B2B Dev Buys D2C Brand, Part 2: Holiday Prep

Lori McDonald is a pioneering B2B ecommerce developer, having founded Brilliance Business Solutions, an agency, in 1998. In February she acquired Norsland Lefse, a direct-to-consumer food manufacturer.

Now revving up Norsland with new tools and strategies, she has agreed to share the journey with us. In July, she discussed her rationale and goals for purchasing the business. In this conversation, she addressed customer feedback, holiday sales preparation, and more.

The entire audio of our conversation is below. The transcript is edited for length and clarity.

Practical Ecommerce: In February, you acquired a D2C food manufacturer. Give us a rundown of the first seven months.

Lori McDonald: Yes, we acquired Norsland Lefse in Rushford, Minnesota. The company manufactures lefse, a traditional Norwegian flatbread similar to a potato-based tortilla, and sells other Scandinavian foods and gifts. It’s been an exciting year, and I’ve learned so much.

We’ve migrated to BigCommerce from Wix, and that process has gone well. We no longer sell certain products on Amazon or our own site because they weren’t making enough money. I’ve learned it’s crucial to have systems in place to track profitability on every item.

Sales in August from our own site were more than double last year. A top goal of the acquisition is to grow direct revenue because we have higher margins there.

Our advertising is increasingly efficient. We advertise on Google and Meta (for Facebook and Instagram). We’re seeing great responses to Meta campaigns especially.

Our email campaigns with Klaviyo are going well too. In addition to sales promotions, we have email campaigns that invite customers to return and review products. It has helped us to collect some great reviews on our products and provide feedback for improvements. For example, some reviewers had experienced our lefse flatbread sticking together. So we started packaging the lefse with wax paper sheets between them.

PEC: Do you manage ad campaigns in-house?

McDonald: We’re working with OX Optimal, a creative agency. They’ve designed and tested ads. The best performers include photos of the lefse itself, like when coming off our manufacturing floor, to see how thin it is and what it looks like.

Early on we brought in a photographer who provided some terrific images that we’ve used for ad creative on and on our website.

PEC: How do you manage inventory and profitability on Amazon?

McDonald: We haven’t integrated Amazon with our BigCommerce backend. We’re tracking our inventory and profitability in Excel and updating the item quantities on BigCommerce and Amazon. It’s a manual process. We’re looking at automated solutions, such as Feedonomics, owned by BigCommerce.

There are different ways to manage multichannel selling. We’re looking at the best options for our situation. But our priority now, in September, is ensuring we’re ready for holiday sales.

PEC: It will be your first busy season!

McDonald: Yes. It’s critical we we make enough lefse for that period. We will start producing it in early September. We can freeze and store it for up to a year.

Sales in November and December have historically been 10 times higher than the rest of the year. So I anticipate being really busy. We’re just trying to ensure that we have the staff in place to make enough lefse and that we’re efficient in our process.

We’re improving our product descriptions so folks can understand why they should buy our lefse. We’re making improvements on our BigCommerce site, such as including categories in site search, moving out-of-stock items to the bottom of the page, and implementing better analytics.

We launched an exit survey using Hotjar that gives us feedback on the user experience and helps us understand why visitors leave our site. That’s provided us with some good information.

It’s so important to listen to customers. A frequent feedback item is that our shipping costs are too high. We’re now looking at better communication — shipping perishable goods is expensive. We’re also reassessing our shipping charges for accuracy. We offer free shipping for purchases of $200 or more. We ship via FedEx 2Day. We recently implemented ShipperHQ to help manage it all. We use a local carrier for nearby orders and XPS Ship to print all labels. It integrates with BigCommerce and Amazon.

We won’t be able to do everything I dream of by this holiday season. Our goal is to implement what we can, learn from it, and improve next year.

PEC: You’re also the founder of Brilliance Business Solutions, a busy B2B ecommerce agency. How has the lefse acquisition impacted that company?

McDonald: It’s largely positive. We’re all learning a lot and incorporating those insights into how we help our development customers. Based on our lefse experience, we could develop specialty themes and features to help those customers, for example. The analytics capabilities we build for Norsland Lefse could help them too.

Norsland Lefse has helped me become more focused while creating opportunities at Brilliance for our fabulous team members. Many have stepped into doing some of the things I used to do.

PEC: How can folks reach out?

McDonald: Brilliance Business Solutions is at BrillianceWeb.com. Norsland is at NorslandLefse.com.

Charts: Ecommerce Revenue Forecasts U.S., Global

The International Trade Administration, an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce, projects global B2B ecommerce sales to reach $36.2 trillion by 2026, a 50% increase from 2023. The ITA’s mission is to promote trade and investment, strengthen the competitiveness of the U.S. industry, and ensure fair trade and compliance with trade laws and agreements.

Gross merchandise value is total sales over a specified period, typically measured quarterly or yearly.

The ITA projects B2C ecommerce revenue to reach $5.5 trillion by 2027, a compound annual growth rate from 2024 of 14.4%. Although fashion and consumer electronics are the largest sectors, pharmaceuticals is the fastest-growing category.


Statista tracks the leading online shopping categories by revenue, both globally and within the United States. Electronics account for a substantial share of global ecommerce sales, with projected spending reaching $922.5 billion. Fashion and apparel follow, ranking second among the top online shopping categories.

Per Statista, the top ecommerce categories in the U.S. reflect global trends, with fashion emerging as the top revenue category, projected to generate $162.9 billion in revenue in 2024.

Save Time by Managing Less, Says DHH

David Heinemeier Hansson is the creator of the Ruby on Rails software framework, the co-founder of Basecamp, an investor in multiple tech startups, a race car driver, and a family man. He’s a modern-day polymath.

Yet his workday calendar is not full of appointments. He abhors managing employees and attending meetings. His is a maker’s schedule, he says, with much uninterrupted time dedicated to solving problems he cares about.

In our recent conversation, his second in 16 years, Heinemeier Hansson addressed the rise of Rails, Basecamp, and, yes, time management.

The entire audio of our discussion is embedded below. The transcript is edited for clarity and length.

Eric Bandholz: Give us your pitch.

David Heinemeier Hansson: I am a co-owner of 37signals. We make software products. Our original tool is Basecamp, a project management tool we’ve been running for over 20 years. Hey.com is the email service we launched a few years ago and an alternative to Gmail. I also write a lot with my business partner, Jason Fried.

We’ve written four books on starting a business, running a business, and thinking about business. We published “Rework” in 2010, which sold a million copies worldwide. We also wrote “Remote: Office Not Required,” “It Doesn’t Have to be Crazy at Work,” and “Getting Real: The smarter, faster, easier way to build a successful web application.”

As part of building Basecamp in 2003, I created Ruby on Rails, the web framework behind Shopify, GitHub, and Airbnb. It was the original Twitter platform and about a million other prominent websites and applications worldwide.

I still work on that. We’re just putting the final touches on Rails 8, a big upgrade for a framework that’s also been around for 20 years and is powering 10% of worldwide ecommerce. That is what Shopify is responsible for. If you add on whatever else in the ecommerce world runs on Rails, it’s probably a higher number. Shopify is the largest Rails application. It’s 5 million lines of code and a huge portion of all ecommerce worldwide.

In my free time, I like racing cars. I’ve been driving race cars for about 15 years, mainly endurance events. The 24 Hours of Le Mans is my pivotal moment.

Bandholz: How do you prioritize your day?

Heinemeier Hansson: From the outset, Jason and I were on the same page about setting good habits early. We had seen so many entrepreneurs try to do the mode switch and fail. They’ll work 80, 100 hours a week in the early days and get accustomed, if not outright addicted, to that style of working.

We designed the business from the get-go so that we would work 40 hours a week, eight hours a day. That’s plenty. Negative things often happen when you push beyond that when you are so focused on work that you miss other things. You don’t have the right perspective on stuff. And you also think it’s all about input, which it’s not. It’s all about output.

After dropping my three kids off at school in the morning, I have a block of time and make it count. I’ve found and seen repeatedly from entrepreneurs who take pride in bragging about how much they work. It usually means sitting in front of a computer for maybe many hours, but what’s the output of those hours?

The way I make them count is through long stretches of uninterrupted time. I try to be on a maker’s schedule most days of most weeks. That’s not a luxury I can do every day or every week, but it is surprisingly easy to structure your business so that you don’t have a day full of meetings.

When I look at my schedule, very often it’s empty. It’s full of one long, beautiful block of uninterrupted time that I can dedicate to solving the problems I care deeply about, and that requires me to think for more than 20 minutes here or 40 minutes there or whatever crumbs are left over. We’ve designed 37signals not to need that level of constant minding and intervention.

We don’t have status update meetings where we sit around in a circle and tell each other what we’ve done. We use Basecamp’s automated questions. It’ll ask every employee on Monday morning, “What will you work on this week?” They will record it for the whole company to know, not just to their manager, not just to me, not just to Jason, but to everyone.

So the entire staff is in the loop on what’s happening in the business. At the end of every day, the system asks, what have you worked on today? That clock frequency allows me to check in on the business, to develop trust that the people we’ve hired are doing the work we intend for them to do and that they’re going in the right direction without me constantly supervising them.

It is incredible how much time you have in a 40-hour week when no one is constantly bothering you. Forty hours is a luxurious amount of time to make progress, but most people don’t see it that way because they squander it. They cut it into little bits, and then they end up Friday afternoon going, “Oh, man, I was so busy this week. What did I get done?”

Because we don’t work like that, we have room for kids, racing, hobbies, vacations, and time off while still progressing on Basecamp and Hey. We’re working on two new products simultaneously. I’m working on Rails 8, and I write a bunch. I can clear the decks and get stuff done.

Bandholz: How much insight are you looking to get from your team on those daily updates?

Heinemeier Hansson: I’m expecting a story. It can focus on whatever you want to emphasize. This is one of the reasons why we collect this information in an open text field. It’s not derived from what to-dos you’ve checked off or the files you uploaded. It’s not automated. It is an opportunity to reflect on what you did today that was important and that you would like to convey to others. Sometimes, the answer is pretty mundane, “I worked on this same project. Here’s a quick anecdote about an issue I encountered and why it was hard, and why it sucked up a lot of my time.”

Often, those anecdotes become conversation starters in the comment thread for that update. Maybe I’ll chime in. “I hadn’t seen that problem or seen it elsewhere, and here’s how I solved it. Maybe you can do that too.” Or someone else from another part of the business goes, “Actually, we had a customer ask about that.” The updates in Basecamp are public to everyone in the company. If you work in an office and occasionally have that hallway or water cooler conversation, it’s usually contained to your team. When you do it on Basecamp, everyone gets to see everything. We’re 60 people, and it works excellent.

Bandholz: You’re not reading all 60, right?

Heinemeier Hansson: No, I scan. I usually scroll through most of these check-ins daily or weekly. Something will catch my eye, and I can scroll back up. I can consume the status updates of 60 people in about five minutes.

We have zero full-time managers. Out of the 60 people we have, everyone, including Jason and me, treats management as a second job to put on only when necessary.

Bandholz: Where can people follow you?

Heinemeier Hansson: Dhh.dk is my website. I’m also on X, @dhh.

Charts: Consumer Trust in Companies, Employers

Consumers are more skeptical than executives realize. That’s according to PwC’s 2024 Trust Survey and report titled “How to earn customer trust in your sector.” PwC surveyed 548 business executives, 2,515 consumers, and 2,039 employees in the United States across various industries.

The data reveals an opportunity for companies to strengthen trust with key stakeholders. Per the report, businesses that assess their trust levels among employees, consumers, investors, and other stakeholders can gain a significant advantage over competitors.

The trust gap is growing because the number of executives who believe they are highly trusted is increasing more quickly than consumer confidence in these industries.

Employees emphasize that data protection is essential for gaining their trust. They rank it as “highly important,” along with fair compensation, respectful treatment, ethical conduct, and executives who actively listen.

In addition, when employees feel a strong sense of trust, over half (52%) report putting in extra effort at work, positively affecting daily operations. Trust also plays a role in attracting talent, as 60% of employees say they have recommended their employer to friends and family.

Moreover, the data shows that consumer markets and industrial product sectors have the biggest trust gap between executives and employees.

Top Resale Sites from Consumer Brands

Approximately 300 million pairs of shoes are thrown away annually in the United States alone. Many could be reused or recycled. Brands are catching on to the importance of becoming sustainable and circular, launching recycling programs to extend the life of their products and keeping them out of landfills.

Here is a list of branded resale shops. Most launched during this recommerce boom of the last few years, though a few have been around longer. There are trade-in programs, peer-to-peer marketplaces, white-glove sustainability programs for luxury items, and more. Many are parts of broader sustainability initiatives from eco-conscious companies.

To follow the recommerce boom, check out ThreadUp’s The Recommerce 100, which ranks resale shops by the number of monthly product listings.

Branded Resale Sites

RE/AE is the popular resale site for American Eagle. The site is powered by ThredUp, a resale-as-a-service platform. American Eagle teamed up with Snapchat on Earth Day 2023 (April 22) for a shoppable AR Lens showcasing select styles from a specially curated inaugural 200-piece RE/AE collection. RE/AE lists nearly 40,000 resale products, enabling American Eagle to recirculate over 1 million items.

Home page of RE/AE by American Eagle

RE/AE by American Eagle

Renew is the resale shop for women’s apparel brand Eileen Fisher. The program began in 2009 as an opportunity for employees to return their unwanted clothes. It then launched nationwide in 2013. Customers can bring Eileen Fisher clothes back to any U.S. Eileen Fisher or Renew store and receive $5 in Renew Rewards for each piece, no matter the condition. Quality items are cleaned and resold; the rest are recycled or turned into art.

ReGear is the trade-in and resale hub of Arc’teryx, an outdoor apparel and equipment company. ReGear inspects, repairs, and rejuvenates used Arc’teryx gear before making it available for sale through the online store. ReGear is just one part of ReBird, the home for Arc’teryx circularity initiatives. The other parts are ReCare, with care and repair tools to make gear last, and ReCut, a program for creating new products from recycled materials.

Worn Wear is a set of tools from Patagonia that extends the use of its products through responsible care, repair, resale, and recycling at the end of a garment’s life. For trade-ins, Worn Wear provides customers with a credit of up to $100 per item (whether or not the item sells) to be used at Patagonia retail stores, WornWear.com, and Patagonia.com. Among the first resale programs from brands, Worn Wear started in 2013 at Patagonia pop-up events and became a permanent program in 2017.

Home page of Worn Wear by Patagonia

Worn Wear by Patagonia

Like New is Lululemon’s trade-in program, which runs through resale technology provider Trove. The program allows customers to trade in used Lululemon clothing in exchange for an e-gift card to be used at the retail stores, online, or Likenew.lululemon.com. All profits on Like New go to the Apparel Impact Institute’s Fashion Climate Fund, with the goal of having an end-of-use solution for 100% of products by 2030. The program started in 2021 and expanded nationwide on Earth Day 2022.

Outerworn is a peer-to-peer resale marketplace for Outerknown, a sustainable clothing brand co-founded by surfing champion Kelly Slater. The brand’s mission, “For People & Planet,” is to make quality sustainable products that last a lifetime, keeping garments out of landfills. Launched in 2021, Outerworn enables the buying and selling of used pieces. Outerknown also pursues sustainability through socially responsible sourcing, organic materials, and upcycling textile waste.

Conscious Closet from Bergdorf Goodman is a service that extends the useful life of its customers’ luxury goods. The program has five focuses — edit, repair, alter, resell, and donate — and leverages a network of strategic partners and the retailer’s in-house services to assist clients at each stage. For the resell portion, Bergdorf Goodman has partnered with Fashionphile, a platform for pre-owned luxury accessories. The partnership offers customers circular services by enabling personal shoppers to facilitate the selling of clients’ luxury items in exchange for Bergdorf Goodman gift cards.

Home page of Conscious Closet by Bergdorf Goodman

Conscious Closet by Bergdorf Goodman

Carhartt Reworked is a trade-in program for the workwear and outdoor apparel maker. Powered by Trove, the resale site is dedicated to extending the life of workwear and keeping previously worn, slightly imperfect gear out of landfills. Carhartt Reworked accepts trade-ins by mail and in participating Carhartt retail stores. In the first 12 months of the resale site’s launch, Carhartt says it extended the life of over 43,000 garments and kept more than 68,000 products out of landfills.

Re/Supply is a used gear program that outdoor equipment co-op REI started in 2017, though it hosted “garage sales” for many years. Re/Supply offers members a more sustainable and affordable way to purchase gear and apparel. The program consists of items customers have returned or traded in. Members can trade in gently used gear for gift cards to help extend a product’s life for fellow members. REI estimates that buying a used item avoids 50% or more CO2 emissions from new product manufacturing.

Canada Goose Generations is the recommerce platform for Canada Goose, the maker of performance luxury outdoor apparel. The site is powered by Trove. Building on the brand’s mission of making quality outerwear, Generations keeps long-lasting Canada Goose products in circulation, giving them additional life by inviting customers to trade in. Generations supports the brand’s Sustainable Impact Strategy, helping to achieve its goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2025, reducing scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions by 80% from its 2019 baseline.

Athleta Preloved is a partnership between fitness brand Athleta and resale platform provider ThredUp. Athleta Preloved offers gently used Athleta products at a discount. The site lists more than 30,000 resale products. Trade-in participants can earn Athleta credit for eligible items that sell in the listing window. Unsold items are reused or responsibly recycled. According to its website, approximately 525,000 Athleta clothing items have been recirculated and reused.

Home page of Athleta Preloved

Athleta Preloved

Toms (re)Wear Good is a program from shoe company Toms, in partnership with ThredUp, that sells gently used shoes and accessories and allows customers to turn used clothes into a Toms shopping credit. Customers wishing to resell items on the resale platform can request a free “clean out” label via Toms website. The service determines which items are eligible for consignment. For the items sold, sellers get an e-gift card to use at Toms.com. Items not eligible for consignment will be reused or responsibly recycled.

Tea Rewear is a popular resale marketplace from San Francisco-based children’s clothing company Tea Collection. The Tea Rewear site is powered by Kidizen, a resale marketplace for kids’ fashion and essentials. Participants can list and sell items or work with Style Scouts, local representatives for parents who have merchandise but don’t want to list and sell it themselves.

Ikea Preowned is a new second-hand online marketplace where customers can sell Ikea products to each other rather than third-party marketplaces. The seller posts listings on Ikea Preowned, and Ikea’s algorithms generate the details of the item, including size and the original retail price. Ikea Preowned is up and running in Madrid and Oslo. The company plans a global roll-out by December.

Hanna-Me-Downs is a peer-to-peer marketplace to buy and sell pre-owned Hanna Andersson products. The marketplace is powered by Archive, a resale service platform, and is a part of Hanna Andersson’s sustainability drives that include (i) sourcing organic cotton, (ii) moving all cotton to regenerative farming by 2025, (iii) producing collections with at least 50% recycled content, and (iv) creating durable products with heavier-weight cotton and colors that last.

Home page of Hanna-Me-Downs by Hanna Andersson

Hanna-Me-Downs by Hanna Andersson

Client Crash Bankrupts Entrepreneur

Resilience comes to mind when describing Hunter Durham. In eight years, he went from a college graduate to a Facebook employee to a company owner to bankruptcy.

Fortunately for us, he’s willing to share his experience. It’s a helpful case study on borrowing money, riding an ecommerce boom, and relying on a single client.

The entire audio of my conversation with Durham is embedded below. The transcript is edited for length and clarity.

Eric Bandholz: Tell us about your journey.

Hunter Durham: I filed for personal bankruptcy late last year. Since then I’ve helped a friend here in Puerto Rico launch a cocoa business. We raised a couple hundred thousand dollars in financing but ultimately decided the timing wasn’t right. So I’m now looking for my next role.

I’ve had multiple ecommerce and marketing positions. I was a college intern at Red Bull and then Dell in Austin. My first full-time job was at Microsoft during my senior year. I graduated in 2017 and landed at Facebook that year. I was on the advertising team managing ecommerce accounts.

It was a lot of fun. My clients included Johnsonville (sausages), Pacific Life (insurance), and roughly 50 other ecommerce brands. That was back when everything was pretty open on Facebook. I could see top-line revenue, how much they were spending on advertising, and their margins. I did that for about three years before joining one of my largest clients in 2019, a drop shipper out of Canada that has since gone out of business.

I stayed there for about seven months, then Covid hit, and ecommerce blew up. My experience came into heavy demand. I consulted with Sampars, the grocery wholesaler. That position became my agency, Impact Industry Marketing, which grew rapidly during the next few years.

During that time I bought three businesses in the furniture space. Two were shippers — we provided delivery services for furniture retailers. Then, last August, our largest customer ceased operations. They owed us in the high six figures in revenue. It forced me to file for bankruptcy late last year.

So I’m back to square one.

Bandholz: You lost your biggest customer.

Durham: The company was Mitchell Gold + Bob Williams — a giant high-end furniture manufacturer doing $180 million the year before they went out of business. They had been around for 25 years, with about 60 retail locations and an online presence.

When I bought the two shipping companies, Mitchell Gold represented 15% of our revenue, but by the time they shut down, it was 60%, or about $3 million a year. We serviced about 33% of their total shipping volume. When they shut down, our business died.

I had outstanding operating expenses, plus an SBA loan we had taken out to acquire the shipping companies. I couldn’t repay that loan, which I had personally guaranteed. That prompted the bankruptcy filing.

Bandholz: Could you elaborate on the bankruptcy process?

Durham: I had to learn a lot quickly. I had no clue. When we stopped getting paid, I started calling bankruptcy lawyers. It was a crash course.

Mitchell Gold started delaying payments in June 2023, and the company ceased operations in August. I spent the whole summer in crisis mode as it became apparent they would not pay us.

It was a matter of putting one foot in front of the other, letting employees go, and then engaging attorneys to start my bankruptcy.

Bankruptcy is an orderly process that unwinds many bad things. Chapter 11 bankruptcy is restructuring. It ironically costs a lot of money. For example, my bankruptcy attorney required a $250,000 retainer. Bankruptcy attorneys are the first to get paid.

Then you get a restructuring advisor paid for by the debtor (my company) but mandated by the bank. Chapter 7 is liquidation. It’s much cheaper than Chapter 11.

I had a couple of months of savings when I realized I had to file. Bankruptcy is a snapshot in time. It matters when you file and what you file. A bankruptcy lawyer figures that out.

Bandholz: All of that is now behind you. What’s next?

Durham: I’m still exploring. I may return to running an agency, perhaps focusing on clients’ creative and business strategies. Combining artificial intelligence with branded content seems promising.

Bandholz: We look forward to your next moves. Where can people follow you or reach out?

Durham: I’m on X, @Huntercdurham.

This startup is making coffee without coffee beans

DJ Tan, cofounder of the Singaporean startup Prefer Coffee, pops open a bottle of oat latte and pours some into my cup. The chilled drink feels wonderfully refreshing in Singapore’s heat—and it tastes just like coffee. And that’s impressive, because there isn’t a single ounce of coffee in it. 

It turns out that our beloved cup of joe may not be sustainable the way it’s produced now. Rising temperatures, droughts, floods, typhoons, and new diseases are endangering coffee crops. A 2022 study published in the journal PLOS One expects a general decline in land suitable for growing coffee by 2050. Modern coffee production involves clearing forests and uses a lot of water (as well as fertilizers and pesticides). It also consumes a lot of energy, generates greenhouse-gas emissions, and ruins native ecosystems. The situation “presents an existential crisis for the global coffee industry,” says Tan—and for all those who love their morning wake-up shot. 

Tan had an idea that could fix it: a “coffee” brewed entirely from leftovers of the local food industry. 

For a few years before starting Prefer, Tan was working in the food industry with Singapore’s top chefs. His clients were in search of new flavors, which he created using fermentation—feeding various organic substances to microbes. Humans have been using microorganisms to create foods for ages: microbes and yeast produce some of our favorite foods and drinks, like yogurt, kimchi, beer, and kombucha. But Tan was pushing the process in new directions. “Fermentation is a way to create flavors that don’t exist,” he says. 

In 2022, at a local startup accelerator in Singapore, Tan met Jake Berber, a neuroscientist turned entrepreneur. Both men were coffee lovers, and they joined forces to create a beanless drink. In doing so, they joined a growing movement of upcyclers who believe that we can reduce our footprint by putting food leftovers back onto our plates after making them appealing and palatable once again. 

They spent months experimenting with various ingredients. “From my previous work, I had an inkling of what might work,” says Tan, but narrowing it down to the exact proportions, processes, and types of leftovers took a while. They tried roasting chicory root, which had been used as a coffee substitute before, but while the result was reminiscent of coffee, the taste wasn’t close enough. They tried grinding date seeds, which yielded a fruity tea-like drink, a far cry from coffee. Then some batches brewed from mixtures of food leftovers showed promise. They used gas chromatography mass spectrometry, a technique that identifies individual molecular compounds in mixtures, to identify and analyze the molecules responsible for the desired taste. The results guided them in tweaking new iterations of the brew. After a few months and several hundred different mixes and methods, they zeroed in on the right combination: stale bread from bakeries, soybean pulp from tofu making, and spent barley grains from local breweries. “We combine them in roughly equal amounts, ferment for 24 hours, and then roast,” Tan says. Out comes a naturally caffeine-­free “coffee” that can be enjoyed with plant-based or regular milk. Or added to a martini—local bartenders jumped on the novelty. Without milk, the drink “tastes a little more chocolatey and retains the notes of herbaceous bitterness,” according to Tan. Price-wise it’s comparable to your average coffee, Berber says. Prefer sells a powder to be brewed like any other coffee, as well as bottled cold brew and bottled latte. The products can be bought online and ordered at various Singaporean cafés.  

For those who want their kick, the startup adds caffeine powder from tea leaves. On a warming planet, tea plants are a better bet, Tan explains: “You’re harvesting the leaves, which are a lot more plentiful than the coffee berries.” 

Prefer ferments and then roasts its upcycled mixture (right). They also have started selling bottled products online (left).
PREFER

Currently, Prefer Coffee sells its brew in Singapore only, but it hopes to expand to other places while still upcycling local waste. In the Philippines, for example, leftover cassava, sugarcane, or pineapple might be used, Tan says. Although adjustments will have to be made, the company’s fermentation process should be able to deliver something similarly coffee-like: “Our technology doesn’t rely on soy, bread, and barley but tries to use whatever is available.” ν

Journalist Lina Zeldovich is the author of The Living Medicine: How a Lifesaving Cure Was Nearly Lost and Why It Will Rescue Us When Antibiotics Fail, to be published by St. Martin’s in October 2024.

5 Predictions for the 2024 Holiday Shopping Season

Get ready for a short and competitive 2024 Christmas shopping season as mobile devices, the election, email, and social commerce take center stage.

What follows are five holiday-shopping predictions, input from AI, and a report card of my forecasts last year.

54% on Mobile

In 2023, slightly more than half of U.S. online purchases from November 1 and December 25 came from mobile devices, accounting for approximately $113.5 billion, according to Adobe. This year, mobile will represent 54% of holiday ecommerce sales.

Three factors drive the growth: age, marketplaces, and buy-now pay-later options.

First, there is the age factor. Gen Z shoppers (ages 18 to 25) are more likely to purchase from a mobile device, and some 15% of Gen Z consumers buy directly from social media sites, according to Emarketer. Social commerce is mobile-friendly, doubling the impact.

Second, Amazon and other massive marketplaces accounted for more than half of holiday sales last year. These marketplaces offer native mobile apps that make shopping from a smartphone effortless.

Third, BNPL is increasingly popular for Christmas purchases. It’s often associated with relatively large retailers and marketplaces, which may offer a better mobile shopping experience.

5% Increase in Ecommerce

Early predictions from Emarketer, ecommerce platform makers, and others had the 2024 Christmas shopping season growing to $271 billion, a 23% increase from the $222.1 billion in 2023.

That is too optimistic, given the contentious U.S. election, inflation, and other economic woes. I’m predicting a 5% increase this year.

Email Volume Grows 25%

In 2024, we will continue to see growth in email marketing.

For example, last year Sinch Mailgun, which provides email infrastructure services, reported a 16% year-over-year increase in email volume for the Black Friday to Cyber Monday weekend. For all of November 2023, the volume rose 22% over the prior year.

The Christmas shopping season is relatively short in 2024 — just 29 days — which could make digital advertising more competitive and expensive. Marketers will turn to email to boost sales.

40% of Gen Zs Use Social

A recent survey of Gen Z shoppers found that about four in 10 will use some form of social commerce during the 2024 Christmas shopping season.

TikTok Shop, launched in September 2023, generated $11.9 billion in gross merchandise volume in 2023. TikTok does not typically share performance results, but it is reasonable to assume growth. Add the increase on other platforms, and social commerce in 2024 could be significant.

BNPL 9% of Retail Sales

For the second consecutive year, I predict that BNPL will represent 9% of total U.S. online holiday sales.

I overestimated last year’s BNPL growth, which was 7.4%. However, a recent Experian survey found that about 25% of American consumers plan to use BNPL this year. Thus I’ll stick with 9% growth for 2024.

Moreover, the ratio of in-store to ecommerce sales is leveling out. In 2023, ecommerce represented 34% of U.S. holiday sales, up one percentage point from the prior year. Brick-and-click retailers will find more ways to get shopping into physical locations. One of those ways is to promote BNPL offers in-store.

AI Predictions

After completing my list of five 2024 holiday predictions, I asked three generative artificial intelligence tools to do the same, using this prompt:

“Based on historical data and recent projections, make five bold predictions about the 2024 holiday shopping season for an audience of retail and ecommerce professionals.”

ChatGPT 4.o (by Open AI)

Home page of ChatGPT 4

ChatGPT 4 by OpenAI

  • Expect social commerce to account for nearly 20% of all online holiday transactions.
  • Sustainability will become a critical factor for consumers during the 2024 holiday season. Expect a 25% increase in sales for retailers offering carbon-neutral shipping, recyclable packaging, and sustainably sourced products.
  • Omnichannel fulfillment will dominate, with same-day delivery as the norm.
  • Mobile shopping will outpace desktop and in-store experiences, with more than 70% of holiday ecommerce transactions occurring on smartphones.

Grok-2 Beta (by X)

Home page of Grok-2 beta

Grok-2 Beta by X

  • Mobile commerce will dominate. Over 60% of all ecommerce transactions during the holiday season will occur on mobile devices, driven by enhanced mobile payment solutions and an increase in mobile-first consumer behavior.
  • Social commerce will rise. Retailers who integrate seamless in-app purchasing experiences could see up to a 30% increase in sales directly through social media.
  • Despite the holiday season being structurally shorter, the intensity of shopping activities will spike earlier and more sharply. Retailers will start their holiday promotions as early as late October, with a significant emphasis on pre-Black Friday deals.
  • AI personalization and predictive shopping will blossom. Retailers will use AI to not only suggest products but to predict what consumers might want before they explicitly search for it, potentially increasing conversion rates by offering personalized “surprise and delight” deals. This could lead to AI influencing over 25% of online holiday purchases.
  • With increasing awareness about environmental issues, sustainability will become a significant factor in purchasing decisions.

Gemini (by Google)

Home page of Gemini

Gemini by Google

  • We’ll see mobile devices account for over 60% of all online holiday shopping traffic and close to 50% of total online sales.
  • AI-powered personalization will go mainstream, with retailers using customer data and predictive analytics to create highly targeted product recommendations, offers, and experiences.
  • Social media platforms will become major players in the holiday shopping landscape.
  • Sustainability drives purchase decisions. Consumer awareness of environmental and social issues will reach new heights, with shoppers increasingly choosing brands and products that align with their values.
  • Supply chain disruptions will continue. Despite efforts to mitigate disruptions, ongoing challenges like port congestion, labor shortages, and material scarcity will persist, impacting product availability and pricing.

Last Year’s Predictions

Since 2013 I have predicted ecommerce trends and sales for the coming holiday season. Here’s how my 2023 forecast went.

Holiday spending grows less than 5% — correct. The National Retail Federation put total holiday sales growth at 3.8% in 2023. Emarketer set the 2023 holiday season growth rate at 3.9% while others had it as high as 4.9%, which was below the 5% prediction. By comparison, in 2022 year-over-year U.S. holiday spending grew 8.1%.

Buy-now pay-later accounts for 9% of retail sales — wrong. While the number of BNPL transactions grew 14% last year, they totaled just $16.6 billion, according to Adobe Analytics — 7.4% of sales.

Discounting drives sales — correct. This prediction was easy, with some estimates concluding that 60% of Christmas orders in 2023 had at least one sale item. Emarketer put it this way, “Deep discounts drove consumer spending across the Cyber Five in 2023.”

Shoppers wait for those discounts — correct. While U.S. Veteran’s Day (November 11) sales remained relatively flat from 2022 to 2023, Black Friday retail sales enjoyed a 7.5% year-over-year increase, and ecommerce leaped about 19%. Shoppers waited for the Black Friday and Cyber Monday discounts.

Generative AI impacts product discovery — unknown. This prediction is difficult to measure. I could not find data on how generative search results had impacted holiday purchase behavior.

Charts: Productivity through Automation

Increasing productivity is critical for businesses to stay competitive. Automation can streamline processes, lower human error, and free up staff for strategic projects.

Already, generative AI is a differentiator. Bain & Company’s June 2024 “Automation Scorecard” reported the findings from the firm’s survey of 893 global executives on using gen AI to save costs and drive productivity.

The report segregated responses into two categories: “leaders” plan to invest nearly four times more in generative AI than “laggards.”

Artificial intelligence and machine learning can spot patterns and trends humans might overlook, enabling quicker and more informed decision-making. According to PwC’s January 2024 “Global CEO Survey,” CEOs expect generative AI to substantially improve productivity, revenue, and bottom-line profits.

The Bain & Company report addressed company-wide automation in areas such as human resources, finance, marketing, and sales — citing potential time savings in marketing initiatives, sales follow-ups, and payroll processing. Accordingly, over 60% of “Leaders” and “Laggards” plan to “significantly” or “somewhat” increase automation investments in the next 12 months.

Automation helps companies of all sizes, not just global enterprise brands. A May 2024 survey from Brightpearl by Sage, an ecommerce software provider, addressed potential gains in automation when it queried roughly 1,000 employees of U.S. retailers — online and brick-and-mortar with annual revenue of $1 million to $100 million. On average, respondents spent approximately six hours per week on manual, repetitive tasks, impacting their overall productivity.

Beardbrand Perseveres Amid Challenges

I host “Ecommerce Conversations” while running Beardbrand, my direct-to-consumer provider of men’s grooming supplies. Periodically I’ll divert an episode to share the details of my business in the hope it helps others. I’ve done that three times in the last year, a challenging period for many ecommerce companies, including mine.

I’ve addressed our initial sales decline, plans for recovery, and, most recently, a year-end recap.

In this episode, I’ll discuss our recent changes at Beardbrand to persevere for better times.

The full audio of my dialog is embedded below. The transcript is edited for clarity and length.

Logistics

Since my last update, we’ve focused on lowering costs. One significant initiative was moving to a new 3PL to get closer to our new manufacturer. The goal was to shorten the time from the completion of manufacturing to shipping products to customers. We’ve been consolidating our manufacturing to one provider, which should help tighten the supply chain.

Our new manufacturer is in the U.S. Midwest. Our 3PL was in Dallas, Texas. We could have shifted fulfillment to the new manufacturer, which offers that service. Instead we opted for another 3PL, one that’s closer to the manufacturing facility.

The direct fulfillment cost would have been roughly the same for the manufacturer or the new 3PL. We chose the latter mainly because the initial setup would be quicker.

The transition from our previous to the new 3PL went pretty well. There were some hiccups, but I’ve got a good team member who managed the process well. We’ll wait to determine how much savings, if any, the new 3PL achieves.

ADA Lawsuit

Beardbrand has been dealing with an ADA lawsuit for allegedly having an inaccessible ecommerce site. Many industry colleagues recommended that we settle and move on. I couldn’t do that on principle. The plaintiff was suing 50 companies simultaneously and never reached out to us to respond to its complaints. The plaintiff falsely claimed we had no alt tags on images, for example. It was a money grab, and I didn’t want to reward that behavior.

Settling the lawsuit might save money, but it has downsides. If all entrepreneurs and operators fought bogus lawsuits and lawyers rather than settling, the problem would lessen. By settling, we encourage them to continue. If you have the means to fight the lawsuit, do it. We’re going to fight it.

Sales

Sales continue to be soft. We’re in our slow season — around September, it typically starts to improve. Meta has historically been our main customer acquisition channel, but our efforts there lately have been mostly unsuccessful.

Last week, we brought on X as a marketing platform. We’ll see how it performs.

We’re launching new products to counter the slowdown. We have a new, natural, aluminum-free deodorant in the works. Hopefully, it’ll be available by the end of the year. We’ll also be releasing new products on Amazon. I have a lot of ideas for new products, but we’re focusing on one of our core areas of expertise: small-batch fragrance development.

The raw materials costs for some of our products have gone through the roof. It’s forcing us to decide whether to raise prices to customers or reformulate the products. We’ve always developed products based purely on quality. I’m questioning that approach for the first time in 12 years, asking myself if an ingredient is worth the premium investment. My answer is no. We have to evolve. We’ll test, get prototypes to our customers, and see if they meet their expectations. If not, we will explore the higher price point.

YouTube

Traffic to Bearbrand’s videos on YouTube has declined. Since about 2019, we’ve seen a dramatic drop in organic views. We’ve devised new approaches. We now have two channels, and we’re tweaking how we film. Nothing seems to work. Our videos no longer seem to resonate with our audience or the algorithm. We’ve had several good hits on YouTube Shorts, Instagram, and TikTok, but they don’t build the same affinity with our audience as long-form versions.

We now plan to host regular livestreams to get back to the basics of connecting authentically with our audience. That sort of direct communication with customers is critical. I’m excited to get it going.

Moving Forward

Despite our challenges over the past two years, I am encouraged and optimistic about our changes. A business needs to be sustainable. It has to make money. Dealing with shrinking sales is no fun, but entrepreneurs do not get to choose their problems. We prioritize, align resources, and move forward. That’s how we succeed over the long term.