Apr 9 2026
Mustafa Suleyman: AI development won’t hit a wall anytime soon—here’s why

We evolved for a linear world. If you walk for an hour, you cover a certain distance. Walk for two hours and you cover double that distance. This intuition served us well on the savannah. But it catastrophically fails when confronting AI and the core exponential trends at its heart.

From the time I began work on AI in 2010 to now, the amount of training data that goes into frontier AI models has grown by a staggering 1 trillion times—from roughly 10¹⁴ flops (floating-point operations‚ the core unit of computation) for early systems to over 10²⁶ flops for today’s largest models. This is an explosion. Everything else in AI follows from this fact.

The skeptics keep predicting walls. And they keep being wrong in the face of this epic generational compute ramp. Often, they point out that Moore’s Law is slowing. They also mention a lack of data, or they cite limitations on energy.

But when you look at the combined forces driving this revolution, the exponential trend seems quite predictable. To understand why, it’s worth looking at the complex and fast-moving reality beneath the headlines.

Think of AI training as a room full of people working calculators. For years, adding computational power meant adding more people with calculators to that room. Much of the time those workers sat idle, drumming their fingers on desks, waiting for the numbers to come through for their next calculation. Every pause was wasted potential. Today’s revolution goes beyond more and better calculators (although it delivers those); it is actually about ensuring that all those calculators never stop, and that they work together as one.

Three advances are now converging to enable this. First, the basic calculators got faster. Nvidia’s chips have delivered an over sevenfold increase in raw performance in just six years, from 312 teraflops in 2020 to 2,250 teraflops today. Our own Maia 200 chip, launched this January, delivers 30% better performance per dollar than any other hardware in our fleet. Second, the numbers arrive faster thanks to a technology called HBM, or high bandwidth memory, which stacks chips vertically like tiny skyscrapers; the latest generation, HBM3, triples the bandwidth of its predecessor, feeding data to processors fast enough to keep them busy all the time. Third, the room of people with calculators became an office and then a whole campus or city. Technologies like NVLink and InfiniBand connect hundreds of thousands of GPUs into warehouse-size supercomputers that function as single cognitive entities. A few years ago this was impossible.

These gains all come together to deliver dramatically more compute. Where training a language model took 167 minutes on eight GPUs in 2020, it now takes under four minutes on equivalent modern hardware. To put this in perspective: Moore’s Law would predict only about a 5x improvement over this period. We saw 50x. We’ve gone from two GPUs training AlexNet, the image recognition model that kicked off the modern boom in deep learning in 2012, to over 100,000 GPUs in today’s largest clusters, each one individually far more powerful than its predecessors.

Then there’s the revolution in software. Research from Epoch AI suggests that the compute required to reach a fixed performance level halves approximately every eight months, much faster than the traditional 18-to-24-month doubling of Moore’s Law. The costs of serving some recent models have collapsed by a factor of up to 900 on an annualized basis. AI is becoming radically cheaper to deploy.

The numbers for the near future are just as staggering. Consider that leading labs are growing capacity at nearly 4x annually. Since 2020, the compute used to train frontier models has grown 5x every year. Global AI-relevant compute is forecast to hit 100 million H100-equivalents by 2027, a tenfold increase in three years. Put all this together and we’re looking at something like another 1,000x in effective compute by the end of 2028. It’s plausible that by 2030 we’ll bring an additional 200 gigawatts of compute online every year—akin to the peak energy use of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy put together.

What does all this get us? I believe it will drive the transition from chatbots to nearly human-level agents—semiautonomous systems capable of writing code for days, carrying out weeks- and months-long projects, making calls, negotiating contracts, managing logistics. Forget basic assistants that answer questions. Think teams of AI workers that deliberate, collaborate, and execute. Right now we’re only in the foothills of this transition, and the implications stretch far beyond tech. Every industry built on cognitive work will be transformed.

The obvious constraint here is energy. A single refrigerator-size AI rack consumes 120 kilowatts, equivalent to 100 homes. But this hunger collides with another exponential: Solar costs have fallen by a factor of nearly 100 over 50 years; battery prices have dropped 97% over three decades. There is a pathway to clean scaling coming into view.

The capital is deployed. The engineering is delivering. The $100 billion clusters, the 10-gigawatt power draws, the warehouse-scale supercomputers … these are no longer science fiction. Ground is being broken for these projects now across the US and the world. As a result, we are heading toward true cognitive abundance. At Microsoft AI, this is the world our superintelligence lab is planning for and building.

Skeptics accustomed to a linear world will continue predicting diminishing returns. They will continue being surprised. The compute explosion is the technological story of our time, full stop. And it is still only just beginning.

Mustafa Suleyman is CEO of Microsoft AI.

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Apr 1 2026
AI benchmarks are broken. Here’s what we need instead.

For decades, artificial intelligence has been evaluated through the question of whether machines outperform humans. From chess to advanced math, from coding to essay writing, the performance of AI models and applications is tested against that of individual humans completing tasks. 

This framing is seductive: An AI vs. human comparison on isolated problems with clear right or wrong answers is easy to standardize, compare, and optimize. It generates rankings and headlines. 

But there’s a problem: AI is almost never used in the way it is benchmarked. Although   researchers and industry have started to improve benchmarking by moving beyond static tests to more dynamic evaluation methods, these  innovations resolve only part of the issue. That’s because they still evaluate AI’s performance outside the human teams and organizational workflows where its real-world performance ultimately unfolds. 

While AI is evaluated at the task level in a vacuum, it is used in messy, complex environments where it usually interacts with more than one person. Its performance (or lack thereof) emerges only over extended periods of use. This misalignment leaves us misunderstanding AI’s capabilities, overlooking systemic risks, and misjudging its economic and social consequences.

To mitigate this, it’s time to shift from narrow methods to benchmarks that assess how AI systems perform over longer time horizons within human teams, workflows, and organizations. I have studied real-world AI deployment since 2022 in small businesses and health, humanitarian, nonprofit, and higher-education organizations in the UK, the United States, and Asia, as well as within leading AI design ecosystems in London and Silicon Valley. I propose a different approach, which I call HAIC benchmarks—Human–AI, Context-Specific Evaluation.

What happens when AI fails 

For governments and businesses, AI benchmark scores appear more objective than vendor claims. They’re a critical part of determining whether an AI model or application is “good enough” for real-world deployment. Imagine an AI model that achieves impressive technical scores on the most cutting-edge benchmarks—98% accuracy, groundbreaking speed, compelling outputs. On the strength of these results, organizations may decide to adopt the model, committing sizable financial and technical resources to purchasing and integrating it. 

But then, once it’s adopted, the gap between benchmark and real-world performance quickly becomes visible. For example, take the swathe of FDA-approved AI models that can read medical scans faster and more accurately than an expert radiologist. In the radiology units of hospitals from the heart of California to the outskirts of London, I witnessed staff using highly ranked radiology AI applications. Repeatedly, it took them extra time to interpret AI’s outputs alongside hospital-specific reporting standards and nation-specific regulatory requirements. What appeared as a productivity-enhancing AI tool when tested in a vacuum introduced delays in practice. 

It soon became clear that the benchmark tests on which medical AI models are assessed do not capture how medical decisions are actually made. Hospitals rely on multidisciplinary teams—radiologists, oncologists, physicists, nurses—who jointly review patients. Treatment planning rarely hinges on a static decision; it evolves as new information emerges over days or weeks. Decisions often arise through constructive debate and trade-offs between professional standards, patient preferences, and the shared goal of long-term patient well-being. No wonder even highly scored AI models struggle to deliver the promised performance once they encounter the complex, collaborative processes of real clinical care.

The same pattern emerges in my research across other sectors: When embedded within real-world work environments, even AI models that perform brilliantly on standardized tests don’t perform as promised. 

When high benchmark scores fail to translate into real-world performance, even the most highly scored AI is soon abandoned to what I call the “AI graveyard.” The costs are significant: Time, effort and money end up being wasted. And over time, repeated experiences like this erode organizational confidence in AI and—in critical settings such as health—may erode broader public trust in the technology as well. 

When current benchmarks provide only a partial and potentially misleading signal of an AI model’s readiness for real-world use, this creates regulatory blind spots: Oversight is shaped by metrics that do not reflect reality. It also leaves organizations and governments to shoulder the risks of testing AI in sensitive real-world settings, often with limited resources and support. 

How to build better tests 

To close the gap between benchmark and real-world performance, we must pay attention to the actual conditions in which AI models will be used. The critical questions: Can AI function as a productive participant within human teams? And can it generate sustained, collective value? 

Through my research on AI deployment across multiple sectors, I have seen a number of organizations already moving—deliberately and experimentally—toward the HAIC benchmarks I favor. 

HAIC benchmarks reframe current benchmarking in four ways: 

1.     From individual and single-task performance to team and workflow performance (shifting the unit of analysis)

2.     From one-off testing with right/wrong answers to long-term impacts (expanding the time horizon)

3.     From correctness and speed to organizational outcomes, coordination quality, and error detectability (expanding outcome measures)

4.     From isolated outputs to upstream and downstream consequences (system effects)

Across the organizations where this approach has emerged and started to be applied, the first step is shifting the unit of analysis. 

For example, in one UK hospital system in the period 2021–2024, the question expanded from whether a medical AI application improves diagnostic accuracy to how the presence of AI within the hospital’s multidisciplinary teams affects not only accuracy but also coordination and deliberation. The hospital specifically assessed coordination and deliberation in human teams using and not using AI. Multiple stakeholders (within and outside the hospital) decided on metrics like how AI influences collective reasoning, whether it surfaces overlooked considerations, whether it strengthens or weakens coordination, and whether it changes established risk and compliance practices. 

This shift is fundamental. It matters a lot in high-stakes contexts where system-level effects matter more than task-level accuracy. It also matters for the economy. It may help recalibrate inflated expectations of sweeping productivity gains that are so far predicated largely on the promise of improving individual task performance. 

Once that foundation is set, HAIC benchmarking can begin to take on the element of time. 

Today’s benchmarks resemble school exams—one-off, standardized tests of accuracy. But real professional competence is assessed differently. Junior doctors and lawyers are evaluated continuously inside real workflows, under supervision, with feedback loops and accountability structures. Performance is judged over time and in a specific context, because competence is relational. If AI systems are meant to operate alongside professionals, their impact should be judged longitudinally, reflecting how performance unfolds over repeated interactions. 

I saw this aspect of HAIC applied in one of my humanitarian-sector case studies. Over 18 months, an AI system was evaluated within real workflows, with particular attention to how detectable its errors were—that is, how easily human teams could identify and correct them. This long-term “record of error detectability” meant the organizations involved could design and test context-specific guardrails to promote trust in the system, despite the inevitability of occasional AI mistakes.

A longer time horizon also makes visible the system-level consequences that short-term benchmarks miss. An AI application may outperform a single doctor on a narrow diagnostic task yet fail to improve multidisciplinary decision-making. Worse, it may introduce systemic distortions: anchoring teams too early in plausible but incomplete answers, adding to people’s  cognitive workloads, or generating downstream inefficiencies that offset any speed or efficiency gains at the point of the AI’s use. These knock-on effects—often invisible to current benchmarks—are central to understanding real impact. 

The HAIC approach, admittedly promises to make benchmarking more complex, resource-intensive, and harder to standardize. But continuing to evaluate AI in sanitized conditions detached from the world of work will leave us misunderstanding what it truly can and cannot do for us. To deploy AI responsibly in real-world settings, we must measure what actually matters: not just what a model can do alone, but what it enables—or undermines—when humans and teams in the real world work with it.

 Angela Aristidou is a professor at University College London and a faculty fellow at the Stanford Digital Economy Lab and the Stanford Human-Centered AI Institute. She speaks, writes, and advises about the real-life deployment of artificial-intelligence tools for public good.

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Mar 26 2026
The AI Hype Index: AI goes to war

AI is at war. Anthropic and the Pentagon feuded over how to weaponize Anthropic’s AI model Claude; then OpenAI swept the Pentagon off its feet with an “opportunistic and sloppy” deal. Users quit ChatGPT in droves. People marched through London in the biggest protest against AI to date. If you’re keeping score, Anthropic—the company founded to be ethical—is now turbocharging US strikes on Iran. 

On the lighter side, AI agents are now going viral online. OpenAI hired the creator of OpenClaw, a popular AI agent. Meta snapped up Moltbook, where AI agents seem to ponder their own existence and invent new religions like Crustafarianism. And on RentAHuman, bots are hiring people to deliver CBD gummies. The future isn’t AI taking your job. It’s AI becoming your boss and finding God.

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Feb 12 2026
Is a secure AI assistant possible?

<div data-chronoton-summary="

Risky business of AI assistants OpenClaw, a viral tool created by independent engineer Peter Steinberger, allows users to create personalized AI assistants. Security experts are alarmed by its vulnerabilities, with even the Chinese government issuing warnings about the risks.

The prompt injection threat Tools like OpenClaw have many vulnerabilities, but the one experts are most worried about its prompt injection. Unlike conventional hacking, prompt injection tricks an LLM by embedding malicious text in emails or websites the AI reads.

No silver bullet for security Researchers are exploring multiple defense strategies: training LLMs to ignore injections, using detector LLMs to screen inputs, and creating policies that restrict harmful outputs. The fundamental challenge remains balancing utility with security in AI assistants.

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AI agents are a risky business. Even when stuck inside the chatbox window, LLMs will make mistakes and behave badly. Once they have tools that they can use to interact with the outside world, such as web browsers and email addresses, the consequences of those mistakes become far more serious.

That might explain why the first breakthrough LLM personal assistant came not from one of the major AI labs, which have to worry about reputation and liability, but from an independent software engineer, Peter Steinberger. In November of 2025, Steinberger uploaded his tool, now called OpenClaw, to GitHub, and in late January the project went viral.

OpenClaw harnesses existing LLMs to let users create their own bespoke assistants. For some users, this means handing over reams of personal data, from years of emails to the contents of their hard drive. That has security experts thoroughly freaked out. The risks posed by OpenClaw are so extensive that it would probably take someone the better part of a week to read all of the security blog posts on it that have cropped up in the past few weeks. The Chinese government took the step of issuing a public warning about OpenClaw’s security vulnerabilities.

In response to these concerns, Steinberger posted on X that nontechnical people should not use the software. (He did not respond to a request for comment for this article.) But there’s a clear appetite for what OpenClaw is offering, and it’s not limited to people who can run their own software security audits. Any AI companies that hope to get in on the personal assistant business will need to figure out how to build a system that will keep users’ data safe and secure. To do so, they’ll need to borrow approaches from the cutting edge of agent security research.

Risk management

OpenClaw is, in essence, a mecha suit for LLMs. Users can choose any LLM they like to act as the pilot; that LLM then gains access to improved memory capabilities and the ability to set itself tasks that it repeats on a regular cadence. Unlike the agentic offerings from the major AI companies, OpenClaw agents are meant to be on 24-7, and users can communicate with them using WhatsApp or other messaging apps. That means they can act like a superpowered personal assistant who wakes you each morning with a personalized to-do list, plans vacations while you work, and spins up new apps in its spare time.

But all that power has consequences. If you want your AI personal assistant to manage your inbox, then you need to give it access to your email—and all the sensitive information contained there. If you want it to make purchases on your behalf, you need to give it your credit card info. And if you want it to do tasks on your computer, such as writing code, it needs some access to your local files. 

There are a few ways this can go wrong. The first is that the AI assistant might make a mistake, as when a user’s Google Antigravity coding agent reportedly wiped his entire hard drive. The second is that someone might gain access to the agent using conventional hacking tools and use it to either extract sensitive data or run malicious code. In the weeks since OpenClaw went viral, security researchers have demonstrated numerous such vulnerabilities that put security-naïve users at risk.

Both of these dangers can be managed: Some users are choosing to run their OpenClaw agents on separate computers or in the cloud, which protects data on their hard drives from being erased, and other vulnerabilities could be fixed using tried-and-true security approaches.

But the experts I spoke to for this article were focused on a much more insidious security risk known as prompt injection. Prompt injection is effectively LLM hijacking: Simply by posting malicious text or images on a website that an LLM might peruse, or sending them to an inbox that an LLM reads, attackers can bend it to their will.

And if that LLM has access to any of its user’s private information, the consequences could be dire. “Using something like OpenClaw is like giving your wallet to a stranger in the street,” says Nicolas Papernot, a professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Toronto. Whether or not the major AI companies can feel comfortable offering personal assistants may come down to the quality of the defenses that they can muster against such attacks.

It’s important to note here that prompt injection has not yet caused any catastrophes, or at least none that have been publicly reported. But now that there are likely hundreds of thousands of OpenClaw agents buzzing around the internet, prompt injection might start to look like a much more appealing strategy for cybercriminals. “Tools like this are incentivizing malicious actors to attack a much broader population,” Papernot says. 

Building guardrails

The term “prompt injection” was coined by the popular LLM blogger Simon Willison in 2022, a couple of months before ChatGPT was released. Even back then, it was possible to discern that LLMs would introduce a completely new type of security vulnerability once they came into widespread use. LLMs can’t tell apart the instructions that they receive from users and the data that they use to carry out those instructions, such as emails and web search results—to an LLM, they’re all just text. So if an attacker embeds a few sentences in an email and the LLM mistakes them for an instruction from its user, the attacker can get the LLM to do anything it wants.

Prompt injection is a tough problem, and it doesn’t seem to be going away anytime soon. “We don’t really have a silver-bullet defense right now,” says Dawn Song, a professor of computer science at UC Berkeley. But there’s a robust academic community working on the problem, and they’ve come up with strategies that could eventually make AI personal assistants safe.

Technically speaking, it is possible to use OpenClaw today without risking prompt injection: Just don’t connect it to the internet. But restricting OpenClaw from reading your emails, managing your calendar, and doing online research defeats much of the purpose of using an AI assistant. The trick of protecting against prompt injection is to prevent the LLM from responding to hijacking attempts while still giving it room to do its job.

One strategy is to train the LLM to ignore prompt injections. A major part of the LLM development process, called post-training, involves taking a model that knows how to produce realistic text and turning it into a useful assistant by “rewarding” it for answering questions appropriately and “punishing” it when it fails to do so. These rewards and punishments are metaphorical, but the LLM learns from them as an animal would. Using this process, it’s possible to train an LLM not to respond to specific examples of prompt injection.

But there’s a balance: Train an LLM to reject injected commands too enthusiastically, and it might also start to reject legitimate requests from the user. And because there’s a fundamental element of randomness in LLM behavior, even an LLM that has been very effectively trained to resist prompt injection will likely still slip up every once in a while.

Another approach involves halting the prompt injection attack before it ever reaches the LLM. Typically, this involves using a specialized detector LLM to determine whether or not the data being sent to the original LLM contains any prompt injections. In a recent study, however, even the best-performing detector completely failed to pick up on certain categories of prompt injection attack.

The third strategy is more complicated. Rather than controlling the inputs to an LLM by detecting whether or not they contain a prompt injection, the goal is to formulate a policy that guides the LLM’s outputs—i.e., its behaviors—and prevents it from doing anything harmful. Some defenses in this vein are quite simple: If an LLM is allowed to email only a few pre-approved addresses, for example, then it definitely won’t send its user’s credit card information to an attacker. But such a policy would prevent the LLM from completing many useful tasks, such as researching and reaching out to potential professional contacts on behalf of its user.

“The challenge is how to accurately define those policies,” says Neil Gong, a professor of electrical and computer engineering at Duke University. “It’s a trade-off between utility and security.”

On a larger scale, the entire agentic world is wrestling with that trade-off: At what point will agents be secure enough to be useful? Experts disagree. Song, whose startup, Virtue AI, makes an agent security platform, says she thinks it’s possible to safely deploy an AI personal assistant now. But Gong says, “We’re not there yet.” 

Even if AI agents can’t yet be entirely protected against prompt injection, there are certainly ways to mitigate the risks. And it’s possible that some of those techniques could be implemented in OpenClaw. Last week, at the inaugural ClawCon event in San Francisco, Steinberger announced that he’d brought a security person on board to work on the tool.

As of now, OpenClaw remains vulnerable, though that hasn’t dissuaded its multitude of enthusiastic users. George Pickett, a volunteer maintainer of the OpenGlaw GitHub repository and a fan of the tool, says he’s taken some security measures to keep himself safe while using it: He runs it in the cloud, so that he doesn’t have to worry about accidentally deleting his hard drive, and he’s put mechanisms in place to ensure that no one else can connect to his assistant.

But he hasn’t taken any specific actions to prevent prompt injection. He’s aware of the risk but says he hasn’t yet seen any reports of it happening with OpenClaw. “Maybe my perspective is a stupid way to look at it, but it’s unlikely that I’ll be the first one to be hacked,” he says.

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Jan 30 2026
The AI Hype Index: Grok makes porn, and Claude Code nails your job

Everyone is panicking because AI is very bad; everyone is panicking because AI is very good. It’s just that you never know which one you’re going to get. Grok is a pornography machine. Claude Code can do anything from building websites to reading your MRI. So of course Gen Z is spooked by what this means for jobs. Unnerving new research says AI is going to have a seismic impact on the labor market this year.

If you want to get a handle on all that, don’t expect any help from the AI companies—they’re turning on each other like it’s the last act in a zombie movie. Meta’s former chief AI scientist, Yann LeCun, is spilling tea, while Big Tech’s messiest exes, Elon Musk and OpenAI, are about to go to trial. Grab your popcorn.

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Jan 22 2026
Everyone wants AI sovereignty. No one can truly have it.

Governments plan to pour $1.3 trillion into AI infrastructure by 2030 to invest in “sovereign AI,” with the premise being that countries should be in control of their own AI capabilities. The funds include financing for domestic data centers, locally trained models, independent supply chains, and national talent pipelines. This is a response to real shocks: covid-era supply chain breakdowns, rising geopolitical tensions, and the war in Ukraine.  

But the pursuit of absolute autonomy is running into reality. AI supply chains are irreducibly global: Chips are designed in the US and manufactured in East Asia; models are trained on data sets drawn from multiple countries; applications are deployed across dozens of jurisdictions.  

If sovereignty is to remain meaningful, it must shift from a defensive model of self-reliance to a vision that emphasizes the concept of orchestration, balancing national autonomy with strategic partnership. 

Why infrastructure-first strategies hit walls 

A November survey by Accenture found that 62% of European organizations are now seeking sovereign AI solutions, driven primarily by geopolitical anxiety rather than technical necessity. That figure rises to 80% in Denmark and 72% in Germany. The European Union has appointed its first Commissioner for Tech Sovereignty. 

This year, $475 billion is flowing into AI data centers globally. In the United States, AI data centers accounted for roughly one-fifth of GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025. But the obstacle for other nations hoping to follow suit isn’t just money. It’s energy and physics. Global data center capacity is projected to hit 130 gigawatts by 2030, and for every $1 billion spent on these facilities, $125 million is needed for electricity networks. More than $750 billion in planned investment is already facing grid delays. 

And it’s also talent. Researchers and entrepreneurs are mobile, drawn to ecosystems with access to capital, competitive wages, and rapid innovation cycles. Infrastructure alone won’t attract or retain world-class talent.  

What works: An orchestrated sovereignty

What nations need isn’t sovereignty through isolation but through specialization and orchestration. This means choosing which capabilities you build, which you pursue through partnership, and where you can genuinely lead in shaping the global AI landscape. 

The most successful AI strategies don’t try to replicate Silicon Valley; they identify specific advantages and build partnerships around them. 

Singapore offers a model. Rather than seeking to duplicate massive infrastructure, it invested in governance frameworks, digital-identity platforms, and applications of AI in logistics and finance, areas where it can realistically compete. 

Israel shows a different path. Its strength lies in a dense network of startups and military-adjacent research institutions delivering outsize influence despite the country’s small size. 

South Korea is instructive too. While it has national champions like Samsung and Naver, these firms still partner with Microsoft and Nvidia on infrastructure. That’s deliberate collaboration reflecting strategic oversight, not dependence.  

Even China, despite its scale and ambition, cannot secure full-stack autonomy. Its reliance on global research networks and on foreign lithography equipment, such as extreme ultraviolet systems needed to manufacture advanced chips and GPU architectures, shows the limits of techno-nationalism. 

The pattern is clear: Nations that specialize and partner strategically can outperform those trying to do everything alone. 

Three ways to align ambition with reality 

1.  Measure added value, not inputs.  

Sovereignty isn’t how many petaflops you own. It’s how many lives you improve and how fast the economy grows. Real sovereignty is the ability to innovate in support of national priorities such as productivity, resilience, and sustainability while maintaining freedom to shape governance and standards.  

Nations should track the use of AI in health care and monitor how the technology’s adoption correlates with manufacturing productivity, patent citations, and international research collaborations. The goal is to ensure that AI ecosystems generate inclusive and lasting economic and social value.  

2. Cultivate a strong AI innovation ecosystem. 

Build infrastructure, but also build the ecosystem around it: research institutions, technical education, entrepreneurship support, and public-private talent development. Infrastructure without skilled talent and vibrant networks cannot deliver a lasting competitive advantage.   

3. Build global partnerships.  

Strategic partnerships enable nations to pool resources, lower infrastructure costs, and access complementary expertise. Singapore’s work with global cloud providers and the EU’s collaborative research programs show how nations advance capabilities faster through partnership than through isolation. Rather than competing to set dominant standards, nations should collaborate on interoperable frameworks for transparency, safety, and accountability.  

What’s at stake 

Overinvesting in independence fragments markets and slows cross-border innovation, which is the foundation of AI progress. When strategies focus too narrowly on control, they sacrifice the agility needed to compete. 

The cost of getting this wrong isn’t just wasted capital—it’s a decade of falling behind. Nations that double down on infrastructure-first strategies risk ending up with expensive data centers running yesterday’s models, while competitors that choose strategic partnerships iterate faster, attract better talent, and shape the standards that matter. 

The winners will be those who define sovereignty not as separation, but as participation plus leadership—choosing who they depend on, where they build, and which global rules they shape. Strategic interdependence may feel less satisfying than independence, but it’s real, it is achievable, and it will separate the leaders from the followers over the next decade. 

The age of intelligent systems demands intelligent strategies—ones that measure success not by infrastructure owned, but by problems solved. Nations that embrace this shift won’t just participate in the AI economy; they’ll shape it. That’s sovereignty worth pursuing. 

Cathy Li is head of the Centre for AI Excellence at the World Economic Forum.

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Dec 5 2025
How AI is uncovering hidden geothermal energy resources

Sometimes geothermal hot spots are obvious, marked by geysers and hot springs on the planet’s surface. But in other places, they’re obscured thousands of feet underground. Now AI could help uncover these hidden pockets of potential power.

A startup company called Zanskar announced today that it’s used AI and other advanced computational methods to uncover a blind geothermal system—meaning there aren’t signs of it on the surface—in the western Nevada desert. The company says it’s the first blind system that’s been identified and confirmed to be a commercial prospect in over 30 years. 

Historically, finding new sites for geothermal power was a matter of brute force. Companies spent a lot of time and money drilling deep wells, looking for places where it made sense to build a plant.

Zanskar’s approach is more precise. With advancements in AI, the company aims to “solve this problem that had been unsolvable for decades, and go and finally find those resources and prove that they’re way bigger than previously thought,” says Carl Hoiland, the company’s cofounder and CEO.  

To support a successful geothermal power plant, a site needs high temperatures at an accessible depth and space for fluid to move through the rock and deliver heat. In the case of the new site, which the company calls Big Blind, the prize is a reservoir that reaches 250 °F at about 2,700 feet below the surface.

As electricity demand rises around the world, geothermal systems like this one could provide a source of constant power without emitting the greenhouse gases that cause climate change. 

The company has used its technology to identify many potential hot spots. “We have dozens of sites that look just like this,” says Joel Edwards, Zanskar’s cofounder and CTO. But for Big Blind, the team has done the fieldwork to confirm its model’s predictions.

The first step to identifying a new site is to use regional AI models to search large areas. The team trains models on known hot spots and on simulations it creates. Then it feeds in geological, satellite, and other types of data, including information about fault lines. The models can then predict where potential hot spots might be.

One strength of using AI for this task is that it can handle the immense complexity of the information at hand. “If there’s something learnable in the earth, even if it’s a very complex phenomenon that’s hard for us humans to understand, neural nets are capable of learning that, if given enough data,” Hoiland says. 

Once models identify a potential hot spot, a field crew heads to the site, which might be roughly 100 square miles or so, and collects additional information through techniques that include drilling shallow holes to look for elevated underground temperatures.

In the case of Big Blind, this prospecting information gave the company enough confidence to purchase a federal lease, allowing it to develop a geothermal plant. With that lease secured, the team returned with large drill rigs and drilled thousands of feet down in July and August. The workers found the hot, permeable rock they expected.

Next they must secure permits to build and connect to the grid and line up the investments needed to build the plant. The team will also continue testing at the site, including long-term testing to track heat and water flow.

“There’s a tremendous need for methodology that can look for large-scale features,” says John McLennan, technical lead for resource management at Utah FORGE, a national lab field site for geothermal energy funded by the US Department of Energy. The new discovery is “promising,” McLennan adds.

Big Blind is Zanskar’s first confirmed discovery that wasn’t previously explored or developed, but the company has used its tools for other geothermal exploration projects. Earlier this year, it announced a discovery at a site that had previously been explored by the industry but not developed. The company also purchased and revived a geothermal power plant in New Mexico.

And this could be just the beginning for Zanskar. As Edwards puts it, “This is the start of a wave of new, naturally occurring geothermal systems that will have enough heat in place to support power plants.”

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Nov 27 2025
The AI Hype Index: The people can’t get enough of AI slop

Separating AI reality from hyped-up fiction isn’t always easy. That’s why we’ve created the AI Hype Index—a simple, at-a-glance summary of everything you need to know about the state of the industry.

Last year, the fantasy author Joanna Maciejewska went viral (if such a thing is still possible on X) with a post saying “I want AI to do my laundry and dishes so that I can do art and writing, not for AI to do my art and writing so that I can do my laundry and dishes.” Clearly, it struck a chord with the disaffected masses.

Regrettably, 18 months after Maciejewska’s post, the entertainment industry insists that machines should make art and artists should do laundry. The streaming platform Disney+ has plans to let its users generate their own content from its intellectual property instead of, y’know, paying humans to make some new Star Wars or Marvel movies.

Elsewhere, it seems AI-generated music is resonating with a depressingly large audience, given that the AI band Breaking Rust has topped Billboard’s Country Digital Song Sales chart. If the people demand AI slop, who are we to deny them?

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Oct 30 2025
The AI Hype Index: Data centers’ neighbors are pivoting to power blackouts

Separating AI reality from hyped-up fiction isn’t always easy. That’s why we’ve created the AI Hype Index—a simple, at-a-glance summary of everything you need to know about the state of the industry.

Just about all businesses these days seem to be pivoting to AI, even when they don’t seem to know exactly why they’re investing in it—or even what it really does. “Optimization,” “scaling,” and “maximizing efficiency” are convenient buzzwords bandied about to describe what AI can achieve in theory, but for most of AI companies’ eager customers, the hundreds of billions of dollars they’re pumping into the industry aren’t adding up. And maybe they never will.

This month’s news doesn’t exactly cast the technology in a glowing light either. A bunch of NGOs and aid agencies are using AI models to generate images of fake suffering people to guilt their Instagram followers. AI translators are pumping out low-quality Wikipedia pages in the languages most vulnerable to going extinct. And thanks to the construction of new AI data centers, lots of neighborhoods living in their shadows are getting forced into their own sort of pivots—fighting back against the power blackouts and water shortages the data centers cause. How’s that for optimization?

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Sep 25 2025
The AI Hype Index: Cracking the chatbot code

Separating AI reality from hyped-up fiction isn’t always easy. That’s why we’ve created the AI Hype Index—a simple, at-a-glance summary of everything you need to know about the state of the industry.

Millions of us use chatbots every day, even though we don’t really know how they work or how using them affects us. In a bid to address this, the FTC recently launched an inquiry into how chatbots affect children and teenagers. Elsewhere, OpenAI has started to shed more light on what people are actually using ChatGPT for, and why it thinks its LLMs are so prone to making stuff up.

There’s still plenty we don’t know—but that isn’t stopping governments from forging ahead with AI projects. In the US, RFK Jr. is pushing his staffers to use ChatGPT, while Albania is using a chatbot for public contract procurement. Proceed with caution.

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