Startup Vet Revives Legacy Fitness Brand

Jon Shanahan destroys the myth that founders make lousy employees. He co-founded Stryx, a men’s cosmetics provider, and is now a marketing executive at TRX, the storied exercise equipment company. He has thrived in both roles.

He joined TRX in late 2022 amid a post-Covid hangover and a stale legacy brand. Fast forward to late 2025, and TRX is refreshed and flourishing, thanks in part to Jon’s entrepreneurial mindset.

While at Stryx, Jon appeared on the podcast twice, in 2020 and 2022. In this latest conversation, he shares transitioning to a large corporation, the challenges of reviving a brand, and more.

Our entire audio is embedded below. The transcript is condensed and edited for clarity.

Eric Bandholz: What are you doing now?

Jon Shanahan: I transitioned to TRX Training as vice president of marketing at the end of 2022. TRX is the global training brand recognized for its distinctive black-and-yellow suspension straps, a bodyweight training system found in nearly every gym.

You helped us at Stryx when we launched into Target in 2022. Stryx and Beardbrand entered during a major aisle reset, which eliminated many existing brands. Four or five other companies launched alongside us, but by 2023, Target had removed all of us — even though our sales exceeded Target’s benchmarks.

TRX filed for bankruptcy in early 2022, following the collapse of the fitness boom. During the pandemic, anything fitness-related was popular, and TRX was everywhere — Nordstrom, REI, Hy-Vee. However, demand eventually dropped, and the company overextended itself.

In August, founder Randy Hetrick reacquired TRX. His goal was to modernize a 20-year-old global brand for a new generation. Initially, I wasn’t keen on moving to Florida from my home in Pennsylvania, but I eventually did, and I joined the team.

My initial focus was brand strategy. I conducted a global study — TRX operates in 80-plus countries — to clarify its identity and market role. That led to a complete refresh, including a new logo. Randy supported it, and it’s been well received.

Soon, I took over all marketing and later expanded into ecommerce and in-store retail, along with TRX’s commercial and education businesses. Unlike Stryx, where I was the face of the brand, here I’m behind the scenes, scaling a legacy brand. TRX had diehard fans, so the challenge is guiding that loyalty into growth and innovation.

Bandholz: You created a new TRX logo. Did it receive a backlash?

Shanahan: Surprisingly, no. In Europe, we have 25 long-time distributors who’ve supported TRX since Randy first sold straps himself. I was intentional in the redesign — it had to feel like TRX but with a modern edge. The heritage mattered, but it needed a fresh approach.

The decision came while we were building a new headquarters in Delray Beach. Seeing the old logo in the renderings, I realized that if we hadn’t changed it then, we never would. It marked a new era for TRX.

The update wasn’t drastic. We retained the iconic “TRX” name and black-and-yellow colors, while refining the design. Rolling it out took time because of our extensive SKUs. We phased it in digitally first, then packaging and straps, keeping costs down.

We also ensured stakeholders were on board. Distributors, retailers, and internal teams were the first to preview it. Notably, the redesign was by the original TRX designer — the same one who worked with Randy in his garage. Bringing him back gave the refresh authenticity.

The reception was smooth. For us, the new logo signaled TRX’s return and future direction.

Bandholz: You oversee retail, direct-to-consumer, and Amazon. How do you prioritize and align those channels?

Shanahan: Each channel requires a different approach. Amazon is a daily knife fight. You need competitive, lower-priced SKUs to stand out. Our ecommerce site, by contrast, is the brand’s showcase. That’s where we feature premium products and position TRX as the leader.

We manage channel conflict with multiple SKUs. For example, we sell 18 versions of the suspension trainer: two premium models on our stie, three “good-better-best” options on Amazon, and value-driven versions in physical retail.

Retail messaging is sport-specific, such as golf, pickleball, and tennis, since shoppers want programs tied to their favorite activities. On Amazon, people mostly search for “home gym” or “home strength,” so we optimize our keywords accordingly.

Our site emphasizes heritage — “the iconic strap” — and certain high-ticket products, such as our 20- and 40-pound weight vests. They wouldn’t sell on Amazon.

Beyond consumer channels, we’re expanding into commercial and educational sectors. That means learning what gyms, trainers, and pros need and then translating those insights back to consumers. After two years, I feel we’ve hit a stride — 2026 will be about strengthening those cross-channels.

Bandholz: You’ve transitioned from an entrepreneurial role at Stryx to a corporate environment.

Shanahan: Founders bring a unique skill set, but the transition isn’t always easy. For those early in their careers, I often recommend starting with an established company. You’ll get paid to make mistakes and learn valuable lessons. I spent years at Apple and a software firm before starting YouTube projects and co-founding Stryx. I can apply those lessons in a corporate role.

Joining an existing team, I leveraged my finance literacy while also focusing on listening. The first six months ideally are dedicated to understanding how things work before making any changes.

Clear communication is critical. I talk daily with leadership to share issues and align on direction, then relay that to the team. It feels like being a founder again — selling the vision, gathering feedback, and building buy-in.

Bandholz: Let’s talk about licensing. How can a brand establish those high-margin collaborations?

Shanahan: Licensing comes in two forms. In-licensing is what we did with The Ohio State University. We created a TRX strap branded with that school’s name, paid royalties, and benefited from the recognition. Out-licensing is the reverse: putting TRX on products we don’t manufacture. For that to work, our brand must carry strong market credibility.

TRX is authentic in functional training, so extending into other training products makes sense. It allows consumers to choose TRX-branded items over generic private-label alternatives at stores such as Dick’s Sporting Goods. That’s a direction we’re exploring for 2026.

We’ve had inbound interest from various companies. For example, Dick’s fitness section features Everlast resistance bands and New Balance jump ropes — products manufactured by third-party companies, which pay a 5–10% royalty. Walmart is similar, with about 60% of its fitness gear being licensed brands and 40% private label.

Bandholz: Where can people follow you, buy some TRX bands?

Shanahan: We’re at Trxtraining.com. Hit me up on LinkedIn.

CFO Shifts to Menswear, Egyptian Roots

In 2020, Karim Abed was the chief financial officer for a Texas-based home builder. The job paid well, he says, but he yearned to launch his own business and reconnect with his Egyptian heritage.

Fast forward to 2025, and that business is WYR, a men’s apparel brand utilizing Giza cotton, the storied fabric, and small Egypt-based factories. The company is thriving.

In our recent conversation, Karim addressed WYR’s initial struggles, subsequent growth, and, yes, the benefits of Egyptian cotton and craftspeople.

Our entire audio is embedded below. The transcript is condensed and edited for quality.

Eric Bandholz: Tell us who you are and what you do.

Karim Abed: I’m the founder of WYR, a men’s premium clothing brand launched in 2020. My girlfriend, now my wife, suggested WYR, shorthand for “what you’d rather” wear. I loved the simplicity and stuck with it.

Before WYR, I spent nearly a decade in Texas working in finance, eventually as the chief financial officer for a real estate division of a home builder. It was financially rewarding, but I wanted to create something of my own.

I eventually decided on clothing because of family connections in Egypt. I hoped to reconnect with my culture and heritage while producing quality items — shirts, pants, boxers — using Egyptian cotton, a renowned product.

In January 2020, just before the pandemic, I traveled to Egypt with fabric samples and refined patterns that I had worked on for six months, and I launched in July of that year.

I learned from mistakes. I kept my finance job to fund the business, so I could afford to lose a few bucks. We lost a good amount of money in the first and second years. Covid unexpectedly helped by letting me work from home and focus on WYR after hours.

Bandholz: When did you commit fully to the apparel company?

Abed: We sold only 1,000 units in the first six months and generated only $20,000 in revenue during the first year. Once I refined our selling proposition — premium Giza cotton, precise fit, great reviews — sales exploded. Revenue jumped to nearly $1 million in year two. That growth gave me the confidence to go full-time.

Many apparel brands order from large factories, often in Eastern Europe. I chose a different path. I source in Egypt and work with small artisan-run workshops instead of big manufacturers. A craftsman with 35 years’ experience leads our main facility. He still sews and manages a 15-person team.

Partnering with these artisans ensures meticulous quality and allows for custom details such as curved hems, unique stitching, and tailored armholes that large factories wouldn’t accommodate. We provide them enough business to focus solely on WYR.

To maintain standards, we added our own quality control team to these small factories. This hands-on approach lets us preserve the craftsmanship and fit that define our brand while scaling production responsibly.

All told, we utilize six factories, depending on demand. Each specializes in a skill. For example, one focuses on chinos because it has the right machinery for twill cotton, while another handles our curved hems, which require precise stitching. We match each product to the facility best suited for that craft.

This network took months to build. Through my wife’s family connections, I met an experienced production manager who joined our team. He helped us test numerous small workshops, dropping those that didn’t meet standards and adding new ones as needed.

Today, we have eight staff members in Egypt, including managers for quality control, inventory, and production. We also maintain a small warehouse. We operate lean, producing on an as-needed basis. Owning our yarn allows us to stay flexible and keep a tight inventory while ensuring consistent quality.

Bandholz: What’s the difference between Egyptian and Giza cotton?

Abed: Giza is a specific, long-staple strain of Egyptian cotton, graded by location and fiber type. It’s rare and government-regulated. Most “Egyptian cotton” products aren’t truly Giza. We secure production by reserving about 10 tons of yarn from a trusted textile mill and verifying it ourselves.

Consumers may think a t-shirt is machine-made start to finish, but for us, skilled labor is critical. Drawing and layering patterns, precise cutting, and careful sewing all affect the final quality. Every step — from picking the cotton to spinning, dyeing, and sewing — happens in Egypt.

Our cotton is expensive. It’s the highest input cost for our shirts. Cheaper alternatives are available in countries such as China, Bangladesh, and India. China, in particular, excels at synthetic athletic fabrics. But for authentic Giza cotton quality, Egypt is unmatched.

Bandholz: You’ve succeeded with apparel, a competitive industry.

Abed: The challenge was convincing consumers — who can’t feel our shirts online — of their value. We relied heavily on ads with quick, attention-grabbing messages about our fit, Giza cotton fabric, and simple, logo-free style. That built enough trust and reviews to drive repeat purchases, which remain our biggest growth engine.

Going viral isn’t realistic for minimalist basics. Our appeal is understated comfort and timeless quality, not flashy logos. Instead, we focus on steady customer acquisition and retention.

Early on, I hired several marketing agencies, but none cared as much as I did. With my finance and analytical background, I realized I could manage most of it myself. Now I handle ad strategy with one team member, outsourcing only content creation. For promotions such as Black Friday, we plan campaigns, drop the creative into our ads, and closely monitor performance.

Bandholz: How do you find content creators?

Abed: We produce podcast episodes in-house. Agencies create humorous ads, and our customers generate reviews and testimonials. I find creators on Instagram who match our minimalist vibe, then invite them to make authentic posts.

Surprisingly, simple flat-lay photos — just a well-styled shirt and pants — perform exceptionally well, although they’re difficult to shoot, so we outsource some of that work. The key is constant iteration and diverse creative sources to keep ads fresh.

I prefer creators who genuinely like our shirts, rather than those chasing paychecks. Some accept products in exchange for content. I avoid expensive “pay-to-play” deals because audiences can sense inauthenticity.

We briefly tried a large public relations agency for exposure, but it felt out of brand. I’d rather grow grassroots than pay athletes or influencers five-figure sums for sponsorships. Authenticity matters more than big-name endorsements.

Bandholz: What’s your next growth stage?

Abed: We intend to scale carefully. Having a single factory focused solely on us would be excellent. I’ve even toyed with opening my own facility, but that’s an entirely different business.

In a perfect world, I’d own every part of the supply chain, from production to selling. That gives customers the highest value and ensures the best quality. But I also value my life outside of work and want time with my family.

I’m not a fan of the “grow first, profit later” mindset. Some founders run losses for years before turning cash flow positive. I believe a business should prove itself within two or three years. Scaling takes steps. You can’t jump overnight from selling 200,000 shirts annually to 2 million. The supply chain must expand methodically to maintain quality.

Bandholz: Where can people buy your shirts or reach out?

Abed: Our site is Wyrwear.com. We’re also on Instagram. I’m on LinkedIn.

36 Ways to Revive an Ecommerce Business

Listeners and readers of “Ecommerce Conversations” know I occasionally depart from interviews to share my experiences owning and operating Beardbrand, the direct-to-consumer brand I launched a decade ago. To date, I’ve addressed hiring, branding, profit-building, priority-setting, exiting, overcoming setbacks, and top business models.

This too is a solo episode, addressing entrepreneurial doldrums, when a business is seemingly stuck in no growth or worse. Certainly that’s the story of Beardbrand over the past couple of years.

So here are 36 ideas to jolt a company forward. Think of this as a checklist for tackling new projects, cutting costs, or simply resetting your focus.

My entire audio dialog is embedded below. The transcript is condensed and edited for clarity.

Operations

Build framework. Implement a clear operating framework, such as EOS — Entrepreneurial Operating System — to guide meetings, goal-setting, and accountability. It keeps everyone aligned and focused.

Define culture. Clarify why your company exists, who you serve, and how. If you haven’t done these things, you can feel lost, really quickly. Boundaries create focus, and focus strengthens customer relationships.

Define mission and core values. Create a memorable mission and concise core values for your team to live by. At Beardbrand, our values are freedom, hunger, and trust — balanced and reinforced through interviews, reviews, and everyday recognition.

Outsource when necessary. Regularly assess what to keep in-house and what to outsource. A smaller, focused team provides flexibility and freedom, while trusted external partners handle the rest.

Improve manufacturing. Continuously evaluate suppliers and get multiple quotes. Choose partners that meet quality, timing, and minimum order quantities, and stay ready for changes in pricing or management.

Implement better shipping. Re-quote carriers such as FedEx, UPS, USPS, and DHL to maintain competitive rates. Review box sizes, packaging, and 3PL processes to optimize costs, minimize errors, and enhance the customer experience.

Mitigating Risk

ADA compliance. Keep your site accessible and up to date with the requirements of the Americans with Disabilities Act to protect customers with disabilities and avoid lawsuits. Maintain a clear process for regular audits to defend your business when necessary.

Terms and privacy. Have a lawyer review your terms and privacy policy instead of relying on boilerplate text. Ensure compliance with privacy laws, including the E.U.’s General Data Protection Regulation and state-specific regulations in jurisdictions such as California and Virginia. Use pop-ups to obtain consent and avoid tracking visitors who decline.

Insurance. Verify that your coverage aligns with revenue and risk. Shop multiple providers each year to confirm you’re getting the best rate and protection.

Pay off debt. Run lean. Keep debt as low as possible so you can scale down if times get tough and borrow only when necessary.

Trademarks. Register your brand name and unique product names. Regularly search for copycats and address violations promptly, ideally with a polite initial approach before escalating to legal action.

Copyrighted photography. Use only images and text you own or license. AI art isn’t always immune to claims, and some creators are aggressive about enforcing their rights. Remind your team that use carries real legal risk.

Product claims. Avoid guaranteed-result language. You can say a product “helps” or “improves appearance,” but words like “cures” or “heals” trigger regulatory oversight.

Two-factor authentication. Enable 2FA for every employee and account to guard against phishing and unauthorized logins.

Secure email. Set up DMARC, SPF, and DKIM to prevent spoofing or impersonation of your domain.

Unused apps. Remove apps you no longer use. Old, unsupported apps can become back doors for hackers or leak your data.

Unused subscriptions. Audit credit cards and recurring charges. Cancel forgotten subscriptions and consider issuing new cards yearly to keep hidden costs and risks low.

Marketing

New customer strategy. Explore new channels. Are you on Amazon, Walmart, Etsy, and eBay? Know where your prospects are shopping, especially if you’re product-focused versus brand-focused.

In-person channels. Consider B2B and niche retailers, from independent pharmacies to mass-market stores. Smaller markets or events, such as marathons or trade shows, can offer stable, untapped opportunities.

Expand your reach. Google and Meta are common, but don’t forget TikTok, Snapchat, Pinterest, X, and YouTube. Other platforms and plugins can amplify reach.

Direct mail. Use direct mail for customers who have unsubscribed from emails. It’s another owned channel to reach potential buyers.

SMS. Similar to email, SMS is a direct and effective means of communication.

Advertising on other platforms. Market on email newsletters, websites, or programmatic TV if your budget allows. Even magazines can offer last-minute ad opportunities.

SEO/GEO. Search engine optimization may feel outdated, but it still matters to drive generative engine optimization. Ensure your site adheres to solid SEO fundamentals, establish a strong public relations presence, and remain active on Reddit, which feeds AI crawlers. Keep your brand visible as user search behavior shifts.

Influencer marketing. Work with micro or mega influencers. Utilize TikTok Shops or user-generated content to expand reach and create authentic content.

Organic social. Build your brand with organic social content. Use it to increase awareness, create authenticity, and enhance your ads.

Global markets. Expand internationally only after significant sales. Start with English-speaking countries, then Europe or China. Consider regulatory and operational costs.

AOV. Increase average order value with bundling, price testing, and shipping thresholds. Promotions and quiet price adjustments can drive higher orders.

Post-purchase upsells. Offer complementary products immediately after purchase to increase revenue per customer.

Category expansion. Launch related products that pair with existing items to encourage multiple purchases.

A/B testing. Optimize and test website layout, marketing copy, promotions, pricing, and more to increase conversion rates.

Repeat orders. Encourage repeat purchases, especially for consumables. For slower-turnover items, target niche buyers, such as developers or bulk purchasers.

Loyalty programs. Be cautious with formal programs — they can backfire. Consider offering informal rewards for milestones, such as gifts after multiple orders.

Post-purchase flow. Ensure emails and communications reach customers, and use small surprises to delight them and create loyalty.

Surprise and delight. Over-deliver on promises. Include small gifts, such as planners or notes, to enhance the customer experience, especially for higher-end products.

Subscriptions. Optimize subscription offerings to keep customers engaged and revenue flowing.

The Best Ecommerce Business Model

In this year’s “Ecommerce Conversations,” I’ve occasionally shared my experiences owning and operating Beardbrand, the direct-to-consumer brand I launched a decade ago. To date, I’ve addressed hiring, branding, profit-building, priority-setting, exiting, and overcoming a million-dollar loss.

In this installment, I share what I believe is the best bootstrapped ecommerce model and why others should consider it.

My entire audio dialog is embedded below. The transcript is condensed and edited for clarity.

Building a D2C brand is hard. Developing and selling products is a grind. A better path is a bootstrapped, sustainable business where you spend less than you make and enjoy the journey.

The purpose is not chasing giant exits or reinventing the world. It’s about building a lifestyle business — likely under a few million in annual revenue — that trades rapid top-line growth for lower stress, profitability, and freedom. It may never go mass market, but it can deliver a great life.

Agile Structure

When building an ecommerce business, aim to keep fixed, internal costs to a minimum. Take inspiration from Will Nitze of IQ Bar, who runs a lean team and outsources marketing, design, video, packaging, operations, and manufacturing. Outsourcing creates flexibility. Vendors that underperform are easily replaced.

In-house manufacturing ties you to equipment, facilities, and local employees. All reduce mobility. With an outsourced model, you can work from anywhere — even Denmark, where I am now — and still receive prototypes and manage operations. A remote setup opens the talent pool worldwide.

There are trade-offs. In-person collaboration can be valuable, but physical offices create obligations. I learned this the hard way with a five-year lease in Austin, Texas, that became unnecessary during Covid, costing us over $100,000 annually.

Local teams and on-site operations may suit folks who prefer a traditional setup. But if freedom matters — to travel, hire globally, pivot quickly — consider outsourcing from the start. I prefer flexibility, partnering with both in-house staff and external providers to keep my business agile.

Smart Niches

An ideal ecommerce product is small, lightweight, and consumable, serving a large audience with an average order value of $75–$125. This price range makes customer acquisition easier and ad testing faster. The challenge: It’s highly competitive, especially in the supplements, beauty, and premium beverage sectors, such as specialty coffee or tea.

Other strong options are non-consumables that share those traits, such as a Ridge pocket knife — easy to ship, high perceived value. Consider untapped luxury niches. Affluent customers value convenience, presentation, and uniqueness far more than price.

For inspiration, visit luxury department stores such as Neiman Marcus and Saks Fifth Avenue. Observe what sells and why someone might pay 10 times more than a viable alternative. Avoid trend-driven categories, such as fashion, which require constant reinvention. Instead, focus on evergreen household goods with a unique twist for a small but willing-to-pay market.

While these niches won’t create billion-dollar companies, they can deliver low-stress, highly profitable businesses — think $750,000 in annual revenue with $250,000 in profit — without the complexity of endless SKUs, large teams, or operational headaches.

Margin Power

It’s possible to build a $750,000 ecommerce business that nets $250,000, but only if you manage gross margins — aim for 90%. For example, sell an item costing $6 for $60. You’ll still retain around 80% after shipping, taxes, and delivery costs. High margins are non-negotiable for a low-stress operation.

Conversely, products with tighter margins attract price-sensitive customers, which leads to increased returns, complaints, and support tickets. Serving customers with disposable income reduces friction because they’re less likely to demand refunds.

At a $115 average sale, $750,000 in annual revenue equates to roughly 6,520 orders — just 18 per day. One person can fulfill this volume, or with minimal help, generating perhaps only a few support tickets per week.

If margins leave $650,000 after cost of goods, and you spend $400,000 on marketing, you’ll retain $250,000 profit. The model works, but launching it — higher-priced products in a niche — requires time and testing. It won’t be easy to stand out, but with the right offer, it’s a manageable, profitable, and less stressful way to run a business.

Trusted Voice

Every high-end ecommerce brand needs a trusted public advocate — someone who can vouch for the quality, experience, and value of the product. It doesn’t have to be a celebrity. It can be the owner, provided she’s willing to be the face of the brand.

The advocate’s role is to build trust, communicate the product’s value, and demonstrate how it improves customers’ lives. Titles alone aren’t enough. An advocate must have influence and sales ability. Without this trust, it’s nearly impossible to command premium prices.

You may need to sell to an audience you’re not part of. That requires shedding your own “value shopper” mindset to learn how target customers buy. Experience their lifestyle, understand why they pay more, and embrace their perspective. This shift in thinking can be the key to unlocking growth.

Creative Edge

Innovation is essential. If you can’t create something unique, this model may not work. Competitors will copy your ideas and undercut your prices. Success requires loyalty and brand affinity, and thus customers who won’t switch to save $30 — or $100.

Luxury beauty brands such as La Mer skincare succeed not only from functional superiority, but also because of their storytelling, perceived exclusivity, and trust. The challenge for like-minded entrepreneurs is to create an experience and narrative so compelling that customers believe no substitute can match it.

In premium markets, even a few thousand loyal customers can sustain a profitable, low-stress business — if your innovation keeps them hooked.

Charts: U.S. Small Business Trends Q3 2025

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index is published quarterly in conjunction with MetLife, the financial services firm, and based on unique online interviews with 760 small business owners and operators. The index captures owners’ views on the “economy, hiring, investment, and other key economic indicators.”

The index is a measure of owners’ sentiment across key topics with 0 = extremely negative, 100 = extremely positive, and 50 = neutral.

For Q2 2025, the index rose to 65.2, up from 62.3 in the previous quarter, reflecting growing optimism around business health and cash flow.

The National Small Business Association, a 65,000-member non-profit advocacy organization unaffiliated with the U.S. government, conducts an annual in-depth survey of small businesses nationwide on the state of their companies.

This year’s survey report (PDF), issued in May, is based on approximately 650 interviews in April 2025 with small business owners in all 50 states and industries. Economic uncertainty is the most significant challenge facing small businesses today, with 59% identifying it as their primary concern.

Despite the uncertainty, roughly 50% of surveyed owners expect their sales to increase this year.

U.S. Bank surveyed 1,000 small business owners with annual revenues of $25 million or less and between two and 99 employees to examine the main macroeconomic challenges they face and their use of digital tools and AI. The survey was carried out from March 14 to April 4, 2025, and published in the bank’s “2025 Small Business Perspective” report (PDF).

Per the survey, U.S. small business owners are adopting new payment options to serve their customers better. Although cash is still the preferred in-store method, other payment options are becoming increasingly popular, with 42% reporting tap-to-pay as a primary method.

Charts: U.S. Manufacturing Trends Q3 2025

U.S. manufacturing activity showed modest improvement in June 2025, according to data released by the Institute for Supply Management (PDF).

The Institute’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) derives from monthly survey responses collected from purchasing and supply executives at more than 400 industrial firms. The overall PMI is a weighted composite of five seasonally adjusted indicators: new orders (30%), production (25%), employment (20%), supplier deliveries (15%), and inventories (10%).

The June PMI rose to 49.0, up from 48.5 in May, surpassing forecasts.

Since 1968 the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank in Philadelphia has conducted a monthly survey targeting approximately 250 manufacturers in its district of Delaware, southern New Jersey, and eastern and central Pennsylvania. Respondents report on the business conditions and various aspects of activity at their facilities, such as employment, work hours, new and backlogged orders, shipments, inventory levels, and delivery times.

The July 2025 survey, conducted from the 7th to the 14th, solicited executives’ expectations for changes in operational and labor costs for the current year. Most anticipate rising costs in all expense categories throughout 2025.

The National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) is the largest such organization in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every sector and in all 50 states.

Trade uncertainties and rising costs are the leading concerns for manufacturers, according to NAM’s Q1 2025 “Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey” (PDF) of approximately 250 firms, released in March.

Moreover, manufacturers are increasingly focusing on digital transformation. NAM introduced a question in March to measure the importance manufacturers are giving to digitally transforming their operations. Over one-third of respondents (36.8%) plan to moderately prioritize digital transformation in the coming year.

5 Predictions for 2025 Holiday Shopping

Could it be that Americans are heading into the holiday shopping season with confidence?

From faster delivery and cross-border buying to small business growth and AI-powered shopping tools, the coming Christmas season promises to be both bold and efficient — or at least that’s what I predict.

Near Instant Gratification

Fast, free delivery has become so common that consumers will pick up or receive at least 35% of orders placed in November and December within 24 hours.

I foresee a couple of factors driving speedy deliveries.

First, Amazon’s infrastructure prioritizes rapid delivery. In urban areas, Amazon delivers approximately 60% of Prime orders the next day. Rural delivery lowers the average, but Fulfillment by Amazon shipments will provide nearly instant shopping gratification.

Second, buy online, pick up in-store purchasing has grown rapidly and could soon represent 10% of U.S. ecommerce sales, according to Capital One Shopping.

Canadian-American Relations

Canadian shoppers are among the most active cross-border consumers worldwide. In a given year, about half of folks north of the border shop with a U.S. ecommerce business.

Photo of a male looking at a laptop with snow in the background

Holiday shopping has become a digital ritual — convenient and quiet.

Despite tariff disputes, I believe these shopping habits are both resilient and beneficial. Canadian buyers are accustomed to shopping at U.S. stores online owing to value and variety. And, the nations have been friends for too long to experience lasting trade disruptions.

With this in mind, expect at least 55% of Canadian shoppers to make at least one holiday purchase from U.S. ecommerce stores in 2025.

Small Business Growth

I expect small, independent online retailers will grow by approximately 10% in 2025, outperforming overall ecommerce performance and reaching roughly $15.5 billion in U.S. holiday revenue.

In comparison, Shopify merchants alone generated about $11.5 billion during the 2024 holiday peak sale period. Etsy sellers added about $2 billion.

The growth should come from small brands that sell craft or U.S.-made products.

AI Shopping

During the peak gift-giving season, at least 50% of North American shoppers will use artificial intelligence for shopping. Consumers will chat, search, seek recommendations, and even make purchases with the help of AI tools.

Last year, fewer than 15% of U.S. shoppers consulted AI for holiday gift giving, reportedly, but much has changed in a year. AI is present in nearly every tool, including Google.

Hence AI product discovery will likely be the top ecommerce traffic source in 2025.

Consumer Confidence

I was pessimistic last year about U.S. holiday ecommerce growth, and it showed in my failed predictions, listed below. If I am going to err this year, it will be on the side of being too optimistic.

The U.S. stock market has performed well of late. For example, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite index recently hit record highs. The driver for this boom may be trade optimism and solid corporate earnings.

I suspect this enthusiasm will carry over into holiday gift-giving in 2025. The key factor will be whether shoppers believe they can afford to spend.

Last Year’s Predictions

Since 2013 I have predicted ecommerce trends and sales for the coming holiday season. In 2024, I was incorrect in four of my five predictions, making last year’s forecasting my worst yet. Here are the embarrassing specifics.

Mobile commerce will represent 54% of holiday ecommerce sales: correct. Adobe reported that U.S. holiday sales on mobile devices reached $131.5 billion, accounting for 54.4% of the overall online total.

Ecommerce holiday sales grow 5% year-over-year: wrong. I was too pessimistic last year. I wrote that early holiday predictions, including one suggesting 23% growth in 2024, were “too optimistic, given the contentious U.S. election, inflation, and other economic woes.” Most sources put the actual growth at 8.7%.

Email volume grows 25% during the 2024 holiday season: wrong. This one was more difficult to measure, but nonetheless, I likely missed the mark. Global email volume grew about 4.3% year-over-year during the fourth quarter, according to multiple sources.

40% of Gen  Zs use social commerce this holiday season: wrong. Most estimates place the actual number at 32% for Gen Zs (ages 13 to 28), while an estimated 12% of all U.S. consumers shopped social in 2024.

BNPL accounts for 9% of online holiday sales: wrong. About 7.7% of U.S. holiday purchases in November and December 2024 were buy-now, pay-later, representing $18.2 billion, per Adobe.

Facebook ‘Megaphone’ Powers D2C Watch Brand

Nate Lagos is vice president of marketing for Original Grain, a direct-to-consumer watch maker. He relies on Facebook advertising, but not for immediate customer acquisition.

“Platforms such as Facebook are megaphones, not salespeople,” he says.

In our recent conversation, Nate shared his marketing origins, advertising tactics, influencer management, and more.

Our entire audio conversation is embedded below. The transcript is edited for length and clarity.

Eric Bandholz: Give us a quick rundown of who you are and what you do.

Nate Lagos: I’m the vice president of marketing at Original Grain, a watch company that blends wood and steel to create timepieces that guys want to wear. I’ve been here four years, leading growth through product innovation and creative marketing campaigns. Before that, I served as CMO for a couple of smaller ecommerce brands.

The last four years at OG have been exciting, fast-paced, and at times stressful — but extremely rewarding.

My marketing journey started in college. I fell in love with the subject after my first class, but quickly realized school wouldn’t teach me how to thrive in the real world. I had one great professor, but most classes fell short. I began freelancing during my sophomore year, running organic and paid social campaigns for local businesses, and built from there.

I host a twice-weekly podcast called “Tactical & Practical.” Each episode is 10-12 minutes and delves into a single tactic we’re using or a challenge I’m facing. The goal is to create the kind of honest, tactical content I wish I had at my first CMO job at age 24, when I had no idea what I was doing.

Bandholz: How do you approach media buying and ad strategy?

Lagos: I see advertising as a way to amplify great brands, not as a tool to acquire customers directly. Platforms such as Facebook are megaphones, not salespeople. I pour budget into that megaphone because impressions have long-term value, even if they don’t immediately convert.

Nearly all of our ad budget goes to Facebook, primarily for conversion campaigns. Our average order value for new customers is $360. Their buying decisions often take months. So, we don’t obsess over daily customer acquisition costs — we focus on consistent awareness and brand affinity that pays off during key moments, such as the holidays.

Our performance metric is straightforward: If we spend $10,000 promoting a watch and earn $40,000 from it, the ads are effective, regardless of Facebook’s internal metrics. If we only make $11,000, we cut spend, test new creative, or shift messaging.

We typically advertise our top five watches, not our entire catalog. We structure our campaigns by collection, and we measure success both at the individual product level and the collection-level return-on-ad-spend. Meta accounts for 95% of our spend. The rest goes to Google, YouTube, and influencers, which we’d like to grow, though they’re harder to scale and produce content for.

Bandholz: What’s your strategy for changing ad creative on Meta?

Lagos: I’m still figuring that out. Historically, we didn’t launch a large number of ads — typically around 10–15 per week — even as we grew by over 100% last year from an eight-figure base. This year, we’ve ramped that up to 30–40 ads weekly. It’s not because we need more volume to find winners, but because Facebook won’t allocate spend unless we launch more.

The platform tends to push our top-performing ads, which is fine until those ads plateau. Previously, we could introduce new creative into the same ad set, and Facebook would distribute spend. That’s no longer happening. By increasing volume, we’re now seeing new ads spend faster and find winners more quickly.

Our full-time photographer is also our creative inspiration, handling graphic design and brand direction. We hired an operations lead earlier this year. He focuses on Klaviyo and Postscript scheduling and helps out with social and influencer campaigns. So there are three of us on the team.

Most of our messaging angles come from copy I test directly on our site. Once we see what converts there, we repurpose that language into ads.

Bandholz: Thirty pieces of content weekly takes work.

Lagos: Approximately one-third of our content consists of iterations of past winners — duplicate headlines, graphics, and photography styles. If a creative is performing, we replicate it across our top five watches and underperformers we want to push.

For new content, Chris (our creative lead) and I brainstorm weekly using a shared Canva board. I lean toward old-school inspiration — vintage Rolex and cigarette ads — while he pulls modern ecommerce and consumer-focused examples. We compare notes on what we like and dislike, and adapt our messaging and offers to those styles.

We’re intentional with testing. If we’re trying a new visual format, we’ll pair it with a proven offer, headline, and watch. If it flops, we know it’s the visual that didn’t land, not the copy or the product. It helps us stay efficient and avoid confusion when something doesn’t work.

Bandholz: What makes your top product so successful?

Lagos: We launched our top-selling watch two years ago. It’s an automatic skeleton-dial watch, so you see all the inner mechanics. It’s black-plated stainless steel with charred whiskey barrel wood, and that combo crushes. Since then, we’ve launched other watches using similar elements, and many have worked. Our founders do an incredible job designing them.

I’ve learned it’s not the marketing that determines success. We launched this watch with the same email, ad, and strategy as others. So when one sells out and the other doesn’t, no one blames marketing — it’s all about product-market fit.

Keeping this watch in stock has been the real challenge. We launched 400 units in November 2023, and they sold out quickly. We thought it was holiday timing, but it continued to sell — 500 more, then thousands for Father’s Day, and then a massive run in Q4 2024. Eventually, I raised prices and pulled back ads to slow sales.

Bandholz: You mentioned influencers. What’s your strategy?

Lagos: We’re lucky because we’re our own target audience — 35 to 50-year-old guys who drink whiskey and love outdoorsy, rugged stuff. So we’re already fans of the people we end up working with. We also survey our customers about their music and sports preferences to guide our influencer selection.

Our outreach is mostly manual. We send cold direct messages, and I occasionally reach out to agents on LinkedIn. Having big-name partners such as Jack Daniel’s and Taylor Guitars gives us instant credibility. Influencers take us seriously when they see who we work with.

We don’t do affiliate or revenue share. It doesn’t align with our long purchase cycles. Instead, we pay a flat fee for a set number of posts or YouTube inclusions. Instagram collaborations let us repurpose posts as ads. They aren’t high converters but deliver great impression and click costs.

We use codes and links to track YouTube performance and calculate revenue per thousand impressions. Some audiences, such as whiskey content creators, bring $80 RPMs, while lifestyle comedians bring $20. As long as we pay below those amounts, the channel works. We’ve also had success with truck, outdoors, and even music creators, although music has been hit or miss.

Bandholz: Where can people buy your watches and reach out?

Lagos: OriginalGrain.com. I’m on X and LinkedIn. My podcast is Tactical & Practical.

Charts: Outlook of U.S. Institutional Investors 2025

In March and April 2025, Boston Consulting Group surveyed approximately 150 U.S. institutional investors on their outlook for the domestic economy.

In the ensuing report (PDF), BCG reported most investors expect President Trump’s tariff policy to have negative impacts, including higher consumer prices, weaker corporate earnings, declines in stock market performance, and slower growth in gross domestic product. Conversely, many foresee benefits such as increased government revenue and lower interest rates.

According to the survey, investors now expect negative impacts from tariffs to all economic sectors. Manufacturing sectors depend heavily on global supply chains, so higher input costs and retaliatory tariffs could weaken the competitiveness of U.S.-made products and pressure overall performance.

Sixty-seven percent of surveyed investors are holding more cash, suggesting they anticipate increased market volatility or a downturn.

Moreover, investors identify revenue growth and protection as the top priorities for management, while emphasizing the rising importance of financial stability and supply chain resilience.

How to Survive a Million-Dollar Loss

This year I’ve sprinkled occasional “Ecommerce Conversations” episodes with real-life master classes from Beardbrand, my company. To date I’ve addressed hiringbrandingprofit-building, priority-setting, and exiting.

For this installment, I’ll share Beardbrand’s experience of losing nearly $1 million across 2023 and 2024. I’ll recap how we managed to survive our worst years in business while remaining 100% bootstrapped.

It got bad. Our cash levels dropped to where they were in year one, 2014. We were hemorrhaging money.

But we’re still here — still building and still learning. We made it through without outside funding.

Here’s what the future holds for Beardbrand. My entire audio dialog is embedded below. The transcript is condensed and edited for clarity.

Ghosted

A big portion of our loss came from Target. The company had been a seven-figure account for us for years, and we thought the relationship was solid. Every year, we pitched Target our plans. Historically, the staff there provided us with clear feedback — what worked, what didn’t, and where there was room for growth.

In 2023, Target had a sustainability initiative. We revamped our packaging, switching from glass and plastic to aluminum. It’s lighter, more recyclable, and aligns with eco-conscious goals. At the same time, we increased the size of our beard oil packaging from 1 oz. bottles to occupy more shelf space and stand out.

We committed early, produced inventory, and delivered Target’s purchase orders on time. Then silence. Nothing. After years of working with us, the staff ghosted us. No feedback, no responses. Worse, they dropped us and left us with nearly $200,000 of unpaid product.

We erred by giving Target exclusivity, which meant we weren’t selling on Amazon or Walmart. That killed our ability to move leftover inventory quickly when they dropped us. By the time we finally got on Amazon, the products had already aged out. We destroyed a large quantity that had expired.

Reserves

We’ve always run Beardbrand conservatively. That means keeping a decent amount of capital in reserve — not because we’re paranoid, but because you never know when a black swan event might hit. Having that runway lets you make clear, intentional decisions rather than panicking. It gives you time to explore solutions, test channels, and get a better night’s sleep.

Thankfully, during our stronger years, we built up a solid cushion. And that cushion is what kept us afloat during the downturn. We essentially burned through all of it. But we never dipped below zero, which meant we didn’t have to take out high-interest loans, open lines of credit, or bring in outside investors.

We did have conversations just in case. I even considered withdrawing money from my personal savings. But that’s a hard decision when things aren’t going well. When you’re in the middle of the storm, it doesn’t feel like a temporary dip — it feels like a freefall. You start wondering: Is this the bottom, or is there more pain ahead?

Writing another personal check to the business, especially after years of building wealth from it, was not something I wanted to do. And neither did my partners. We were determined to find a way forward that didn’t involve doubling down with personal capital or giving up control.

Pileup

In addition to losing Target, we experienced a series of setbacks. First, the state of Texas audited us. We cooperated fully, waited for the final numbers, and instead got slapped with a tax lien. That lien triggered Brex, our corporate credit card provider, to freeze our account, despite our perfect payment history. Thankfully, American Express stood by us and kept things moving.

Then came an ADA lawsuit, a leaked 100% off coupon code, and a $20,000 air conditioner repair at our barbershop. We also faced regulatory changes that forced us to reformulate key fragrances.

We had internal missteps, such as losing a key growth team member and coasting when we should’ve pushed harder. We focused on profitability, but the business slowly declined.

We simplified our product line to meet a manufacturer’s needs, which, in hindsight, proved to be a mistake. The lesson? Partner with vendors who value your business. You don’t want to be too small to matter, or too big to be managed. That relationship needs to be just right.

We also lowered prices to drive volume, but it backfired. Loyal customers just paid less, and those who thought we were expensive still did. Meanwhile, larger packaging reduced purchase frequency, and killing off beloved fragrances hurt loyalty. Top-line revenue got cut in half.

Furthermore, when your business shrinks, fixed costs such as office leases and payroll can become overwhelming. Our $10,000 per month lease that once felt small became a big deal.

Rebuilding

The good news? Beardbrand is alive. We’ve weathered the storm and slowly started turning things around. It hasn’t been a dramatic rebound — it’s been steady, slow progress. We have focused on improving operations, addressing inventory issues, resolving stock-outs, tightening pricing, and enhancing product quality.

We now have the right fulfillment provider, manufacturing partners, and systems in place. Instead of existential crises, we’re dealing with everyday stuff — shipping issues, ad performance, and the occasional bad product batch. That’s a massive shift. It’s not glamorous, but it’s no longer a matter of survival.

We cut costs aggressively — even eliminating $15 per month software. We reestablished healthy margins. Our customer service, returns, and product quality all depend on having room to breathe financially.

The Target fallout is behind us, the tax lien is resolved, and the ADA plaintiff dropped the bogus lawsuit. My business partner stepped out of day-to-day operations, and some team members transitioned to part-time roles, which helped improve our cash flow. We’ve managed all of this without layoffs. My team is the same one that helped us grow, and they’re still incredibly talented and dedicated.

I’ve also cut my own salary and lived off personal savings to keep things afloat. But I’m optimistic. With the business stabilizing, we can rebuild our savings and start exploring new growth opportunities again.

Momentum

Survival mode means focusing on making it through the day. Some entrepreneurs try to grow their way out of problems. For us, it started with stabilizing operations. We can finally think long-term again.

We’ve begun reinvesting in growth, supporting our paid media and Meta efforts, and expanding our creative team to produce more content and ads. More creative output means more chances to connect with customers and fuel a rebound.

We’re also rethinking channels beyond direct-to-consumer. Target was a strong retail partner for years. Retail as a channel still holds potential — perhaps it’s independent salons, boutique pharmacies, and grocery stores. The goal is to diversify. Beardbrand.com will always be our home base, but we’re a business that sells to people, not just an ecommerce brand.

It’s exciting to think ahead instead of looking back. We’re aiming for 7% profitability this year — that’s breakeven in my book. It provides us with a buffer for unpredictable events, such as lawsuits, audits, and air conditioning failures. The real goal is 17% profit — that’s when we can fund growth, hire employees, and breathe easier. Anything beyond that is the sweet spot where the stress and sacrifice start to feel worth it.

I’m excited again — for the team, for the future, and what we’re building.