Beardbrand Shifts to Growth, New Channels

I occasionally focus an “Ecommerce Conversations” episode on Beardbrand, my business. I do that not to promote the company but to share our challenges and successes in the hopes of helping others.

In 2024 alone, I’ve addressed last year’s sales decline, continued hurdles, and the hassle of changing fulfillment providers. I also interviewed our attorney, who successfully defended us in a lawsuit alleging accessibility violations.

We’ve now overcome many of our operational setbacks. We had to relaunch certain products and switch our manufacturer. We’ve moved to a warehouse here in Texas, which gives us more oversight. With these problems solved, the focus shifts back to growth and finding new channels.

That’s what I’ll discuss in this episode. My entire audio is embedded below. The transcript is edited for clarity and length.

Black Friday, Cyber Monday

Our 2024 Black Friday and Cyber Monday campaigns didn’t meet expectations. Traditionally, our BFCM focus is product launches instead of discounting. We wanted to introduce a new product for Black Friday, but the launch was delayed until Cyber Monday and then pushed to mid-December. This disrupted our holiday selling. Sales weren’t down, but the missed product launch made a noticeable dent.

Last year, we introduced a bundling promo — buy three items, get a fourth free — and it performed so well that we kept it as a permanent feature. We had no similar Black Friday promo this year. We considered a subscription-based discount but decided against it due to concerns about sending the wrong message to customers and the potential complexity of managing it.

I also sent an email inadvertently encouraging customers to wait for Cyber Monday instead of taking advantage of Black Friday deals.

Cyber Monday was our best revenue day since Black Friday 2023. We had planned to launch our utility deodorant this year, but it too got pushed to mid-December.

We reverted on Monday to offering pre-launch pricing to loyal customers. They had a short window to purchase the product at a lower price. This strategy is my preferred way to handle discounts because it feels less like a markdown and more like a product release with dynamic pricing.

We sent three emails throughout Cyber Monday promoting the eventual launch, which helped boost sales. However, there were some logistical hiccups. Our pre-launch pricing wasn’t displaying correctly, and we had to fix it last minute. Despite the challenges, the promo went well, and we hit our sales goals.

Sales Growth

November 2024 sales were up about 8% compared to last year. However, we’re replacing lost organic YouTube sales with ads. In 2022, 48% of new customer sales came from YouTube, generating roughly $670,000. By 2023, that dropped to $366,000; this year, we’ll be lucky to reach $250,000. With YouTube becoming less effective, we’ve had to shift to social platforms such as Facebook and X, bringing our overall 2024 advertising spend 75% higher than last year.

Adapting for 2025

As we move to 2025, we’re in a better place operationally, but we need growth channels. Beardbrand’s products are consumable — ideally, customers will reorder. We may explore new fragrances or product sizes in 2025 but won’t go overboard with launches. The goal is to focus on top-selling products with consistent customer education and communication.

Our business is fundamentally shifting. We must assess the growth potential of organic channels such as YouTube or, instead, shift to advertising for customer acquisition.

I never set sales targets. I focus instead on the inputs and let the outputs follow. Businesses should appreciate the hard work and effort, regardless of whether it pans out. Factors like timing, market conditions, and even packaging can influence success, as can a bit of luck.

Ultimately, it’s essential to enjoy the journey. Every day is a gift. There’s no right or wrong way to build a business — it’s about aligning it with your values and goals. That’s the beauty of being an entrepreneur.

How the Ukraine-Russia war is reshaping the tech sector in Eastern Europe

At first glance, the Mosphera scooter may look normal—just comically oversized. It’s like the monster truck of scooters, with a footplate seven inches off the ground that’s wide enough to stand on with your feet slightly apart—which you have to do to keep your balance, because when you flip the accelerator with a thumb, it takes off like a rocket. While the version I tried in a parking lot in Riga’s warehouse district had a limiter on the motor, the production version of the supersized electric scooter can hit 100 kilometers (62 miles) per hour on the flat. The all-terrain vehicle can also go 300 kilometers on a single charge and climb 45-degree inclines. 

Latvian startup Global Wolf Motors launched in 2020 with a hope that the Mosphera would fill a niche in micromobility. Like commuters who use scooters in urban environments, farmers and vintners could use the Mosphera to zip around their properties; miners and utility workers could use it for maintenance and security patrols; police and border guards could drive them on forest paths. And, they thought, maybe the military might want a few to traverse its bases or even the battlefield—though they knew that was something of a long shot.

When co-founders Henrijs Bukavs and Klavs Asmanis first went to talk to Latvia’s armed forces, they were indeed met with skepticism—a military scooter, officials implied, didn’t make much sense—and a wall of bureaucracy. They found that no matter how good your pitch or how glossy your promo video (and Global Wolf’s promo is glossy: a slick montage of scooters jumping, climbing, and speeding in formation through woodlands and deserts), getting into military supply chains meant navigating layer upon layer of officialdom.

Then Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and everything changed. In the desperate early days of the war, Ukrainian combat units wanted any equipment they could get their hands on, and they were willing to try out ideas—like a military scooter—that might not have made the cut in peacetime. Asmanis knew a Latvian journalist heading to Ukraine; through the reporter’s contacts, the startup arranged to ship two Mospheras to the Ukrainian army. 

Within weeks, the scooters were at the front line—and even behind it, being used by Ukrainian special forces scouts on daring reconnaissance missions. It was an unexpected but momentous step for Global Wolf, and an early indicator of a new demand that’s sweeping across tech companies along Ukraine’s borders: for civilian products that can be adapted quickly for military use.

COURTESY OF GLOBAL WOLF

Global Wolf’s high-definition marketing materials turned out to be nowhere near as effective as a few minutes of grainy phone footage from the war. The company has since shipped out nine more scooters to the Ukrainian army, which has asked for another 68. Where Latvian officials once scoffed, the country’s prime minister went to see Mosphera’s factory in April 2024, and now dignitaries and defense officials from the country are regular visitors. 

It might have been hard a few years ago to imagine soldiers heading to battle on oversized toys made by a tech startup with no military heritage. But Ukraine’s resistance to Russia’s attacks has been a miracle of social resilience and innovation—and the way the country has mobilized is serving both a warning and an inspiration to its neighbors. They’ve watched as startups, major industrial players, and political leaders in Ukraine have worked en masse to turn civilian technology into weapons and civil defense systems. They’ve seen Ukrainian entrepreneurs help bootstrap a military-industrial complex that is retrofitting civilian drones into artillery spotters and bombers, while software engineers become cyberwarriors and AI companies shift to battlefield intelligence. Engineers work directly with friends and family on the front line, iterating their products with incredible speed.

Their successes—often at a fraction of the cost of conventional weapons systems—have in turn awakened European governments and militaries to the potential of startup-style innovation and startups to the potential dual uses of their products, meaning ones that have legitimate civilian applications but can be modified at scale to turn them into weapons. 

This heady mix of market demand and existential threat is pulling tech companies in Latvia and the other Baltic states into a significant pivot. Companies that can find military uses for their products are hardening them and discovering ways to get them in front of militaries that are increasingly willing to entertain the idea of working with startups. It’s a turn that may only become more urgent if the US under incoming President Donald Trump becomes less willing to underwrite the continent’s defense.

But while national governments, the European Union, and NATO are all throwing billions of dollars of public money into incubators and investment funds—followed closely by private-sector investors—some entrepreneurs and policy experts who have worked closely with Ukraine warn that Europe might have only partially learned the lessons from Ukraine’s resistance.

If Europe wants to be ready to meet the threat of attack, it needs to find new ways of working with the tech sector. That includes learning how Ukraine’s government and civil society adapted to turn civilian products into dual-use tools quickly and cut through bureaucracy to get innovative solutions to the front. Ukraine’s resilience shows that military technology isn’t just about what militaries buy but about how they buy it, and about how politics, civil society, and the tech sector can work together in a crisis. 

“[Ukraine], unfortunately, is the best defense technology experimentation ground in the world right now. If you are not in Ukraine, then you are not in the defense business.”

“I think that a lot of tech companies in Europe would do what is needed to do. They would put their knowledge and skills where they’re needed,” says Ieva Ilves, a veteran Latvian diplomat and technology policy expert. But many governments across the continent are still too slow, too bureaucratic, and too worried that they might appear to be wasting money, meaning, she says, that they are not necessarily “preparing the soil for if [a] crisis comes.”

“The question is,” she says, “on a political level, are we capable of learning from Ukraine?”

Waking up the neighbors

Many Latvians and others across the Baltic nations feel the threat of Russian aggression more viscerally than their neighbors in Western Europe. Like Ukraine, Latvia has a long border with Russia and Belarus, a large Russian-speaking minority, and a history of occupation. Also like Ukraine, it has been the target of more than a decade of so-called “hybrid war” tactics—cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and other attempts at destabilization—directed by Moscow. 

Since Russian tanks crossed into Ukraine two-plus years ago, Latvia has stepped up its preparations for a physical confrontation, investing more than €300 million ($316 million) in fortifications along the Russian border and reinstating a limited form of conscription to boost its reserve forces. Since the start of this year, the Latvian fire service has been inspecting underground structures around the country, looking for cellars, parking garages, and metro stations that could be turned into bomb shelters.

And much like Ukraine, Latvia doesn’t have a huge military-industrial complex that can churn out artillery shells or tanks en masse. 

What it and other smaller European countries can produce for themselves—and potentially sell to their allies—are small-scale weapons systems, software platforms, telecoms equipment, and specialized vehicles. The country is now making a significant investment in tools like Exonicus, a medical technology platform founded 11 years ago by Latvian sculptor Sandis Kondrats. Users of its augmented-reality battlefield-medicine training simulator put on a virtual reality headset that presents them with casualties, which they have to diagnose and figure out how to treat. The all-digital training saves money on mannequins, Kondrats says, and on critical field resources.

“If you use all the medical supplies on training, then you don’t have any medical supplies,” he says. Exonicus has recently broken into the military supply chain, striking deals with the Latvian, Estonian, US, and German militaries, and it has been training Ukrainian combat medics.

Medical technology company Exonicus has created an augmented-reality battlefield-medicine training simulator that presents users with casualties, which they have to diagnose and figure out how to treat.
GATIS ORLICKIS/BALTIC PICTURES

There’s also VR Cars, a company founded by two Latvian former rally drivers, that signed a contract in 2022 to develop off-road vehicles for the army’s special forces. And there is Entangle, a quantum encryption company that sells widgets that turn mobile phones into secure communications devices, and has recently received an innovation grant from the Latvian Ministry of Defense.

Unsurprisingly, a lot of the focus in Latvia has been on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones, which have become ubiquitous on both sides fighting in Ukraine, often outperforming weapons systems that cost an order of magnitude more. In the early days of the war, Ukraine found itself largely relying on machines bought from abroad, such as the Turkish-made Bayraktar strike aircraft and jury-rigged DJI quadcopters from China. It took a while, but within a year the country was able to produce home-grown systems.

As a result, a lot of the emphasis in defense programs across Europe is on UAVs that can be built in-country. “The biggest thing when you talk to [European ministries of defense] now is that they say, ‘We want a big amount of drones, but we also want our own domestic production,’” says Ivan Tolchinsky, CEO of Atlas Dynamics, a drone company headquartered in Riga. Atlas Dynamics builds drones for industrial uses and has now made hardened versions of its surveillance UAVs that can resist electronic warfare and operate in battlefield conditions.

Agris Kipurs founded AirDog in 2014 to make drones that could track a subject autonomously; they were designed for people doing outdoor sports who wanted to film themselves without needing to fiddle with a controller. He and his co-founders sold the company to a US home security company, Alarm.com, in 2020. “For a while, we did not know exactly what we would build next,” Kipurs says. “But then, with the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it became rather obvious.”

His new company, Origin Robotics, has recently “come out of stealth mode,” he says, after two years of research and development. Origin has built on the team’s experience in consumer drones and its expertise in autonomous flight to begin to build what Kipurs calls “an airborne precision-guided weapon system”—a guided bomb that a soldier can carry in a backpack. 

The Latvian government has invested in encouraging startups like these, as well as small manufacturers, to develop military-capable UAVs by establishing a €600,000 prize fund for domestic drone startups and a €10 million budget to create a new drone program, working with local and international manufacturers. 

VR Cars was founded by two Latvian former rally drivers and has developed off-road vehicles for the army’s special forces.

Latvia is also the architect and co-leader, with the UK, of the Drone Coalition, a multicountry initiative that’s directing more than €500 million toward building a drone supply chain in the West. Under the initiative, militaries run competitions for drone makers, rewarding high performers with contracts and sending their products to Ukraine. Its grantees are often not allowed to publicize their contracts, for security reasons. “But the companies which are delivering products through that initiative are new to the market,” Kipurs says. “They are not the companies that were there five years ago.”

Even national telecommunications company LMT, which is partly government owned, is working on drones and other military-grade hardware, including sensor equipment and surveillance balloons. It’s developing a battlefield “internet of things” system—essentially, a system that can track in real time all the assets and personnel in a theater of war. “In Latvia, more or less, we are getting ready for war,” says former naval officer Kaspars Pollaks, who heads an LMT division that focuses on defense innovation. “We are just taking the threat really seriously. Because we will be operationally alone [if Russia invades].”

The Latvian government’s investments are being mirrored across Europe: NATO has expanded its Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA) program, which runs startup incubators for dual-use technologies across the continent and the US, and launched a separate €1 billion startup fund in 2022. Adding to this, the European Investment Fund, a publicly owned investment company, launched a €175 million fund-of-funds this year to support defense technologies with dual-use potential. And the European Commission has earmarked more than €7 billion for defense research and development between now and 2027. 

Private investors are also circling, looking for opportunities to profit from the boom. Figures from the European consultancy Dealroom show that fundraising by dual-use and military-tech companies on the continent was just shy of $1 billion in 2023—up nearly a third over 2022, despite an overall slowdown in venture capital activity. 

Atlas Dynamics builds drones for industrial uses and now makes hardened versions that can resist electronic warfare and operate in battlefield conditions.
ATLAS AERO

When Atlas Dynamics started in 2015, funding was hard to come by, Tolchinsky says: “It’s always hard to make it as a hardware company, because VCs are more interested in software. And if you start talking about the defense market, people say, ‘Okay, it’s a long play for 10 or 20 years, it’s not interesting.’” That’s changed since 2022. “Now, what we see because of this war is more and more venture capital that wants to invest in defense companies,” Tolchinsky says.

But while money is helping startups get off the ground, to really prove the value of their products they need to get their tools in the hands of people who are going to use them. When I asked Kipurs if his products are currently being used in Ukraine, he only said: “I’m not allowed to answer that question directly. But our systems are with end users.”

Battle tested

Ukraine has moved on from the early days of the conflict, when it was willing to take almost anything that could be thrown at the invaders. But that experience has been critical in pushing the government to streamline its procurement processes dramatically to allow its soldiers to try out new defense-tech innovations. 

a soldier's hands as he kneels on the ground to assemble a UAV

Origin Robotics has built on a history of producing consumer drones to create a guided bomb that a soldier can carry in a backpack. 

This system has, at times, been chaotic and fraught with risk. Fake crowdfunding campaigns have been set up to scam donors and steal money. Hackers have used open-source drone manuals and fake procurement contracts in phishing attacks in Ukraine. Some products have simply not worked as well at the front as their designers hoped, with reports of US-made drones falling victim to Russian jamming—or even failing to take off at all. 

Technology that doesn’t work at the front puts soldiers at risk, so in many cases they have taken matters into their own hands. Two Ukrainian drone makers tell me that military procurement in the country has been effectively flipped on its head: If you want to sell your gear to the armed forces, you don’t go to the general staff—you go directly to the soldiers and put it in their hands. Once soldiers start asking their senior officers for your tool, you can go back to the bureaucrats and make a deal.

Many foreign companies have simply donated their products to Ukraine—partly out of a desire to help, and partly because they’ve identified a (potentially profitable) opportunity to expose them to the shortened innovation cycles of conflict and to get live feedback from those fighting. This can be surprisingly easy as some volunteer units handle their own parallel supply chains through crowdfunding and donations, and they are eager to try out new tools if someone is willing to give them freely. One logistics specialist supplying a front line unit, speaking anonymously as he’s not authorized to talk to the media, tells me that this spring, they turned to donated gear from startups in Europe and the US to fill gaps left by delayed US military aid, including untested prototypes of UAVs and communications equipment. 

All of this has allowed many companies to bypass the traditionally slow process of testing and demonstrating their products, for better and worse.

Tech companies’ rush into the conflict zone has unnerved some observers, who are worried that by going to war, companies have sidestepped ethical and safety concerns over their tools. Clearview AI gave Ukraine access to its controversial facial recognition tools to help identify Russia’s war dead, for example, sparking moral and practical questions over accuracy, privacy, and human rights—publishing images of those killed in war is arguably a violation of the Geneva Convention. Some high-profile tech executives, including Palantir CEO Alex Karp and former Google CEO-turned-military-tech-investor Eric Schmidt, have used the conflict to try to shift the global norms for using artificial intelligence in war, building systems that let machines select targets for attacks—which some experts worry is a gateway into autonomous “killer robots.”

LMT’s Pollaks says he has visited Ukraine often since the war began. Though he declines to give more details, he euphemistically describes Ukraine’s wartime bureaucracy as “nonstandardized.” If you want to blow something up in front of an audience in the EU, he says, you have to go through a whole lot of approvals, and the paperwork can take months, even years. In Ukraine, plenty of people are willing to try out your tools.

“[Ukraine], unfortunately, is the best defense technology experimentation ground in the world right now,” Pollaks says. “If you are not in Ukraine, then you are not in the defense business.”

Jack Wang, principal at UK-based venture capital fund Project A, which invests in military-tech startups, agrees that the Ukraine “track” can be incredibly fruitful. “If you sell to Ukraine, you get faster product and tech iteration, and live field testing,” he says. “The dollars might vary. Sometimes zero, sometimes quite a bit. But you get your product in the field faster.” 

The feedback that comes from the front is invaluable. Atlas Dynamics has opened an office in Ukraine, and its representatives there work with soldiers and special forces to refine and modify their products. When Russian forces started jamming a wide band of radio frequencies to disrupt communication with the drones, Atlas designed a smart frequency-hopping system, which scans for unjammed frequencies and switches control of the drone over to them, putting soldiers a step ahead of the enemy.

At Global Wolf, battlefield testing for the Mosphera has led to small but significant iterations of the product, which have come naturally as soldiers use it. One scooter-related problem on the front turned out to be resupplying soldiers in entrenched positions with ammunition. Just as urban scooters have become last-mile delivery solutions in cities, troops found that the Mosphera was well suited to shuttling small quantities of ammo at high speeds across rough ground or through forests. To make this job easier, Global Wolf tweaked the design of the vehicle’s optional extra trailer so that it perfectly fits eight NATO standard-sized bullet boxes.

Within weeks of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Mosphera scooters were at Ukraine’s front line—and even behind it, being used by Ukrainian special forces scouts.
GLOBAL WOLF

Some snipers prefer the electric Mosphera to noisy motorbikes or quads, using the vehicles to weave between trees to get into position. But they also like to shoot from the saddle—something they couldn’t do from the scooter’s footplate. So Global Wolf designed a stable seat that lets shooters fire without having to dismount. Some units wanted infrared lights, and the company has made those, too. These types of requests give the team ideas for new upgrades: “It’s like buying a car,” Asmanis says. “You can have it with air conditioning, without air conditioning, with heated seats.”

Being battle-tested is already proving to be a powerful marketing tool. Bukavs told me he thinks defense ministers are getting closer to moving from promises toward “action.” The Latvian police have bought a handful of Mospheras, and the country’s military has acquired some, too, for special forces units. (“We don’t have any information on how they’re using them,” Asmanis says. “It’s better we don’t ask,” Bukavs interjects.) Military distributors from several other countries have also approached them to market their units locally. 

Although they say their donations were motivated first and foremost by a desire to help Ukraine resist the Russian invasion, Bukavs and Asmanis admit that they have been paid back for their philanthropy many times over. 

Of course, all this could change soon, and the Ukraine “track” could very well be disrupted when Trump returns to office in January. The US has provided more than $64 billion worth of military aid to Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion. A significant amount of that has been spent in Europe, in what Wang calls a kind of “drop-shipping”—Ukraine asks for drones, for instance, and the US buys them from a company in Europe, which ships them directly to the war effort. 

Wang showed me a recent pitch deck from one European military-tech startup. In assessing the potential budgets available for its products, it compares the Ukrainian budget, which was in the tens of millions of dollars, and the “donated from everybody else” budget, which was a billion dollars. A large amount of that “everybody else” money comes from the US.

If, as many analysts expect, the Trump administration dramatically reduces or entirely stops US military aid to Ukraine, these young companies focused on military tech and dual-use tech will likely take a hit. “Ideally, the European side will step up their spending on European companies, but there will be a short-term gap,” Wang says.

A lasting change? 

Russia’s full-scale invasion exposed how significantly the military-industrial complex in Europe has withered since the Cold War. Across the continent, governments have cut back investments in hardware like ships, tanks, and shells, partly because of a belief that wars would be fought on smaller scales, and partly to trim their national budgets. 

“After decades of Europe reducing its combat capability,” Pollaks says, “now we are in the situation we are in. [It] will be a real challenge to ramp it up. And the way to do that, at least from our point of view, is real close integration between industry and the armed forces.”

This would hardly be controversial in the US, where the military and the defense industry often work closely together to develop new systems. But in Europe, this kind of collaboration would be “a bit wild,” Pollaks says. Militaries tend to be more closed off, working mainly with large defense contractors, and European investors have tended to be more squeamish about backing companies whose products could end up going to war.

As a result, despite the many positive signs for the developers of military tech, progress in overhauling the broader supply chain has been slower than many people in the sector would like.

Several founders of dual-use and military-tech companies in Latvia and the other Baltic states tell me they are often invited to events where they pitch to enthusiastic audiences of policymakers, but they never see any major orders afterward. “I don’t think any amount of VC blogging or podcasting will change how the military actually procures technology,” says Project A’s Wang. Despite what’s happening next door, Ukraine’s neighbors are still ultimately operating in peacetime. Government budgets remain tight, and even if the bureaucracy has become more flexible, layers upon layers of red tape remain.  

soldier in full camoflage firing a gun in a wooded area with smoke and several other soldiers out of focus behind him
Soldiers of the Latvian National Defense Service learn field combat skills in a training exercise.
GATIS INDRēVICS/ LATVIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE

Even Global Wolf’s Bukavs laments that a caravan of political figures has visited their factory but has not rewarded the company with big contracts. Despite Ukraine’s requests for the Mosphera scooters, for instance, they ultimately weren’t included in Latvia’s 2024 package of military aid due to budgetary constraints. 

What this suggests is that European governments have learned a partial lesson from Ukraine—that startups can give you an edge in conflict. But experts worry that the continent’s politics means it may still struggle to innovate at speed. Many Western European countries have built up substantial bureaucracies to protect their democracies from corruption or external influences. Authoritarian states aren’t so hamstrung, and they, too, have been watching the war in Ukraine closely. Russian forces are reportedly testing Chinese and Iranian drones at the front line. Even North Korea has its own drone program. 

The solution isn’t necessarily to throw out the mechanisms for accountability that are part of democratic society. But the systems that have been built up for good governance have led to fragility, sometimes leading governments to worry more about the politics of procurement than preparing for crises, according to Ilves and other policy experts I spoke to. 

“Procurement problems grow bigger and bigger when democratic societies lose trust in leadership,” says Ilves, who now advises Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation on cybersecurity policy and international cooperation. “If a Twitter [troll] starts to go after a defense procurement budget, he can start to shape policy.”

That makes it hard to give financial support to a tech company whose products you don’t need now, for example, but whose capabilities might be useful to have in an emergency—a kind of merchant marine for technology, on constant reserve in case it’s needed. “We can’t push European tech to keep innovating imaginative crisis solutions,” Ilves says. “Business is business. It works for money, not for ideas.” 

Even in Riga the war can feel remote, despite the Ukrainian flags flying from windows and above government buildings. Conversations about ordnance delivery and electronic warfare held in airy warehouse conversions can feel academic, even faintly absurd. In one incubator hub I visited in April, a company building a heavy-duty tracked ATV worked next door to an accounting software startup. On the top floor, bean bag chairs were laid out and a karaoke machine had been set up for a party that evening. 

A sense of crisis is needed to jolt politicians, companies, and societies into understanding that the front line can come to them, Ilves says: “That’s my take on why I think the Baltics are ahead. Unfortunately not because we are so smart, but because we have this sense of necessity.” 

Nevertheless, she says her experience over the past few years suggests there’s cause for hope if, or when, danger breaks through a country’s borders. Before the full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s government wasn’t exactly popular among the domestic business and tech communities. “And yet, they came together and put their brains and resources behind [the war effort],” she says. “I have a feeling that our societies are sometimes better than we think.” 

Peter Guest is a journalist based in London. 

Sales Report 2024: Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday

Online retailers enjoyed strong sales during “Cyber Five,” the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday and the traditional kickoff to the holiday shopping season.

According to Adobe Analytics, U.S. consumers set a record by spending $41.1 billion online during Cyber Five 2024, marking an 8.2% increase from last year’s total of $38 billion. For all of November through Cyber Monday (Nov. 1 through Dec. 2), consumers spent $131.5 billion online, a notable 9% rise over 2023.

Adobe compiles its data by analyzing ecommerce transactions across more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories.

Cyber Monday sets a record

As in past years, Cyber Monday was the biggest online shopping day among the Cyber Five — and for the year. U.S. online sales for the day were $13.3 billion, up 7.3% compared 2023. During the peak hours, 8 p.m. to 10 p.m. EST, Cyber Monday shoppers spent $15.8 million online every minute, Adobe says.

Toys sold exceptionally well online during Cyber Monday. Adobe reports that toy sales on that day were 680% higher than on an average day in October 2024 — a comparison Adobe uses to measure the impact of the holiday season. Meanwhile, online sales of personal care products were 530% compared to an average October day. By the same measure, online jewelry sales were up 478%, appliances sales gained 464%, electronics gained 452%, and apparel sales grew 392%.

A significant development was artificial intelligence chatbots — ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, more — a still small but fast-growing marketing channel. Adobe found that traffic to retail websites from chatbots increased an astounding 1,950% on Cyber Monday from 2023.

In addition, Adobe says sales attributed to “affiliates and partners,” which include social media influencers, represented 20.3% of Cyber Monday sales.

Adobe found that consumers made a record $991.2 million in Cyber Monday purchases using buy-now pay-later, up 5.5% year over year. Most (75.2%) of those BNPL transactions took place on mobile devices.

Thanksgiving, Black Friday

While Cyber Monday was record-setting, Thanksgiving (Nov. 28) and Black Friday (Nov. 29) also grew from the prior year, Adobe says. Thanksgiving online sales reached $6.1 billion, up 8.8% compared with 2023’s Turkey Day. Online sales on Black Friday hit $10.8 billion, up 10.2% from the comparable day last year.

“Early discounts were strong enough that many consumers felt comfortable hitting the buy button earlier in Cyber Week, with Cyber Monday becoming ‘last call’ for shoppers to take advantage of big holiday deals,” Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights, said in a statement.

Adobe expects online sales for the 2024 holiday season (Nov. 1 through Dec. 31) to reach $240.8 billion, up 8.4% from $222.1 billion in 2023.

Meanwhile, the National Retail Federation’s annual survey confirmed shoppers were out in force during the Cyber Five.

NRF estimates a record 197 million Americans shopped (online and offline) in the 5 days, surpassing NRF’s initial expectations of 183.4 million. Online shoppers totaled 124.3 million, down from 134.2 million last year, while 126 million consumers shopped in-store, up from 121.4 million in 2023.

More mobile

Adobe predicts 2024 will be the “most mobile” year for online holiday sales, and so far, it has. From Nov. 1 through Dec. 2, Adobe says 53.1% of online purchases — totaling $69.8 — came from mobile devices (smartphones and tablets). This is 14.1% higher than in 2023 and reflects the growing mobile shopping trend.

On Cyber Monday, Adobe says 57% of online purchases — $7.6 billion — were on mobile, compared to 33% in 2019, five years ago.

Consumers appear confident

With about 20 shopping days left until Christmas, consumers’ moods could determine a mediocre versus a good year for retailers. Two days before Thanksgiving, The Conference Board, a business think tank, released a report indicating consumers are in a spending mood.

The group’s Consumer Confidence Index increased in November to its highest level since July 2023, marking the second consecutive month of increased optimism. The index grew to 111.7, up 2.1 points from 109.6 in October. A level above 100 generally indicates consumers are confident about the economy, which bodes well for the retail industry.

Entrepreneur on Business and Divorce

Brenden Marquardt knows the effect of entrepreneurship on a marriage. He’s the co-owner of Lori Beds, a direct-to-consumer seller of Murphy beds, those that fold into a wall, and the now-divorced father of two children in grade school.

Unlike most divorced entrepreneurs, Marquardt chooses to publicly share his experience in the hopes of helping others.

He did that recently in our conversation, his second on the podcast. Our entire audio is embedded below. The transcript is edited for length and clarity.

Eric Bandholz: Give us a rundown of who you are.

Brenden Marquardt: I co-own Lori Beds with my brother, Kyle. We sell Murphy beds, which fold up against the wall, allowing alternative uses for the space. It’s a niche product, but it’s gaining popularity.

I’ve been running this business for almost 10 years. We bought the company from the woman who designed the first model. We kept her name, Lori. She’s no longer involved with the business.

Bandholz: You’ve had a rough year, personally.

Marquardt: I moved from Austin, where I had been living for two years, to Brownsville, Texas, where my wife is from. We decided to end our marriage about a year and a half ago. That separation led me to pull away from friends and people close to me, partly out of embarrassment and a feeling of failure.

I wanted to get my life back together before presenting myself publicly again, but I now realize I would’ve benefited from opening up to my friends earlier. The support I received when I opened up made a big difference. Isolation, though sometimes necessary, is not always the healthiest approach.

I’ve realized the importance of maintaining friendships, especially with other men. While focusing on family is important, it’s easy to lose touch with friends. Male camaraderie and support systems are vital, even weekly. I neglected those friendships while prioritizing family, which left a gap in my life.

Bandholz: Did the business affect your marriage?

Marquardt: It likely played a role, especially during the six years I worked at my corporate job while growing Lori Beds. Once I left that job and focused on the business, I had more time, freedom, and flexibility, which benefited my family.

My brother Kyle and I are equal partners in the business. In Texas, community property laws apply, which means assets acquired during the marriage, including our business, are split equally between my ex-wife and me.

She worked in customer service early on, but she’s not involved in the operations now. We’ve agreed that I’ll keep the business, and she’ll receive other assets, such as savings and real estate. This arrangement allows me to focus on growing the business, which is ultimately in the best interest of our kids. If both of us were involved in running the business, things would’ve been much more complicated, affecting my brother and the company’s daily operations.

Bandholz: Was the process amicable?

Marquardt: The problem often stems from attorneys. Lawyers sometimes escalate things unnecessarily, making the process more contentious. Ideally, both parties should reach an agreement and then have lawyers draft it. Unfortunately, when lawyers get too involved, they can create friction, leading you to dig in and fight back, even when you didn’t intend to.

Attorneys get paid by the hour, so they’re incentivized to prolong the process. Controlling the situation is crucial.

Bandholz: Can a couple share an attorney during a divorce?

Marquardt: It’s possible, especially if both parties have agreed on the terms. One attorney can draft the legal paperwork, but it’s still wise for each side to have his or her own lawyer review everything. In most cases, you’re not splitting everything 50/50, so having individual representation is important to ensure fairness. I encouraged my ex-wife to get her attorney because I didn’t want her to feel taken advantage of.

Attorney fees are expensive. Each of us paid several hundred dollars per hour for legal services. Between us, we’ve probably spent $40,000 on attorney fees, business valuations, and other expenses. While we have enough assets to cover those fees, they still add up. That money could’ve gone toward our kids or other family needs.

One helpful strategy is scheduling weekly meetings with your co-parent to discuss financials and upcoming events. It keeps communication open and prevents last-minute confrontations. Maintaining a friendly relationship is challenging, but you can only control your own actions.

My goal has been to never speak poorly of my ex-wife in front of our kids and to focus on building her up in their eyes. Kids need both parents. While our marriage didn’t last, the love for our kids remains, and there’s no need for bitterness.

Bandholz: How can people reach out to you?

Marquardt: I’m on LinkedIn. Visit LoriBeds.com to learn more about the business.

Charts: U.S. Retail Ecommerce Sales Q3 2024

Recent data from the U.S. Department of Commerce reveals that ecommerce continues to outpace traditional retail growth. In the third quarter of 2024, total domestic retail sales reached $1.85 trillion, a modest 1.3% increase from Q2. Online shopping showed stronger momentum, with ecommerce sales climbing to $300.1 billion, a more robust growth rate of 2.6% over the prior quarter.

According to the DoC, ecommerce sales are for “goods and services where the buyer places an order (or the price and terms of the sale are negotiated) over an Internet, mobile device, extranet, electronic data interchange network, electronic mail, or other comparable online system. Payment may or may not be made online.”

Ecommerce accounted for 16.2% of total U.S. retail sales in Q3 2024, up slightly from 16.0% in the prior quarter.

The DoC reports U.S. ecommerce retail sales in Q3 2024 grew by 7.4% compared to Q3 2023, while total quarterly retail sales experienced a 2.1% annual rise over the same period last year.

Data Suggest Solid 2024 Holiday Sales

Based on expert projections and the latest economic data, the 2024 holiday shopping season has the potential to be a good one for online retailers.

The National Retail Federation says a record 183.4 million Americans plan to shop in physical stores and online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year. That would be up from the previous record of 182 million in 2023.

For the entire holiday season, NRF projects that the internet will again be the top shopping destination for holiday shoppers, with 57% of U.S. consumers planning to do at least some of their holiday shopping online. Department and grocery stores will tie for second at 46% each, and discount stores will be in third place at 45%.

The NRF expects total (online and offline) 2024 U.S. holiday sales in November and December to increase up to 2.6% over 2023, reaching $989.9 billion. That would amount to a record average spend of $902 per person for gifts, food, decorations, and other seasonal items. Online holiday sales in 2024 will reach $300.0 billion, up 8.3% from the prior year, according to the NRF.

‘The most mobile’ year for ecommerce

Adobe expects U.S. online holiday sales to hit a record of $240.8 billion (PDF) in November and December, up 8.4% from 2023. Adobe says that includes a projected record of $128.1 billion in mobile device purchases, giving mobile a 53.2% share of online holiday spending. That would make 2024’s holiday season “the most mobile of all time,” Adobe says.

Adobe expects online sales for Cyber Week (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) to hit $40.6 billion, with Cyber Monday being the biggest shopping day of the season at $13.2 billion in online sales.

Another indication of the strength of online shopping comes from the annual holiday spending survey of The Conference Board, a think tank. The survey found that 43% of U.S. consumers expect to purchase at least half of their gifts online in 2024, while just 8% expect to buy gifts entirely in physical stores.

The Conference Board also found that consumers plan to spend an average of $1,063 on holiday-related purchases in 2024, up 7.9% from 2023. That includes an average of $677 spent on gifts, up 3.4% from last year.

The think tank’s survey found that 52% of U.S. shoppers plan to spend the same amount on gifts in 2024 as in 2023, while 23% plan to spend more and 25% less than last year.

A $1 trillion year?

The data and consulting firm Forrester Research expects total (online and offline) U.S. holiday retail sales to hit a cool $1 trillion this year, a 3.7% increase from last year. Forrester says online sales will grow 10.1% year-over-year, reaching $257 billion, or nearly 26% of total U.S. holiday retail sales, up from 24.2% in 2023.

In a report, Forrester says, “Online retail sales for the holiday period will grow faster than in the previous two years but slower than the average of pre-pandemic years when they mostly grew by double digits.”

“2024’s holiday season for e-commerce looks promising but not exceptional,” Forrester analyst Jitender Miglani, based in New Delhi, India, told Practical Ecommerce in an email. “Sales are expected to grow faster than the past two years but slower than the double-digit growth seen pre-pandemic.”

Miglani expects holiday sales growth “to be largely volume-driven rather than inflation-driven.” That’s because “goods inflation is nearly zero, while headline inflation remains slightly above 2%, primarily due to higher inflation in services,” he added.

Additional indicators

Other surveys, projections, and economic data point to a cheerful, if not exuberant, holiday season for retailers.

  • The consulting firm Bain & Co. expects online retail sales growth of 9.5% in 2024. That’s down significantly from a 13.1% 10-year average. But Bain expects physical store sales to grow at a slim 0.5%, leading to a total holiday sales growth of 3%, the smallest year-over-year gain since 2018 and more than two points lower than the 10-year average of 5.2%, Bain says.
  • The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that average hourly earnings in the U.S. grew faster than inflation from September to October and year over year. The September-to-October increase was 0.1%. The agency says average hourly earnings after inflation rose 1.4%, seasonally adjusted, from October 2023 to October 2024.
  • The BLS also reports that the economy kept generating net jobs in October, albeit slowly after hurricanes Helene and Milton. Total nonfarm payroll employment grew by 12,000, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%, BLS reported. Employment in health care and government continued to increase, while temporary help services lost jobs and manufacturing employment declined due to strike activity.
  • The payroll processing firm ADP presented a much rosier employment picture than the BLS. The firm, which uses a different methodology than the government, says private employers added 233,000 jobs in October, the most since July 2023.
From Porsche to Purpose: A CMO’s Journey

Kevin Dahlstrom once paid cash for a $211,000 Porsche. He was in his 30s, living in Texas, holding down high-powered corporate marketing jobs, such as with Mr. Cooper, a mortgage services company, and Elevate, a credit solutions firm.

He says the Porsche created more stress than joy and started his practice of minimalism — letting go of material things. So in his 40s he chucked it all, moved his family to Colorado, and focused on “a more meaningful and balanced life.”

He and I recently spoke. He shared his evolution — from money-seeking to happiness, purpose, rock climbing, and more. Our entire audio is embedded below. The transcript is edited for length and clarity.

Eric Bandholz: Give us your overview.

Kevin Dahlstrom: I live in Boulder, Colorado, with my wife and two teenage daughters. I’m 53, and my motto is, “I learned everything the hard way, so you don’t have to.” My career has involved starting four companies and working at the C-level in larger companies, typically as a chief marketing officer. At the peak of my career in my mid-40s, I walked away from the corporate world, moved to Boulder, and rebooted my life. I focused on finding happiness through activities like rock climbing and creating a more meaningful and balanced life.

When I was younger, I bought into society’s definition of success — money and status. I climbed the corporate ladder but realized I wasn’t happy. I wasn’t deliberate in shaping my life around what mattered to me. In my mid-40s, I redefined success on my own terms and built my life around that vision. Today, I have control over my time, balancing my passion for work and rock climbing while being a dedicated husband and father.

Bandholz: Could you have achieved this life without the money-and-status stage?

Dahlstrom: There are seasons in life. There’s a season for grinding and one for reaping the rewards. I’m in the latter now. What’s essential is grinding with purpose. I made the mistake of pursuing goals that didn’t matter much to me. I can tell you from experience that once you hit a certain level of wealth, adding more doesn’t improve your life — it can even worsen it.

It’s all about setting boundaries. I started early in my 30s when I realized I was on a hamster wheel, running faster but getting nowhere. Boundaries ensured I remained present for my family and maintained my health. Many think you grind for years, then suddenly retire. I see it as a sliding scale where you gradually gain control over your time and choices. Even though I rebooted in my 40s, this process had been underway for years.

Bandholz: Were there events that triggered your reassessment?

Dahlstrom: I have an exercise called the “ideal end state.” You list what your perfect life looks like — not achievements, but how you want to spend your time and who you want to be with. Most people find that what they want costs less than they thought. I did this exercise, and it led to my reboot.

A pivotal moment was when I bought a Porsche 911, a childhood dream. I paid $211,000 in cash, but it brought me more stress than joy. I realized I wasn’t that kid anymore, and the Porsche didn’t define me. That experience started my practice of minimalism, helping me let go of material things that didn’t align with who I had become.

Bandholz: You’re into rock climbing. Is your family involved?

Dahlstrom: One of my daughters used to climb but lost interest. My wife is into tennis; it’s healthy for everyone to have their own thing. I believe in the concept of “three lives”: your life as a family, your life as a couple, and your individual life. All three need to be maintained.

Many young parents give up one or two of those lives, which creates a toxic environment. Early in my marriage, climbing caused conflict, but we’ve come to appreciate the importance of maintaining separate interests for a sustainable relationship.

We’ve been married 27 years, and anyone who says it’s easy is lying. A healthy marriage, like any long-term relationship, is hard work. The best advice I ever got was, “A great marriage is a choice you make every day.” It’s about mindset — believing in your partner.

Weekly check-ins are crucial. My wife and I sit down for 30 minutes without distractions and discuss how things are going. This intentional time keeps the relationship strong, even in tough times. As soon-to-be empty nesters, we’re excited for the next phase of life and the freedom it brings.

Bandholz: You’ve said you’re focused on the long term. How does that play into your success?

Dahlstrom: I’m only interested in long games. Short games don’t appeal to me. Long games involve ups, downs, suffering, and discipline. I thrive in that. My ability to endure, to power through tough times, is my secret weapon. Long games are about mastery — you might not see immediate results, but over time, the benefits compound. That’s how I’ve approached climbing and business. Stick with something long enough, and you’ll eventually see success.

Bandholz: You’ve talked about manifesting the life you want. What is that?

Dahlstrom: Manifesting is about setting your mind on something and letting that intention guide your actions. Your behavior follows your thoughts. It’s not just about setting goals — it’s about aligning your energy and actions to create the life you want.

Bandholz: Where can people connect with you?

Dahlstrom: They can sign up for my newsletter. I’m on X and LinkedIn.

Inside Clear’s ambitions to manage your identity beyond the airport

If you’ve ever been through a large US airport, you’re probably at least vaguely aware of Clear. Maybe your interest (or irritation) has been piqued by the pods before the security checkpoints, the attendants in navy blue vests who usher clients to the front of the security line (perhaps just ahead of you), and the sometimes pushy sales pitches to sign up and skip ahead yourself. After all, is there anything people dislike more than waiting in line?

Its position in airports has made Clear Secure, with its roughly $3.75 billion market capitalization, the most visible biometric identity company in the United States. Over the past two decades, Clear has put more than 100 lanes in 58 airports across the US, and in the past decade it has entered 17 sports arenas and stadiums, from San Jose to Denver to Atlanta. Now you can also use its identity verification platform to rent tools at Home Depot, put your profile in front of recruiters on LinkedIn, and, as of this month, verify your identity as a rider on Uber.

And soon enough, if Clear has its way, it may also be in your favorite retailer, bank, and even doctor’s office—or anywhere else that you currently have to pull out a wallet (or, of course, wait in line). The company that has helped millions of vetted members skip airport security lines is now working to expand its “frictionless,” “face-first” line-cutting service from the airport to just about everywhere, online and off, by promising to verify that you are who you say you are and you are where you are supposed to be. In doing so, CEO Caryn Seidman Becker told investors in an earnings call earlier this year, it has designs on being no less than the “identity layer of the internet,” as well as the “universal identity platform” of the physical world.

All you have to do is show up—and show your face. 

This is enabled by biometric technology, but Clear is far more than just a biometrics company. As Seidman Becker has told investors, “biometrics aren’t the product … they are a feature.” Or, as she put it in a 2022 podcast interview, Clear is ultimately a platform company “no different than Amazon or Apple”—with dreams, she added, “of making experiences safer and easier, of giving people back their time, of giving people control, of using technology for … frictionless experiences.” (Clear did not make Seidman Becker available for an interview.)

While the company has been building toward this sweeping vision for years, it now seems the time has finally come. A confluence of factors is currently accelerating the adoption of—even necessity for—identity verification technologies: increasingly sophisticated fraud, supercharged by artificial intelligence that is making it harder to distinguish who or what is real; data breaches that seem to occur on a near daily basis; consumers who are more concerned about data privacy and security; and the lingering effects of the pandemic’s push toward “contactless” experiences. 

All of this is creating a new urgency around ways to verify information, especially our identities—and, in turn, generating a massive opportunity for Clear. For years, Seidman Becker has been predicting that biometrics will go mainstream. 

But now that biometrics have, arguably, gone mainstream, what—and who—bears the cost? Because convenience, even if chosen by only some of us, leaves all of us wrestling with the effects. Some critics warn that not everyone will benefit from a world where identity is routed through Clear—maybe because it’s too expensive, and maybe because biometric technologies are often less effective at identifying people of color, people with disabilities, or those whose gender identity may not match what official documents say.

What’s more, says Kaliya Young, an identity expert who has advised the US government, having a single private company “disintermediating” our biometric data—especially facial data—is the wrong “architecture” to manage identity. “It seems they are trying to create a system like login with Google, but for everything in real life,” Young warns. While the single sign-on option that Google (or Facebook or Apple) provides for websites and apps may make life easy, it also poses greater security and privacy risks by putting both our personal data and the keys to it in the hands of a single profit-driven entity: “We’re basically selling our identity soul to a private company, who’s then going to be the gatekeeper … everywhere one goes.” 

Though Clear remains far less well known than Google, more than 27 million people have already helped it become that very gatekeeper—and “one of the largest private repositories of identities on the planet,” as Nicholas Peddy, Clear’s chief technology officer, put it in an interview with MIT Technology Review this summer. 

With Clear well on the way to realizing its plan for a frictionless future, it’s time to try to understand both how we got here and what we have (been) signed up for.

A new frontier in identity management

Imagine this: On a Friday morning in the near future, you are rushing to get through your to-do list before a weekend trip to New York. 

In the morning, you apply for a new job on LinkedIn. During lunch, assured that recruiters are seeing your professional profile because it’s been verified by Clear, you pop out to Home Depot, confirm your identity with a selfie, and rent a power drill for a quick bathroom repair. Then, in the midafternoon, you drive to your doctor’s office; having already verified your identity—prompted by a text message sent a few days earlier—you confirm your arrival with a selfie at a Clear kiosk. Before you go to bed, you plan your morning trip to the airport and set an alarm—but not too early, because you know that with Clear, you can quickly drop your bags and breeze through security.

Once you’re in New York, you head to Barclays Center, where you’ll be seeing your favorite singer; you skip the long queue out front to hop in the fast-track Clear line. It’s late when the show is over, so you grab an Uber home and barely need to wait for a driver, who feels more comfortable thanks to your verified rider profile. 

At no point did you pull out your driver’s license or fill out repetitive paperwork. All that was already on file. Everything was easy; everything was frictionless

More than 27 million people have already helped Clear become “one of the largest private repositories of identities on the planet.”

This, at least, is the world that Clear is actively building toward. 

Part of Clear’s power, Seidman Becker often says, is that it can wholly replace our wallets: our credit cards, driver’s licenses, health insurance cards, perhaps even building key fobs. But you can’t just suddenly be all the cards you carry. For Clear to link your digital identity to your real-world self, you must first give up a bit of personal data—specifically, your biometric data. 

Biometrics refers to the unique physical and behavioral characteristics—faces, fingerprints, irises, voices, and gaits, among others—that identify each of us as individuals. For better or worse, they typically remain stable during our lifetimes. 

Relying on biometrics for identification can be convenient, since people are apt to misplace a wallet or forget the answer to a security question. But on the other hand, if someone manages to compromise a database of biometric information, that convenience can become dangerous: We cannot easily change our face or fingerprint to secure our data again, the way we could change a compromised password. 

On a practical level, there are generally two ways that biometrics are used to identify individuals. The first, generally referred to “one-to-many” or “one-to-n” matching, compares one person’s biometric identifier with a database full of them. This is sometimes associated with a stereotypical idea of dystopian surveillance in which real-time facial recognition from live video could allow authorities to identify anyone walking down the street. The other, “one-to-one” matching, is the basis for Clear; it compares a biometric identifier (like the face of a live person standing before an airport agent) with a previously recorded biometric template (such as a passport photo) to verify that they match. This is usually done with the individual’s knowledge and consent, and it arguably poses a lower privacy risk. Often, one-to-one matching includes a layer of document verification, like checking that your passport is legitimate and matches a photograph you used to register with the system.

The US Congress urgently saw the need for better identity management following the September 11 terrorist attacks; 18 of the 19 hijackers used fake identity documents to board their flights. In the aftermath, the newly created Transportation Security Administration (TSA) implemented security processes that slowed down air travel significantly. Part of the problem was that “everybody was just treated the same at airports,” recalls the serial media entrepreneur Steven Brill—including, famously, former vice president Al Gore. “It sounded awfully democratic … but in terms of basic risk management and allocation of resources, it just didn’t make any sense.” 

Congress agreed, authorizing the TSA to create a program that would allow people who passed background checks to be recognized as trusted travelers and skip some of the scrutiny at the airport. 

A computer screen showing a biometric iris scan, part of Clear's security program in airports.
In 2007, San Francisco’s then mayor, Gavin Newsom, had his irises scanned by Clear at San Francisco International Airport.
DAVID PAUL MORRIS/GETTY

In 2003, Brill teamed up with Ajay Amlani, a technology entrepreneur and former adviser to the Department of Homeland Security, and founded a company called Verified Identity Pass (VIP) to provide biometric identity verification in the TSA’s new program. “The vision,” says Amlani, “was a unified fast lane—similar to a toll lane.”

It appeared to be a win-win solution. The TSA had a private-sector partner for its registered-traveler program; VIP had a revenue stream from user fees; airports got a cut of the fees in exchange for leasing VIP space; and initial members—typically frequent business travelers—were happy to cut down on airport wait times. 

By 2005, VIP had launched in its first airport, Orlando International in Florida. Members—initially paying $80—received “Clear cards” that contained a cryptographic representation of their fingerprint, iris scans, and a photo of their face taken at enrollment. They could use those cards at the airport to be escorted to the front of the security lines.

The defense contracting giant Lockheed Martin, which already provided biometric capabilities to the US Department of Defense and the FBI, was responsible for deploying and providing technology for VIP’s system, with additional technical expertise from Oracle and others. This left VIP to “focus on marketing, pricing, branding, customer service, and consumer privacy policies,” as the president of Lockheed Transportation and Security Solutions, Don Antonucci, said at the time. 

By 2009, nearly 200,000 people had joined. The company had received $116 million in investments and signed contracts with about 20 airports. It all seemed so promising—if VIP had not already inadvertently revealed the risks inherent in a system built on sensitive personal data.

A lost laptop and a big opportunity

From the beginning, there were concerns about the implications of VIP’s Clear card for privacy, civil liberty, and equity, as well as questions about its effectiveness at actually stopping future terrorist attacks. Advocacy groups like the Electronic Privacy Information Center (EPIC) warned that the biometrics-based system would result in a surveillance infrastructure built on sensitive personal information, but data from the Pew Research Center shows that a majority of the public at the time felt that it was generally necessary to sacrifice some civil liberties in the name of safety.

Then a security lapse sent the whole operation crumbling. 

In the summer of 2008, VIP reported that an unencrypted company laptop containing addresses, birthdays, and driver’s license and passport numbers of 33,000 applicants had gone missing from an office at San Francisco International Airport (SFO)—even though TSA’s security protocol required it to encrypt all laptops holding personal data. 

a hand reaches into drawers containing sensitive personal data from behind the user's profile image

NEIL WEBB

The laptop was found about two weeks later and the company said no data was compromised. But it was still a mess for VIP. Months later, investors pushed Brill out, and associated costs led the company to declare bankruptcy and close the following year. 

Disgruntled users filed a class action lawsuit against VIP to recoup membership fees and “punitive damages.” Some users were upset they had recently renewed their subscriptions, and others worried about what would happen to their personal information. A judge temporarily prevented the company from selling user data, but the decision didn’t hold. 

Seidman Becker and her longtime business partner Ken Cornick, both hedge fund managers, saw an opportunity. In 2010, they bought VIP—and its user data—in a bankruptcy sale for just under $6 million and registered a new company called Alclear. “I was a big believer in biometrics,” Seidman Becker told the tech journalists Kara Swisher and Lauren Goode in 2017. “I wanted to build something that made the world a better place, and Clear was that platform.” 

Initially, the new Clear followed closely in the footsteps of its predecessor: Lockheed Martin transferred the members’ information to the new company, which had acquired VIP’s hardware and continued to use Clear cards to hold members’ biometrics.

After the relaunch, Clear also started building partnerships with other companies in the travel industry—including American Express, United Airlines, Alaska Airlines, Delta Airlines, and Hertz Rental Cars—to bundle its service for free or at a discount. (Clear declined to specify how many of its users have such discounts, but in earnings calls the company has stressed its efforts to reduce the number of members paying reduced rates.)

By 2014, improvements in internet latency and biometric processing speeds allowed Clear to eliminate the cards and migrate to a server-based system—without compromising data security, the company says. Clear emphasizes that it meets industry standards for keeping data secure, with methods including encryption, firewalls, and regular penetration testing by both internal and external teams. The company says it also maintains “locked boxes” around data relating to air travelers. 

Still, the reality is that every database of this kind is ultimately a target, and “almost every day there’s a massive breach or hack,” says Chris Gilliard, a privacy and surveillance researcher who was recently named co-director of the Critical Internet Studies Institute. Over the years, even apparently well-protected biometric information has been compromised. Last year, for instance, a data breach at the genetic testing company 23andMe exposed sensitive information—including geographic locations, birth years, family trees, and user-uploaded photos—from nearly 7 million customers. 

This is what Young, who helped facilitate the creation of the open-source identity management standards Open ID Connect and OAuth, means when she says that Clear has the wrong “architecture” for managing digital identity; it’s too much of a risk to keep our digital identities in a central database, cryptographically protected or not. She and many other identity and privacy experts believe that the most privacy-protecting way to manage digital identity is to “use credentials, like a mobile driver’s license, stored on people’s devices in digital wallets,“ she says. “These digital credentials can have biometrics, but the biometrics in a central database are not being pinged for day to day use.”

But it’s not just data that’s potentially vulnerable. In 2022 and 2023, Clear faced three high-profile security incidents in airports, including one in which a passenger successfully got through the company’s checks using a boarding pass found in the trash. In another, a traveler in Alabama used someone else’s ID to register for Clear and, later, to successfully pass initial security checks; he was discovered only when he tried to bring ammunition through a subsequent checkpoint. 

This spurred an investigation by the TSA, which turned up more alarming information: Nearly 50,000 photos used by Clear to enroll customers were flagged as “non-matches” by the company’s facial recognition software. Some photos didn’t even contain full faces, according to Bloomberg. (In a press release after the incident, the company refuted the reporting, describing it as “a single human error—having nothing to do with our technology” and stating that “the images in question were not relied upon during the secure, multi-layered enrollment process.”) 

“How do you get to be the one?”

When I spoke to Brill this spring, he told me he’d always envisioned that Clear would expand far beyond the airport. “The idea I had was that once you had a trusted identity, you would potentially be able to use it for a lot of different things,” he said, but “the trick is to get something that is universally accepted. And that’s the battle that Clear and anybody else has to fight, which is: How do you get to be the one?”

Goode Intelligence, a market research firm that focuses on the booming identity space, estimates that by 2029, there will be 1.5 billion digital identity wallets around the world—with use for travel leading the way and generating an estimated $4.6 billion in revenue. Clear is just one player, and certainly not the biggest. ID.me, for instance, provides similar face-based identity verification and has over 130 million users, dwarfing Clear’s roughly 27 million. It’s also already in use by numerous US federal and state agencies, including the IRS. 

The reality is that every database of this kind is ultimately a target, and “almost every day there’s a massive breach or hack.”

But as Goode Intelligence CEO Alan Goode tells me, Clear’s early-mover advantage, particularly in the US, “puts it in a good space within North America … [to] be more pervasive”—or to become what Brill called “the one” that is most closely stitched into people’s daily lives. 

Clear began growing beyond travel in 2015, when it started offering biometric fast-pass access to what was then AT&T Park in San Francisco. Stadiums across California, Colorado, and Washington, and in major cities in other states, soon followed. Fans can simply download the free Clear app and scan the QR code to bypass normal lines in favor of designated Clear lanes. For a time, Clear also promoted its biometric payment systems at some venues, including two in Seattle, which could include built-in age verification. It even partnered with Budweiser for a “Bud Now” machine that used your fingerprint to verify your identity, age, and payment. (These payment programs, which a Clear representative called “pilots” in an email, have since ended; representatives for the Seattle Mariners and Seahawks did not respond to multiple requests for comment on why.) Clear’s programs for expedited event access have been popular enough to drive greater user growth than its paid airport service, according to numbers provided by the company. 

Then came the pandemic, hitting Clear (and the entire travel industry) hard. But the crisis for Clear’s primary business actually accelerated its move into new spaces with “Health Pass,” which allowed organizations to confirm the health status of employees, residents, students, and visitors who sought access to a physical space. Users could upload vaccination cards to the Health Pass section in the Clear mobile app; the program was adopted by nearly 70 partners in 110 unique locations, including NFL stadiums, the Mariners’ T-Mobile Park, and the 9/11 Memorial Museum. 

Demand for vaccine verification eventually slowed, and Health Pass shut down in March 2024. But as Jason Sherwin, Clear’s senior director of health-care business development, said in a podcast interview earlier this year, it was the company’s “first foray into health care”—the business line that currently represents its “primary focus across everything we’re doing outside of the airport.” Today, Clear kiosks for patient sign-ins are being piloted at Georgia’s Wellstar Health Systems, in conjunction with one of the largest providers of electronic health records in the United States: Epic (which is unrelated to the privacy nonprofit). 

What’s more, Health Pass enabled Clear to expand at a time when the survival of travel-focused businesses wasn’t guaranteed. In November 2020, Clear had roughly 5 million members; today, that number has grown fivefold. The company went public in 2021 and has experienced double-digit revenue growth annually. 

These doctor’s office sign-ins, in which the system verifies patient identity via a selfie, rely on what’s called Clear Verified, a platform the company has rolled out over the past several years that allows partners (health-care systems, as well as brick-and-mortar retailers, hotels, and online platforms) to integrate Clear’s identity checks into their own user-verification processes. It again seems like a win-win situation: Clear gets more users and a fee from companies using the platform, while companies confirm customers’ identity and information, and customers, in theory, get that valuable frictionless experience. One high-profile partnership, with LinkedIn, was announced last year: “We know authenticity matters and we want the people, companies and jobs you engage with everyday to be real and trusted,” Oscar Rodriguez, LinkedIn’s head of trust and privacy, said in a press release. 

All this comes together to create the foundation for what is Clear’s biggest advantage today: its network. The company’s executives often speak about its “embedded” users across various services and platforms, as well as its “ecosystem,” meaning the venues where it is used. As Peddy explains, the value proposition for Clear today is not necessarily any particular technology or biometric algorithm, but how it all comes together—and can work universally. Clear would be “wherever our consumers need us to be,” he says—it would “sort of just be this ubiquitous thing that everybody has.”

Seidman-Becker with the gavel raised above her head next to the opening bell on the floor of the stock exchange with NYSE Group president Stacey Cunningham clapping on the right side of the frame
Clear CEO Caryn Seidman Becker (left) rings the bell at the New York Stock Exchange in 2021.
NYSE VIA TWITTER

A prospectus to investors from the company’s IPO makes the pitch simple: “We believe Clear enables our partners to capture not just a greater share of their customers’ wallet, but a greater share of their overall lives.” 

The more Clear is able to reach into customers’ lives, the more valuable customer data it can collect. All user interactions and experiences can be tracked, the company’s privacy policy explains. While the policy states that Clear will not sell data and will never share biometric or health information without “express consent,” it also lays out the non-health and non-biometric data that it collects and can use for consumer research and marketing. This includes members’ demographic details, a record of every use of Clear’s various products, and even digital images and videos of the user. Documents obtained by OneZero offer some further detail into what Clear has at least considered doing with customer data: David Gershgorn wrote about a 2015 presentation to representatives from Los Angeles International Airport, titled “Identity Dashboard—Valuable Marketing Data,” which “showed off” what the company had collected, including the number of sports games users had attended and with whom, which credit cards they had, their favorite airlines and top destinations, and how often they flew first class or economy. 

Clear representatives emphasized to MIT Technology Review that the company “does not share or sell information without consent,” though they “had nothing to add” in response to a question about whether Clear can or does aggregate data to derive its own marketing insights, a business model popularized by Facebook. “At Clear, privacy and security are job one,” spokesperson Ricardo Quinto wrote in an email. “We are opt-in. We never sell or share our members’ information and utilize a multilayered, best-in-class infosec system that meets the highest standards and compliance requirements.” 

Nevertheless, this influx of customer data is not just good for business; it’s risky for customers. It creates “another attack surface,” Gilliard warns. “This makes us less safe, not more, as a consistent identifier across your entire public and private life is the dream of every hacker, bad actor, and authoritarian.”

A face-based future for some

Today, Clear is in the middle of another major change: replacing its use of iris scans and fingerprints with facial verification in airports—part of “a TSA-required upgrade in identity verification,” a TSA spokesperson wrote in an email to MIT Technology Review

For a long time, facial recognition technology “for the highest security purposes” was “not ready for prime time,” Seidman Becker told Swisher and Goode back in 2017. It wasn’t operating with “five nines,” she added—that is, “99.999% from a matching and an accuracy perspective.” But today, facial recognition has “significantly improved” and the company has invested “in enhancing image quality through improved capture, focus, and illumination,” according to Quinto.

 Clear says switching to facial images in airports will also further decrease friction, enabling travelers to verify their identity so effortlessly it’s “almost like you don’t really break stride,” Peddy says. “You walk up, you scan your face. You walk straight to the TSA.” 

The move is part of a broader shift toward facial recognition technology in US travel, bringing the country in line with practices at many international airports. The TSA began expanding facial identification from a few pilot programs this year, while airlines including Delta and United are also introducing face-based boarding, baggage drops, and even lounge access. And the International Air Transport Association, a trade group for the airline industry, is rolling out a “contactless travel” process that will allow passengers to check in, drop off their bags, and board their flights—all without showing either passports or tickets, just their faces. 

a crowd of people with their faces obscured by a bright glow

NEIL WEBB

Privacy experts worry that relying on faces for identity verification is even riskier than other biometric methods. After all, “it’s a lot easier to scan people’s faces passively than it is to scan irises or take fingerprints,” Senator Jeff Merkley of Oregon, an outspoken critic of government surveillance and of the TSA’s plans to employ facial verification at airports, said in an email. The point is that once a database of faces is built, it is potentially far more useful for surveillance purposes than, say, fingerprints. “Everyone who values privacy, freedom, and civil rights should be concerned about the increasing, unchecked use of facial recognition technology by corporations and the federal government,” Merkley wrote.

Even if Clear is not in the business of surveillance today, it could, theoretically, pivot or go bankrupt and (again) sell off its parts, including user data. Jeramie Scott, senior counsel and director of the Project on Surveillance Oversight at EPIC, says that ultimately, the “lack of federal [privacy] regulation” means that we’re just taking the promises of companies like Clear at face value: “Whatever they say about how they implement facial recognition today does not mean that that’s how they’ll be implementing facial recognition tomorrow.” 

Making this particular scenario potentially more concerning is that the images stored by this private company are “generally going to be much higher quality” than those collected by scraping the internet—which Albert Fox Cahn, the executive director of the Surveillance Technology Oversight Project (STOP), says would make its data far more useful for surveillance than that held by more controversial facial recognition companies like Clearview AI. 

Even a far less pessimistic read of Clear’s data collection reveals the challenges of using facial identification systems, which—as a 2019 report from the National Institute for Standards and Technology revealed—have been shown to work less effectively in certain populations, particularly people of African and East Asian descent, women, and elderly and very young people. NIST has also not tested identification accuracy for individuals who are transgender, but Gilliard says he expects the algorithms would fall short. 

More recent testing shows that some algorithms have improved, NIST spokesperson Chad Boutin tells MIT Technology Review—though accuracy is still short of the “five nines” that Seidman Becker once said Clear was aiming for. (Quinto, the Clear representative, maintains that Clear’s recent upgrades, combined with the fact that the company’s testing involves “comparing member photos to smaller galleries, rather than the millions used in NIST scenarios,” means its technology “remains accurate and suitable for secure environments like airports.”)

Even a very small error rate “in a system that is deployed hundreds of thousands of times a day” could still leave “a lot of people” at risk of misidentification, explains Hannah Quay-de La Vallee, a technologist at the Center for Democracy & Technology, a nonprofit based in Washington, DC. All this could make Clear’s services inaccessible to some—even if they can afford it, which is less likely given the recent increase in the subscription fee for travelers to $199 a year.

The free Clear Verified Platform is already giving rise to access problems in at least one partnership, with LinkedIn. The professional networking site encourages users to verify their identities either with an employer email address or with Clear, which marketing materials say will yield more engagement. But some LinkedIn users have expressed concerns, claiming that even after uploading a selfie, they were unable to verify their identities with Clear if they were subscribed to a smaller phone company or if they had simply not had their phone number for enough time. As one Reddit user emphasized, “Getting verified is a huge deal when getting a job.” LinkedIn said it does not enable recruiters to filter, rank, or sort by whether a candidate has a verification badge, but also said that verified information does “help people make more informed decisions as they build their network or apply for a job.” Clear only said it “works with our partners to provide them with the level of identity assurance that they require for their customers” and referred us back to LinkedIn. 

An opt-in future that may not really be optional 

Maybe what’s worse than waiting in line, or even being cut in front of, is finding yourself stuck in what turns out to be the wrong line—perhaps one that you never want to be in. 

That may be how it feels if you don’t use Clear and similar biometric technologies. “When I look at companies stuffing these technologies into vending machines, fast-food restaurants, schools, hospitals, and stadiums, what I see is resignation rather than acceptance—people often don’t have a choice,” says Gilliard, the privacy and surveillance scholar. “The life cycle of these things is that … even when it is ‘optional,’ oftentimes it is difficult to opt out.”

And while the stakes may seem relatively low—Clear is, after all, a voluntary membership program—they will likely grow as the system is deployed more widely. As Seidman Becker said on Clear’s latest earnings call in early November, “The lines between physical and digital interactions continue to blur. A verified identity isn’t just a check mark. It’s the foundation for everything we do in a high-stakes digital world.” Consider a job ad posted by Clear earlier this year, seeking to hire a vice president for business development; it noted that the company has its eye on a number of additional sectors, including financial services, e-commerce, P2P networking, “online trust,” gaming, government, and more. 

“Increasingly, companies and the government are making the submission of your biometrics a barrier to participation in society,” Gilliard says. 

This will be particularly true at the airport, with the increasing ubiquity of facial recognition across all security checks and boarding processes, and where time-crunched travelers could be particularly vulnerable to Clear’s sales pitch. Airports have even privately expressed concerns about these scenarios to Clear. Correspondence from early 2022 between the company and staff at SFO, released in response to a public records request, reveals that the airport “received a number of complaints” about Clear staff “improperly and deceitfully soliciting approaching passengers in the security checkpoint lanes outside of its premises,” with an airport employee calling it “completely unacceptable” and “aggressive and deceptive behavior.” 

Of course, this isn’t to say everyone with a Clear membership was coerced into signing up. Many people love it; the company told MIT Technology Review that it had a nearly 84% retention rate earlier this year. Still, for some experts, it’s worrisome to think that what Clear users are comfortable with ends up setting the ground rules for the rest of us. 

“We’re going to normalize potentially a bunch of biometric stuff but not have a sophisticated conversation about where and how we’re normalizing what,” says Young. She worries this will empower “actors who want to move toward a creepy surveillance state, or corporate surveillance capitalism on steroids.” 

“Without understanding what we’re building or how or where the guardrails are,” she adds, “I also worry that there could be major public backlash, and then legitimate uses [of biometric technology] are not understood and supported.”

But in the meantime, even superfans are grumbling about an uptick in wait times in the airport’s Clear lines. After all, if everyone decides to cut to the front of the line, that just creates a new long line of line-cutters.

Health Crisis Drives $50 Million Supplement CEO

Dean Brennan says a diet of beer, pizza, and fast food led to his ulcerative colitis. His doctors diagnosed it years ago in his twenties and told him he’d need medications for life. But Brennan decided otherwise.

“I didn’t want to take lifelong medication,” he told me. “It sparked my passion for health and led me to want to help others.”

Fast forward to 2024, and Brennan is the CEO of Heart & Soil, a nutritional supplement company doing $50 million in annual revenue.

In our recent conversation, he addressed his journey to Heart & Soil, key supplement ingredients, supply chain challenges, and more. The entire audio is embedded below. The transcript is edited for clarity and length.

Eric Bandholz: Give us a rundown of what you do.

Dean Brennan: I’m the CEO of Heart & Soil, a nutritional supplements company. I entered ecommerce in 2020 with no experience, coming from a background in filmmaking.

I got involved with the company from my personal health journey. In my twenties, I was diagnosed with ulcerative colitis, and doctors told me I’d need medication for life. I grew up eating home-cooked, natural foods, although in college I consumed a lot of beer, pizza, and fast food.

I didn’t want to take lifelong medication. It sparked my passion for health and led me to want to help others who suffer from conditions like psoriasis, Crohn’s disease, and eczema.

Heart & Soil offers supplements containing nature-based multivitamins made from bovine organs sourced from regenerative farms, initially in New Zealand and now also from the U.S.

Bandholz: How did you get connected with Heart & Soil?

Brennan: I was aware of Paul Saladino, our founder, but not the company. He’s a board-certified physician and a nutrition specialist. I followed him on social media while experimenting with a carnivore diet. I admired his ability to simplify complex health concepts and share them in an engaging way.

In 2020, I met Paul by chance, along with two employees who are now our chief research officer and head of operations. At the time, the company hadn’t launched yet, and I offered feedback on its prototype product. Initially, I wasn’t looking for a position in the company, but I was passionate about their mission.

Later that year, after my persistence, Paul brought me on board the day the company launched. I printed shipping labels and prepared the orders. Within three months, I had worked my way into a bigger role.

The team was small then — Paul, me, and three others. We worked out of a rental house in West Austin, packing and shipping supplements ourselves. We grew quickly. Paul realized his expertise was podcasting and researching, not operations. He assigned those responsibilities to me by January 2021.

Bandholz: How did you earn Paul’s trust so quickly?

Brennan: It was a gradual transition. Paul left for a trip to Africa. Then there was a massive ice storm in Austin, and he couldn’t return. Eventually, he went to Costa Rica and decided to stay there, leaving me to run the business. I think he trusted me because I showed up every day, worked hard, and didn’t ask for anything.

The transition was easy. I was nervous about how the team would react, but they were all on board. We’ve worked well together ever since.

Bandholz: How do you spread awareness beyond Paul’s podcast audience?

Brennan: Only about 30% of our customers come from Paul’s audience, with the same percentage coming through word of mouth. Our product works, and we’ve received hundreds of customer success stories. One of our strengths is personalized customer service. Our team of health guides offers one-on-one support, which has led to word-of-mouth referrals. People often tell others about us, even if they haven’t purchased our products themselves.

We also started another podcast called Radical Health Radio, and we’re producing films for YouTube. Our documentary on seed oils will be released next month.

Bandholz: What’s your supply chain like?

Brennan: Our long-term goal is to build a U.S.-based supply chain to produce all the organs needed for our supplements. In 2020, nothing like this existed in the U.S., so we sourced from New Zealand, where regenerative farming is common. But we’ve worked hard over the last four years to develop U.S. suppliers, supporting American farmers.

There’s a huge education gap in the U.S. regarding organ consumption. Around the world, most cultures consume organs regularly. We hope that educating consumers can drive demand for better products and ingredients.

When consumers ask for healthier alternatives, large companies will have to respond. This movement isn’t just about our products but about supporting sustainable farming practices and improving public health.

Bandholz: Where can people buy your supplements and follow you?

Brennan: Our ecommerce site is Heartandsoil.co. You can follow me on X and LinkedIn.

Charts: Ecommerce in Europe 2024

Total B2C ecommerce sales in Europe will grow 8% in 2024, reaching €958 billion ($1.02 trillion), up from €887 billion in 2023. That’s according to the “European E-commerce Report 2024” (PDF) from Ecommerce Europe, an association representing 150,000 companies selling consumer goods or services online in that continent.

The report encompasses 38 countries and includes data and trends surrounding internet penetration, e-shoppers, and B2C ecommerce sales. The report’s data comes from direct collaboration, interviews, and questionnaires with national ecommerce associations across the continent.

According to the data, 71% of European internet users shopped online in 2023, increasing slightly to a projected 72% in 2024.

In addition, The Netherlands has the highest share of internet users who buy online (92%), followed by Norway (91%) and Denmark (89%).

Moreover, the report also looks at data for the 27 E.U. member countries: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden.

According to the data, the most popular categories for E.U. internet shoppers in 2023 were “Clothes, shoes, accessories” (70%), followed by “Multimedia: music, films, books, games” (48%).