pitfalls and meet their unique business needs for sustainable growth.

The Startup Lifecycle: The Definitive Guide to Building a Startup from Idea to Exit

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The Startup Lifecycle

by Gregory Shepard

According to Shepard, nine out of 10 startups fail within five years, often due to common and avoidable mistakes. He has built and sold a dozen businesses and provides a roadmap to every phase of the startup lifecycle, from initial vision through growth and successful exit.

Start. Scale. Exit. Repeat. Serial Entrepreneurs’ Secrets Revealed!

Cover of Start. Scale. Exit. Repeat.

Start. Scale. Exit. Repeat.

by Colin C. Campbell

Campbell combines his decades of experience as a serial entrepreneur with insights distilled from interviewing more than 30 entrepreneurs and experts to create a multi-award-winning guide to building, growing, and selling a business.

Exit-Ready Marketing: The 9-Step Framework to Maximize Your Valuation

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Exit-Ready Marketing

by Shiv Narayanan

Unpredictable revenue can be an obstacle to attracting investment. Narayanan focuses on simple but sophisticated data-driven marketing strategies that create predictable revenue necessary for planning and investing in your business’s growth and increasing its value to private equity investors.

The Venture Mindset: How to Make Smarter Bets and Achieve Extraordinary Growth

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The Venture Mindset

by Ilya Strebulaev, Alex Dang

Strebulaev is the leading academic on venture capital; Dang is a senior tech executive, having worked at firms such as McKinsey and Amazon. In this national bestseller, they share key venture capital principles to improve decision-making, identify emerging trends and opportunities, and spark innovation.

Behind the Startup: How Venture Capital Shapes Work, Innovation, Inequality

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Behind the Startup

by Benjamin Shestakofsky

The author, a sociologist, spent a year and a half conducting experiential research inside a successful Silicon Valley startup. He explores how the intense pressure from funders to scale rapidly creates problems for the organization and, ultimately, society at large.

Founder vs Investor: The Honest Truth about Venture Capital

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Founder vs Investor

by Elizabeth Joy Zalman and Jerry Neumann

A two-time founder and a veteran venture capital investor reveal an insider’s view of how the differing motives and incentives of founders and investors — “those with the vision and those with the money” — often result in chaos in the early stages of fast-growing startups.

Two and Twenty: How the Masters of Private Equity Always Win

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Two and Twenty

by Sachin Khajuria

Once an investing niche, private equity now has a vast global influence. The author, a former partner at a leading private equity firm and longtime investor, offers what Fortune calls “a true insider’s account of the industry” through stories of real-life dealmaking.

The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future

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The Power Law

by Sebastian Mallaby

Mallaby, a bestselling author and two-time Pulitzer finalist, examines how the nature of venture capital shapes innovation in Silicon Valley and beyond. He delves into the lesser-known aspects of the success and failure of firms such as Apple, Uber, and WeWork, blending storytelling and analysis.

Super Founders: What Data Reveals About Billion-Dollar Startups

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Super Founders

by Ali Tamaseb

Tamaseb interviews top founders and investors, and shares inside stories from PayPal, Instacart, Sequoia Capital, Lyft, Founders Fund, ByteDance, and SpaceX, among others. The result is surprising revelations — for example, being first to market with an idea isn’t necessary for success.

Venture Deals: Be Smarter Than Your Lawyer and Venture Capitalist 4th Edition

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Venture Deals

by Brad Feld, Jason Mendelson

The authors have decades of experience as entrepreneurs, investors, and mentors to founders. Drawing on their involvement in scores of venture financings, they explain term sheets, negotiating strategies, legal considerations, types of debt, and how to build supportive and collaborative relationships between entrepreneurs and investors.

Revenue Loans Are Fast Cash at a Price

A growing form of revenue-based financing can fund the marketing push or inventory boost for ecommerce merchants to capture growth opportunities. But “merchant cash advances” are often expensive and not suited to every business.

Ecommerce companies experience highs and lows. Merchant cash advances tend to work better when merchants are on the upswing.

A merchant cash advance (MCA) is a loan, a lump-sum payment, that the borrower agrees to repay through a fixed percentage of revenue.

According to Aidan Corbett, CEO of Wayflyer, an MCA and term-loan provider, three characteristics distinguish MCAs from other types of financing:

  • Aligned outcomes between the lender and merchant,
  • Revenue-based repayment,
  • Speed and ease of approval.

Each can be beneficial, but with trade-offs.

Screenshot of Wayflyer's home page

Wayflyer offers merchant cash advances, as do Shopify Capital, Stripe Capital, and others.

Aligned incentives

MCAs differ from a traditional lender-borrower dynamic. The provider’s repayment depends on the merchant’s revenue performance. Both have a shared interest in success.

“I’m being careful not to say borrower and lender,” Corbett said, emphasizing that both sides benefit only if the merchant performs well.

In the United States, MCAs are typically unsecured and unregulated. If a business fails outright, the company providing the advance may lose its investment. MCA funders look for healthy, growing businesses.

The idea of aligned outcomes is a newer trend. Past MCAs resembled payday loans, but the best 2025 offerings emphasize a partnership model aimed at sustainable growth with transparent fees.

Revenue-based repayment

Borrowers repay MCAs through a share of daily or weekly sales, not fixed monthly payments. The share varies but is typically 10% to 25% according to published reports.

Corbett gave the example of an ecommerce company receiving a $100,000 advance. The repayment might total $106,000, with the $6,000 difference representing the provider’s fee. If daily sales are strong, the repayment is quick. If sales dip, the repayments slow down.

This structure is appealing to ecommerce shops with predictable, growing revenue. But it also means that repayment can begin before the business reaps the monetary benefit of the borrowed capital, especially for inventory or long-term marketing campaigns.

Fast approval

MCAs are fast. Ecommerce businesses can qualify within days after providing sales history and a plan for using the funds. There is typically no collateral requirement and no formal credit check.

Corbett said Wayflyer looks for growing brands with a broad product mix and high reorder rates. Stores with strong and consistent return on ad spend and efficient customer acquisition tactics are also favorable candidates.

MCA Use Case

Consider an ecommerce company selling home organization products with steady, year-round revenue. The company recently launched a new line of modular storage kits. Initial customer response is strong. Conversion rates are up, and test campaigns are returning a 4:1 ROAS.

A home improvement blog with more than 500,000 readers offers the business a two-week premium ad placement. The channel that has worked well for the merchant, but the $30,000 ad buy is time-sensitive, and the company doesn’t have the cash on hand.

A traditional loan won’t arrive in time. Instead, the founder uses a $30,000 MCA, agreeing to repay $36,000 via daily deductions from revenue.

The estimated boost in customer acquisition and long-term customer value more than offsets the financing cost.

It’s a good use case. The MCA funds a specific, high-return opportunity with relatively predictable payback.

Costs

MCA fees — “factor rates”— can be high. For instance, a factor rate of 1.2 on a $50,000 advance means the merchant owes $60,000 in total, regardless of the repayment period. A six-month payback can exceed 24% effective annual interest.

Still, Corbett said the MCA market for ecommerce has grown more competitive, and some providers now offer rates comparable to term loans, particularly for strong companies.

He advises merchants to shop around, avoid excessive origination fees, and never take an MCA with exorbitant effective interest. Fast money should not outweigh sound financial planning.

Dependency

MCAs can reduce cash flow before earnings materialize. Because repayments are tied to revenue, not profit, they can erode margins quickly.

Consider an ecommerce store with a 35% gross margin. If customer acquisition costs are 10%, payment processing fees are 2%, and the MCA repayment rate is 20%, the business retains just a 3% margin.

That razor-thin gross profit makes it difficult to self-fund growth or even cover operating expenses. The merchant may then rely on successive MCAs, falling into a cycle of borrowing.

Nonetheless, used strategically, MCAs can fund timely opportunities for growth. Thanks to Wayflyer, Shopify Capital, Stripe Capital, and similar firms, MCAs are increasingly common and beneficial.

Charts: U.S. Banking Technology Trends

KPMG’s annual U.S. banking technology survey is a “pulse-check of the priorities of leadership across the industry.” For 2025, the accounting and consulting firm queried 200 U.S. banking executives from large and small institutions across various departments to assess their tech expertise, investment plans, and readiness for inevitable change.

The firm then assembled the findings in its “2025 Banking Technology Survey” report issued in April.

Per the KPMG report, U.S. banking executives are adopting generative AI across the entire company, seeing it as essential to their long-term relevance.

Moreover, 42% of respondents believe that by the end of 2025, genAI will handle 21% to 40% of daily tasks, allowing employees to focus more on higher-value work.

Furthermore, most banks are upgrading their payments platforms, reflecting the preferences of today’s consumers.

Ecommerce Investor on Turnaround Tactics

Mehtab Bhogal is the co-founder of Karta Ventures, a Canada-based acquirer of troubled ecommerce businesses. The firm seeks companies with “issues,” such as unpaid taxes, regulatory problems, and founder disputes.

He says buying distressed companies is like salvaging a crashed car. “What are the parts worth?” he asks.

Mehtab and I recently spoke. He addressed identifying hidden value, turnaround tactics, seller concerns, and more.

The entire audio of our conversation is embedded below. The transcript is edited for clarity and length.

Eric Bandholz: Give us a quick rundown.

Mehtab Bhogal: I’m the co-founder of Karta Ventures. We invest in consumer brands in distressed situations, such as tax issues, regulatory problems, founder disputes, things like that. We move fast and write checks quickly. Our portfolio ranges from a direct-to-consumer succulent plant farm to traditional apparel companies.

Early on, we invested in companies with both income statement and balance sheet problems. Now, I prefer one or the other. We focus on size. We will shrink a company if necessary. An optimal size for us is scaling businesses down to $15-$20 million in annual D2C revenue if we’re buying them outright.

For example, we looked at a retailer once that had peaked at $110 million, was doing $70 million, but we believed it operated most profitably at $30–$40 million in revenue.

Bandholz: How do you find the right deals?

Bhogal: In 2018, when we began, we sent cold emails to over 2,000 companies. We used BuiltWith to analyze tech stacks and backends to estimate revenue. From there, we targeted businesses generating a few million annually. Most of our deal flow now comes from word of mouth, especially since other investors tend to avoid turnarounds.

We also invest in profitable companies with big projects. One company needed help building a new manufacturing facility, which we’re good at. If there’s value to unlock, we’re interested.

Buying distressed companies is like salvaging a crashed car: What are the parts worth, and what could a skilled mechanic do with them? We sometimes acquire the right to buy equity before full diligence. That lets us move quickly, cut costs, and create breathing room while we dig deeper. We often reduce expenses by six to seven figures within a week or so. Meanwhile, we gain insights, and the existing management determines if they want to work with us.

Bandholz: How can you make those cuts in a single week?

Bhogal: It’s all about context. We can usually tell whether growth came from good marketing or a great product.

For example, I know a founder doing 30% net margins on $30-40 million in annual revenue. He has no idea what he’s doing on the ecommerce side. But his product is incredible — strong patents, hard to copy, perfect market fit. That’s why it works.

We’ve developed pattern recognition from working with many companies. We spot inefficiencies quickly, such as bloated teams, sloppy ad accounts, and underutilized staff. For instance, if a company needs only four raw materials, why does it have an entire supply chain team?

Or why does a CFO at a $20 million company have a huge support staff?

Founders are sometimes great at marketing but weak at finance or operations. I can log into a Google Ads account and quickly see if targeting and spend are optimized. That’s the type of stuff we jump on fast.

Bandholz: Is your goal to flip a business or hold it?

Bhogal: It depends. Sometimes we buy the business outright; other times we invest as minority shareholders with no control — both models work for us.

Take the succulent plant business we invested in back in 2018. We helped restructure debt, acquired a farm to integrate vertically, and began growing and shipping plants ourselves from Riverside, California. We’ve held that position and won’t exit unless the founder wants to. That was our agreement — get our cash out in one to two years and go from there.

Other founders want to optimize and sell in 6-12 months. That works too. The key is alignment: Everyone should have the same end goal and roadmap. If those are in place, things rarely go wrong.

Bandholz: What’s your daily focus, researching deals or operating businesses?

Bhogal: We’re hands-on. We teach teams how to manage recurring tasks. But for one-off strategic decisions, such as evaluating whether to use a 3PL or in-house fulfillment, we’re directly involved. The same goes for setting up manufacturing or optimizing marketing. We’ve performed those analyses so many times that we can quickly run the numbers.

We don’t want to be in the weeds long-term, but we’ll dive in initially to gain clarity and speed things up. We want the company to operate without needing our daily involvement. But we’re very engaged for the first few months.

Bandholz: How should founders evaluate debt financing?

Bhogal: First, understand the deal. Model your payments and liabilities. Know if there’s a personal guarantee, if the loan is secured, and what happens if revenue dips. Research lenders on PACER to review their legal history — some are reputable, others not so much. Ecommerce lenders, in particular, can be volatile. Many raised venture money and spent it recklessly.

Ask yourself: Where is this lender getting its money? Is it sustainable, or will its problems become yours in a downturn? In uncertain consumer markets, flexibility matters. We’d rather pay more for a dependable, traditional lender than risk a deal that could backfire if the economy shifts.

Bandholz: Where can people contact you?

Bhogal: Our site is KartaVentures.com. I’m on X and LinkedIn.

Charts: Global M&A Trends Q4 2024

The deal value of global 2024 mergers and acquisitions transactions was up 15% year-over-year as of early December and on pace to reach about $3.5 trillion for the year. That’s according to Bain & Company’s new “Global M&A Report 2025” (PDF), which recaps 2024 activity based on data from Deallogic and S&P Capital IQ.

According to the Bain report, in 2024, deal value was historically low relative to global GDP, but the outlook for 2025 is strong as acquistions and divestitures become essential for companies navigating technological disruption.

The report also shows that most global industries grew or remained stable in 2024, with Energy and Natural Resources topping the list, followed by Advanced Manufacturing and Services.

Bain & Company also surveyed 307 M&A executive practitioners in October 2024 across the U.S., Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, and the U.K. — inquiring about their use of generative AI to enhance deal-making.

BNPL Fuels Supplier, Retailer Growth

Buy-now pay-later loans can boost cash flow for wholesalers and retailers in 2025 and beyond.

Business-to-business sales bring to mind massive deals with million-dollar transactions, but many wholesale brands sell to small retailers, where deals are in the thousands, not millions.

“We have a few different sock brands running on Cin7, and they sell to kiosks and small shops,” said Ajoy Krishnamoorthy, the CEO of Cin7, which makes cloud-based inventory management software, in an email exchange.

“Those retailers place orders that are $1,000 or $10,000 worth and are often seasonally driven — perfect for BNPL,” stated Krishnamoorthy.

Cash Flow

In particular, BNPL for B2B may be a cash flow opportunity for both the supplier and retailer.

For wholesalers, BNPL accelerates cash inflows and reduces credit risk. For retailers, it aligns inventory costs with revenue, provides financial breathing room, and facilitates growth. Both parties benefit, making BNPL a powerful tool in modern B2B commerce.

Wholesalers

Cash flow is essential for manufacturers, brands, and distributors.

The trouble is that many often wait to get paid. Traditional trade credit arrangements have 30-, 60-, or 90-day terms. B2B BNPL addresses the issue by delivering the payment in a few days or less.

Imagine how much more a manufacturer could produce if a $10,000 invoice is paid tomorrow instead of 60 days from now. The business could rapidly reinvest, explore new marketers, or expand its product line.

BNPL mitigates credit risk. Wholesalers that extend trade credit to retailers are exposed to potential late payments or defaults.

Yet BNPL’s advantages come with a cost: loan fees of 3% or more, typically. Sellers can pay the fees or pass them to buyers. Regardless, there is a cost in money or customer relationships.

Retailers

Cash flow is also vital for retailers operating on thin margins. BNPL loans usually offer better rates than credit cards and are relatively more accessible than advances from a bank or finance company.

Loan Feature BNPL Loans Credit Cards Capital Loans
Approval speed Instant or rapid Moderate Slow
Interest rates Often 0% short term 15%-25% 4%-10%
Flexibility High, purchase-specific High, general purpose Low, long-term use
Default risk Low Moderate High

BNPL loans also offer flexibility. Imagine a small sock seller like the one Krishnamoorthy described. The seller decides to augment its online revenue with a kiosk at the local mall but doesn’t know how to forecast inventory needs.

With a BNPL loan, the merchant could purchase for the kiosk, say, five months’ worth of socks for its ecommerce shop. If the new mall location works well and the socks sell out, it is easy to pay off the loan early. If not, the seller can make monthly payments and sell the inventory online.

The interest rate will almost certainly be lower than a revolving charge card.

The example need not be a physical location. BNPL’s flexible payment terms and rapid application process could fuel new online opportunities.

The risk is relatively low, too. Missing a BNPL loan payment may result in penalties but generally avoids the high compounding interest of credit cards.

Finally, the merchant could generate revenue as the merchandise sells — the BNPL loan improves cash flow.

As with any form of credit, BNPL could be abused or misused.

BNPL for B2B

With its potential benefits, BNPL for B2B will likely accelerate in 2025. I’ve seen estimates of 27% growth this year, roughly mirroring the 25% growth projection for B2C.

Charts: Global Investor Trends 2024

For its fourth annual “Global Investor Survey,” PwC queried 345 global investors and analysts in September 2024 across various regions, asset classes, and investment approaches. The goal was to understand respondents’ expectations for the companies they invest in and cover and their views on risks and technology, including generative AI.

Thirty-six percent of respondents replied the companies they own or cover are “highly” or “extremely” exposed to geopolitical conflict and cyber risk.

Investors emphasized the importance of companies adapting business modelsTechnological change was the top priority, followed by government regulation, shifts in customer preferences, and supply chain instability.

Generative AI will drive significant performance gains without compromising employees’ roles, according to the respondents. Sixty-six percent expect the companies they invest in to achieve productivity boosts from AI within the next year, while 63% foresee revenue growth and 62% predict increased profitability.

Moreover, the data also shows that investors are more inclined to view AI as an opportunity rather than a challenge.