5 Predictions for 2025 Holiday Shopping

Could it be that Americans are heading into the holiday shopping season with confidence?

From faster delivery and cross-border buying to small business growth and AI-powered shopping tools, the coming Christmas season promises to be both bold and efficient — or at least that’s what I predict.

Near Instant Gratification

Fast, free delivery has become so common that consumers will pick up or receive at least 35% of orders placed in November and December within 24 hours.

I foresee a couple of factors driving speedy deliveries.

First, Amazon’s infrastructure prioritizes rapid delivery. In urban areas, Amazon delivers approximately 60% of Prime orders the next day. Rural delivery lowers the average, but Fulfillment by Amazon shipments will provide nearly instant shopping gratification.

Second, buy online, pick up in-store purchasing has grown rapidly and could soon represent 10% of U.S. ecommerce sales, according to Capital One Shopping.

Canadian-American Relations

Canadian shoppers are among the most active cross-border consumers worldwide. In a given year, about half of folks north of the border shop with a U.S. ecommerce business.

Holiday shopping has become a digital ritual — convenient and quiet.

Despite tariff disputes, I believe these shopping habits are both resilient and beneficial. Canadian buyers are accustomed to shopping at U.S. stores online owing to value and variety. And, the nations have been friends for too long to experience lasting trade disruptions.

With this in mind, expect at least 55% of Canadian shoppers to make at least one holiday purchase from U.S. ecommerce stores in 2025.

Small Business Growth

I expect small, independent online retailers will grow by approximately 10% in 2025, outperforming overall ecommerce performance and reaching roughly $15.5 billion in U.S. holiday revenue.

In comparison, Shopify merchants alone generated about $11.5 billion during the 2024 holiday peak sale period. Etsy sellers added about $2 billion.

The growth should come from small brands that sell craft or U.S.-made products.

AI Shopping

During the peak gift-giving season, at least 50% of North American shoppers will use artificial intelligence for shopping. Consumers will chat, search, seek recommendations, and even make purchases with the help of AI tools.

Last year, fewer than 15% of U.S. shoppers consulted AI for holiday gift giving, reportedly, but much has changed in a year. AI is present in nearly every tool, including Google.

Hence AI product discovery will likely be the top ecommerce traffic source in 2025.

Consumer Confidence

I was pessimistic last year about U.S. holiday ecommerce growth, and it showed in my failed predictions, listed below. If I am going to err this year, it will be on the side of being too optimistic.

The U.S. stock market has performed well of late. For example, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite index recently hit record highs. The driver for this boom may be trade optimism and solid corporate earnings.

I suspect this enthusiasm will carry over into holiday gift-giving in 2025. The key factor will be whether shoppers believe they can afford to spend.

Last Year’s Predictions

Since 2013 I have predicted ecommerce trends and sales for the coming holiday season. In 2024, I was incorrect in four of my five predictions, making last year’s forecasting my worst yet. Here are the embarrassing specifics.

Mobile commerce will represent 54% of holiday ecommerce sales: correct. Adobe reported that U.S. holiday sales on mobile devices reached $131.5 billion, accounting for 54.4% of the overall online total.

Ecommerce holiday sales grow 5% year-over-year: wrong. I was too pessimistic last year. I wrote that early holiday predictions, including one suggesting 23% growth in 2024, were “too optimistic, given the contentious U.S. election, inflation, and other economic woes.” Most sources put the actual growth at 8.7%.

Email volume grows 25% during the 2024 holiday season: wrong. This one was more difficult to measure, but nonetheless, I likely missed the mark. Global email volume grew about 4.3% year-over-year during the fourth quarter, according to multiple sources.

40% of Gen  Zs use social commerce this holiday season: wrong. Most estimates place the actual number at 32% for Gen Zs (ages 13 to 28), while an estimated 12% of all U.S. consumers shopped social in 2024.

BNPL accounts for 9% of online holiday sales: wrong. About 7.7% of U.S. holiday purchases in November and December 2024 were buy-now, pay-later, representing $18.2 billion, per Adobe.

Charts: U.S. TikTok Shop BFCM Sales 2024

Adobe estimates U.S. shoppers spent $41.1 billion online in the five days from Thanksgiving 2024 through Cyber Monday. Shopify says global merchants on its platform received $11.5 billion in revenue from Black Friday through Cyber Monday.

The $137.14 million in sales on TikTok Shop for 2024 Black Friday ($85.9 million) and Cyber Monday ($51.24 million) may seem small, but the platform is little more than a year old, with growth rates far exceeding most retailers and marketplaces.

Charm.io is a U.S.-based data provider helping retailers, sales teams, and investors with in-depth industry analytics, including the TikTok Shop performance metrics in this recap.

According to Charm, from Black Friday 2024 through Cyber Monday, Tarte Cosmetics (makeup) emerged as the top-performing brand on U.S. TikTok Shop, generating an impressive $15.33 million in revenue. Goli Nutrition (supplements) followed with $9.17 million, and Halara (female apparel) secured the third spot with $7.28 million.

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The top-performing products highlighted diverse consumer interests. The Flybird Vibration Plate Exercise Machine led with $1.17 million in revenue from 15,940 sold units, followed by the Rhino USA Retractable Ratchet Straps ($981,190, 21,0000 units) and the ecozy Nugget Ice Maker ($930,650, 8,360 units).

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U.S. TikTok Shop’s top categories from Black Friday through Cyber Monday underscored broad consumer appeal. “Beauty & Personal Care” led with $51.11 million in revenue, followed by “Womenswear” with $26.47 million, and “Sports & Outdoors” at $19.21 million.

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Per Charm.io, livestreams were a powerful sales driver, with the 14-hour “Black Friday Knockout!” from Canvas Beauty Brand (hair and skin products) generating $2.10 million in revenue from 2.25 million viewers. The “Cyber Monday Mega Live” 10-hour event from Simply Mandys (cosmetics)  stood out with $667,430 in sales and 1.49 million viewers.

Sales Report 2024: Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday

Online retailers enjoyed strong sales during “Cyber Five,” the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday and the traditional kickoff to the holiday shopping season.

According to Adobe Analytics, U.S. consumers set a record by spending $41.1 billion online during Cyber Five 2024, marking an 8.2% increase from last year’s total of $38 billion. For all of November through Cyber Monday (Nov. 1 through Dec. 2), consumers spent $131.5 billion online, a notable 9% rise over 2023.

Adobe compiles its data by analyzing ecommerce transactions across more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories.

Cyber Monday sets a record

As in past years, Cyber Monday was the biggest online shopping day among the Cyber Five — and for the year. U.S. online sales for the day were $13.3 billion, up 7.3% compared 2023. During the peak hours, 8 p.m. to 10 p.m. EST, Cyber Monday shoppers spent $15.8 million online every minute, Adobe says.

Toys sold exceptionally well online during Cyber Monday. Adobe reports that toy sales on that day were 680% higher than on an average day in October 2024 — a comparison Adobe uses to measure the impact of the holiday season. Meanwhile, online sales of personal care products were 530% compared to an average October day. By the same measure, online jewelry sales were up 478%, appliances sales gained 464%, electronics gained 452%, and apparel sales grew 392%.

A significant development was artificial intelligence chatbots — ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, more — a still small but fast-growing marketing channel. Adobe found that traffic to retail websites from chatbots increased an astounding 1,950% on Cyber Monday from 2023.

In addition, Adobe says sales attributed to “affiliates and partners,” which include social media influencers, represented 20.3% of Cyber Monday sales.

Adobe found that consumers made a record $991.2 million in Cyber Monday purchases using buy-now pay-later, up 5.5% year over year. Most (75.2%) of those BNPL transactions took place on mobile devices.

Thanksgiving, Black Friday

While Cyber Monday was record-setting, Thanksgiving (Nov. 28) and Black Friday (Nov. 29) also grew from the prior year, Adobe says. Thanksgiving online sales reached $6.1 billion, up 8.8% compared with 2023’s Turkey Day. Online sales on Black Friday hit $10.8 billion, up 10.2% from the comparable day last year.

“Early discounts were strong enough that many consumers felt comfortable hitting the buy button earlier in Cyber Week, with Cyber Monday becoming ‘last call’ for shoppers to take advantage of big holiday deals,” Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights, said in a statement.

Adobe expects online sales for the 2024 holiday season (Nov. 1 through Dec. 31) to reach $240.8 billion, up 8.4% from $222.1 billion in 2023.

Meanwhile, the National Retail Federation’s annual survey confirmed shoppers were out in force during the Cyber Five.

NRF estimates a record 197 million Americans shopped (online and offline) in the 5 days, surpassing NRF’s initial expectations of 183.4 million. Online shoppers totaled 124.3 million, down from 134.2 million last year, while 126 million consumers shopped in-store, up from 121.4 million in 2023.

More mobile

Adobe predicts 2024 will be the “most mobile” year for online holiday sales, and so far, it has. From Nov. 1 through Dec. 2, Adobe says 53.1% of online purchases — totaling $69.8 — came from mobile devices (smartphones and tablets). This is 14.1% higher than in 2023 and reflects the growing mobile shopping trend.

On Cyber Monday, Adobe says 57% of online purchases — $7.6 billion — were on mobile, compared to 33% in 2019, five years ago.

Consumers appear confident

With about 20 shopping days left until Christmas, consumers’ moods could determine a mediocre versus a good year for retailers. Two days before Thanksgiving, The Conference Board, a business think tank, released a report indicating consumers are in a spending mood.

The group’s Consumer Confidence Index increased in November to its highest level since July 2023, marking the second consecutive month of increased optimism. The index grew to 111.7, up 2.1 points from 109.6 in October. A level above 100 generally indicates consumers are confident about the economy, which bodes well for the retail industry.

Data Suggest Solid 2024 Holiday Sales

Based on expert projections and the latest economic data, the 2024 holiday shopping season has the potential to be a good one for online retailers.

The National Retail Federation says a record 183.4 million Americans plan to shop in physical stores and online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year. That would be up from the previous record of 182 million in 2023.

For the entire holiday season, NRF projects that the internet will again be the top shopping destination for holiday shoppers, with 57% of U.S. consumers planning to do at least some of their holiday shopping online. Department and grocery stores will tie for second at 46% each, and discount stores will be in third place at 45%.

The NRF expects total (online and offline) 2024 U.S. holiday sales in November and December to increase up to 2.6% over 2023, reaching $989.9 billion. That would amount to a record average spend of $902 per person for gifts, food, decorations, and other seasonal items. Online holiday sales in 2024 will reach $300.0 billion, up 8.3% from the prior year, according to the NRF.

‘The most mobile’ year for ecommerce

Adobe expects U.S. online holiday sales to hit a record of $240.8 billion (PDF) in November and December, up 8.4% from 2023. Adobe says that includes a projected record of $128.1 billion in mobile device purchases, giving mobile a 53.2% share of online holiday spending. That would make 2024’s holiday season “the most mobile of all time,” Adobe says.

Adobe expects online sales for Cyber Week (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) to hit $40.6 billion, with Cyber Monday being the biggest shopping day of the season at $13.2 billion in online sales.

Another indication of the strength of online shopping comes from the annual holiday spending survey of The Conference Board, a think tank. The survey found that 43% of U.S. consumers expect to purchase at least half of their gifts online in 2024, while just 8% expect to buy gifts entirely in physical stores.

The Conference Board also found that consumers plan to spend an average of $1,063 on holiday-related purchases in 2024, up 7.9% from 2023. That includes an average of $677 spent on gifts, up 3.4% from last year.

The think tank’s survey found that 52% of U.S. shoppers plan to spend the same amount on gifts in 2024 as in 2023, while 23% plan to spend more and 25% less than last year.

A $1 trillion year?

The data and consulting firm Forrester Research expects total (online and offline) U.S. holiday retail sales to hit a cool $1 trillion this year, a 3.7% increase from last year. Forrester says online sales will grow 10.1% year-over-year, reaching $257 billion, or nearly 26% of total U.S. holiday retail sales, up from 24.2% in 2023.

In a report, Forrester says, “Online retail sales for the holiday period will grow faster than in the previous two years but slower than the average of pre-pandemic years when they mostly grew by double digits.”

“2024’s holiday season for e-commerce looks promising but not exceptional,” Forrester analyst Jitender Miglani, based in New Delhi, India, told Practical Ecommerce in an email. “Sales are expected to grow faster than the past two years but slower than the double-digit growth seen pre-pandemic.”

Miglani expects holiday sales growth “to be largely volume-driven rather than inflation-driven.” That’s because “goods inflation is nearly zero, while headline inflation remains slightly above 2%, primarily due to higher inflation in services,” he added.

Additional indicators

Other surveys, projections, and economic data point to a cheerful, if not exuberant, holiday season for retailers.

• The consulting firm Bain & Co. expects online retail sales growth of 9.5% in 2024. That’s down significantly from a 13.1% 10-year average. But Bain expects physical store sales to grow at a slim 0.5%, leading to a total holiday sales growth of 3%, the smallest year-over-year gain since 2018 and more than two points lower than the 10-year average of 5.2%, Bain says.

• The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that average hourly earnings in the U.S. grew faster than inflation from September to October and year over year. The September-to-October increase was 0.1%. The agency says average hourly earnings after inflation rose 1.4%, seasonally adjusted, from October 2023 to October 2024.

• The BLS also reports that the economy kept generating net jobs in October, albeit slowly after hurricanes Helene and Milton. Total nonfarm payroll employment grew by 12,000, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%, BLS reported. Employment in health care and government continued to increase, while temporary help services lost jobs and manufacturing employment declined due to strike activity.

• The payroll processing firm ADP presented a much rosier employment picture than the BLS. The firm, which uses a different methodology than the government, says private employers added 233,000 jobs in October, the most since July 2023.

5 Predictions for the 2024 Holiday Shopping Season

Get ready for a short and competitive 2024 Christmas shopping season as mobile devices, the election, email, and social commerce take center stage.

What follows are five holiday-shopping predictions, input from AI, and a report card of my forecasts last year.

54% on Mobile

In 2023, slightly more than half of U.S. online purchases from November 1 and December 25 came from mobile devices, accounting for approximately $113.5 billion, according to Adobe. This year, mobile will represent 54% of holiday ecommerce sales.

Three factors drive the growth: age, marketplaces, and buy-now pay-later options.

First, there is the age factor. Gen Z shoppers (ages 18 to 25) are more likely to purchase from a mobile device, and some 15% of Gen Z consumers buy directly from social media sites, according to Emarketer. Social commerce is mobile-friendly, doubling the impact.

Second, Amazon and other massive marketplaces accounted for more than half of holiday sales last year. These marketplaces offer native mobile apps that make shopping from a smartphone effortless.

Third, BNPL is increasingly popular for Christmas purchases. It’s often associated with relatively large retailers and marketplaces, which may offer a better mobile shopping experience.

5% Increase in Ecommerce

Early predictions from Emarketer, ecommerce platform makers, and others had the 2024 Christmas shopping season growing to $271 billion, a 23% increase from the $222.1 billion in 2023.

That is too optimistic, given the contentious U.S. election, inflation, and other economic woes. I’m predicting a 5% increase this year.

Email Volume Grows 25%

In 2024, we will continue to see growth in email marketing.

For example, last year Sinch Mailgun, which provides email infrastructure services, reported a 16% year-over-year increase in email volume for the Black Friday to Cyber Monday weekend. For all of November 2023, the volume rose 22% over the prior year.

The Christmas shopping season is relatively short in 2024 — just 29 days — which could make digital advertising more competitive and expensive. Marketers will turn to email to boost sales.

40% of Gen Zs Use Social

A recent survey of Gen Z shoppers found that about four in 10 will use some form of social commerce during the 2024 Christmas shopping season.

TikTok Shop, launched in September 2023, generated $11.9 billion in gross merchandise volume in 2023. TikTok does not typically share performance results, but it is reasonable to assume growth. Add the increase on other platforms, and social commerce in 2024 could be significant.

BNPL 9% of Retail Sales

For the second consecutive year, I predict that BNPL will represent 9% of total U.S. online holiday sales.

I overestimated last year’s BNPL growth, which was 7.4%. However, a recent Experian survey found that about 25% of American consumers plan to use BNPL this year. Thus I’ll stick with 9% growth for 2024.

Moreover, the ratio of in-store to ecommerce sales is leveling out. In 2023, ecommerce represented 34% of U.S. holiday sales, up one percentage point from the prior year. Brick-and-click retailers will find more ways to get shopping into physical locations. One of those ways is to promote BNPL offers in-store.

AI Predictions

After completing my list of five 2024 holiday predictions, I asked three generative artificial intelligence tools to do the same, using this prompt:

“Based on historical data and recent projections, make five bold predictions about the 2024 holiday shopping season for an audience of retail and ecommerce professionals.”

ChatGPT 4.o (by Open AI)

ChatGPT 4 by OpenAI

• Expect social commerce to account for nearly 20% of all online holiday transactions.

• Sustainability will become a critical factor for consumers during the 2024 holiday season. Expect a 25% increase in sales for retailers offering carbon-neutral shipping, recyclable packaging, and sustainably sourced products.

• Omnichannel fulfillment will dominate, with same-day delivery as the norm.

• Mobile shopping will outpace desktop and in-store experiences, with more than 70% of holiday ecommerce transactions occurring on smartphones.

Grok-2 Beta (by X)

Grok-2 Beta by X

• Mobile commerce will dominate. Over 60% of all ecommerce transactions during the holiday season will occur on mobile devices, driven by enhanced mobile payment solutions and an increase in mobile-first consumer behavior.

• Social commerce will rise. Retailers who integrate seamless in-app purchasing experiences could see up to a 30% increase in sales directly through social media.

• Despite the holiday season being structurally shorter, the intensity of shopping activities will spike earlier and more sharply. Retailers will start their holiday promotions as early as late October, with a significant emphasis on pre-Black Friday deals.

• AI personalization and predictive shopping will blossom. Retailers will use AI to not only suggest products but to predict what consumers might want before they explicitly search for it, potentially increasing conversion rates by offering personalized “surprise and delight” deals. This could lead to AI influencing over 25% of online holiday purchases.

• With increasing awareness about environmental issues, sustainability will become a significant factor in purchasing decisions.

Gemini (by Google)

Gemini by Google

• We’ll see mobile devices account for over 60% of all online holiday shopping traffic and close to 50% of total online sales.

• AI-powered personalization will go mainstream, with retailers using customer data and predictive analytics to create highly targeted product recommendations, offers, and experiences.

• Social media platforms will become major players in the holiday shopping landscape.

• Sustainability drives purchase decisions. Consumer awareness of environmental and social issues will reach new heights, with shoppers increasingly choosing brands and products that align with their values.

• Supply chain disruptions will continue. Despite efforts to mitigate disruptions, ongoing challenges like port congestion, labor shortages, and material scarcity will persist, impacting product availability and pricing.

Last Year’s Predictions

Since 2013 I have predicted ecommerce trends and sales for the coming holiday season. Here’s how my 2023 forecast went.

Holiday spending grows less than 5% — correct. The National Retail Federation put total holiday sales growth at 3.8% in 2023. Emarketer set the 2023 holiday season growth rate at 3.9% while others had it as high as 4.9%, which was below the 5% prediction. By comparison, in 2022 year-over-year U.S. holiday spending grew 8.1%.

Buy-now pay-later accounts for 9% of retail sales — wrong. While the number of BNPL transactions grew 14% last year, they totaled just $16.6 billion, according to Adobe Analytics — 7.4% of sales.

Discounting drives sales — correct. This prediction was easy, with some estimates concluding that 60% of Christmas orders in 2023 had at least one sale item. Emarketer put it this way, “Deep discounts drove consumer spending across the Cyber Five in 2023.”

Shoppers wait for those discounts — correct. While U.S. Veteran’s Day (November 11) sales remained relatively flat from 2022 to 2023, Black Friday retail sales enjoyed a 7.5% year-over-year increase, and ecommerce leaped about 19%. Shoppers waited for the Black Friday and Cyber Monday discounts.

Generative AI impacts product discovery — unknown. This prediction is difficult to measure. I could not find data on how generative search results had impacted holiday purchase behavior.

A Mobile Milestone for Christmas 2023

American shoppers dialed up $5.3 billion in 2023 Black Friday smartphone purchases, accounting for 54% of online sales for the day after Thanksgiving, according to Adobe.

Globally, nearly 80% of all online sales occur on a mobile device, per Statista, mainly due to the Asia-Pacific region.

North America generally and the United States specifically have been slower to adopt mobile ecommerce, preferring the more expansive desktop experiences, but that will likely change in 2023 — at least for the Christmas shopping season.

Mobile to Pass Desktop

Seemingly everyone will shop on smartphones this 2023 holiday.

Adobe, which tracks holiday ecommerce spending in the United States, “expects mobile to overtake desktop for the first time this holiday season, with more than half (51.2%) of spend online to take place on mobile.”

As evidence, U.S. Black Friday mobile sales grew about 10.4% year-over-year. On Thanksgiving Day, typically even better for mobile ecommerce, shoppers spent $3.3 billion from mobile devices, an increase of 14% compared to 2022.

Mobile Implications

The fact that U.S. shoppers increasingly use smartphones for purchases is not surprising. The surprise is that it took so long. Ecommerce and retail observers have predicted the rise of mobile ecommerce for more than a decade.

Thus it’s a good time to reflect on broader implications for all merchants.

Mobile apps. By some estimates, including data from Sensor Tower, a market intelligence firm, about one in five American adults has downloaded at least one of Amazon’s mobile apps.

Five years ago, Amazon said that 85% of its mobile shoppers used the app versus the website. Assuming the percentage is unchanged, we can see an immediate challenge for small and midsized online sellers.

In 2018, many more Amazon mobile shoppers used the app than the website. Here are the home pages of both in 2023, with the website on the left.

As mobile accounts for a greater share of ecommerce sales (again, 51.2% this holiday season) and ecommerce becomes an increasing part of total retail sales (15.6% in Q3 2023), more shoppers could start a purchase journey on a mobile app — like Amazon’s — instead of a dedicated search engine.

SMBs might need to entice shoppers to download their mobile apps or ensure their items appear in the most popular marketplace apps, such as Amazon, via product listings or advertising.

Conversion rates. Despite generating more revenue, mobile devices have much lower conversion rates.

For example, on Thanksgiving Day 2023, desktop visits converted at 4.4%, while mobile shoppers converted at 2.3%, per Adobe. On Black Friday, those rates were 6.5% and 3.2%, respectively.

So why does it take about twice as much traffic on mobile to generate a sale? It’s likely the shopping experience or the context.

Closing that gap — and elevating return on ad spend — will be vital for merchants.

Average order value. Mobile purchases tend to include relatively fewer items than desktop, according to Adobe. In the lead-up to Black Friday 2023, Americans on average purchased between 2.6 and 2.9 items on smartphones and 3.2 and 3.9 on desktops.

Average order values likely follow a similar pattern. Hence boosting mobile AOVs will be a priority for merchants given the cost impacts on shipping, packaging, or even customer acquisition.

Mobile optimization. For years Google and other search engines have used mobile-first indexes. So optimizing a site for mobile rankings and conversions should be old hat.

To confirm, check your site’s percentage of traffic and conversions from mobile. Does either trail the industry?

A Mobile Christmas

If Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday trends continue, U.S. Christmas shopping in 2023 will reach a milestone. More than 50% of sales will come from smartphones. Next year the percentage will presumably be higher.