Sep 30 2025
What OpenAI’s Research Reveals About The Future Of AI Search

The launch of ChatGPT in 2022 didn’t so much cause a shift in the search landscape as trigger a series of seismic events. And, like seismologists, the SEO industry needs data if it’s to predict future tremors and aftershocks – let alone prepare itself for what the landscape might reshape itself into once the ground has finally settled.

So, when OpenAI released a 65-page research paper on Sept. 15, 2025, titled “How People Use ChatGPT,” some of us were understandably excited to finally have some authoritative usage data from inside a major large language model (LLM).

Two key findings leap out:

  1. We’re closer to mass adoption of AI than most probably realize.
  2. How users interact with ChatGPT has fundamentally shifted in the past year.

For SEOs, this isn’t just another adoption study: It’s strategic intelligence about where AI search is heading.

Mass Adoption Is Closer Than You Think

How close is ChatGPT to the tipping point where it will accelerate into mass adoption?

Developed by sociologist Everett Rogers, the diffusion of innovation theory provides us with a useful framework to explain how new technologies spread through society in predictable stages. First, there are the innovators, accounting for 2.5% of the market. Then, the early adopters come along (13.5%), to be followed by the early majority (34%). At this point, ~50% of the potential market has adopted the technology. Anyone jumping on board after this point can safely be described as either the late majority (34%), or laggards (16%).

The tipping point happens at around 20%, when the new technology is no longer confined to innovators or early adopters but is gradually taken up by the early majority. It’s at this point that mainstream adoption accelerates rapidly.

Now, let’s apply this to ChatGPT’s data.

Since launching in late 2022, ChatGPT’s growth has been staggering. The new report reveals that, in the five-month period from February to July 2025, ChatGPT grew from 400 million to 700 million weekly active users (WAU), sending 18 billion messages per week. That represents an average compound growth of roughly 11-12% month-over-month.

700 million WAU is equivalent to around 10% of the global adult population; impressive, but not quite mass adoption. Yet.

(Side note: Back in April, Sam Altman gave a figure of ~800 million weekly active users when speaking at TED 2025. To avoid confusion, we’ll stick with the official figure of 700 million WAU quoted in OpenAI’s report.)

It’s estimated there were approximately 5.65 billion internet users globally at the start of July 2025. This is the total addressable market (TAM) available to ChatGPT.

20% of 5.65 billion = 1.13 billion WAU. That’s the tipping point.

Even if the growth rate slows to a more conservative 5-6% per month, ChatGPT would already have reached at least 770 million WAU as I write this. At that rate of growth, ChatGPT will cross the mass adoption threshold between December 2025 and August 2026, with April 2026 as the most likely midpoint.

Of course, if the rate of growth remains closer to 11-12%, we can expect to tip over into mass adoption even earlier.

Start Level

July 2025

 Growth (MoM) September 2025 Approx. Crossing Window
700 million 4% 757.12 Aug 2026
700 million 5% 771.75 May 2026
700 million 6% 786.52 Apr 2026
700 million 7% 801.43 Mar 2026
700 million 8% 816.48 Feb 2026
700 million 9% 839.30 Jan 2026
700 million 10% 847.00 Jan 2026
700 million 11% 862.47 Dec 2025
700 million 12% 878.08 Dec 2025

For SEOs, this timeline matters. We don’t have years to prepare for mass AI search adoption. We have months.

The window is rapidly closing for any brands not wanting to be left behind.

The Behavioral Revolution Hiding In Plain Sight

Buried within OpenAI’s usage data is perhaps the most significant finding for search marketers: a fundamental shift in how people are using AI tools.

In June 2024, non-work messages accounted for 53% of all ChatGPT interactions. By June 2025, this figure had climbed to 73%. This is a clear signal that ChatGPT is moving from workplace tool to everyday utility.

Things get even more interesting when we look at the intent behind those queries. OpenAI categorizes user interactions into three types:

  1. Asking (seeking information and guidance).
  2. Doing (generating content or completing tasks).
  3. Expressing (sharing thoughts or feelings with no clear intent).

The data reveals that “Asking” now makes up 51.6% of all interactions, compared to 34.6% for “Doing” and 13.8% for “Expressing.”

Let’s be clear: What ChatGPT categorizes as “Asking” is pretty much synonymous with what we think of as AI search. These are the queries that were once the exclusive domain of search engines.

Users are also increasingly satisfied with the quality of responses to “Asking” queries, rating interactions as either Good or Bad at a ratio of 4.45:1. For “Doing” interactions, the ratio of Good to Bad drops to 2.76.

The trend becomes even clearer when we break down interactions by topic. Three topics account for just under 78% of all messages.

  • Practical Guidance (29%).
  • Seeking Information (24%).
  • Writing (24%).

These figures are even more noteworthy when you consider that, in July 2024, “Writing” was easily the most common topic (36%), dropping 12 percentiles in just one year.

And while “Practical Guidance” has remained steady at 29%, “Seeking Information” has shot up 10 percentiles from 14%. What a difference a year makes.

And while “Writing” still accounts for 42% of all work-related messages, the nature of these requests has shifted. Instead of generating content from scratch, two-thirds of writing requests now focus on editing, translating, or summarizing text supplied by the user.

Whichever way you slice it, AI search is now the primary use case for ChatGPT, not content generation. But where does that leave traditional search?

The AI Wars: Battling For The Future Of Search

ChatGPT may be reshaping the landscape, but Google hasn’t been sitting idle.

Currently rolling out to 180 countries worldwide, AI Mode is Google’s biggest response yet to ChatGPT’s encroachment on its territory. Setting the scene for what is likely to become a competitive struggle between Google and OpenAI to define and dominate AI search.

ChatGPT has an advantage in having largely established the conversational search behaviors we’re now seeing. Instead of piecing together information by clicking back and forth on links in the SERPs, ChatGPT provides users with complete answers in a fraction of the time.

Meanwhile, Google’s advantage is that AI Mode grounds responses against a highly sophisticated search infrastructure, drawing on decades of web indexing expertise, contextual authority, and myriad other signals.

The stakes are high. If Google doesn’t transition aggressively enough to seize ground in AI search and protect its overall search dominance, it risks becoming the next Ask Jeeves.

That’s why I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see AI Mode become their primary search interface sooner rather than later.

Naturally, this would be a massive disruption to the traditional Google Ads model. Google’s recent launch of a new payment protocol suggests it is already hedging against the risk of falling ad revenue from traditional search.

With everything still so fluid, it’s virtually impossible to predict what the search landscape will eventually look like once the dust has settled and new business models have emerged.

Whichever platform ultimately dominates, it’s all but certain that AI search will be the victor.

Instead of focusing on what we don’t know and waiting for answers, brands can use what they do know about AI search to seize a strategic advantage.

Rethinking Traffic Value

With most websites only seeing ~1-2% of traffic coming from LLMs like ChatGPT, it would be tempting to dismiss AI search as insignificant, a distraction – at least for now.

But with ChatGPT about to hit mass adoption in months, this picture could change very rapidly.

Plus, AI search isn’t primarily about clicks. Users will often get the information they need from AI search without clicking on a single link. AI search is about influence, awareness, and decision support.

However, analyzing traffic from AI sources does reveal some interesting patterns.

Our own research indicates that, in some industries at least, LLM-referred visitors convert at a higher rate than traditional search traffic.

This makes sense. If someone has already engaged with your brand through one or more AI interactions and still chooses to visit your site, they’re doing so with more intent than someone clicking through in search of basic information. Perhaps they’re highly engaged in the topic and want to go deeper. Or perhaps the AI responses have answered their product queries, and they’re now ready to buy.

Even if it results in fewer clicks, this indirect form of brand exposure could become increasingly valuable as AI adoption reaches mass market levels.

If 1-2% of traffic currently comes from AI sources at 10% market adoption, what happens when we reach 20% or 30% adoption? AI-mediated traffic – with its higher conversion rate – could easily grow to 5-10% of total website visits within two years.

For many businesses, that’s enough to warrant strategic attention now.

Strategic Implications For Search Marketers

Traditional keyword optimization hasn’t been cutting it for a while. And things aren’t about to get any simpler for anyone hoping to capture the intent-driven queries dominating AI interactions.

Digital marketers and SEOs need to think beyond algorithms, considering aspects that aren’t always so easily captured in a spreadsheet, such as user goals and decision-making processes.

This doesn’t mean we should abandon those SEO fundamentals essential to healthy, scalable growth. And technical SEO remains as important as ever, including proper site structure, fast loading times, and crawlable content.

However, when it comes to the content itself, the emphasis needs to shift toward providing greater depth, expertise, and user value. AI systems are far more likely to reward original, comprehensive, and authoritative information over keyword-optimized but otherwise thin content.

In short, your content needs to be built for “Asking.”

Focus on the underlying needs of the user: information gathering, interpretation, or decision support. And plan your content around “answer objects.” These are modular content components designed to be reused and repurposed by AI when generating responses to specific queries.

Instead of traditional articles targeting specific keywords, build decision frameworks that include goals, options, criteria, trade-offs, and guardrails. Each of these components can provide useful material for AI to cite in responses, whichever AI system that might be.

Preparing for AI search isn’t about looking for ways to game an algorithm. It’s about creating genuinely useful content that helps users make decisions.

For many brands, this will mean moving away from individually optimized pages to entire content ecosystems.

The Way Ahead

OpenAI’s research gives us the most authoritative picture yet of AI search adoption and user behavior. The data shows that we’re approaching a tipping point where AI-mediated search will become mainstream, while user behavior has shifted dramatically toward information seeking over content generation.

Meanwhile, the competitive landscape remains extremely fluid.

The message is clear, for now at least: Build for “Asking.”

Start planning strategies around intent-driven, decision-supporting content now, while the landscape is still evolving.

The businesses that can establish their authority in AI responses now will be in the best position when AI search does reach mass adoption – regardless of which platforms ultimately dominate.

More Resources:

Featured Image: Collagery/Shutterstock

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Sep 30 2025
From Loyalty To Fandom – How Brandoms Are Redefining Engagement

This excerpt is from “Transforming Customer-Brand Relationships” by Christina Garnett ©2025 and is reproduced and adapted with permission from Kogan Page Ltd.

If a brand wants consumers to love them and be their biggest fans, they need to give them something that is worthy of that love and devotion. One has to become a fan of the fans.

Brands are no longer just selling products or services – they are building communities, identities, and experiences. The emergence of brandoms (brand fandoms) signifies a deeper level of customer engagement, where consumers don’t just buy from a company but form a deep emotional bond, similar to how fans engage with entertainment franchises or celebrities.

When a brand achieves brandom status, it signifies more than customer satisfaction; it represents the pinnacle of emotional loyalty, cultural connection, and advocacy.

Understanding Fandoms And Brandoms

Fandoms are passionate communities centered around shared interests, often tied to entertainment mediums like movies, music, or books. These groups form a strong identity around the object of their devotion, actively promoting and defending it.

When this concept translates into the commercial world, it becomes what is known as a “brandom,” where fans of a specific brand exhibit similar passionate behaviors. Tesla enthusiasts, Apple devotees, and Nike sneakerheads, for example, are more than just consumers – they integrate the brand into their personal identity, championing it as an essential part of who they are.

At its essence, a brandom represents the ultimate aspiration for companies, signaling that they have surpassed mere transactional relationships to achieve an emotional loyalty that is rare in the marketplace. Unlike a typical loyal customer who makes repeat purchases, members of a brandom advocate, evangelize, and sometimes even help co-create the brand’s future. This elevated form of loyalty means the brand has become integral to the customer’s personal narrative and sense of self.

For Dr. Georgie Carroll, a fan culture expert, the difference between fandom and brandom comes down to control. “Fandoms are organic and fan-led rather than being created and controlled by brands. Think about how fans build community around television shows or books that continue years after they’ve been released.

They’re engaging with the product, but in their own, participatory spaces. They don’t necessarily need the brand, and the brand has no say over what they’re saying or doing (which is often how fans like it – never forget the fourth wall!).

“Brandoms, however, are marketing-led spaces where brands are able to control (to a degree) the participation and engagement practices of their fans. This occurs primarily through a brand offering a ‘reward’ system that encourages participation. The exact nature of the reward varies based on what exactly it is that your customers value, which is why understanding your audience is so important.

Taylor Swift fans, for example, engage in her brandom in the hopes of receiving a social media like or reply, but that’s not going to work for everyone. You don’t want to be the uninvited guest among your customers: You need them to see you as adding value to the community, and giving them a reason to stick around.”

Dan Gingiss, customer experience expert and author, has spent years researching and exploring what makes customers feel like they have a relationship with a brand instead of being treated like a transaction.

Surprisingly, the biggest brand fans he’s interviewed shared that their loyalty was built off something going wrong. “I believe that one of the core human desires we have, first of all, we don’t look at it as a transaction. We look at it as a relationship. Companies tend to look at it as transactions. But in a relationship, in any relationship, you want to make sure the other person has your back.

Traditional customer loyalty often relies on incentives like discounts or perks, aiming to encourage frequent purchases or brand preference. A brandom, however, encompasses a far deeper, more complex relationship. Several unique factors contribute to this phenomenon. The first is emotional investment: Unlike loyalty programs, which reward frequent buyers, brandoms foster a genuine emotional connection.

Customers become deeply invested in the brand’s story, mission, and ethos, seeing it as an extension of their own values. For instance, Patagonia’s dedication to environmental activism has drawn a customer base that views the brand as a mirror of their commitment to sustainability, forming a loyal community around shared principles and purpose. By continuing to buy from Patagonia, they are essentially advocating for the brand and its purpose of sustainability.

A second characteristic of brandoms is identity and self-expression. Customers in a brandom don’t just buy products for their functional benefits; they choose them as symbols of who they are and what they value.

Wearing an Apple Watch or riding a Harley-Davidson motorcycle goes beyond utility – it’s a statement of lifestyle, values, and self-image. For these customers, the brand relationship is a part of their personal identity, serving as a visible marker of the way they see themselves and wish to be seen by others.

A third vital component of brandoms is community and social belonging. Just as fandoms thrive on collective experiences, brandoms also foster a sense of community built around shared experiences, values, and interests. These communities form both online and offline, creating spaces where fans can interact, share experiences, and even celebrate the brand together.

Companies like LEGO actively nurture these communities, recognizing the value of spaces where fans can engage not only with the brand but with each other. This sense of belonging strengthens the emotional bond as fans feel connected not just to the brand but to others who share their passion.

Finally, a hallmark of any strong brandom is advocacy and word-of-mouth. Fans within a brandom naturally become brand ambassadors, spreading the word through social media, user-generated content, or personal recommendations.

This type of advocacy is invaluable to businesses because it is perceived as authentic, trustworthy, and free from commercial bias – qualities that traditional advertising often lacks. These brand advocates serve as an organic, self-sustaining marketing force, attracting new customers while reinforcing their own connection to the brand.

Brandoms transform customer loyalty into an experience rooted in emotional resonance, personal identity, and shared community. By achieving this level of relationship, brands not only secure long-term support but also cultivate a group of individuals who see the brand as an essential part of their lives.

This unique blend of personal attachment, communal engagement, and organic advocacy positions brandoms as a powerful force, driving both business success and cultural relevance.

So, how do brands turn a customer’s “like” into “love”? Marketing strategist and best-selling author David Meerman Scott sees two main elements. “The first thing is that it seems like it requires humanity. And what I mean by that is it seems like it requires that organizations have an approach to the way they do business that feels authentic, it feels real.

“It feels like there are people behind it that care. That’s not to say that things like AI or other technologies can’t help because I think they can. But people generally don’t want to be treated like they’re a number. They don’t want to be treated like they’re just a customer to extract money from.

“So, there’s that idea of humanity. The second thing, which kind of was surprising when I was originally doing my research but in hindsight makes total sense, is that we all want to belong to a tribe of like-minded people.”

Authenticity and connection forge the road to affinity and brandoms.

Business Relevance: Why Brandoms Matter

For brands, building a “brandom” – a dedicated community of passionate brand fans – is more than a badge of honor. It’s a powerful business strategy with tangible benefits. A well-nurtured brandom drives organic growth by reducing customer acquisition costs. When fans share their enthusiasm, they create a wave of authentic word-of-mouth advertising that brings in new customers without the need for extensive and costly marketing efforts.

Customers within a brandom have higher lifetime value, making repeat purchases and engaging with premium or new products. Their emotional connection to the brand leads to consistent spending, seeing it as part of their lifestyle rather than just a purchase. This loyalty gives brands resilience in competitive markets, where others rely on discounts to retain customers. Apple exemplifies this, with users choosing its products despite lower-cost alternatives because the brand feels integral to their identity.

Beyond loyalty, brandoms foster collaboration, turning customers into contributors. These fans actively participate in product development, offering feedback, ideas, and design input. This co-creation strengthens the relationship between brand and consumer while driving innovation.

Passionate fan communities also elevate brands beyond their industry, shaping culture and embodying values that resonate deeply with consumers. Nike, for example, is more than a sportswear brand – it symbolizes empowerment and personal achievement.

A strong brandom not only provides a competitive edge but also positions a brand as a cultural icon, standing out in both its industry and broader society.

To read the full book, SEJ readers have an exclusive 25% discount code and free shipping to the US and UK. Use promo code “SEJ25” at koganpage.com here.

More Resources: 

Featured Image: Anton Vierietin/Shutterstock

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Sep 30 2025
Coming soon: Our 2025 list of Climate Tech Companies to Watch

The need to cut emissions and adapt to our warming world is growing more urgent. This year, we’ve seen temperatures reach record highs, as they have nearly every year for the last decade. Climate-fueled natural disasters are affecting communities around the world, costing billions of dollars. 

That’s why, for the past two years, MIT Technology Review has curated a list of companies with the potential to make a meaningful difference in addressing climate change (you can revisit the 2024 list here). We’re excited to share that we’ll publish our third edition of Climate Tech Companies to Watch on October 6. 

The list features businesses from around the world that are building technologies to reduce emissions or address the impacts of climate change. They represent advances across a wide range of industries, from agriculture and transportation to energy and critical minerals. 

One notable difference about this year’s list is that we’ve focused on fewer firms—we’ll highlight 10 instead of the 15 we’ve recognized in previous years. 

This change reflects the times: Climate science and technology are in a dramatically different place from where they were just one year ago. The US, the world’s largest economy and historically its biggest polluter, has made a U-turn on climate policy as the Trump administration cancels hundreds of billions of dollars in grants, tax credits, and loans designed to support the industry and climate research.  

And the stark truth is that time is of the essence. This year marks 10 years since the Paris Agreement, the UN treaty that aimed to limit global warming by setting a goal of cutting emissions so that temperatures would rise no more than 1.5 °C above preindustrial temperatures. Today, experts agree that we’ve virtually run out of time to reach that goal and will need to act fast to limit warming to less than 2 °C.

The companies on this year’s list are inventing and scaling technologies that could help. There’s a wide array of firms represented, from early-stage startups to multibillion-dollar businesses. Their technologies run the gamut from electric vehicles to the materials that scaffold our world. 

Of course, we can’t claim to be able to predict the future: Not all the businesses we’ve recognized will succeed. But we’ve done our best to choose companies with a solid technical footing, as well as feasible plans for bringing their solutions to the right market and scaling them effectively. 

We’re excited to share the list with you in just a few days. These companies are helping address one of the most crucial challenges of our time. Who knows—maybe you’ll even come away feeling a little more hopeful.

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Sep 30 2025
The Download: AI to detect child abuse images, and what to expect from our 2025 Climate Tech Companies to Watch list

This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology.

US investigators are using AI to detect child abuse images made by AI

Generative AI has enabled the production of child sexual abuse images to skyrocket. Now the leading investigator of child exploitation in the US is experimenting with using AI to distinguish AI-generated images from material depicting real victims, according to a new government filing.

The Department of Homeland Security’s Cyber Crimes Center, which investigates child exploitation across international borders, has awarded a $150,000 contract to San Francisco–based Hive AI for its software, which can identify whether a piece of content was AI-generated. Read the full story.

—James O’Donnell

Coming soon: our 2025 list of Climate Tech Companies to Watch

The need to cut emissions and adapt to our warming world is growing more urgent. This year, we’ve seen temperatures reach record highs, as they have nearly every year for the last decade. Climate-fueled natural disasters are affecting communities around the world, costing billions of dollars. 

That’s why, for the past two years, MIT Technology Review has curated a list of companies with the potential to make a meaningful difference in addressing climate change (you can revisit the 2024 list here). We’re excited to share that we’ll publish our third edition of Climate Tech Companies to Watch on October 6. Here’s what you can expect from this year’s list.

—Casey Crownhart

The must-reads

I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology.

1 ChatGPT’s parental controls are now live
The model can now alert parents and law enforcement when users under 18-years old discuss self harm or suicide. (Wired $)
+ The feature launches as chatbot makers face increasing pressure to improve safety. (Bloomberg $)
+ The looming crackdown on AI companionship. (MIT Technology Review)

2 Companies’ AI spending is spiralling out of control
And it’s unclear whether they’ll ever get returns on their investments. (WSJ $)
+ Some VCs are convinced AI is the best way to make a quick buck. (TechCrunch)
+ Investors are wondering what to invest in beyond AI. (Reuters)

3 Even oil executives are worried by Trump’s attacks on offshore wind
Cracking down on renewables now is bad news for traditional energy down the line. (NYT $)
+ The scale of the Trump administration’s intervention is wild. (The Guardian)
+ How to make clean energy progress under Trump in the states. (MIT Technology Review)

4 How America is winning the war on city fires
Making homes fire-resistant isn’t glamorous—but it’s essential. (Vox)
+ How AI can help spot wildfires. (MIT Technology Review)

5 Top AI firms are going all-in on world models
They’re powered by videos and robotics data, not just language. (FT $)
+ Experts are convinced they’re vital to creating the next wave of AI. (WSJ $)

6 China is rushing to electrify freight trucks
Not content with dominating the electric car market, it’s eyeing bigger vehicles. (Rest of World)
+ Sales of battery-powered cars are projected to plummet in the US. (NYT $)

7 What we lose when we rely on AI translation
Nuance and cultural context are among the first casualties. (WP $)
+ How AI and Wikipedia have sent vulnerable languages into a doom spiral. (MIT Technology Review)

8 The tricky ethics of gene-editing the natural world
Just because we can, doesn’t mean we should. (Aeon)
+ The short, strange history of gene de-extinction. (MIT Technology Review)

9 This robotics firm uses AI to clean the underside of giant ships 🚢
Neptune Robotics has the lofty goal of becoming Uber for hull-cleaning. (Bloomberg $)

10 Talent agents are desperate to sign this AI actress
We are living in the end times. (Deadline $)
+ Why the Twin Peaks subreddit briefly became an AI slop dumping ground. (404 Media)
+ An AI-powered hologram of Marvel Comics’ creator Stan Lee isn’t very popular. (Ars Technica)

Quote of the day

“There’s so much pressure to be the company that went from zero to $100 million in X days.”

—An anonymous VC tells Fortune about the intense pressure on startups in the age of AI hype.

One more thing

How DeepSeek became a fortune teller for China’s youth

As DeepSeek has emerged as a homegrown challenger to OpenAI, young people across China have started using AI to revive fortune-telling practices that have deep roots in Chinese culture.

People are sharing AI-generated readings, experimenting with fortune-telling prompt engineering, and revisiting ancient spiritual texts—all with the help of DeepSeek.

The surge in AI fortune-telling comes during a time of pervasive anxiety and pessimism in Chinese society. And as spiritual practices remain hidden underground thanks to the country’s regime, computers and phone screens are helping younger people to gain a sense of control over their lives. Read the full story.

—Caiwen Chen

We can still have nice things

A place for comfort, fun and distraction to brighten up your day. (Got any ideas? Drop me a line or skeet ’em at me.)

+ This site lets you find out what was happening in the news on the day you were born. 
+ This blistering track by South Korean band Silica Gel confirms rock is alive and well.
+  Spend a few minutes exploring Hieronymus Bosch’s Garden of Earthly Delights.
+ Play around with this map that allows you to explore movie settings around the world.

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Sep 30 2025
Google’s Spam Updates, Explained

Google completed its August 2025 algorithm update a few days ago. The update coincided with Google’s cancellation of the &num=100 query parameter, which lowered impression counts in Search Console.

Thus assessing the impact of the update in Search Console is confusing as the two events occurred more or less concurrently.

Google stated the update focused on spammy web pages. To gauge the impact on your site, view the “Clicks” metric in Search Console’s “Performance” report.

Traffic declines from spam updates are typically drastic. In this case, affected sites would have experienced a steep drop in clicks from August 26 through September 22.

Google’s spam updates:

  • Are automated, with no penalty message in Search Console, even if impacted.
  • Can only affect sites negatively. Traffic increases result from competitor declines.
  • Are usually recoverable after fixing the cause(s). The recovery may take months, although it does not depend on another core update.
  • Focus on sites violating its spam policies, and likely pertains only to on-site content. When it targets external backlinks, Google usually includes “link” in the update name. Otherwise, spam updates don’t include backlink signals.

Google’s Spam Policies

Google’s Search Central portal contains the company’s spam policies. Here are my explanations of the key components.

Cloaking or sneaky redirects. When a page (i) shows different content to search engines and users or (ii) redirects for users, but not search engines.

Doorway abuse. When a site has pages targeting similar keywords — a common reason to be hit by a spam update. To recover, cluster keywords by intent and restructure the site to target those groups instead of each word or phrase.

Expired domain abuse. When you buy an expired domain and leverage its authority for elevated rankings. There’s no easy recovery short of moving to a fresh domain. I have not seen declines in sites hosted on expired domains. Perhaps Google now detects that activity and does not rank expired-domain pages to begin with.

Hidden text and link abuse. When you hide words or links from users behind images and font-background color matching, such as white fonts on white backgrounds. I haven’t seen these tactics for years.

Keyword stuffing. When you fill a page with keywords or numbers to manipulate rankings. The policy is subjective, making it difficult to detect. (How many keywords are too many?) In my experience, however, actual keyword stuffing is obvious and rare.

Machine-generated traffic; scaled content abuse. When you deploy artificial intelligence or other automated methods to generate content at scale.

Scraping. When you use automated methods to steal and publish content from other sites.

Site reputation abuse. When you publish irrelevant content (usually whole sections) to benefit from your site’s authority, Google used to target this tactic separately, but may now include it in generic spam updates.

Thin affiliation. When you create an affiliate site by duplicating external product descriptions without adding anything unique or useful.

Misleading functionality. When a page promises one functionality, such as a PDF download, but instead executes something else, such as an ad click.

User-generated spam. When a site’s comments and other user-generated info include excessive promotional or offensive language or links.

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Sep 29 2025
Hostinger Makes WordPress Agentic Web-Ready via @sejournal, @martinibuster

Hostinger announced a new AI-agent optimization feature that makes any WordPress website AI-agent-friendly, optimizing websites to provide the best experience for humans using AI agents to compare products, plan vacations, and perform other tasks that are part of a user’s information and consumer journey.

Agentic Web

The Agentic Web is a new reality of the Internet based on reducing friction for Agentic AI. Agentic AI refers to AI bots that go out into the web to complete tasks on behalf of humans.

The original version of the web was optimized as a platform for interactions with people. The Agentic Web is optimized for interactions with AI agents. What makes the Agentic Web possible is a collection of protocols and standards that make it easy for a person’s AI agent to crawl and complete tasks on websites.

Consumers are increasingly relying on AI for their information needs, and this includes product research. Just as websites had to become mobile-friendly to keep up with how users were consuming information, informational and e-commerce websites also need to begin considering how to capture that audience comprised of AI agents working on behalf of consumers.

Hostinger’s Web2Agent

Hostinger announced a new feature called Web2Agent. Web2Agent makes WordPress websites Agentic AI friendly with a single click. Web2Agent also works on Hostinger’s proprietary website builder.

According to Hostinger:

“Web2Agent is an experimental feature developed and operated by Hostinger. It transforms your website into a fully AI-compatible agent that can be easily discovered, understood, and accessed by AI tools. It currently works best with Claude, Cursor and tools supporting MCP protocol and we’re working on integrating it with ChatGPT, Gemini, and other autonomous AI agents.

As the internet shifts toward an agent-driven future, this feature helps position your website as a first-class participant in that ecosystem – intelligent, accessible, and interoperable.”

Enabling Web2Agent makes websites ready for interaction with AI while also respecting robots.txt and conforming to LLMs.txt.

Hostinger explains that it currently works with the MCP protocol and with any other tools and apps that connect to that protocol. It will be adding more protocols in the near future.

Read more at Hostinger:

AI is making standard websites outdated – here’s how to keep up

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Sep 29 2025
Brave Introduces Ask Brave, A Unified AI Search Interface via @sejournal, @MattGSouthern

Brave is rolling out Ask Brave, a unified search tool that combines AI chat features with regular search results.

It’s accessible on all browsers via the Brave Search homepage.

Ask Brave offers detailed answers, along with interactive elements like videos, webpages, and product listings, all within a single interface.

What’s ‘Ask Brave?’

Ask Brave builds on the company’s existing AI Answers feature, which Brave claims produces over 15 million responses daily.

The initial AI summarization tool was launched in 2023 as “Summarizer,” then renamed “Answer with AI,” and is now called “AI Answers.”

Josep M. Pujol, Chief of Search at Brave, says:

While AI Answers give our users quick summaries, Ask Brave provides longer answers, follow-ups, and a chat mode enhanced with Deep Research, and most importantly, contextually relevant enrichments such as videos, news articles, products, businesses, shopping, and more – in the right place, at the right time. Search makes it possible, LLMs glue it together. We anticipate that Ask Brave will generate millions more daily AI-powered answers with this powerful combination of search and chat, and look forward to deploying more useful AI-powered search tools for our users.

The company positions Ask Brave as a solution to a common frustration: switching between traditional search interfaces and chat tools. You can now access both from one entry point.

Grounded In Search

Brave reports Ask Brave achieves 94.9% accuracy on SimpleQA, using grounding tech with its Search API.

It taps into over 35 billion webpages to base responses on web info, reportedly reducing hallucinations and irrelevant results.

The Deep Research mode issues queries and analyzes thousands of pages to identify and address blind spots, Brave says.

Privacy

Brave affirms that Ask Brave follows its privacy-first policy.

Questions and chats aren’t used for training purposes. Conversations are encrypted, automatically deleted after 24 hours of inactivity, and IP addresses aren’t stored.

How To Use It

There are several ways to access Ask Brave:

  • Include double question marks (“??”) in queries when Brave Search is your default engine.
  • Click the “Ask” button on search.brave.com.
  • Choose the “Ask” tab on search results pages to switch traditional results to chat mode.
  • Directly set the homepage to the Ask Brave interface.

Broader Context

Brave claims Brave Search is the third-largest independent global search engine, handling about 1.5 billion monthly queries. The Brave browser reports over 97 million monthly active users worldwide, according to the company.

The launch lands as major search engines continue integrating AI into core experiences. Google has rolled out AI Mode across Search, while Microsoft has integrated Copilot into Bing and Edge.

Brave also offers a Search API that provides real-time data to AI language models.

Featured Image: bangla press/shutterstock

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Sep 29 2025
Google Launches New Small-Business Resource Hub via @sejournal, @MattGSouthern

Google has launched a small-business resource hub, positioning it as a single starting point for setup, advertising, measurement, and support.

The page pulls together direct entry points for Business Profile, Merchant Center, Google Ads and YouTube Ads, plus a clear “get started” path into Google Analytics.

It also spotlights Workspace’s AI features and links beginner training and help resources in one place.

What’s In It?

The hub serves as a gateway to Google’s small-business tools.

You can claim a Business Profile, list products in Merchant Center, launch Google Ads or YouTube Ads, and activate Analytics.

The layout makes it easier to move a client from “claim your profile” to “list products” to “launch ads” without hopping sites.

Screenshot from: business.google.com/us/essentials/, September 2025.

How It Helps

For agencies and consultants, the practical use is straightforward: you can send new clients to a single URL for onboarding instead of assembling links across multiple Google properties.

It’s a navigational layer over tools you already use. What’s actually new is the packaging and emphasis.

Google has offered “Google for Small Business” destinations before, but this refresh lives on business.google.com, reflects today’s ads lineup, and puts AI-assisted workflows and starter website options in view.

That makes it more useful as a canonical link you can include in proposals, kickoff emails, and checklists.

Looking Ahead

The test for marketers is whether Google continues to keep this page fresh with the latest product updates, new partner offers, and up-to-date guides.

If it does, it can make onboarding smoother for small teams and give you more time to focus on strategy instead of worrying about URL management.

Featured Image: IB Photography/Shutterstock

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Sep 29 2025
The Impact Of AI Overviews & How Publishers Need To Adapt via @sejournal, @MattGSouthern

Google rolled out AI Overviews to all U.S. users in May 2024. Since then, publishers have reported significant traffic losses, with some seeing click-through rates drop by as much as 89%. The question isn’t whether AI Overviews impact traffic, but how much damage they’re doing to specific content types.

Search (including Google Discover and traditional Google Search) consistently accounts for between 20% and 40% of referral traffic to most major publishers, making it their largest external traffic source. When DMG Media, which owns MailOnline and Metro, reports nearly 90% declines for certain searches, it’s a stark warning for traditional publishing.

After more than a year of AI Overviews (and Search Generative Experience), we have extensive data from publishers, researchers, and industry analysts. This article pulls together findings from multiple studies covering hundreds of thousands of keywords, tens of thousands of user searches, and real-world publisher experiences.

The evidence spans from Pew Research’s 46% average decline to DMG Media’s 89% worst-case scenarios. Educational platforms like Chegg report a 49% decline. But branded searches are actually increasing for some, suggesting there are survival strategies for those who adapt.

This article explains what’s really happening and why, including the types of content that face the biggest changes and which are staying relatively stable. You’ll understand why Google says clicks are “higher quality” even as publishers see traffic declines, and you’ll see what changes might make sense based on real data rather than guesses.

AI Overviews are the biggest change to search since featured snippets were introduced in 2014. They’re affecting the kinds of content publishers produce, and they’re increasing zero-click searches, which now make up 69% of all queries, according to Similarweb.

Whether your business relies on search traffic or you’re just watching industry trends, these patterns are significantly impacting digital marketing.

What we’re seeing is a new era in search and a change that is reshaping how online information is shared and how users interact with it.

AI Overview Studies: The Overwhelming Evidence

Google’s AI Overviews (AIO) have impacted traffic across most verticals and altered search behavior.

The feature, which was first introduced as Search Generative Experience (SGE) announced at Google I/O in May 2023, now appears in over 200 countries and 40 languages following a May 2025 expansion.

Independent research conducted throughout 2024 and 2025 shows click-through rate reductions ranging from 34% to 46% when AI summaries appear on search results pages.

Evidence from a variety of independent studies outlines the impact of AIO and shows a range of effects depending on the type of content and how it’s measured:

Reduced Click Through Rates – Pew Research Center

A study by Pew Research Center provides a rigorous analysis. By tracking 68,000 real search queries, researchers found that users clicked on results 8% of the time when AI summaries appeared, compared to 15% without them. That’s a 46.7% relative reduction.

Pew’s study tracked actual user behavior, rather than relying on estimates or keyword tools, validating publisher concerns.

Google questioned Pew’s methodology, claiming that the analysis period overlapped with algorithm testing unrelated to AI Overviews. However, the decline and its connection to AI Overview presence suggest a notable relationship, even if other factors played a role.

Position One Eroded – Ahrefs

Ahrefs’ analysis found that position one click-through rates dropped for informational keywords triggering AI Overviews.

Ryan Law, Director of Content Marketing at Ahrefs, stated on LinkedIn:

“AI Overviews reduce clicks by 34.5%. Google says being featured in an AI Overview leads to higher click-through rates… Logic disagrees, and now, so does our data.”

Law’s observation gets to the heart of a major contradiction: Google says appearing in AI Overviews helps publishers, but the math of fewer clicks suggests this is just corporate doublespeak to appease content creators.

His post garnered over 8,200 reactions, indicating widespread industry agreement with these findings.

More Zero-Click Searches – Similarweb

According to Similarweb data, zero-click searches increased from 56% to 69% between May 2024 and May 2025. While this captures trends beyond AI Overviews, the timing aligns with the rollout.

Zero-click searches work because they meet user needs. For example, when someone searches for “weather today” or a stock price, getting an instant answer without clicking is helpful. The issue comes when zero-click searches creep into areas where publishers used to offer in-depth content.

Stuart Forrest, global director of SEO digital publishing at Bauer Media, confirms the trend, telling the BBC:

“We’re definitely moving into the era of lower clicks and lower referral traffic for publishers.”

Forrest’s admitting to this new reality shows that the industry as a whole is coming to terms with the end of the golden age of search traffic. Not with a dramatic impact, but with a steady decline in clicks as AI meets users’ needs before they ever leave Google’s ecosystem.

Search Traffic Decline – Digital Content Next

An analysis by Digital Content Next found a 10% overall search traffic decline among member publishers between May and June.

Although modest compared to DMG’s worst-case scenarios, this represents millions of lost visits across major publishers.

AIO Placement Volatility – Authoritas

An Authoritas report finds that AI Overview placements are more volatile than organic ones. Over a two- to three-month period, about 70% of the pages cited in AI Overviews changed, and these changes weren’t linked to traditional organic rankings.

This volatility is why some sites experience sudden traffic drops even when their blue-link rankings seem stable.

Click-Based Economy Collapse For News Publishers – DMG Media

A statement from DMG Media to the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority reveals click-through rates dropped by as much as 89% when AI Overviews appeared for their content.

Although this figure represents a worst-case scenario rather than an average, it highlights the potential for traffic losses for certain search types.

Additionally, there are differences in how AI Overviews affect click-through rates depending on the device type.

The Daily Mail’s desktop CTR dropped from 25.23% to 2.79% when an AI Overview surfaced above a visible link (-89%), with mobile traffic declining by 87%; U.S. figures were similar.

These numbers indicate we’re facing more than just a temporary adjustment period. We’re witnessing a structural collapse of the click-based economy that has supported digital publishing since the early 2000s. With traffic declines approaching 90%, we’ve gone beyond optimization tactics and into existential crisis mode territory.

The submission to regulatory authorities suggests they’re confident in these numbers, despite their magnitude.

Educational Site Disruption – Chegg

Educational platforms are experiencing disruption from AI Overviews.

Learning platform Chegg reported a 49% decline in non-subscriber traffic between January 2024 and January 2025 in company statements accompanying their February antitrust lawsuit.

The decline coincided with AI Overviews answering homework and study questions that previously drove traffic to educational sites. Chegg’s lawsuit alleges that Google used content from educational publishers to train AI systems that now compete directly with those publishers.

Chegg’s case is a warning sign for educational content creators: If AI systems can successfully replace structured learning platforms, what’s the future for smaller publishers?

Reduced Visibility For Top Ranking Sites – Advanced Web Ranking

AI Overviews are dense and tall, impacting the visibility of organic results.

Advanced Web Ranking found that across 8,000 keywords, AI Overviews average around 169 words and include about seven links when expanded.

Once expanded, the first organic result often appears about 1,674px down the page. That’s well below the fold on most screens, reducing visibility for even top-ranked pages.

Branded Searches: The Surprising Exception

While most query types are seeing traffic declines, branded searches show the opposite trend. According to Amsive’s research, branded queries with AI Overviews see an 18% increase in click-through rate.

Several related factors likely contribute to this brand advantage. When AI Overviews mention specific brands, it conveys authority and credibility in ways that generic content can’t replicate.

People seeing their preferred brand in an AI Overview may be more likely to click through to the official site. Additionally, AI Overviews for branded searches often include rich information like store hours, contact details, and direct links, making it easier for users to find what they need.

This pattern has strategic implications as companies that have invested in brand building have a strong defense against AI disruption. The 18% increase in branded terms versus a 34-46% decrease in generic terms (as shown above) creates a performance gap that will likely impact marketing budgets.

The brand advantage extends beyond direct brand searches. Queries combining brand names with product categories show smaller traffic declines than purely generic searches. This suggests that even partial brand recognition provides some protection against AI Overview disruption. Companies with strong brands can leverage this by ensuring their brand appears naturally in relevant conversations and content.

This brand premium creates a two-tier internet, where established brands flourish while smaller content creators struggle financially. The impact on information diversity and market competition is troubling.

Google’s Defense: Stable Traffic, Better Quality

Google maintains a consistent three-part defense of AI Overviews:

  • Increased search usage.
  • Improved click quality.
  • Stable overall traffic.

The company frames AI Overviews as enhancing rather than replacing traditional search, though this narrative faces increasing skepticism from publishers experiencing traffic declines.

The company’s blog post from May, introducing the global expansion, stated:

“AI Overviews is driving over 10% increase in usage of Google for the types of queries that show AI Overviews. This means that once people use AI Overviews, they are coming to do more of these types of queries.”

Although this statistic shows a rise in Google Search engagement, it’s sparked intense debate and skepticism in the search and publishing worlds. Many experts agree that a 10% boost in AI Overview-driven searches could be due to changes in user behavior, but also warn that higher search volumes don’t automatically mean more traffic for content publishers.

A number of LinkedIn industry voices have publicly pushed back on Google’s 10% usage increase narrative. For example, Devansh Parashar writes:

“Google’s claim that AI Overviews have driven 10% more searches masks a troubling trend. Data from independent research firms, such as Pew, show that a majority of users do not click beyond the AI Overview— a figure that suggests Google’s LLM layer is quietly eating the web’s traffic pie.”

Similarly, Trevin Shirey points out concerns about the gap between increased engagement with search queries and the actual traffic publishers see:

“Although Google reports a surge in usage, many publishers are experiencing declines in organic click-through rates. This signals a silent crisis where users get quick answers from AI, but publishers are left behind.”

Google’s claim about increased usage needs to be read carefully. The increase is only for certain types of queries that show AI overviews, not overall search volume.

If users have to make multiple searches to find information they could have gotten in one click, their overall usage might go up, but their satisfaction could actually decrease.

In an August blog post, Google’s head of search, Liz Reid, claimed the volume of clicks from Google search to websites had been “relatively stable” year-over-year.

Reid also asserted that click quality had improved:

“With AI Overviews, people are searching more and asking new questions that are often longer and more complex. In addition, with AI Overviews people are seeing more links on the page than before. More queries and more links mean more opportunities for websites to surface and get clicked.”

A Google spokesperson told the BBC:

“More than any other company, Google prioritises sending traffic to the web, and we continue to send billions of clicks to websites every day.”

Google’s developer documentation states:

“We’ve seen that when people click from search results pages with AI Overviews, these clicks are higher quality (meaning, users are more likely to spend more time on the site).”

Publishers are understandably concerned and question the differences between Google’s description of stability and the actual data showing otherwise.

Jason Kint, CEO of Digital Content Next, notes:

“Since Google rolled out AI Overviews in your search results, median year-over-year referral traffic from Google Search to premium publishers down 10%.”

Kint’s data shatters Google’s carefully crafted image of stability, exposing what many publishers already suspect: The search giant’s promises are increasingly at odds with the realities reflected in their analytics dashboards and revenue reports.

The argument that higher-quality clicks are more valuable doesn’t provide much comfort when revenue is falling short. Even if engagement increases, losing such a large portion of clicks is a serious challenge for many ad-supported businesses.

Echoing these concerns, SEO Lead Jeff Domansky states:

“For publishers, AI Overviews are a direct hit to traffic and revenue models built around clicks and pageviews.”

Although Google claims that AI Overview clicks are of higher quality, many industry experts are skeptical.

Lily Ray, Vice President, SEO Strategy & Research at Amsive, highlights the lack of quality control on Google’s end:

“Since Google’s AI Overviews were launched, I (and many others) have shared dozens of examples of spam, misinformation, and inaccurate, biased, or incomplete results appearing in live AI Overview responses.”

And SEO specialist Barry Adams raises concerns about the quality and sustainability:

“Google’s AI Overviews are terrible at quoting the right sources… There is nothing intelligent about LLMs. They’re advanced word predictors, and using them for any purpose that requires a basis in verifiable facts – like search queries – is fundamentally wrong.”

Adams highlights a philosophical contradiction in AI Overviews: By relying on probabilistic language models to answer factual questions, Google may be misaligning technology with user needs.

This range of voices highlights a growing disconnect between Google’s hopeful engagement claims and the tough realities many publishers are facing as their referral traffic and revenue decrease.

Google hasn’t provided specific metrics defining “higher quality.” Publishers can’t verify these claims without access to comparative engagement data from AI Overview versus traditional search traffic.

Legal Challenges Mount

Publishers are seeking relief through regulatory and legal channels. In July, the Independent Publishers Alliance, tech justice nonprofit Foxglove, and the campaign group Movement for an Open Web filed a complaint with the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority. They claim that Google AI Overviews misuse publisher content, causing harm to newspapers.

The complaint urges the CMA to impose temporary measures that prevent Google from using publisher content in AI-generated responses without compensation.

It’s still unclear whether courts and regulators, which often move at a slow pace, can take action quickly enough to help publishers before market forces make any potential solutions irrelevant. A classic example of regulation trying to keep up with technological advancements.

The rapid growth of AI Overviews suggests that market realities may outstrip legal solutions.

Publisher Adaptations: Beyond Google Dependence

With threats looming, publishers are rushing to cut their reliance on Google. David Higgerson shares Reach’s approach in a statement to the BBC:

“We need to go and find where audiences are elsewhere and build relationships with them there. We’ve got millions of people who receive our alerts on WhatsApp. We’ve built newsletters.”

Instead of creating content for Google discovery, publishers need to develop direct relationships. Email newsletters, mobile apps, and podcast subscriptions provide traffic sources that aren’t affected by AI Overview disruptions.

Stuart Forrest stresses the importance of quality as a key differentiator:

“We need to make sure that it’s us being cited and not our rivals. Things like writing good quality content… it’s amazing the number of publishers that just give up on that.”

However, quality alone may not be enough if users never leave Google’s search results page. Publishers also need to master AI Overview optimization and understand how to make the most of remaining click opportunities.

Higgerson notes:

“Google doesn’t give us a manual on how to do it. We have to run tests and optimise copy in a way that doesn’t damage the primary purpose of the content.”

Another path that’s emerging is content licensing. Following News Corp and The Atlantic partnering with OpenAI, more publishers are exploring direct licensing relationships. These deals typically provide upfront payments and ongoing royalties for content usage in AI training, though terms remain confidential.

What We Don’t Know

There are still many uncertainties. The long-term trajectory of AI Mode, for example, could alter current patterns.

AI Mode

Google’s AI Mode may pose an even bigger threat than AI Overviews. This new interface displays search results in a conversational format instead of 10 blue links. Searchers have a back-and-forth with AI, with occasional reference links thrown in.

For publishers already struggling with AI-powered overviews, AI Mode could wipe out the rest of their traffic.

International Impact

The international effects outside English-language markets remain unmeasured. Since AI Overviews are available in over 200 countries and 40 languages, the impact likely varies by market. Factors like cultural differences in search behavior, language complexity, local competition dynamics, and varying digital literacy levels could lead to vastly different outcomes.

Most current research focuses on English-language markets in developed economies.

Content Creation

The feedback loop between AI Overviews and content creation could reshape what content gets produced and how information flows online.

If publishers stop creating certain types of content due to traffic losses, will AI Overview quality suffer as training data becomes stale?

Looking Ahead: Expanded AI Features

Google intends to continue expanding AI features despite mounting publisher concerns and legal challenges.

The company’s roadmap includes AI Mode international expansion and enhanced interactive features, including voice-activated AI conversations and multi-turn query refinement. Publishers should prepare for continued evolution rather than expecting stability in search traffic patterns.

Regulatory intervention may force greater transparency in the coming months. The Independent Publishers Alliance’s EU complaint requests detailed impact assessments and content usage documentation.

These proceedings could establish precedents affecting how AI systems can use publisher content.

Final Thoughts

The question isn’t whether AI Overviews affect traffic. Evidence overwhelmingly confirms they do. The question is how publishers adapt business models while maintaining sustainable operations.

The web is at a turning point, where the core agreement is being rewritten by the platforms that once promoted the open internet. Publishers who don’t acknowledge this change are jeopardizing their relevance in an AI-driven future.

Those who understand the impact, invest in brand building, and diversify traffic sources will be best positioned for success.

More Resources:

Featured Image: Roman Samborskyi/Shutterstock

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Sep 29 2025
Black Friday Strategies For 2025: Learning From Last Year’s Winning Tactics via @sejournal, @gregjarboe

Black Friday 2024 rewrote the playbook for holiday retail, setting new sales records, ushering in mobile-first shopping, and unleashing bold, creative campaigns from leading brands. With the 2025 planning window about to close, brands must analyze the critical data, emerging trends, and strategic lessons learned from last year to build effective campaigns that maximize reach, engagement, and revenue.

Below, discover the stats and strategies shaping this year’s Black Friday – and examine the innovative approaches of Amazon, Walmart, and Target to inspire your brand’s success.

Record-Breaking Sales: The New Holiday Landscape

Black Friday 2024 was nothing short of historic. U.S. online spending surged to $10.8 billion, marking a 10.2% increase over 2023, while global sales soared to $74.4 billion in just 24 hours – a year-over-year gain of 5%. Cyber Monday followed suit, hitting $13.3 billion in online sales, up $0.9 billion from the previous year, and driving the overall Cyber Week total to $241.4 billion.

This growth is driven by a combination of shifting consumer behaviors, expanded shopping timelines, and elevated digital experiences. But while overall spending is up, signals of caution in consumer sentiment suggest 2025 may see strong – if more moderate – expansion. According to NRF forecasts, holiday sales growth is expected to land between 2.7% and 3.7% this year, a step down from the boom in 2023–2024.

Key Data Highlights

  • 87.3 million U.S. consumers shopped online on Black Friday 2024.
  • 81.7 million visited physical stores, underscoring the persistent relevance of in-person shopping – even as online dominates.
  • Mobile purchases comprised 69% of global Black Friday spending and 57% on Cyber Monday.
  • Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) spending hit $686 million on Black Friday alone and $18.2 billion for the season, up nearly 9% year-over-year.

Market Trends: The Era Of Mobile, Social Video, And Early Shopping

Mobile-First Shopping

Digital’s dominance was overwhelming in 2024. The majority of Black Friday’s action has shifted to mobile devices, forcing brands to rethink the digital shopping experience from the ground up. Mobile optimization is no longer optional – every touchpoint, from landing pages to checkout, must be frictionless and designed for mobile screens.

The Rise Of Social Video And Live Commerce

Social video emerged as one of the most compelling drivers of traffic and conversion. Short-form, vertical video formats – think Instagram Reels, TikTok, and YouTube Shorts –proved highly effective at reaching mobile-first audiences. Leading brands leaned into shoppable videos, influencer partnerships, and real-time live shopping events to create urgency and authentic engagement.

Strategic tactics include:

  • Leveraging in-app shopping directly from video content.
  • Integrating polls, quizzes, and interactive features.
  • Harnessing influencer and user-generated content (UGC) for social proof.
  • Hosting live streams to humanize the brand and create urgency.

Extended Promotions: The Multi-Week Holiday

Holiday shopping is no longer a one-day rush. In 2024, nearly two-thirds of consumers started shopping before Black Friday, with many beginning as early as June or August. The trend towards extended promotional periods means that brands must capture attention early and sustain momentum through Cyber Week rather than concentrating efforts on a single moment.

Supporting data:

  • 32% of shoppers planned to start between July and October.
  • 92% researched products well in advance of the holidays.

Changing Consumer Behaviors: Caution, Value, And Big-Ticket Shopping

While online spending and average order values climbed in 2024, consumer caution emerged. Economic uncertainty, inflation, and tariffs are driving buyers to hunt for authentic deals, focus on higher-value purchases when deep discounts are available, and rely on BNPL options for larger buys.

  • 75% of consumers say they’ll spend the same or more in 2025, but discretionary categories like apparel are cooling, with higher growth forecasted for electronics, toys, and experiences.
  • Toys experienced a 680% surge in Cyber Monday sales compared to October averages.

Generational Divide

While Millennials, Gen X, and Boomers are poised to maintain or boost their spend, Gen Z may pull back due to heightened economic pressures. Brands must refine their segmentation and message accordingly.

The Black Friday Campaigns: Amazon, Walmart, And Target

Some of the most valuable lessons for 2025 come directly from the creative marketing strategies deployed by major retailers.

Amazon: Storytelling, Discovery, And 5-Star Ratings

Amazon’s “5-Star Theatre” campaign, starring Adam Driver, exemplified the move away from pure price messaging. Instead, it drew shoppers into a narrative of product discovery and elevated everyday products via dramatic storytelling.

Emphasizing the expansive selection and the importance of customer reviews, Amazon positioned itself as the ultimate holiday shopping destination – not just a place for deals, but a one-stop discovery platform.

 Strategic features:

  • Extended 12-day promotional calendar, capturing early and late shoppers.
  • 60%+ of holiday sales through independent sellers, boosting marketplace growth.
  • Significant investments in AI-powered shopping assistants to enhance conversion rates.
  • Strong focus on mobile commerce, reporting nearly 55% of purchases from phones or tablets.

Walmart: Entertainment, “Deals Of Desire,” And Marketplace Growth

With its episodic “Deals of Desire” mini-series, Walmart turned deal-hunting into entertainment. The campaign’s soap opera vibe – filled with drama, humor, and nostalgia – created memorable experiences, using thematic storytelling and celebrity partnerships (e.g., “Mean Girls” reunion) to connect with broad audiences and drive both online and in-store traffic.

Notable tactics:

Target: Simplicity, Clarity, And Social Influence

Target’s “Black Friday Deals” campaign cut through ad clutter with a direct, transparent promise: great deals, presented simply and boldly. The campaign championed clarity, leveraging Target’s reputation for curated selections and an omnichannel approach (online, in-store, and convenient pickup options). Target also used exclusive merchandise, like a Taylor Swift book, to boost store traffic and foster intentional, budget-conscious purchases.

Critical success factors:

  • Large jump in in-store traffic (+17% year-over-year), even as basket sizes became more restrained.
  • Heavy investment in influencer marketing, with micro- and macro-influencers driving brand awareness.
  • Extended pre-event promotions (e.g., Circle Week) to sustain engagement, with deal-driven consumer behavior dominating non-promotional periods.

Tactical Playbook For 2025: Actionable Steps

Winning Black Friday in 2025 requires starting early and sustaining promotions well beyond the traditional shopping window.

Brands should launch teasers as early as October – or even sooner – and use countdown timers and flash deals to build urgency. Extending offers into Cyber Week ensures that cautious, value-driven buyers have multiple opportunities to engage, while pre-Black Friday content with deal countdowns primes audiences for action.

Success will hinge on mobile-first, social-driven experiences.

Every aspect of digital commerce, from site speed to checkout design, must be optimized for mobile. Social platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts should serve as the primary stage for vertical, shoppable video content. Interactive tools such as polls, quizzes, and live streams can deepen engagement, while keeping shoppers entertained and invested.

Influencer and user-generated content (UGC) will remain essential for authenticity and reach.

Integrated influencer campaigns – ranging from niche creators to broader personalities – can deliver credible product storytelling. At the same time, encouraging customers to share their own experiences with branded hashtags and spotlighting top submissions helps strengthen trust and build powerful social proof.

Artificial intelligence offers another critical edge.

AI-driven chatbots, personalized recommendation engines, and targeted messaging can create individualized shopping journeys that boost conversion. Personalized videos, demographic-based segmentation, and behavioral targeting allow campaigns to resonate across generations. Promoting BNPL options alongside transparent, value-focused deal messaging makes bigger-ticket items more accessible and appealing.

Finally, economic pressures mean brands must emphasize genuine value.

Shoppers in 2025 will reward authenticity, gravitating toward clear savings rather than inflated discounts. Careful inventory planning is crucial, with stronger focus on proven categories like electronics, toys, beauty, and experiences. Messaging should adapt to highlight budget-conscious solutions, experience-based gifts, and flexible payment options – all while maintaining trust and loyalty.

Market Outlook: Anticipated Shifts For Black Friday 2025

  • Sales growth should remain strong but more measured, with NRF projecting a 2.7 to 3.7% rise.
  • Mobile and social commerce will drive the lion’s share of purchases, especially among Gen Z and Millennials.
  • Value-driven and cautious shopping will dominate, shaping the communication and promotional tactics brands deploy.
  • Experiences over possessions: Expect spending on restaurants, travel, and entertainment gifts to grow, especially among Millennials and Gen X.
  • Consumers will shop early and over longer stretches, moving away from single-day shopping frenzies.

Conclusion: Building Your 2025 Black Friday Strategy

Black Friday is no longer a single point in time – it’s a season, a landscape, and an ongoing digital battleground. The strongest brands will start early, focus relentlessly on mobile and social video, and build authentic narratives that cut through the noise. By learning from the dramatic successes (and stumbles) of Amazon, Walmart, and Target – while harnessing AI, influencer power, and real-time interactivity – brands can not only capture sales but foster lasting loyalty and multi-channel engagement.

Data-driven, creative, and mobile-first strategies will be the signature of Black Friday 2025’s winners. Start planning now and let the lessons of 2024’s record-breaking weekend power your next campaign.

More Resources:

Featured Image: Roman Samborskyi/Shutterstock

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