Why virologists are getting increasingly nervous about bird flu

Bird flu has been spreading in dairy cows in the US—and the scale of the spread is likely to be far worse than it looks. In addition, 14 human cases have been reported in the US since March. Both are worrying developments, say virologists, who fear that the country’s meager response to the virus is putting the entire world at risk of another pandemic.

The form of bird flu that has been spreading over the last few years has been responsible for the deaths of millions of birds and tens of thousands of marine and land mammals. But infections in dairy cattle, first reported back in March, brought us a step closer to human spread. Since then, the situation has only deteriorated. The virus appears to have passed from cattle to poultry on multiple occasions. “If that virus sustains in dairy cattle, they will have a problem in their poultry forever,” says Thomas Peacock, a virologist at the Pirbright Institute in Woking, UK.

Worse, this form of bird flu that is now spreading among cattle could find its way back into migrating birds. It might have happened already. If that’s the case, we can expect these birds to take the virus around the world.

“It’s really troubling that we’re not doing enough right now,” says Seema Lakdawala, a virologist at the Emory University School of Medicine in Atlanta, Georgia. “I am normally very moderate in terms of my pandemic-scaredness, but the introduction of this virus into cattle is really troubling.”

Not just a flu for birds

Bird flu is so named because it spreads stably in birds. The type of H5N1 that has been decimating bird populations for the last few years was first discovered in the late 1990s. But in 2020, H5N1 began to circulate in Europe “in a big way,” says Peacock. The virus spread globally, via migrating ducks, geese, and other waterfowl. In a process that took months and years, the virus made it to the Americas, Africa, Asia, and eventually even Antarctica, where it was detected earlier this year.

And while many ducks and geese seem to be able to survive being infected with the virus, other bird species are much more vulnerable. H5N1 is especially deadly for chickens, for example—their heads swell, they struggle to breathe, and they experience extreme diarrhea. Seabirds like puffins and guillemots also seem to be especially susceptible to the virus, although it’s not clear why. Over the last few years, we’ve seen the worst ever outbreak of bird flu in birds. Millions of farmed birds have died, and an unknown number of wild birds—in the tens of thousands at the very least—have also succumbed. “We have no idea how many just fell into the sea and were never seen again,” says Peacock.

Alarmingly, animals that hunt and scavenge affected birds have also become infected with the virus. The list of affected mammals includes bears, foxes, skunks, otters, dolphins, whales, sea lions, and many more. Some of these animals appear to be able to pass the virus to other members of their species. In 2022, an outbreak of H5N1 in sea lions that started in Chile spread to Argentina and eventually to Uruguay and Brazil. At least 30,000 died. The sea lions may also have passed the virus to nearby elephant seals in Argentina, around 17,000 of which have succumbed to the virus.

This is bad news—not just for the affected animals, but for people, too. It’s not just a bird flu anymore. And when a virus can spread in other mammals, it’s a step closer to being able to spread in humans. That is even more likely when the virus spreads in an animal that people tend to spend a lot of time interacting with.

This is partly why the virus’s spread in dairy cattle is so troubling. The form of the virus that is spreading in cows is slightly different from the one that had been circulating in migrating birds, says Lakdawala. The mutations in this virus have likely enabled it to spread more easily among the animals.

Evidence suggests that the virus is spreading through the use of shared milking machinery within cattle herds. Infected milk can contaminate the equipment, allowing the virus to infect the udder of another cow. The virus is also spreading between herds, possibly by hitching a ride on people that work on multiple farms, or via other animals, or potentially via airborne droplets.

Milk from infected cows can look thickened and yogurt-like, and farmers tend to pour it down drains. This ends up irrigating farms, says Lakdawala. “Unless the virus is inactivated, it just remains infectious in the environment,” she says. Other animals could be exposed to the virus this way.

Hidden infections

So far, 14 states have reported a total of 208 infected cattle herds. Some states have reported only one or two cases among their cattle. But this is extremely unlikely to represent the full picture, given how rapidly the virus is spreading among herds in states that are doing more testing, says Peacock. In Colorado, where state-licensed dairy farms that sell pasteurized milk are required to submit milk samples for weekly testing, 64 herds have been reported to be affected. Neighboring Wyoming, which does not have the same requirements, has reported only one affected herd.

We don’t have a good idea of how many people have been infected either, says Lakdawala. The official count from the CDC is 14 people since April 2024, but testing is not routine, and because symptoms are currently fairly mild in people, we’re likely to be missing a lot of cases.

“It’s very frustrating, because there are just huge gaps in the data that’s coming out,” says Peacock. “I don’t think it’s unfair to say that a lot of outside observers don’t think this outbreak is being taken particularly seriously.”

And the virus is already spreading from cows back into wild birds and poultry, says Lakdawala: “There is definitely a concern that the virus is going to [become more widespread] in birds and cattle … but also other animals that ruminate, like goats.”

It may already be too late to rid America’s cattle herds of the bird flu virus. If it continues to circulate, it could become stable in the population. This is what has happened with flu in pigs around the world. That could also spell disaster—not only would the virus represent a constant risk to humans and other animals that come into contact with the cows, but it could also evolve over time. We can’t predict how this evolution might take shape, but there’s a chance the result could be a form of the virus that is better at spreading in people or causing fatal infections.

So far, it is clear that the virus has mutated but hasn’t yet acquired any of these more dangerous mutations, says Michael Tisza, a bioinformatics scientist at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston. That being said, Tisza and his colleagues have been looking for the virus in wastewater from 10 cities in Texas—and they have found H5N1 in all of them.

Tisza and his colleagues don’t know where this virus is coming from—whether it’s coming from birds, milk, or infected people, for example. But the team didn’t find any signal of the virus in wastewater during 2022 or 2023, when there were outbreaks in migratory birds and poultry. “In 2024, it’s been a different story,” says Tisza. “We’ve seen it a lot.”

Together, the evidence that the virus is evolving and spreading among mammals, and specifically cattle, has put virologists on high alert. “This virus is not causing a human pandemic right now, which is great,” says Tisza. “But it is a virus of pandemic potential.”

Flu season is coming—and so is the risk of an all-new bird flu

This article first appeared in The Checkup, MIT Technology Review’s weekly biotech newsletter. To receive it in your inbox every Thursday, and read articles like this first, sign up here.

September will soon be drawing to a close. The kids are back to school, and those of us in the Northern Hemisphere are experiencing the joys the end of summer brings: the cooling temperatures, the falling leaves, and, inevitably, the start of flu season.

I was reminded of that fact when my littlest woke me for an early-morning cuddle, sneezed into my face, and wiped her nose on my pajamas. I booked her flu vaccine the next morning.

In the US, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends the flu vaccine for everyone over six months old. This year, following the spread of the “bird flu” H5N1 in cattle, the CDC is especially urging dairy farm workers to get vaccinated. At the end of July, the organization announced a $10 million plan to deliver free flu shots to people who work with livestock.

The goal is not only to protect those workers from seasonal flu, but to protect us all from a potentially more devastating consequence: the emergence of a new form of flu that could trigger another pandemic. That hasn’t happened yet, but unfortunately, it’s looking increasingly possible.

First, it’s worth noting that flu viruses experience subtle changes in their genetic makeup all the time. This allows the virus to evolve rapidly, and it is why flu vaccines need to be updated every year, depending on which form of the virus is most likely to be circulating.

More dramatic genetic changes can take place when multiple flu viruses infect a single animal. The genome of a flu virus is made up of eight segments. When two different viruses end up in the same cell, they can swap segments with each other.

These swapping events can create all-new viruses. It’s impossible to predict exactly what will result, but there’s always a chance that the new virus will be easily spread or cause more serious disease than either of its predecessors.

The fear is that farm workers who get seasonal flu could also pick up bird flu from cows. Those people could become unwitting incubators for deadly new flu strains and end up passing them on to the people around them. “That is exactly how we think pandemics start,” says Thomas Peacock, a virologist at the Pirbright Institute in Woking, UK.

The virus responsible for the 2009 swine flu pandemic is thought to have come about this way. Its genome suggested it had resulted from the genetic reassortment of a mix of flu viruses, including some thought to largely infect pigs and others that originated in birds. Viruses with genes from both a human flu and a bird flu are thought to have been responsible for pandemics in 1918, 1957, and 1968, too.

The CDC is hoping that vaccinating these individuals against seasonal flu might lower the risk of history repeating. But unfortunately, it’s not an airtight solution. For a start, not everyone will get vaccinated. Around 45% of US agricultural workers are undocumented migrants, a group that tends to have low vaccination rates

Even if every farm worker were to be vaccinated, not all of them would be fully protected against getting sick with flu. The flu vaccine used in the US in 2019-2020 was 39% effective, but the one used in the 2004-2005 flu season was only 10% effective.

“It’s not a bad idea, but I don’t think it can get anywhere close to mitigating the underlying risk,” says Peacock.

I last reported on bird flu in February 2023. Back then, the virus was decimating bird populations, but there were no signs that it was making the jump to mammals, and it didn’t appear to be posing a risk to humans. “We don’t need to panic about a bird flu pandemic—yet,” was my conclusion at the time. Today, the picture is different. After speaking to virologists and scientists who are trying to track the spread of the current bird flu, I’ll admit that I am much more concerned about the potential for another pandemic.

The main advice for people who don’t work on farms is to avoid raw milk and dead animals, both of which could be harboring the virus. For the most part, we’re reliant on government agencies to monitor and limit the spread of this virus. And the limited actions that have been taken to date don’t exactly inspire much confidence.

“The barn door’s already open,” says Peacock. “This virus is already out and about.”


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We don’t know how many dairy herds in the US are infected with H5N1 as the virus continues to spread. It could end up sticking around in farms forever, virologists told me earlier this week.

Manufacturing flu vaccines is a slow process that relies on eggs. But scientists hope mRNA flu vaccines could offer a quicker, cheaper, and more effective alternative.

Some flu vaccines are already made without eggs. One makes use of a virus synthesized in insect cells. Egg-free vaccines might even work better than those made using eggs, as Cassandra Willyard reported earlier this year.

Chickens are especially vulnerable to H5N1. Some scientists are exploring ways to edit the animals’ genes to make them more resilient to the virus, as Abdullahi Tsanni reported last year.

From around the web

Microplastics are everywhere. They even get inside our brains, possibly via our noses. (JAMA Network Open)

The majority of face transplants survive for at least 10 years, research has found. Of the 50 first face transplants, which were carried out across 11 countries, 85% survived for five years, and 74% for 10 years. (JAMA Surgery)

Don’t throw away that placenta! The organ holds clues to health and disease, and instead of being disposed of after birth, it should be carefully studied instead, scientists say. (Trends in Molecular Medicine)

In June, the drug lenacapavir was shown to be 100% effective at preventing HIV in women and adolescent girls. But while the drug was tested on women in Africa, it remains unavailable to most of them. (STAT)

We’re still getting to grips with what endometriosis is, how it works, and how to treat it. Women with the condition appear to have differences in their brain’s gray matter that can’t be explained by pelvic pain alone. (Human Reproduction)

Neuroscientists and architects are using this enormous laboratory to make buildings better

Have you ever found yourself lost in a building that felt impossible to navigate? Thoughtful building design should center on the people who will be using those buildings. But that’s no mean feat.

It’s not just about navigation, either. Just think of an office that left you feeling sleepy or unproductive, or perhaps a health center that had a less-than-reviving atmosphere. A design that works for some people might not work for others. People have different minds and bodies, and varying wants and needs. So how can we factor them all in?

To answer that question, neuroscientists and architects are joining forces at an enormous laboratory in East London—one that allows researchers to build simulated worlds. In this lab, scientists can control light, temperature, and sound. They can create the illusion of a foggy night, or the tinkle of morning birdsong.

And they can study how volunteers respond to these environments, whether they be simulations of grocery stores, hospitals, pedestrian crossings, or schools. That’s how I found myself wandering around a fake art gallery, wearing a modified baseball cap with a sensor that tracked my movements.

I first visited the Person-Environment-Activity Research Lab, referred to as PEARL, back in July. I’d been chatting to Hugo Spiers, a neuroscientist based at University College London, about the use of video games to study how people navigate. Spiers had told me he was working on another project: exploring how people navigate a lifelike environment, and how they respond during evacuations (which, depending on the situation, could be a matter of life or death).

For their research, Spiers and his colleagues set up what they call a “mocked-up art gallery” within PEARL. The center in its entirety is pretty huge as labs go, measuring around 100 meters in length and 40 meters across, with 10-meter-high ceilings in places. There’s no other research center in the world like this, Spiers told me.

The gallery setup looked a little like a maze from above, with a pathway created out of hanging black sheets. The exhibits themselves were videos of dramatic artworks that had been created by UCL students.

When I visited in July, Spiers and his colleagues were running a small pilot study to trial their setup. As a volunteer participant, I was handed a numbered black cap with a square board on top, marked with a large QR code. This code would be tracked by cameras above and around the gallery. The cap also carried a sensor, transmitting radio signals to devices around the maze that could pinpoint my location within a range of 15 centimeters.

At first, all the volunteers (most of whom seemed to be students) were asked to explore the gallery as we would any other. I meandered around, watching the videos, and eavesdropping on the other volunteers, who were chatting about their research and upcoming dissertation deadlines. It all felt pretty pleasant and calm.

That feeling dissipated in the second part of the experiment, when we were each given a list of numbers, told that each one referred to a numbered screen, and informed that we had to visit all the screens in the order in which they appeared on our lists. “Good luck, everybody,” Spiers said.

Suddenly everyone seemed to be rushing around, slipping past each other and trying to move quickly while avoiding collisions. “It’s all got a bit frantic, hasn’t it?” I heard one volunteer comment as I accidentally bumped into another. I hadn’t managed to complete the task by the time Spiers told us the experiment was over. As I walked to the exit, I noticed that some people were visibly out of breath.

The full study took place on Wednesday, September 11. This time, there were around 100 volunteers (I wasn’t one of them). And while almost everyone was wearing a modified baseball cap, some had more complicated gear, including EEG caps to measure brainwaves, or caps that use near-infrared spectroscopy to measure blood flow in the brain. Some people were even wearing eye-tracking devices that monitored which direction they were looking.

“We will do something quite remarkable today,” Spiers told the volunteers, staff, and observers as the experiment started. Taking such detailed measurements from so many individuals in such a setting represented “a world first,” he said.

I have to say that being an observer was much more fun than being a participant. Gone was the stress of remembering instructions and speeding around a maze. Here in my seat, I could watch as the data collected from the cameras and sensors was projected onto a screen. The volunteers, represented as squiggly colored lines, made their way through the gallery in a way that reminded me of the game Snake.

The study itself was similar to the pilot study, although this time the volunteers were given additional tasks. At one point, they were given an envelope with the name of a town or city in it, and asked to find others in the group who had been given the same one. It was fascinating to see the groups form. Some had the names of destination cities like Bangkok, while others had been assigned fairly nondescript English towns like Slough, made famous as the setting of the British television series The Office. At another point, the volunteers were asked to evacuate the gallery from the nearest exit.

The data collected in this study represents something of a treasure trove for researchers like Spiers and his colleagues. The team is hoping to learn more about how people navigate a space, and whether they move differently if they are alone or in a group. How do friends and strangers interact, and does this depend on whether they have certain types of material to bond over? How do people respond to evacuations—will they take the nearest exit as directed, or will they run on autopilot to the exit they used to enter the space in the first place?

All this information is valuable to neuroscientists like Spiers, but it’s also useful to architects like his colleague Fiona Zisch, who is based at UCL’s Bartlett School of Architecture. “We do really care about how people feel about the places we design for them,” Zisch tells me. The findings can guide not only the construction of new buildings, but also efforts to modify and redesign existing ones.

PEARL was built in 2021 and has already been used to help engineers, scientists, and architects explore how neurodivergent people use grocery stores, and the ideal lighting to use for pedestrian crossings, for example. Zisch herself is passionate about creating equitable spaces—particularly for health and education—that everyone can make use of in the best possible way.

In the past, models used in architecture have been developed with typically built, able-bodied men in mind. “But not everyone is a 6’2″ male with a briefcase,” Zisch tells me. Age, gender, height, and a range of physical and psychological factors can all influence how a person will use a building. “We want to improve not just the space, but the experience of the space,” says Zisch. Good architecture isn’t just about creating stunning features; it’s about subtle adaptations that might not even be noticeable to most people, she says.

The art gallery study is just the first step for researchers like Zisch and Spiers, who plan to explore other aspects of neuroscience and architecture in more simulated environments at PEARL. The team won’t have results for a while yet. But it’s a fascinating start. Watch this space.


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Brain-monitoring technology has come a long way, and tech designed to read our minds and probe our memories is already being used. Futurist and legal ethicist Nita Farahany explained why we need laws to protect our cognitive liberty in a previous edition of The Checkup.

Listening in on the brain can reveal surprising insights into how this mysterious organ works. One team of neuroscientists found that our brains seem to oscillate between states of order and chaos.

Last year, MIT Technology Review published our design issue of the magazine. If you’re curious, this piece on the history and future of the word “design,” by Nicholas de Monchaux, head of architecture at MIT, might be a good place to start

Design covers much more than buildings, of course. Designers are creating new ways for users of prosthetic devices to feel more comfortable in their own skin—some of which have third thumbs, spikes, or “superhero skins.”

Achim Menges is an architect creating what he calls “self-shaping” structures with wood, which can twist and curve with changes in humidity. His approach is a low-energy way to make complex curved architectures, Menges told John Wiegand.

From around the web

Scientists are meant to destroy research samples of the poliovirus, as part of efforts to eradicate the disease it causes. But lab leaks of the virus may be more common than we’d like to think. (Science)

Neurofeedback allows people to watch their own brain activity in real time, and learn to control it. It could be a useful way to combat the impacts of stress. (Trends in Neurosciences)

Microbes, some of which cause disease in people, can travel over a thousand miles on wind, researchers have shown. Some appear to be able to survive their journey. (The Guardian)

Is the X chromosome involved in Alzheimer’s disease? A study of over a million people suggests so. (JAMA Neurology)

A growing number of men are paying thousands of dollars a year for testosterone therapies that are meant to improve their physical performance. But some are left with enlarged breasts, shrunken testicles, blood clots, and infertility. (The Wall Street Journal)

Preparing for the unknown: A guide to future-proofing imaging IT

In an era of unprecedented technological advancement, the health-care industry stands at a crossroad. As health expenditure continues to outpace GDP in many countries, health-care executives grapple with crucial decisions on investment prioritization for digitization, innovation, and digital transformation. The imperative to provide high-quality, patient-centric care in an increasingly digital world has never been more pressing. At the forefront of this transformation is imaging IT—a critical component that’s evolving to meet the challenges of modern health care.

The future of imaging IT is characterized by interconnected systems, advanced analytics, robust data security, AI-driven enhancements, and agile infrastructure. Organizations that embrace these trends will be well-positioned to thrive in the changing health-care landscape. But what exactly does this future look like, and how can health-care providers prepare for it?

Networked care models: The new paradigm

The adoption of networked care models is set to revolutionize health-care delivery. These models foster collaboration among stakeholders, making patient information readily available and leading to more personalized and efficient care. As we move forward, expect to see health-care organizations increasingly investing in technologies that enable seamless data sharing and interoperability.

Imagine a scenario where a patient’s entire medical history, including imaging data from various specialists, is instantly accessible to any authorized health-care provider. This level of connectivity not only improves diagnosis and treatment but also enhances the overall patient experience.

Data integration and analytics: Unlocking insights

True data integration is becoming the norm in health care. Robust integrated image and data management solutions (IDM) are consolidating patient data from diverse sources. But the real game-changer lies in the application of advanced analytics and AI to this treasure trove of information.

By leveraging these technologies, medical professionals can extract meaningful insights from complex data sets, leading to quicker and more accurate diagnoses and treatment decisions. The potential for improving patient outcomes through data-driven decision-making is immense.

A case in point is the implementation of Syngo Carbon Image and Data Management (IDM) at Tirol Kliniken GmbH in Innsbruck, Austria. This solution consolidates all patient-centric data points in one place, including different image and photo formats, DICOM CDs, and digitalized video sources from endoscopy or microscopy. The system digitizes all documents in their raw formats, enabling the distribution of native, actionable data throughout the enterprise.

Data privacy and edge computing: Balancing innovation and security

As health care becomes increasingly data-driven, concerns about data privacy remain paramount. Enter edge computing—a solution that enables the processing of sensitive patient data locally, reducing the risk of data breaches during processing and transmission.

This approach is crucial for health-care facilities aiming to maintain patient trust while adopting advanced technologies. By keeping data processing close to the source, health-care providers can leverage cutting-edge analytics without compromising on security.

Workflow integration and AI: Enhancing efficiency and accuracy

The integration of AI into medical imaging workflows is set to dramatically improve efficiency, accuracy, and the overall quality of patient care. AI-powered solutions are becoming increasingly common, reducing the burden of repetitive tasks and speeding up diagnosis.

From automated image analysis to predictive modeling, AI is transforming every aspect of the imaging workflow. This not only improves operational efficiency but also allows health-care professionals to focus more on patient care and complex cases that require human expertise.

A quantitative analysis at the Medical University of South Carolina demonstrates the impact of AI integration. With the support of deep learning algorithms fully embedded in the clinical workflow, cardiothoracic radiologists exhibited a reduction in chest CT interpretation times of 22.1% compared to workflows without AI support.

Virtualization: The key to agility

To future-proof their IT infrastructure, health-care organizations are turning to virtualization. This approach allows for modularization and flexibility, making it easier to adapt to rapidly evolving technologies such as AI-driven diagnostics.

Container technology is playing a pivotal role in optimizing resource utilization and scalability. By embracing virtualization, health-care providers can ensure their IT systems remain agile and responsive to changing needs.

Standardization and compliance: Ensuring long-term compatibility

As imaging IT systems evolve, adherence to industry standards and compliance requirements remains crucial. These systems need to seamlessly interact with Electronic Health Records (EHRs), medical devices, and other critical systems.

This adherence ensures long-term compatibility and the ability to accommodate emerging technologies. It also facilitates smoother integration of new solutions into existing IT ecosystems, reducing implementation challenges and costs.

Real-world success stories

The benefits of these technologies are not theoretical—they are being realized in health-care organizations around the world. For instance, the virtualization strategy implemented at University Hospital Essen (UME), one of Germany’s largest university hospitals, has dramatically improved the hospital’s ability to manage increasing data volumes and applications. UME’s critical clinical information systems now run on modular and virtualized systems, allowing experts to design and use innovative solutions, including AI tools that automate tasks previously done manually by IT and medical staff.

Similarly, the PANCAIM project leverages edge computing for pancreatic cancer detection. This EU-funded initiative uses Siemens Healthineers’ edge computing approach to develop and validate AI algorithms. At Karolinska Institutet, Sweden, an algorithm was implemented for a real pancreatic cancer case, ensuring sensitive patient data remains within the hospital while advancing AI validation in clinical settings.

Another innovative approach is the concept of a Common Patient Data Model (CPDM). This standardized framework defines how patient data is organized, stored, and exchanged across different health-care systems and platforms, addressing interoperability challenges in the current health-care landscape.

The road ahead: Continuous innovation

As we look to the future, it’s clear that technological advancements in radiology will continue at a rapid pace. To stay competitive and provide the best patient care, health-care organizations must prioritize ongoing innovation and the adoption of new technologies.

This includes not only IT systems but also medical devices and treatment methodologies. The health-care providers who embrace this ethos of continuous improvement will be best positioned to navigate the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

In conclusion, the future of imaging IT is bright, promising unprecedented levels of efficiency, accuracy, and patient-centricity. By embracing networked care models, leveraging advanced analytics and AI, prioritizing data security, and maintaining agile IT infrastructure, health-care organizations can ensure they’re prepared for whatever the future may hold.

The journey towards future-proof imaging IT may seem daunting, but it’s a necessary evolution in our quest to provide the best possible health care. As we stand on the brink of this new era, one thing is clear: the future of health care is digital, data-driven, and more connected than ever before.

If you want to learn more, you can find more information from Siemens Healthineers.

Syngo Carbon consists of several products which are (medical) devices in their own right. Some products are under development and not commercially available. Future availability cannot be ensured.

The results by Siemens Healthineers customers described herein are based on results that were achieved in the customer’s unique setting. Since there is no “typical” hospital and many variables exist (e.g., hospital size, case mix, level of IT adoption), it cannot be guaranteed that other customers will achieve the same results.

This content was produced by Siemens Healthineers. It was not written by MIT Technology Review’s editorial staff.

A new smart mask analyzes your breath to monitor your health

Your breath can give away a lot about you. Each exhalation contains all sorts of compounds, including possible biomarkers for disease or lung conditions, that could give doctors a valuable insight into your health.

Now a new smart mask, developed by a team at the California Institute of Technology, could help doctors check your breath for these signals continuously and in a noninvasive way. A patient could wear the mask at home, measure their own levels, and then go to the doctor if a flare-up is likely. 

“They don’t have to come to the clinic to assess their inflammation level,” says Wei Gao, professor of Medical Engineering at Caltech and one of the smart mask’s creators. “This can be lifesaving.”

The smart mask, details of which were published in Science today, uses a two-part cooling system to chill the breath of its wearer. The cooling turns the breath into exhaled breath condensate (EBC). 

EBC, essentially a liquid version of someone’s breath, is easier to analyze, because biomarkers like nitrite and alcohol content are more concentrated in a liquid than in a gas. The mask design takes inspiration from plants’ capillary abilities, using a series of microfluidic modules that create pressure to push the EBC fluid around to sensors in the mask.

The sensors are connected via Bluetooth to a device like a phone, where the patient has access to real-time health readings.

“The biggest challenge has always been collecting real-time samples. This problem has been solved. That’s a paradigm shift,” says Rajan Chakrabarty, professor of Environmental and Chemical Engineering at Washington University in St. Louis and who was not involved in the research.

The Caltech team tested the smart mask with patients, including several who had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma or had just gotten over a covid-19 infection. They were testing the masks for comfort and breathability, but they also wanted to see if the masks actually worked at tracking useful biomarkers throughout a patient’s daily activities, such as exercise and work. 

The mask picked up on higher levels of nitrite in patients who had asthma or other conditions that involved inflamed airways. It also picked up on higher alcohol content after a patient went out drinking, which demonstrates another potential application of the mask. Analyzing breath this way is more accurate than the typical breathalyzer test, which involves a patient blowing into a device. Blowing can produce imprecise results due to alcohol in saliva being spit out.

The researchers hope this is just the beginning. They plan to test the masks on a larger population, and if all goes well, commercialize the masks to get them out to a wider audience. They hope the mask will be a platform for broader application, where sensors for a range of biomarkers could be slotted in and out. 

“What I would like to be able to do is take off their sensors, put in my sensors, and this becomes the building block for doing all other types of development,” says Albert Titus, professor and chair of the Department of Biomedical Engineering at the University at Buffalo and who wasn’t part of the Caltech team. “That’s where I’d like to see it go.”

For example, there may be the possibility to measure ketones in the breath, a high level of which is a sign of diabetes, or glucose levels, to help people with diabetes monitor their condition.

“The mask can be reconfigured for many different applications,” says Gao.

Maybe you will be able to live past 122

The UK’s Office of National Statistics has an online life expectancy calculator. Enter your age and sex, and the website will, using national averages, spit out the age at which you can expect to pop your clogs. For me, that figure is coming out at 88 years old.

That’s not too bad, I figure, given that globally, life expectancy is around 73. But I’m also aware that this is a lowball figure for many in the longevity movement, which has surged in recent years. When I interview a scientist, doctor, or investor in the field, I always like to ask about personal goals. I’ve heard all sorts. Some have told me they want an extra decade of healthy life. Many want to get to 120, close to the current known limit of human age. Others have told me they want to stick around until they’re 200. And some have told me they don’t want to put a number on it; they just want to live for as long as they possibly can—potentially indefinitely.

How far can they go? This is a good time to ask the question. The longevity scene is having a moment, thanks to a combination of scientific advances, public interest, and an unprecedented level of investment. A few key areas of research suggest that we might be able to push human life spans further, and potentially reverse at least some signs of aging.

Take, for example, the concept of cellular reprogramming. Nobel Prize–winning research has shown it is possible to return adult cells to a “younger” state more like that of a stem cell. Billions of dollars have been poured into trying to transform this discovery into a therapy that could wind back the age of a person’s cells and tissues, potentially restoring some elements of youth.

Many other avenues are being explored, including a diabetes drug that could have broad health benefits; drugs based on a potential anti-aging compound discovered in the soil of Rapa Nui (Easter Island); attempts to rejuvenate the immune system; gene therapies designed to boost muscle or extend the number of times our cells can divide; and many, many more. Other researchers are pursuing ways to clear out the aged, worn-out cells in our bodies. These senescent cells appear to pump out chemicals that harm the surrounding tissues. Around eight years ago, scientists found that mice cleared of senescent cells lived 25% longer than untreated ones. They also had healthier hearts and took much longer to develop age-related diseases like cancer and cataracts. They even looked younger.

Unfortunately, human trials of senolytics—drugs that target senescent cells—haven’t been quite as successful. Unity Biotechnology, a company cofounded by leading researchers in the field, tested such a drug in people with osteoarthritis. In 2020, the company officially abandoned that drug after it was found to be no better than a placebo in treating the condition.

That doesn’t mean we won’t one day figure out how to treat age-related diseases, or even aging itself, by targeting senescent cells. But it does illustrate how complicated the biology of aging is. Researchers can’t even agree on what the exact mechanisms of aging are and which they should be targeting. Debates continue to rage over how long it’s possible for humans to live—and whether there is a limit at all.

Still, we are getting better at testing potential therapies in more humanlike models. We’re finding new and improved ways to measure the aging process itself. The X Prize is offering $101 million to researchers who find a way to restore at least 10 years of “muscle, cognitive, and immune function” in 65- to 80-year-olds with a treatment that takes one year or less to administer. Given that the competition runs for seven years, it’s a tall order; Jamie Justice, executive director of the X Prize’s health-span domain, told me she initially fought back on the challenging goal and told the organization’s founder, Peter Diamandis, there was “no way” researchers could achieve it. But we’ve seen stranger things in science. 

Some people are banking on this kind of progress. Not just the billionaires who have already spent millions of dollars and a significant chunk of their time on strategies that might help them defy aging, but also the people who have opted for cryopreservation. There are hundreds of bodies in storage—bodies of people who believed they might one day be reanimated. For them, the hopes are slim. I asked Justice whether she thought they stood a chance at a second life. “Honest answer?” she said. “No.”

It looks likely that something will be developed in the coming decades that will help us live longer, in better health. Not an elixir for eternal life, but perhaps something—or a few somethings—that can help us stave off some of the age-related diseases that tend to kill a lot of us. Such therapies may well push life expectancy up. I don’t feel we need a massive increase, but perhaps I’ll feel differently when I’m approaching 88.

The ONS website gives me a one in four chance of making it to 96, and a one in 10 chance of seeing my 100th birthday. To me, that sounds like an impressive number—as long as I get there in semi-decent health.

I’d still be a long way from the current record of 122 years. But it might just be that there are some limitations we must simply come to terms with—as individuals and in society at large. In a 2017 paper making the case for a limit to the human life span, scientists Jan Vijg and Eric Le Bourg wrote something that has stuck with me—and is worth bearing in mind when considering the future of human longevity: “A species does not need to live for eternity to thrive.” 

Beyond gene-edited babies: the possible paths for tinkering with human evolution

In 2016, I attended a large meeting of journalists in Washington, DC. The keynote speaker was Jennifer Doudna, who just a few years before had co-invented CRISPR, a revolutionary method of changing genes that was sweeping across biology labs because it was so easy to use. With its discovery, Doudna explained, humanity had achieved the ability to change its own fundamental molecular nature. And that capability came with both possibility and danger. One of her biggest fears, she said, was “waking up one morning and reading about the first CRISPR baby”—a child with deliberately altered genes baked in from the start.  

As a journalist specializing in genetic engineering—the weirder the better—I had a different fear. A CRISPR baby would be a story of the century, and I worried some other journalist would get the scoop. Gene editing had become the biggest subject on the biotech beat, and once a team in China had altered the DNA of a monkey to introduce customized mutations, it seemed obvious that further envelope-pushing wasn’t far off. 

If anyone did create an edited baby, it would raise moral and ethical issues, among the profoundest of which, Doudna had told me, was that doing so would be “changing human evolution.” Any gene alterations made to an embryo that successfully developed into a baby would get passed on to any children of its own, via what’s known as the germline. What kind of scientist would be bold enough to try that? 

Two years and nearly 8,000 miles in an airplane seat later, I found the answer. At a hotel in Guangzhou, China, I joined a documentary film crew for a meeting with a biophysicist named He Jiankui, who appeared with a retinue of advisors. During the meeting, He was immensely gregarious and spoke excitedly about his research on embryos of mice, monkeys, and humans, and about his eventual plans to improve human health by adding beneficial genes to people’s bodies from birth. Still imagining that such a step must lie at least some way off, I asked if the technology was truly ready for such an undertaking. 

“Ready,” He said. Then, after a laden pause: “Almost ready.”

Why wait 100,000 years for natural selection to do its job? For a few hundred dollars in chemicals, you could try to install these changes in an embryo in 10 minutes.

Four weeks later, I learned that he’d already done it, when I found data that He had placed online describing the genetic profiles of two gene-edited human fetuses—that is, ”CRISPR babies” in gestation—as well an explanation of his plan, which was to create humans immune to HIV. He had targeted a gene called CCR5, which in some people has a variation known to protect against HIV infection. It’s rare for numbers in a spreadsheet to make the hair on your arms stand up, although maybe some climatologists feel the same way seeing the latest Arctic temperatures. It appeared that something historic—and frightening—had already happened. In our story breaking the news that same day, I ventured that the birth of genetically tailored humans would be something between a medical breakthrough and the start of a slippery slope of human enhancement. 

For his actions, He was later sentenced to three years in prison, and his scientific practices were roundly excoriated. The edits he made, on what proved to be twin girls (and a third baby, revealed later), had in fact been carelessly imposed, almost in an out-of-control fashion, according to his own data. And I was among a flock of critics—in the media and academia—who would subject He and his circle of advisors to Promethean-level torment via a daily stream of articles and exposés. Just this spring, Fyodor Urnov, a gene-editing specialist at the University of California, Berkeley, lashed out on X, calling He a scientific “pyromaniac” and comparing him to a Balrog, a demon from J.R.R. Tolkien’s The Lord of the Rings. It could seem as if He’s crime wasn’t just medical wrongdoing but daring to take the wheel of the very processes that brought you, me, and him into being. 

Futurists who write about the destiny of humankind have imagined all sorts of changes. We’ll all be given auxiliary chromosomes loaded with genetic goodies, or maybe we’ll march through life as a member of a pod of identical clones. Perhaps sex will become outdated as we reproduce exclusively through our stem cells. Or human colonists on another planet will be isolated so long that they become their own species. The thing about He’s idea, though, is that he drew it from scientific realities close at hand. Just as some gene mutations cause awful, rare diseases, others are being discovered that lend a few people the ability to resist common ones, like diabetes, heart disease, Alzheimer’s—and HIV. Such beneficial, superpower-like traits might spread to the rest of humanity, given enough time. But why wait 100,000 years for natural selection to do its job? For a few hundred dollars in chemicals, you could try to install these changes in an embryo in 10 minutes. That is, in theory, the easiest way to go about making such changes—it’s just one cell to start with. 

Editing human embryos is restricted in much of the world—and making an edited baby is flatly illegal in most countries surveyed by legal scholars. But advancing technology could render the embryo issue moot. New ways of adding CRISPR to the bodies of people already born—children and adults—could let them easily receive changes as well. Indeed, if you are curious what the human genome could look like in 125 years, it’s possible that many people will be the beneficiaries of multiple rare, but useful, gene mutations currently found in only small segments of the population. These could protect us against common diseases and infections, but eventually they could also yield frank improvements in other traits, such as height, metabolism, or even cognition. These changes would not be passed on genetically to people’s offspring, but if they were widely distributed, they too would become a form of human-directed self-evolution—easily as big a deal as the emergence of computer intelligence or the engineering of the physical world around us.

I was surprised to learn that even as He’s critics take issue with his methods, they see the basic stratagem as inevitable. When I asked Urnov, who helped coin the term “genome editing” in 2005, what the human genome could be like in, say, a century, he readily agreed that improvements using superpower genes will probably be widely introduced into adults—and embryos—as the technology to do so improves. But he warned that he doesn’t necessarily trust humanity to do things the right way. Some groups will probably obtain the health benefits before others. And commercial interests could eventually take the trend in unhelpful directions—much as algorithms keep his students’ noses pasted, unnaturally, to the screens of their mobile phones. “I would say my enthusiasm for what the human genome is going to be in 100 years is tempered by our history of a lack of moderation and wisdom,” he said. “You don’t need to be Aldous Huxley to start writing dystopias.”

Editing early

At around 10 p.m. Beijing time, He’s face flicked into view over the Tencent videoconferencing app. It was May 2024, nearly six years after I had first interviewed him, and he appeared in a loftlike space with a soaring ceiling and a wide-screen TV on a wall. Urnov had warned me not to speak with He, since it would be like asking “Bernie Madoff to opine about ethical investing.” But I wanted to speak to him, because he’s still one of the few scientists willing to promote the idea of broad improvements to humanity’s genes. 

Of course, it’s his fault everyone is so down on the idea. After his experiment, China formally made “implantation” of gene-edited human embryos into the uterus a crime. Funding sources evaporated. “He created this blowback, and it brought to a halt many people’s research. And there were not many to begin with,” says Paula Amato, a fertility doctor at Oregon Health and Science University who co-leads one of only two US teams that have ever reported editing human embryos in a lab.  “And the publicity—nobody wants to be associated with something that is considered scandalous or eugenic.”

After leaving prison in 2022, the Chinese biophysicist surprised nearly everyone by seeking to make a scientific comeback. At first, he floated ideas for DNA-based data storage and “affordable” cures for children who have muscular dystrophy. But then, in summer 2023, he posted to social media that he intended to return to research on how to change embryos with gene editing, with the caveat that “no human embryo will be implanted for pregnancy.” His new interest was a gene called APP, or amyloid precursor protein. It’s known that people who possess a very rare version, or “allele,” of this gene almost never develop Alzheimer’s disease

In our video call, He said the APP gene is the main focus of his research now and that he is determining how to change it. The work, he says, is not being conducted on human embryos, but rather on mice and on kidney cells, using an updated form of CRISPR called base editing, which can flip individual letters of DNA without breaking the molecule. 

“We just want to expand the protective allele from small amounts of lucky people to maybe most people,” He told me. And if you made the adjustment at the moment an egg is fertilized, you would only have to change one cell in order for the change to take hold in the embryo and, eventually, everywhere in a person’s brain. Trying to edit an individual’s brain after birth “is as hard a delivering a person to the moon,” He said. “But if you deliver gene editing to an embryo, it’s as easy as driving home.” 

In the future, He said, human embryos will “obviously” be corrected for all severe genetic diseases. But they will also receive “a panel” of “perhaps 20 or 30” edits to improve health. (If you’ve seen the sci-fi film Gattaca, it takes place in a world where such touch-ups are routine—leading to stigmatization of the movie’s hero, a would-be space pilot who lacks them.) One of these would be to install the APP variant, which involves changing a single letter of DNA. Others would protect against diabetes, and maybe cancer and heart disease. He calls these proposed edits “genetic vaccines” and believes people in the future “won’t have to worry” about many of the things most likely to kill them today.  

Is He the person who will bring about this future? Last year, in what seemed to be a step toward his rehabilitation, he got a job heading a gene center at Wuchang University of Technology, a third-tier institution in Wuhan. But He said during our call that he had already left the position. He didn’t say what had caused the split but mentioned that a flurry of press coverage had “made people feel pressured.” One item, in a French financial paper, Les Echos, was titled “GMO babies: The secrets of a Chinese Frankenstein.” Now he carries out research at his own private lab, he says, with funding from Chinese and American supporters. He has early plans for a startup company. Could he tell me names and locations? “Of course not,” he said with a chuckle. 

little girl holding a snake

MICHAEL BYERS

It could be there is no lab, just a concept. But it’s a concept that is hard to dismiss. Would you give your child a gene tweak—a swap of a single genetic letter among the 3 billion that run the length of the genome—to prevent Alzheimer’s, the mind thief that’s the seventh-leading cause of death in the US? Polls find that the American public is about evenly split on the ethics of adding disease resistance traits to embryos. A sizable minority, though, would go further. A 2023 survey published in Science found that nearly 30% of people would edit an embryo if it enhanced the resulting child’s chance of attending a top-ranked college. 

The benefits of the genetic variant He claims to be working with were discovered by the Icelandic gene-hunting company deCode Genetics. Twenty-six years ago, in 1998, its founder, a doctor named Kári Stefánsson, got the green light to obtain medical records and DNA from Iceland’s citizens, allowing deCode to amass one of the first large national gene databases. Several similar large biobanks now operate, including one in the United Kingdom, which recently finished sequencing the genomes of 500,000 volunteers. These biobanks make it possible to do computerized searches to find relationships between people’s genetic makeup and real-life differences like how long they live, what diseases they get, and even how much beer they drink. The result is a statistical index of how strongly every possible difference in human DNA affects every trait that can be measured. 

In 2012, deCode’s geneticists used the technique to study a tiny change in the APP gene and determined that the individuals who had it rarely developed Alzheimer’s. They otherwise seemed healthy. In fact, they seemed particularly sharp in old age and appeared to live longer, too. Lab tests confirmed that the change reduces the production of brain plaques, the abnormal clumps of protein that are a hallmark of the disease. 

“This is beginning to be about the essence of who we are as a species.”

Kári Stefánsson, founder and CEO, deCode genetics

One way evolution works is when a small change or error appears in one baby’s DNA. If the change helps that person survive and reproduce, it will tend to become more common in the species—eventually, over many generations, even universal. This process is slow, but it’s visible to science. In 2018, for example, researchers determined that the Bajau, a group indigenous to Indonesia whose members collect food by diving, possess genetic changes associated with bigger spleens. This allows them to store more oxygenated red blood cells—an advantage in their lives. 

Even though the variation in the APP gene seems hugely beneficial, it’s a change that benefits old people, way past their reproductive years. So it’s not the kind of advantage natural selection can readily act on. But we could act on it. That is what technology-assisted evolution would look like—seizing on a variation we think is useful and spreading it. “The way, probably, that enhancement will be done will be to look at the population, look at people who have enhanced capabilities—whatever those might be,” the Israeli medical geneticist Ephrat Levy-Lahad said during a gene-editing summit last year. “You are going to be using variations that already exist in the population that you already have information on.”

One advantage of zeroing in on advantageous DNA changes that already exist in the population is that their effects are pretested. The people located by deCode were in their 80s and 90s. There didn’t seem to be anything different about them—except their unusually clear minds. Their lives—as seen from the computer screens of deCode’s biobank—served as a kind of long-term natural experiment. Yet scientists could not be fully confident placing this variant into an embryo, since the benefits or downsides might differ depending on what other genetic factors are already present, especially other Alzheimer’s risk genes. And it would be difficult to run a study to see what happens. In the case of APP, it would take 70 years for the final evidence to emerge. By that time, the scientists involved would all be dead. 

When I spoke with Stefánsson last year, he made the case both for and against altering genomes with “rare variants of large effect,” like the change in APP. “All of us would like to keep our marbles until we die. There is no question about it. And if you could, by pushing a button, install the kind of protection people with this mutation have, that would be desirable,” he said. But even if the technology to make this edit before birth exists, he says, the risks of doing so seem almost impossible to gauge: “You are not just affecting the person, but all their descendants forever. These are mutations that would allow for further selection and further evolution, so this is beginning to be about the essence of who we are as a species.”

Editing everyone

Some genetic engineers believe that editing embryos, though in theory easy to do, will always be held back by these grave uncertainties. Instead, they say, DNA editing in living adults could become easy enough to be used not only to correct rare diseases but to add enhanced capabilities to those who seek them. If that happens, editing for improvement could spread just as quickly as any consumer technology or medical fad. “I don’t think it’s going to be germline,” says George Church, a Harvard geneticist often sought out for his prognostications. “The 8 billion of us who are alive kind of constitute the marketplace.” For several years, Church has been circulating what he calls “my famous, or infamous, table of enhancements.” It’s a tally of gene variants that lend people superpowers, including APP and another that leads to extra-hard bones, which was found in a family that complained of not being able to stay afloat in swimming pools. The table is infamous because some believe Church’s inclusion of the HIV-protective CCR5 variant inspired He’s effort to edit it into the CRISPR babies.

Church believes novel gene treatments for very serious diseases, once proven, will start leading the way toward enhancements and improvements to people already born. “You’d constantly be tweaking and getting feedback,” he says—something that’s hard to do with the germline, since humans take so long to grow up. Changes to adult bodies would not be passed down, but Church thinks they could easily count as a form of heredity. He notes that railroads, eyeglasses, cell phones—and the knowledge of how to make and use all these technologies—are already all transmitted between generations. “We’re clearly inheriting even things that are inorganic,” he says. 

The biotechnology industry is already finding ways to emulate the effects of rare, beneficial variants. A new category of heart drugs, for instance, mimics the effect of a rare variation in a gene, called PCSK9, that helps maintain cholesterol levels. The variation, initially discovered in a few people in the US and Zimbabwe, blocks the gene’s activity and gives them ultra-low cholesterol levels for life. The drugs, taken every few weeks or months, work by blocking the PCSK9 protein. One biotech company, though, has started trying to edit the DNA of people’s liver cells (the site of cholesterol metabolism) to introduce the same effect permanently. 

For now, gene editing of adult bodies is still challenging and is held back by the difficulty of “delivering” the CRISPR instructions to thousands, or even billions of cells—often using viruses to carry the payloads. Organs like the brain and muscles are hard to access, and the treatments can be ordeals. Fatalities in studies aren’t unheard-of. But biotech companies are pouring dollars into new, sleeker ways to deliver CRISPR to hard-to-reach places. Some are designing special viruses that can home in on specific types of cells. Others are adopting nanoparticles similar to those used in the covid-19 vaccines, with the idea of introducing editors easily, and cheaply, via a shot in the arm. 

At the Innovative Genomics Institute, a center established by Doudna in Berkeley, California, researchers anticipate that as delivery improves, they will be able to create a kind of CRISPR conveyor belt that, with a few clicks of a mouse, allows doctors to design gene-editing treatments for any serious inherited condition that afflicts children, including immune deficiencies so uncommon that no company will take them on. “This is the trend in my field. We can capitalize on human genetics quite quickly, and the scope of the editable human will rapidly expand,” says Urnov, who works at the institute. “We know that already, today—and forget 2124, this is in 2024—we can build enough CRISPR for the entire planet. I really, really think that [this idea of] gene editing in a syringe will grow. And as it does, we’re going to start to face very clearly the question of how we equitably distribute these resources.” 

For now, gene-editing interventions are so complex and costly that only people in wealthy countries are receiving them. The first such therapy to get FDA approval, a treatment for sickle-cell disease, is priced at over $2 million and requires a lengthy hospital stay. Because it’s so difficult to administer, it’s not yet being offered in most of Africa, even though that is where sickle-cell disease is most common. Such disparities are now propelling efforts to greatly simplify gene editing, including a project jointly paid for by the Gates Foundation and the National Institutes of Health that aims to design “shot in the arm” CRISPR, potentially making cures scalable and “accessible to all.” A gene editor built along the lines of the covid-19 vaccine might cost only $1,000. The Gates Foundation sees the technology as a way to widely cure both sickle-cell and HIV—an “unmet need” in Africa, it says. To do that, the foundation is considering introducing into people’s bone marrow the exact HIV-defeating genetic change that He tried to install in embryos. 

Then there’s the risk that gene terrorists, or governments, could change people’s DNA without their permission or knowledge.

Scientists can foresee great benefits ahead—even a “final frontier of molecular liberty,” as Christopher Mason, a “space geneticist” at Weill Cornell Medicine in New York, characterizes it. Mason works with newer types of gene editors that can turn genes on or off temporarily. He is using these in his lab to make cells resistant to radiation damage. The technology could be helpful to astronauts or, he says, for a weekend of “recreational genomics”—say, boosting your repair genes in preparation to visit the site of the Chernobyl power plant. The technique is “getting to be, I actually think it is, a euphoric application of genetic technologies,” says Mason. “We can say, hey, find a spot on the genome and flip a light switch on or off on any given gene to control its expression at a whim.”  

Easy delivery of gene editors to adult bodies could give rise to policy questions just as urgent as the ones raised by the CRISPR babies. Whether we encourage genetic enhancement—in particular, free-market genome upgrades—is one of them. Several online health influencers have already been touting an unsanctioned gene therapy, offered in Honduras, that its creators claim increases muscle mass. Another risk: If changing people’s DNA gets easy enough, gene terrorists or governments could do it without their permission or knowledge. One genetic treatment for a skin disease, approved in the US last year, is formulated as a cream—the first rub-on gene therapy (though not a gene editor). 

Some scientists believe new delivery tools should be kept purposefully complex and cumbersome, so that only experts can use them—a biological version of “security through obscurity.” But that’s not likely to happen. “Building a gene editor to make these changes is no longer, you know, the kind of technology that’s in the realm of 100 people who can do it. This is out there,” says Urnov. “And as delivery improves, I don’t know how we will be able to regulate that.”

man sitting and reading with man behind him

MICHAEL BYERS

In our conversation, Urnov frequently returned to that list of superpowers—genetic variants that make some people outliers in one way or another. There is a mutation that allows people to get by on five hours of sleep a night, with no ill effects. There is a woman in Scotland whose genetic peculiarity means she feels no pain and is perpetually happy, though also forgetful. Then there is Eero Mäntyranta, the cross-country ski champion who won three medals at the 1964 Winter Olympics and who turned out to have an inordinate number of red blood cells thanks to an alteration in a gene called the EPO receptor. It’s basically a blueprint for anyone seeking to join the Enhanced Games, the libertarian plan for a pro-doping international sports competition that critics call “borderline criminal” but which has the backing of billionaire Peter Thiel, among others. 

All these are possibilities for the future of the human genome, and we won’t even necessarily need to change embryos to get there. Some researchers even expect that with some yet-to-be-conceived technology, updating a person’s DNA could become as simple as sending a document via Wi-Fi, with today’s viruses or nanoparticles becoming anachronisms like floppy disks. I asked Church for his prediction about where gene-editing technology is going in the long term. “Eventually you’d get shot up with a whole bunch of things when you’re born, or it could even be introduced during pregnancy,” he said. “You’d have all the advantages without the disadvantages of being stuck with heritable changes.” 

And that will be evolution too.

Tech that measures our brainwaves is 100 years old. How will we be using it 100 years from now?

This article first appeared in The Checkup, MIT Technology Review’s weekly biotech newsletter. To receive it in your inbox every Thursday, and read articles like this first, sign up here.

This week, we’re acknowledging a special birthday. It’s 100 years since EEG (electroencephalography) was first used to measure electrical activity in a person’s brain. The finding was revolutionary. It helped people understand that epilepsy was a neurological disorder as opposed to a personality trait, for one thing (yes, really).

The fundamentals of EEG have not changed much over the last century—scientists and doctors still put electrodes on people’s heads to try to work out what’s going on inside their brains. But we’ve been able to do a lot more with the information that’s collected.

We’ve been able to use EEG to learn more about how we think, remember, and solve problems. EEG has been used to diagnose brain and hearing disorders, explore how conscious a person might be, and even allow people to control devices like computers, wheelchairs, and drones.

But an anniversary is a good time to think about the future. You might have noticed that my colleagues and I are currently celebrating 125 years of MIT Technology Review by pondering the technologies the next 125 years might bring. What will EEG allow us to do 100 years from now?

First, a quick overview of what EEG is and how it works. EEG involves placing electrodes on the top of someone’s head, collecting electrical signals from brainwaves, and feeding these to a computer for analysis. Today’s devices often resemble swimming caps. They’re very cheap compared with other types of brain imaging technologies, such as fMRI scanners, and they’re pretty small and portable.

The first person to use EEG in people was Hans Berger, a German psychiatrist who was fascinated by the idea of telepathy. Berger developed EEG as a tool to measure “psychic energy,” and he carried out his early research—much of it on his teenage son—in secret, says Faisal Mushtaq, a cognitive neuroscientist at the University of Leeds in the UK. Berger was, and remains, a controversial figure owing to his unclear links with Nazi regime, Mushtaq tells me.

But EEG went on to take the neuroscience world by storm. It has become a staple of neuroscience labs, where it can be used on people of all ages, even newborns. Neuroscientists use EEG to explore how babies learn and think, and even what makes them laugh. In my own reporting, I’ve covered the use of EEG to understand the phenomenon of lucid dreaming, to reveal how our memories are filed away during sleep, and to allow people to turn on the TV by thought alone.   

EEG can also serve as a portal into the minds of people who are otherwise unable to communicate. It has been used to find signs of consciousness in people with unresponsive wakefulness syndrome (previously called a “vegetative state”). The technology has also allowed people paralyzed with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) to communicate by thought and tell their family members they are happy.

So where do we go from here? Mushtaq, along with Pedro Valdes-Sosa at the University of Electronic Science and Technology of China in Chengdu and their colleagues, put the question to 500 people who work with EEG, including neuroscientists, clinical neurophysiologists, and brain surgeons. Specifically, with the help of ChatGPT, the team generated a list of predictions, which ranged from the very likely to the somewhat fanciful. Each of the 500 survey responders was asked to estimate when, if at all, each prediction might be likely to pan out.  

Some of the soonest breakthroughs will be in sleep analysis, according to the responders. EEG is already used to diagnose and monitor sleep disorders—but this is set to become routine practice in the next decade. Consumer EEG is also likely to take off in the near future, potentially giving many of us the opportunity to learn more about our own brain activity, and how it corresponds with our wellbeing. “Perhaps it’s integrated into a sort of baseball cap that you wear as you walk around, and it’s connected to your smartphone,” says Mushtaq. EEG caps like these have already been trialed on employees in China and used to monitor fatigue in truck drivers and mining workers, for example.

For the time being, EEG communication is limited to the lab or hospital, where studies focus on the technology’s potential to help people who are paralyzed, or who have disorders of consciousness. But that is likely to change in the coming years, once more clinical trials have been completed. Survey respondents think that EEG could become a primary tool of communication for individuals like these in the next 20 years or so.

At the other end of the scale is what Mushtaq calls the “more fanciful” application—the idea of using EEG to read people’s thoughts, memories, and even dreams.

Mushtaq thinks this is a “relatively crazy” prediction—one that’s a long, long way from coming to pass considering we don’t yet have a clear picture of how and where our memories are formed. But it’s not completely science fiction, and some respondents predict the technology could be with us in around 60 years.

Artificial intelligence will probably help neuroscientists squeeze more information from EEG recordings by identifying hidden patterns in brain activity. And it is already being used to turn a person’s thoughts into written words, albeit with limited accuracy. “We’re on the precipice of this AI revolution,” says Mushtaq.

These kinds of advances will raise questions over our right to mental privacy and how we can protect our thoughts. I talked this over with Nita Farahany, a futurist and legal ethicist at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina, last year. She told me that while brain data itself is not thought, it can be used to make inferences about what a person is thinking or feeling. “The only person who has access to your brain data right now is you, and it is only analyzed in the internal software of your mind,” she said. “But once you put a device on your head … you’re immediately sharing that data with whoever the device manufacturer is, and whoever is offering the platform.”

Valdes-Sosa is optimistic about the future of EEG. Its low cost, portability, and ease of use make the technology a prime candidate for use in poor countries with limited resources, he says; he has been using it in his research since 1969. (You can see what his set up looked like in 1970 in the image below!) EEG should be used to monitor and improve brain health around the world, he says: “It’s difficult … but I think it could happen in the future.” 

photo from the 1970s of two medical professionals facing an eeg machine

PEDRO VALDES-SOSA

Now read the rest of The Checkup

Read more from MIT Technology Review’s archive

You can read the full interview with Nita Farahany, in which she describes some decidedly creepy uses of brain data, here.

Ross Compton’s heart data was used against him when he was accused of burning down his home in Ohio in 2016. Brain data could be used in a similar way. One person has already had to hand over recordings from a brain implant to law enforcement officials after being accused of assaulting a police officer. (It turned out that person was actually having a seizure at the time.) I looked at some of the other ways your brain data could be used against you in a previous edition of The Checkup.

Teeny-tiny versions of EEG caps have been used to measure electrical activity in brain organoids (clumps of neurons that are meant to represent a full brain), as my colleague Rhiannon Williams reported a couple of years ago.

EEG has also been used to create a “brain-to-brain network that allows three people to collaborate on a game of Tetris by thought alone.

Some neuroscientists are using EEG to search for signs of consciousness in people who seem completely unresponsive. One team found such signs in a 21-year-old woman who had experienced a traumatic brain injury. “Every clinical diagnostic test, experimental and established, showed no signs of consciousness,” her neurophysiologist told MIT Technology Review. After a test that involved EEG found signs of consciousness, the neurophysiologist told rehabilitation staff to “search everywhere and find her!” They did, about a month later. With physical and drug therapy, she learned to move her fingers to answer simple questions.

From around the web

Food waste is a problem. This Japanese company is fermenting it to create sustainable animal feed. In case you were wondering, the food processing plant smells like a smoothie, and the feed itself tastes like sour yogurt. (BBC Future)

The pharmaceutical company Gilead Sciences is accused of “patent hopping”—having dragged its feet to bring a safer HIV treatment to market while thousands of people took a harmful one. The company should be held accountable, argues a cofounder of PrEP4All, an advocacy organization promoting a national HIV prevention plan. (STAT)

Anti-suicide nets under San Francisco’s Golden Gate Bridge are already saving lives, perhaps by acting as a deterrent. (The San Francisco Standard)

Genetic screening of newborn babies could help identify treatable diseases early in life. Should every baby be screened as part of a national program? (Nature Medicine)

Is “race science”—which, it’s worth pointing out, is nothing but pseudoscience—on the rise, again? The far right’s references to race and IQ make it seem that way. (The Atlantic)

As part of our upcoming magazine issue celebrating 125 years of MIT Technology Review and looking ahead to the next 125, my colleague Antonio Regalado explores how the gene-editing tool CRISPR might influence the future of human evolution. (MIT Technology Review)

How we could turn plastic waste into food

In 2019, an agency within the U.S. Department of Defense released a call for research projects to help the military deal with the copious amount of plastic waste generated when troops are sent to work in remote locations or disaster zones. The agency wanted a system that could convert food wrappers and water bottles, among other things, into usable products, such as fuel and rations. The system needed to be small enough to fit in a Humvee and capable of running on little energy. It also needed to harness the power of plastic-eating microbes.

“When we started this project four years ago, the ideas were there. And in theory, it made sense,” said Stephen Techtmann, a microbiologist at Michigan Technological University, who leads one of the three research groups receiving funding. Nevertheless, he said, in the beginning, the effort “felt a lot more science-fiction than really something that would work.”

In one reactor, shown here at a recent MTU demonstration, some deconstructed plastics are subject to high heat and the absence of oxygen — a process called pyrolysis.
KADEN STALEY/MICHIGAN TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY

That uncertainty was key. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, supports high-risk, high-reward projects. This means there’s a good chance that any individual effort will end in failure. But when a project does succeed, it has the potential to be a true scientific breakthrough. “Our goal is to go from disbelief, like, ‘You’re kidding me. You want to do what?’ to ‘You know, that might be actually feasible,’” said Leonard Tender, a program manager at DARPA who is overseeing the plastic waste projects.

The problems with plastic production and disposal are well known. According to the United Nations Environment Program, the world creates about 440 million tons of plastic waste per year. Much of it ends up in landfills or in the ocean, where microplastics, plastic pellets, and plastic bags pose a threat to wildlife. Many governments and experts agree that solving the problem will require reducing production, and some countries and U.S. states have additionally introduced policies to encourage recycling.

For years, scientists have also been experimenting with various species of plastic-eating bacteria. But DARPA is taking a slightly different approach in seeking a compact and mobile solution that uses plastic to create something else entirely: food for humans.

In the beginning, the effort “felt a lot more science-fiction than really something that would work.”

The goal, Techtmann hastens to add, is not to feed people plastic. Rather, the hope is that the plastic-devouring microbes in his system will themselves prove fit for human consumption. While Techtmann believes most of the project will be ready in a year or two, it’s this food step that could take longer. His team is currently doing toxicity testing, and then they will submit their results to the Food and Drug Administration for review. Even if all that goes smoothly, an additional challenge awaits. There’s an ick factor, said Techtmann, “that I think would have to be overcome.”

The military isn’t the only entity working to turn microbes into nutrition. From Korea to Finland, a small number of researchers, as well as some companies, are exploring whether microorganisms might one day help feed the world’s growing population.


According to Tender, DARPA’s call for proposals was aimed at solving two problems at once. First, the agency hoped to reduce what he called supply-chain vulnerability: During war, the military needs to transport supplies to troops in remote locations, which creates a safety risk for people in the vehicle. Additionally, the agency wanted to stop using hazardous burn pits as a means of dealing with plastic waste. “Getting those waste products off of those sites responsibly is a huge lift,” Tender said.

A research engineer working on the MTU project takes a raw sample from the pyrolysis reactor, which can be upcycled into fuels and lubricants.
KADEN STALEY/MICHIGAN TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY

The Michigan Tech system begins with a mechanical shredder, which reduces the plastic to small shards that then move into a reactor, where they soak in ammonium hydroxide under high heat. Some plastics, such as PET, which is commonly used to make disposable water bottles, break down at this point. Other plastics used in military food packaging — namely polyethylene and polypropylene — are passed along to another reactor, where they are subject to much higher heat and an absence of oxygen.

Under these conditions, the polyethylene and polypropylene are converted into compounds that can be upcycled into fuels and lubricants. David Shonnard, a chemical engineer at Michigan Tech who oversaw this component of the project, has developed a startup company called Resurgent Innovation to commercialize some of the technology. (Other members of the research team, said Shonnard, are pursuing additional patents related to other parts of the system.)

After the PET has broken down in the ammonium hydroxide, the liquid is moved to another reactor, where it is consumed by a colony of microbes. Techtmann initially thought he would need to go to a highly contaminated environment to find bacteria capable of breaking down the deconstructed plastic. But as it turned out, bacteria from compost piles worked really well. This may be because the deconstructed plastic that enters the reactor has a similar molecular structure to some plant material compounds, he said. So the bacteria that would otherwise eat plants can perhaps instead draw their energy from the plastic.

Materials for the MTU project are shown at a recent demonstration. Before being placed in a reactor, plastic feedstocks (bottom row) are mechanically shredded into small pieces.
KADEN STALEY/MICHIGAN TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY

After the bacteria consume the plastic, the microbes are then dried into a powder that smells a bit like nutritional yeast and has a balance of fats, carbohydrates, and proteins, said Techtmann.

Research into edible microorganisms dates back at least 60 years, but the body of evidence is decidedly small. (One review estimated that since 1961, an average of seven papers have been published per year.) Still, researchers in the field say there are good reasons for countries to consider microbes as a food source. Among other things, they are rich in protein, wrote Sang Yup Lee, a bioengineer and senior vice president for research at Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, in an email to Undark. Lee and others have noted that growing microbes requires less land and water than conventional agriculture. Therefore, they might prove to be a more sustainable source of nutrition, particularly as the human population grows.

The product from the microbe reactor is collected in a glass jar. The microbes can be dried into a powder for human consumption — once they are deemed safe by regulators.
After PET is broken down in the ammonium hydroxide, the liquid is moved to a reactor where it is consumed by a colony of microbes.

Lee reviewed a paper describing the microbial portion of the Michigan Tech project, and said that the group’s plans are feasible. But he pointed out a significant challenge: At the moment, only certain microorganisms are considered safe to eat, namely “those we have been eating thorough fermented food and beverages, such as lactic acid bacteria, bacillus, some yeasts.” But these don’t degrade plastics.


Before using the plastic-eating microbes as food for humans, the research team will submit evidence to regulators indicating that the substance is safe. Joshua Pearce, an electrical engineer at Western University in Ontario, Canada, performed the initial toxicology screening, breaking the microbes down into smaller pieces, which they compared against known toxins.

“We’re pretty sure there’s nothing bad in there,” said Pearce. He added that the microbes have also been fed to C. elegans roundworms without apparent ill-effects, and the team is currently looking at how rats do when they consume the microbes over the longer term. If the rats do well, then the next step would be to submit data to the Food and Drug Administration for review.

Before using the plastic-eating microbes as food for humans, the research team will submit evidence to regulators indicating that the substance is safe.

At least a handful of companies are in various stages of commercializing new varieties of edible microbes. A Finnish startup, Solar Foods, for example, has taken a bacterium found in nature and created a powdery product with a mustard brown hue that has been approved for use in Singapore. In an email to Undark, chief experience officer Laura Sinisalo said that the company has applied for approval in the E.U. and the U.K., as well as in the U.S., where it hopes to enter the market by the end of this year.

Even if the plastic-eating microbes turn out to be safe for human consumption, Techtmann said, the public might still balk at the prospect of eating something nourished on plastic waste. For this reason, he said, this particular group of microbes might prove most useful on remote military bases or during disaster relief, where it could be consumed short-term, to help people survive.

“I think there’s a bit less of a concern about the ick factor,” said Techtmann, “if it’s really just, ‘This is going to keep me alive for another day or two.’”

This article was originally published on Undark. Read the original article.

This researcher wants to replace your brain, little by little

A US agency pursuing moonshot health breakthroughs has hired a researcher advocating an extremely radical plan for defeating death.

His idea? Replace your body parts. All of them. Even your brain. 

Jean Hébert, a new hire with the US Advanced Projects Agency for Health (ARPA-H), is expected to lead a major new initiative around “functional brain tissue replacement,” the idea of adding youthful tissue to people’s brains. 

President Joe Biden created ARPA-H in 2022, as an agency within the Department of Health and Human Services, to pursue what he called  “bold, urgent innovation” with transformative potential. 

The brain renewal concept could have applications such as treating stroke victims, who lose areas of brain function. But Hébert, a biologist at the Albert Einstein school of medicine, has most often proposed total brain replacement, along with replacing other parts of our anatomy, as the only plausible means of avoiding death from old age.

As he described in his 2020 book, Replacing Aging, Hébert thinks that to live indefinitely people must find a way to substitute all their body parts with young ones, much like a high-mileage car is kept going with new struts and spark plugs.

The idea has a halo of plausibility since there are already liver transplants and titanium hips, artificial corneas and substitute heart valves. The trickiest part is your brain. That ages, too, shrinking dramatically in old age. But you don’t want to swap it out for another—because it is you.

And that’s where Hébert’s research comes in. He’s been exploring ways to “progressively” replace a brain by adding bits of youthful tissue made in a lab. The process would have to be done slowly enough, in steps, that your brain could adapt, relocating memories and your self-identity.  

During a visit this spring to his lab at Albert Einstein, Hébert showed MIT Technology Review how he has been carrying out initial experiments with mice, removing small sections of their brains and injecting slurries of embryonic cells. It’s a step toward proving whether such youthful tissue can survive and take over important functions.

To be sure, the strategy is not widely accepted, even among researchers in the aging field. “On the surface it sounds completely insane, but I was surprised how good a case he could make for it,” says Matthew Scholz, CEO of aging research company Oisín Biotechnologies, who met with Hébert this year. 

Scholz is still skeptical though. “A new brain is not going to be a popular item,” he says. “The surgical element of it is going to be very severe, no matter how you slice it.”

Now, though, Hébert’s ideas appear to have gotten a huge endorsement from the US government. Hébert told MIT Technology Review that he had proposed a $110 million project to ARPA-H to prove his ideas in monkeys and other animals, and that the government “didn’t blink” at the figure. 

ARPA-H confirmed this week that it had hired Hébert as a program manager. 

The agency, modeled on DARPA, the Department of Defense organization that developed stealth fighters, gives managers unprecedented leeway in awarding contracts to develop novel technologies. Among its first programs are efforts to develop at-home cancer tests and cure blindness with eye transplants.

President Biden created ARPA-H in 2022 to pursue “bold, urgent innovation” with transformative potential.

It may be several months before details of the new project are announced, and it’s possible that ARPA-H will establish more conventional goals like treating stroke victims and Alzheimer’s patients, whose brains are damaged, rather than the more radical idea of extreme life extension. 

If it can work, forget aging; it would be useful for all kinds of neurodegenerative disease,” says Justin Rebo, a longevity scientist and entrepreneur.

But defeating death is Hébert’s stated aim. “I was a weird kid and when I found out that we all fall apart and die, I was like, ‘Why is everybody okay with this?’ And that has pretty much guided everything I do,” he says. “I just prefer life over this slow degradation into nonexistence that biology has planned for all of us.”

Hébert, now 58, also recalls when he began thinking that the human form might not be set in stone. It was upon seeing the 1973 movie Westworld, in which the gun-slinging villain, played by Yul Brynner, turns out to be an android. “That really stuck with me,” Hébert said.

Lately, Hébert has become something of a star figure among immortalists, a fringe community devoted to never dying. That’s because he’s an established scientist who is willing to propose extreme steps to avoid death. “A lot of people want radical life extension without a radical approach. People want to take a pill, and that’s not going to happen,” says Kai Micah Mills, who runs a company, Cryopets, developing ways to deep-freeze cats and dogs for future reanimation.

The reason pharmaceuticals won’t ever stop aging, Hébert says, is that time affects all of our organs and cells and even degrades substances such as elastin, one of the molecular glues that holds our bodies together. So even if, say, gene therapy could rejuvenate the DNA inside cells, a concept some companies are exploring, Hébert believes we’re still doomed as the scaffolding around them comes undone.

One organization promoting Hébert’s ideas is the Longevity Biotech Fellowship (LBF), a self-described group of “hardcore” life extension enthusiasts, which this year published a technical roadmap for defeating aging altogether. In it, they used data from Hébert’s ARPA-H proposal to argue in favor of extending life with gradual brain replacement for elderly subjects, as well as transplant of their heads onto the bodies of “non-sentient” human clones, raised to lack a functioning brain of their own, a procedure they referred to as “body transplant.”

Such a startling feat would involve several technologies that don’t yet exist, including a means to attach a transplanted head to a spinal cord. Even so, the group rates “replacement” as the most likely way to conquer death, claiming it would take only 10 years and $3.6 billion to demonstrate.

“It doesn’t require you to understand aging,” says Mark Hamalainen, co-founder of the research and education group. “That is why Jean’s work is interesting.”

Hébert’s connections to such far-out concepts (he serves as a mentor in LBF’s training sessions) could make him an edgy choice for ARPA-H, a young agency whose budget is $1.5 billion a year.

For instance, Hebert recently said on a podcast with Hamalainen that human fetuses might be used as a potential source of life-extending parts for elderly people. That would be ethical to do, Hébert said during the program, if the fetus is young enough that there “are no neurons, no sentience, and no person.” And according to a meeting agenda viewed by MIT Technology Review, Hébert was also a featured speaker at an online pitch session held last year on full “body replacement,” which included biohackers and an expert in primate cloning.

Hébert declined to describe the session, which he said was not recorded “out of respect for those who preferred discretion.” But he’s in favor of growing non-sentient human bodies. “I am in conversation with all these groups because, you know, not only is my brain slowly deteriorating, but so is the rest of my body,” says Hébert. “I’m going to need other body parts as well.”

The focus of Hébert’s own scientific work is the neocortex, the outer part of the brain that looks like a pile of extra-thick noodles and which houses most of our senses, reasoning, and memory. The neocortex is “arguably the most important part of who we are as individuals,” says Hébert, as well as “maybe the most complex structure in the world.”

There are two reasons he believes the neocortex could be replaced, albeit only slowly. The first is evidence from rare cases of benign brain tumors, like a man described in the medical literature who developed a growth the size of an orange. Yet because it grew very slowly, the man’s brain was able to adjust, shifting memories elsewhere, and his behavior and speech never seemed to change—even when the tumor was removed. 

That’s proof, Hébert thinks, that replacing the neocortex little by little could be achieved “without losing the information encoded in it” such as a person’s self-identity.

The second source of hope, he says, is experiments showing that fetal-stage cells can survive, and even function, when transplanted into the brains of adults. For instance, medical tests underway are showing that young neurons can integrate into the brains of people who have epilepsy  and stop their seizures.  

“It was these two things together—the plastic nature of brains and the ability to add new tissue—that, to me, were like, ‘Ah, now there has got to be a way,’” says Hébert.

“I just prefer life over this slow degradation into nonexistence that biology has planned for all of us.”

One challenge ahead is how to manufacture the replacement brain bits, or what Hebert has called “facsimiles” of neocortical tissue. During a visit to his lab at Albert Einstein, Hébert described plans to manually assemble chunks of youthful brain tissue using stem cells. These parts, he says, would not be fully developed, but instead be similar to what’s found in a still-developing fetal brain. That way, upon transplant, they’d be able to finish maturing, integrate into your brain, and be “ready to absorb and learn your information.”

To design the youthful bits of neocortex, Hébert has been studying brains of aborted human fetuses 5 to 8 weeks of age. He’s been measuring what cells are present, and in what numbers and locations, to try to guide the manufacture of similar structures in the lab.

“What we’re engineering is a fetal-like neocortical tissue that has all the cell types and structure needed to develop into normal tissue on its own,” says Hébert. 

Part of the work has been carried out by a startup company, BE Therapeutics (it stands for Brain Engineering), located in a suite on Einstein’s campus and which is funded by Apollo Health Ventures, VitaDAO, and with contributions from a New York State development fund. The company had only two employees when MIT Technology Review visited this spring, and the its future is uncertain, says Hébert, now that he’s joining ARPA-H and closing his lab at Einstein.

Because it’s often challenging to manufacture even a single cell type from stem cells, making a facsimile of the neocortex involving a dozen cell types isn’t an easy project. In fact, it’s just one of several scientific problems standing between you and a younger brain, some of which might never have practical solutions. “There is a saying in engineering. You are allowed one miracle, but if you need more than one, find another plan,” says Scholz.

Maybe the crucial unknown is whether young bits of neocortex will ever correctly function inside an elderly person’s brain, for example by establishing connections or storing and sending electro-chemical information. Despite evidence the brain can incorporate individual transplanted cells, that’s never been robustly proven for larger bits of tissue, says Rusty Gage, a biologist at the Salk Institute in La Jolla, Calif., and who is considered a pioneer of neural transplants. He says researchers for years have tried to transplant larger parts of fetal animal brains into adult animals, but with inconclusive results. “If it worked, we’d all be doing more of it,” he says.

The problem, says Gage, isn’t whether the tissue can survive, but whether it can participate in the workings of an existing brain. “I am not dissing his hypothesis. But that’s all it is,” says Gage. “Yes, fetal or embryonic tissue can mature in the adult brain. But whether it replaces the function of the dysfunctional area is an experiment he needs to do, if he wants to convince the world he has actually replaced an aged section with a new section.”

In his new role at ARPA-H, it’s expected that Hébert will have a large budget to fund scientists to try and prove his ideas can work. He agrees it won’t be easy. “We’re, you know, a couple steps away from reversing brain aging,” says Hébert. “A couple of big steps away, I should say.”